Author Topic: Retiring But where?  (Read 5942 times)

RideTheGlide

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Re: Retiring But where?
« Reply #75 on: March 12, 2019, 07:09:50 AM »
Thanks for the feedback!

I visited my sister in Jax back around New Years and paddled in the surf at Amelia island. It wasn't exactly balmy, but I was toasty warm in my 3mm farmer john. I could deal with that, but I want further south. I also have a lot of family in the pan handle (aka Redneck Riviera) but definitely want further south and I am not a huge fan of the local vibe. Beaches are very nice, fishing is incredible and waves are scarce. I have spent a lot of time in FL with people who live there and I have been in the summer and can deal with that; lots of retirees decide the dream is a nightmare when their first long summer rolls around.

I will follow up as it gets closer. I will go twice, once in summer and once in winter, but don't know if I will do this summer or the next.
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Caribsurf

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Re: Retiring But where?
« Reply #76 on: March 12, 2019, 07:21:23 AM »
Not there in the summer, but even with the long hot summers, there are sea breezes that make it bareable .  Certainly cooler than living inland. 
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Scallop

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Re: Retiring But where?
« Reply #77 on: March 12, 2019, 07:42:08 AM »
You can get cold spells even in the FL Keys in the winter, that being said there's definite temperature cutoffs as you travel South through FL.

I live on the same latitude as Melbourne although on the opposite coast, lived on the Southeast coast for 20+ years. The weather here is definitely different from the lower latitudes. Colder in the winter by enough to notice but also more mild in the summer, although it is Florida so....

I think if I were moving for waves it wouldn't be this state but the East coast is better by far. Paddling opportunities in the state as a whole are very diverse, from sheltered bays to spring fed rivers, ocean paddling, etc.

Property tax is low here, in my county if you are over a certain age and you live in your primary residence you are property tax exempt so that's a plus.

The West coast is busy like South Florida in the winter all the way up to my area in Tarpon Springs. It's similar in population density in the winter as points Southeast. Southeast Florida you get no break, it's slammed all year round Palm Beach County South. Here it backs off in the Summer, we much prefer the Summer.

The current plan is to keep our home base here and travel in the Winter on retirement. We are fortunate on the house location and can vacation rent our place easy in the winter and cover any overhead on it.



« Last Edit: March 12, 2019, 07:45:07 AM by Scallop »
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Scallop

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Re: Retiring But where?
« Reply #78 on: March 12, 2019, 07:43:40 AM »
Not there in the summer, but even with the long hot summers, there are sea breezes that make it bareable .  Certainly cooler than living inland.

Inland is rough in the summer.
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spirit4earth

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Re: Retiring But where?
« Reply #79 on: March 12, 2019, 08:46:15 AM »
And the possibility of recurring Red Tide is a consideration.

RideTheGlide

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Re: Retiring But where?
« Reply #80 on: March 12, 2019, 09:45:16 AM »
And the possibility of recurring Red Tide is a consideration.

The Gulf seems to get the worst of that, but yeah, there is some concern on the Atlantic side as well.

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RideTheGlide

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Re: Retiring But where?
« Reply #81 on: March 12, 2019, 09:58:34 AM »
Not there in the summer, but even with the long hot summers, there are sea breezes that make it bareable .  Certainly cooler than living inland.

Inland is rough in the summer.

Interestingly enough, nearly all the Southeast is just as bad except for duration. Other than the Big Bend, FL's humidity levels are not consistently higher than Raleigh, where I currently live. We actually get more of the 100+ days here, but average summer temps are about the same. But "summer" is ~2 months shorter here. Sea breeze definitely helps. I think Sarasota has gotten to 100 once since they started keeping records. We have a few 100+ days every year; we have even had 6 in a row in some recent years. I lived in Atlanta in the late 70s when they had ~40 100+ days in a row. I am okay with moist heat. My arthritis is more than okay with it, though 100+ is kind of pushing it.

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eastbound

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RideTheGlide

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Re: Retiring But where?
« Reply #83 on: March 13, 2019, 07:29:27 AM »
retiring?

watch the budget carefully, if you plan on using medicare

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-white-houses-new-budget-exposes-donald-trumps-lies-about-protecting-medicare-and-medicaid?utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_source=nl&utm_brand=tny&utm_mailing=TNY_Daily_031219&utm_medium=email&bxid=5bea06be24c17c6adf12005c&user_id=18891305&esrc=&utm_term=TNY_Daily

this'll open in incognito if you get paywalled (i subscribe--want nyer to be in business)

Yeah, I have been reading about that. I don't see any serious cuts to Medicare actually passing in Congress. IMO, about the only way such a move has a chance would be to have a future effective date and grandfathering for those already in by that date.

What I do have concerns about is the Medicare rates being substantially raised. that further complicates the decision on when to start taking SS. If you sign up for Medicare and have not started taking SS, you are still subject to rate increases. As soon as you start taking SS, you lock in your rate.

What makes it a good idea to start SS as late as possible is the increased payment. But the increased payment starts from behind and takes a while to make up for all the payments you would have already received at the reduced rate. No matter when I start taking it, I will have received the same amount of money at around age 81 or so. Then delaying pays off because I keep receiving more. But if delaying causes me to absorb a Medicare rate increase, it pushes the catch up date out further and makes the bump smaller once I do catch up.

Then there is the matter of drawing down the retirement account faster while delaying. A lot of articles that push delaying mean delaying retirement, not just starting SS. If you are going to retire either way, then you must choose between taking SS or drawing the full amount to live on from your retirement account or both - supplementing your SS by drawing a smaller amount from retirement savings so the income matches what it would have been if you delayed. If the amount you draw is a small enough percentage of your account, it is very likely it will never run out. That's a hell of a lot more likely if you are just supplementing.
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eastbound

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Re: Retiring But where?
« Reply #84 on: March 13, 2019, 07:48:41 AM »
very interesting--hadnt considered this detail, and I need to at my fair age

thx for the prompt
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PonoBill

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Re: Retiring But where?
« Reply #85 on: March 13, 2019, 12:17:43 PM »
Quite correct RTG, which is why the easiest way to look at SS (though not the most obvious way) is to view it like buying a simple annuity, which is a common decision for people who haven't saved enough to live off when they retire. Annuities suck, unless you need one, and social security looks and feels a lot like an annuity that pays out at eight percent or so if you look at delaying your start date. You do have to take potentially higher medicare payments into account, but be sure to adjust your income expectations to do the calculation for payment. Absent the administration doing something nefarious (likely) the calculation doesn't change dramatically.

The simplest answer generally is that if you can afford to--delay or at least consult an expert, if you can't, then don't.
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RideTheGlide

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Re: Retiring But where?
« Reply #86 on: March 13, 2019, 01:46:31 PM »
Quite correct RTG, which is why the easiest way to look at SS (though not the most obvious way) is to view it like buying a simple annuity, which is a common decision for people who haven't saved enough to live off when they retire. Annuities suck, unless you need one, and social security looks and feels a lot like an annuity that pays out at eight percent or so if you look at delaying your start date. You do have to take potentially higher medicare payments into account, but be sure to adjust your income expectations to do the calculation for payment. Absent the administration doing something nefarious (likely) the calculation doesn't change dramatically.

The simplest answer generally is that if you can afford to--delay or at least consult an expert, if you can't, then don't.

Running through the scenarios, it is extremely unlikely that I would come out ahead by taking it earlier. Incredibly bad market timing (see 2008) is the only scenario and even then you can't be sure how long it will take to bounce back. There is a slightly more likely scenario that I don't like to spend too much time thinking about where my heirs come out ahead if I don't delay taking it.  But slightly more likely than that is the scenario where I do come out ahead. There is also the added bonus on my account of minimizing tax. When I put it away I was/am protecting it from the highest rate that the upper part of my income is subject to. If I withdraw it as the sole source of income for a few years, it will be taxed the lowest possible rate.

The hard part will be wrapping my mind around the concept that it is okay to touch it after considering it untouchable for the better part of 40 years. I started in my late 20s when it was first available to me. I was surprised at how few people did. Did you not hear the part about the matching being free money? If I wasn't such a conservative chicken about investing for a long time I would be doing very well. I am still doing pretty good. A lot depends on how things go the next 45 months as far as employment, health and unforeseen major expenses.
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eastbound

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Re: Retiring But where?
« Reply #87 on: March 13, 2019, 02:23:23 PM »
investment entry and exit timing is tough--i counsel my kids to NOT attempt to market time, but to mechanically invest monthly to smooth out avg cost, where all will be fine 40 years out

problem with retirement is that sell timing is arbitrarily pegged to age--if you need the money and at least a part is in stox, youve got to sell, even if the market is on a 10 yr low, due for a strong rebound

this is why bogle says--at least your age as percentage of portfolio shd be in fixed income--and better to ladder maturities to anticipated cash need timing--even if FI goes against as rates increase, it always pulls back to par value at maturity


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RideTheGlide

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Re: Retiring But where?
« Reply #88 on: March 13, 2019, 05:58:37 PM »
If the market takes a dive, you shouldn't pull out unless you absolutely need the money. Is using it to delay starting SS an absolute need? It depends...

Probably it is; you will likely still come out ahead. But really bad market timing is about the only scenario in which not delaying when you can afford to might be the better play. It's unlikely, but possible. That's all my point was about various scenarios.

According to this article

https://www.businessinsider.com/social-security-life-table-charts-2014-3

that uses data from SS, at age 60, a man has a 58% chance of living past 80 and a 20% chance of living past 90. Odds are you will come out ahead if you delay, but the odds are against you coming out way ahead. But it's not an even playing field. I don't smoke, my BMI is just under 24, I exercise regularly, have never been treated for a heart condition, high BP or cancer and my dad is about 5 months away from turning 90. There are no guarantees, but my odds are higher than average of making 80 and 90.

There is also the spousal consideration. The spousal benefit doesn't increase past FRA, which is 66 & 8 for me. It remains to be seen if that makes any difference, but that's another story. Something to figure in if it applies to you.

Less than 2% of SS recipients who could have waited until age 70 chose to do so, so as much sense as it makes, there aren't a lot of people doing it, though the chart below indicates that more recently more are waiting; still less than 4%. 57% of people claim SS before their FRA.

« Last Edit: March 13, 2019, 06:02:26 PM by RideTheGlide »
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PonoBill

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Re: Retiring But where?
« Reply #89 on: March 13, 2019, 11:34:11 PM »
Of course I waited until 70.5 because, hey, math. We geeks kind of rock that. Most people--okay, say 50 percent, are as dumb as a bag of hammers. Mean but true. When someone says "fifty percent of the public thinks this" my immediate thought is "fifty percent of the public can't find their ass with both hands". A graph like that is the last thing I'd pay attention to.
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