Vision Pro

[Beasho]

I haven't been using Chat GPT to edit my write ups but I like it.

What I did ask Chat GPT was how to make a surfboard, or explain in simple terms airfoil lift theory.  It's interesting when you can find errors.  It had decent advice on making surfboards but suggested it should weigh 25 lbs.  Bad Chat GPT!

Then with the airfoil theories it also had errors on the explanation.  Which comes back to why you have to know what you are asking it about.  Otherwise it can be off by 5% to 10% but I suspect those errors will go down. 

[Chan]

I've encountered similar experiences with generative AI. It brings me back to a previous post where a Visionpro reviewer expressed being "Utterly thunderstruck, and yet mildly underwhelmed." At times, the capabilities of AGI can seem like nothing more than an entertaining parlor trick. AND YET, there are moments when its impact feels truly monumental.  I edited Chatgpts edit of my edit on this one. 

[PonoBill]

I expect Oil is going to get more important, and more expensive as we quit burning it, though if geological hydrogen doesn't turn out to be the next cold fusion, the use of oil to make ammonia will collapse faster than coal for electricity--it's super easy and much cheaper to make ammonia (NH3) from hydrogen. You could do it in your kitchen (I don't recommend it), still using the Haber-Bosch high-temperature method without the petrochemical middleman.

When I commented that oil is dead, it's as a source of electrical generation. It gets lumped with "other" now. The fact that spurred my WTF moment is the current price for 550 watt bifacial PV panels--I can buy them for 208 bucks in modest quantity. When I bought 30 Sanyo 250W panels for my house in Maui 12 years ago I paid $40K for them--in 2010 dollars. Roughly three times the output (depending on how cleverly I mount them) for 15% of the price.

And a minor correction: When you consider the energy content of a barrel of oil you need to at least allow for Carnot efficiency, and Carnot efficiency is the theoretical best case for a heat engine. The actual efficiency, disregarding energy required to obtain, transport, and refine oil, is about 28% for anything other than direct heating. It should be feasible to calculate the total energy value of a barrel of oil, but it would depend on how and where it was used. In any sort of actual engine, it would probably be about 20% of your man-hour number. Still impressive, oil has been very, very good to us.

[tarquin]

There was a report on the news in France about solar panels and the huge increase in them recently. As Pono said they are producing a lot more than demand at the moment. The problem is a lot of them are very poor quality and end up in the rubbish pretty quickly. What's going to happen to these fields of solar panels that are popping up everywhere in 10 years time?
 I am doing some work on our house soon and have found a French company that makes solar panels that heat water as well. The heat absorbed to heat the water makes the panels a lot more efficient.

[PonoBill]

There was a report on the news in France about solar panels and the huge increase in them recently. As Pono said they are producing a lot more than demand at the moment. The problem is a lot of them are very poor quality and end up in the rubbish pretty quickly. What's going to happen to these fields of solar panels that are popping up everywhere in 10 years time?
 I am doing some work on our house soon and have found a French company that makes solar panels that heat water as well. The heat absorbed to heat the water makes the panels a lot more efficient.

That's been a good idea, and kind of obvious, for a long time. I thought about doing it myself as a modification. It seems once an idea takes hold in opposition to something so simple that it just dies. The problem with solar hot water is that it's plumbing, which solar installers don't do, and the efficiency and utility of the early systems (we have one at Ponohouse) is marginal. The original stuff used mechanical timers and a few temperature sensors to regulate operation. The timers weren't reliable, and too often the system would pump warm water to the collectors in the dark, which cools the water. Not ideal. They use electric water heaters as the backup, but the heaters are disabled during daylight hours because otherwise the water is already heated and the temperature regulators shut off the collectors.That can lead to a lot of cold showers--I can attest to that firsthand. There are other problems, but you get the drift. Of course, any reasonable micro-controlled system instead of stupid timers could overcome the issue, but by then solar installers were convinced that a few more (now inexpensive) panels to power a conventional heater made more sense than all that plumbing. My solar hot water system is now abandoned in place, as is the huge solar pool heater we installed a few years ago that suffered from the same issues. If I wasn't such a lazy twat I'd make an intelligent controller for the swimming pool heater at least. Instead, I don't use the pool (I guess I could use it as a cold plunge) and spend my time in the 80-degree ocean.

Worse yet, bifacial solar panels in ground mounts deliver power from the front and back from reflection--those designs are the darlings of the industry, sparking new approaches like vertical mounting in east-west orientation (I know, sounds stupid, but it works).

I've heard the rap about junky Chinese panels, it's like the rap about everything Chinese being substandard. It's propaganda (I'm old enough to remember "Cheap Japanese Junk"). I bought a pallet of Chinese panels before the tariffs made them expensive, and they are beautifully made. They produce more power than they should and are clearly well-constructed--they look better than the Japanese, Canadian, and US-made panels I've experimented with. I have two of them on a container for testing and six on top of my stupid RV project, where they have been performing faultlessly for years. I expect they'll be fine twenty years from now. The lifespan of solar panels is a wacky issue. No one really knows what it will be. The big commercial installations replace their panels frequently--not because they aren't working just fine, but because better and cheaper panels are available every year. If you have 10,000 250-watt panels in a huge field and you can double your system output by replacing them in the same mounts and the same wiring with 500-watt panels for a third of what the 250-watt panels originally cost what would you do? There's a thriving market for used 250w panels in the US. I can buy them for $30 each from a vendor (Santan Solar) or sometimes more or less free if you connect to the source. When 750 watt panels come out I expect to see lots of bifacial 500 watt panels for 30 bucks. Even at 208 bucks for 550 watt bifacial, PV is now $.37 per watt. Back when we could build 1000 megawatt nuke plants for 1.5 billion (we can't anymore) that was more than a buck per watt. Yes, it could run all night and only got refueled once a year (for millions of dollars, probably billions today), but it's a lot more than $.37. And we thought nuclear power would be too cheap to meter.

[PonoBill]

Back to the original topic (sorry admin), it looks like the backlash of Apple killing the EV and the substantial number of Vision Pros being returned before the return deadline is pounding Apple's stock a bit. I'm waiting for V2 or 3. Admin convinced me some time ago to spring for the top-of-the-line Meta goggles, which are gathering dust at my shop. That isn't a dig at Admin or Meta (well, maybe a little) but just a taste of living with rampant ADHD. I'm striving mightily to resist the urge to chase the new, new, and the bright and sparkly (oh look, a butterfly!!). I'm also certainly going to cancel my Cybertruck order in favor of my new, new PV and storage battery project. Diane is cautiously pleased--mostly because she suspects I'll wind up doing both.

My real motivation for ditching the Cybertruck reservation is I'm a little tired of getting V1 and seeing V2 is way better, and I'm very happy with my Model Y, which does everything I need, including pulling trailers when I have a load of junk for the dump, building materials to carry, or want to do a remote dirt bike adventure. I also really like camping in it, I doubt camping in the bed of the cybertruck will be nicer than lounging in the back of the Model Y with streaming video and climate control on tap, and the tent I bought that erects over the back to provide covered standing room.

And I confess, I like Admin's Rivian better.

[Admin]

This is my new EV.  It came two weeks ago and so far I only have three days on it.  Man, is it kicking my butt.  Even in Turbo, my hills are a major workout.  Turns out arms are not as strong as legs. Who knew?  So fun though, and challenging as well.  The articulating front end is so cool.  Here a couple of vids.  My goals align better with the first. 

[Dwight (DW)]

That thing looks fun!

[PonoBill]

That's pretty cool. You might recall I built an e-trike a long while ago after I had meniscus surgery and the doc said I should ride a stationary bike. He thought if I rode outside I'd be likely to fall and ruin his work. So I built a trike. A tadpole design, like yours, but foot and e-powered. No suspension, but as usual, way too much motor and battery (More Power!!). I did a century ride over Mt. Hood with it, and collected 4 warnings for speeding in Hood River. Two from the same cop, who was losing patience with me. That thing looks like fun. It also looks like it could use a bit more power and perhaps range. We can fix that if you're so inclined. I can't seem to find the old video of me hitting 48mph at Rowena Crest, but you probably remember it. Mine's gathering dust at the shop. I was probably gonna kill myself on it, and my knee healed. I've got a spare Alfine 8-speed internal hub to replace that silly derailleur or the Nu Vinci variable speed hub that's on my trike now. The Nu Vinci is gonna be toast if I keep using it on my trike. The trike is 1500 watts and the nuVinci is rated for something like 500, though I read somewhere they uprated them to 750 without making physical changes. I've also got a two-speed pedal bracket, it looks like that's a single-speed for the hand crank. I don't mind parting out my trike a bit, I doubt it will ever see daylight again.

[PonoBill]

Or if you're just interested in something roadworthy we could just get the beast running. Not a great idea though, drivers do thoughtless enough things to bikes they can see. Even with the big flag I put on my eTrike I had people turning in front of me daily.

[eastbound]

looks like a very nice machine
enjoy

[Admin]

The front end on this bike is really cool.  it is super active and it requires a lot of hip and torso to keep centered. It uses a Ride Engine kite harness and you need to clamp that thing down snug to make it all work.  I am loving it so far. 

On the Rivian side I'm interested to see what they introduce today.  supposed to be a lower priced crossover to compete with the Y.  Also interesting to hear the Internet go nuts over Apple purchase rumors. 

We are still completely completely stoked with our truck, but we really don't need a truck anymore so we'll probably sell that one and pick up the (full sized, 4 motor) SUV. That looks beautiful as well, and it will smell very new.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ThkbKAebkm4?feature=share

[PonoBill]

Ask anyone who shuttles with me, smell is critical in a vehicle.

[Admin]

Rivian R2 looks really good to my eyes.  Smart price and solid spec, and a bit less than expected starting at $45K before tax breaks.  The R3 is pretty sweet as well (for less, although later).  Both should smell great.

[PonoBill]

Very clever to claim and focus on the adventure/SUV/truck space. I think anyone making sedans will have a super tough time staying in business, even if China is somehow blocked. There's no reason a sub-200-mile EV sedan can't be made for less than $20K and still turn a profit. As with the current ICE market, the profit margin for sedans is slim and disappearing completely quickly. People are still whinging about EVs being unrepairable and taking too long to charge. Both claims are just monumentally stupid when you factor in day-to-day use (you get up in the morning and your battery is always full--no fueling) and zero maintenance. A new EV will cost about the same as three years of fuel and maintenance of an ICE car.

The space Rivian is carving out should remain profitable for a lot longer.