Author Topic: Saddle upó"a few years to a few decades, depending"óCovid's long ride.  (Read 1896 times)

Wetstuff

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 https://www.statnews.com/2021/08/02/belated-realization-that-covid-will-be-a-long-war-sparks-anger-denial/?utm_source=STAT+Newsletters&utm_campaign=27af1ab831-Daily_Recap&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8cab1d7961-27af1ab831-151101361

It's a spooky thought, but I wonder if we're looking at another 2008 scenario.  The federal ban on evictions expired a couple of days ago. A construction company down the street from my shop has a rental.  Since there was no graduation ceremony for High School seniors, each grad had their photo taken in cap and gown and it was made into a yard sign. A smiling young lady had her sign out front for the last few weeks.  This is what replaced it Saturday morning.

Jim

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TallDude

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2008 was people being given loans they could never afford. When we bought our house 30+ years ago, we needed 25% down because I'm self employed. In the early 2000's they were giving ajustable home and construction loans with no money down to anyone that had a job and was breathing. We will.... see some version of that, but these are renters who are renting places that are more than they can afford. The rents are crazy high around in our area.
It's not overhead to me!
8'8" L-41 ST and a whole pile of boards I rarely use.

PonoBill

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About 37 percent of single-family rental units are now corporately owned, and multiple units rapidly head toward 100 percent. When a renter in a locally owned unit gets in trouble they can at least talk to someone and perhaps work something out. In corporately owned houses it's a purely financial decision. If you get evicted it's almost impossible to find a home to rent. Presto, homeless.
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

Bean

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On a personal note I lost many months of rents due to the the eviction ban on a single family property.  Fortunately for us, the tenant moved out and we were able to get in for a complete reno and sale - one more property off the rental rolls.

In NJ an eviction generally takes 5-6 months even in the best of times.     

Here is an article I read recently.  Anyone have better stats?

According to Derek Thomson (The Atlantic, June 2021), "The U.S. has roughly 140 million housing units, a broad category that includes mansions, tiny townhouses, and apartments of all sizes. Of those 140 million units, about 80 million are stand-alone single-family homes. Of those 80 million, about 15 million are rental properties. Of those 15 million single-family rentals, institutional investors own about 300,000; most of the rest are owned by individual landlords. Of that 300,000, BlackRockólargely through its investment in the real-estate rental company Invitation Homesóowns about 80,000. (To clear up a common confusion: The investment firm Blackstone established Invitation Homes, in which BlackRock, a separate investment firm, is now an investor.)

...Rental-home companies own less than half of one percent of all housing, even in states such as Texas, where they were actively buying up foreclosed properties after the Great Recession. Their recent buying has been small compared with the overall market."

Wetstuff

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Bean, I sure don't envy you little guys with rentals...  It used to be thought of as a way of 'enhancing your retirement'.  It becomes a catch-22 ...they sure as hell are not going to have 6 mos. of payments on day 181?!

This pop'd up on AXIOS this morning. (Aug 4)

"Americans collectively owe over $10 trillion for their homes ó and a sizable share of that balance (44%) originated in the past year.

Why it matters: The fresh data point ó courtesy of the New York Fed ó illustrates the historic mad dash to buy new homes or refinance existing mortgages. The last time the share was bigger was about 15 years ago, on the heels of the mortgage refinancing boom in the early aughts.

It's partly explained by a tidal wave of refinancing. Borrowing costs plummeted to record lows ó and homeowners rushed to lower mortgage payments. That shows up as a whole lot of new mortgages.

Then there's skyrocketing home prices: The more expensive the home, the higher the dollar amount per borrower.
What they're saying: "The combination of that refi activity and a strong purchase market last year continuing into this year ó there's a lot of volume turning over," says Mike Fratantoni, an economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association."

Waking up old is not always fun, but it is easier if you are well-rooted and Medicare is there to intercept incoming.


Jim

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PonoBill

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Yes, it's ugly. The targeted approach President Biden just announced won't do that much for people who own rental homes. At one time I considered buying some single-family homes or building some four or five-family townhouses for sale to lower-income home buyers. I'm glad my smart wife talked me out of it--I have a rule of not investing in things I don't fully understand and having no experience in managing rentals certainly qualified as a big NO. We did help finance a project, but all the units got snapped up by speculators.
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

Bean

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That was the last "income property" for me.  I was an awful landlord, took a beating from almost every tenant including one time, a physical beating from a genuine crack-head.  He was at least a head shorter (It was like the scene from Elf when Miles (Peter Dinklage) charged Buddy in the boardroom). Lucky for me, I know when to stand down. ;D

surfcowboy

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Donít rent the cheap ones.

In the end, one nicer, larger, property is easier than 3-4 smaller ones. While easier to get into initially, the potential for trouble on the cheaper ones is much higher. Also it takes far longer to recover revenue lost from an issue.

This is true in many aspects of business. If youíre going to be small, you have to target the higher end. Leave low margin scale to Walmart.

Sorry to hear you got to tangle with a crackhead. No fun.

PonoBill

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I've never been a landlord but I've run a few businesses, and I'd double down on Cowboy's advice. Our advertising agency had much less grief dealing with Microsoft, HP, Oracle and companies of that size. Trying to help small companies was much harder in every way, including trying to get paid.

Back to the subject at hand though, the trend does not look good, and people are more resistant to any kind of preventative measure than ever. Thankfully I live in two relatively sane places. But in the long run, this surge and the divide that makes combatting Covid so difficult, are going to cost all of us dearly. Delta is spooky, but this virus can mutate in any and all directions. Given enough time and a big enough petri dish we'll probably have a deadlier version with the infection rate of Delta. Diseases that kill their host quickly tend to either become less virulent or burn out fairly quickly because the virus doesn't get spread consistently. But after the host has passed the virus on their survival doesn't affect the viability of the virus. Destroying a lot more cells to increase the viral load and the transmission rate is just one of the likely paths for mutation. Covid has the potential to be a lot more deadly before host mortality curbs the spread.
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

Admin

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Back to 500 deaths a day and climbing fast.  Very localized on low vaccination regions.  It takes a single vaccination resistant mutation to set everyone back to square one - and a few of us are making that possibility easier. 

Some are unreachable (many by intention).  There is no real hope for movement there other than possibly last minute fear.  I do see a reachable group though and I actually see the current efforts there as being very well done.  This needs to be approached with that in mind.  Reach the reachable.  Every vaccination is lives saved.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2021, 06:15:38 AM by Admin »

PonoBill

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Such a stunningly stupid thing to politicize. I really wonder if there is a shred of morality and leadership in politics. I know it's a ruthless and corrupt game, but wow. Republican governors doing everything in their power to expose their constituents to a potentially deadly virus. Why?--votes and money from the Trump true believers. The Democrat administration prating about the environment and then holding an EV circle jerk with only the automakers who have dragged their feet to resist every environmentally sound regulation. Tesla not even invited--why? Unions and the millions of union-controlled votes and money. We're going to be bailing out those same companies when they go bankrupt shortly. My money is on all three being BK by 2030.

It feels like politicians are on the wrong side of everything. I know historically they always have been, but the damage is so plain to see now. I don't think the general public can change the game. It's too easy to court the stupid end of the bell curve, and all those folks on the other end willing to believe anything fed to them that suits their preconceptions. I think we're fucked. 
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

TallDude

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It's not overhead to me!
8'8" L-41 ST and a whole pile of boards I rarely use.

Esteban

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Well, for better or worse natural selection still works so the Covidiots and MAGAts who donít believe in science or vaccines will be getting the virus and dying at a much higher rate than those of us who are vaccinated.

PonoBill

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That would be their choice if they weren't the ideal breeding ground for mutated viruses that bypass the immune system better.
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

 


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