Author Topic: Delta Variant is here...  (Read 13977 times)

Carpediem

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Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #45 on: July 30, 2021, 09:09:58 AM »
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SUP Leave

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Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #46 on: July 30, 2021, 09:46:28 AM »
We all manage to forget that a majority of Americans thought peace with the Nazis was acceptable and that we shouldn't intervene in World War Two.
Lest someone think the US were composed of Nazi sympathizers, it's important to know that the US was going through an isolationist period after the crash of '29 when those polls were taken.  And although as a nation, along with the rest of the free world, we should have known better, the fact is, as a group we didn't.  The news from Europe didn't penetrate, we were too busy sorting out domestic issues.  By the time the evidence was better presented, we were in denial.  Sounds a little too damned familiar for sure.

From the history I've read, the US had plenty of Nazi sympathizers. I will never know enough to be able to separate the wheat from the chaff of US history, so I mostly just look at numbers. I think if I were a pollster I'd think even less of the average run of humanity.

You say that you mostly look at the numbers, but the polls don't tell us what percentage of the US population were Nazi sympathizers in 1939.  So, your statement that the US had plenty of Nazi sympathizers is really based on inference.  (admittedly, you might be right depending on how you characterize "plenty")

I happen to think most Americans and especially those of the the WWII generation are/were pretty good people overall.

You're a marketing guy, what would you have done/or do differently to sell the vaccine?  And, I don't want to hear "you can't fix stupid"...

Having watched the gov't lie, threaten, cajole, lurch, and stumble I know what doesn't work. The NPIs have only driven a wedge in our society.

I'm not a marketing guy, but I think the best way would have been brutal honesty:

"Covid is here, the only way to get past it is through - you will likely not be able to avoid it. So get vaccinated because we cannot stop this thing and the vaccines reduce the chances of you getting seriously sick."

That does two things, 1- eliminates the belief that we can "squash" the virus, because one of the things driving society apart is our hubris that we can personally effect the outcome (if we all just bla, bla bla).  and 2 -lets people know they will probably get it and thus their health choice is important.
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Bean

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Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #47 on: July 30, 2021, 10:05:38 AM »
... I think the best way would have been brutal honesty:

Yes, without question, the so called noble lies have been counter productive.

Oahuwaterwalker

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Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #48 on: July 30, 2021, 10:14:37 AM »
..
Only epidemiologists care about the herd or the fact that a few million people will have their lives shortened.
..

A strong immune system can not only protect an individual against illnesses, but, in the case of viruses, help to prevent asymptomatic infection (and consequently transmission) as well.

In the study linked in my previous post, Vitamin D suplementation lowered SARS-CoV2 infection numbers by 40%. Unfortunately results like this are not promoted enough.

Your post implies a causal relationship between Vitamin D and lowered SARS. In fact, that's not what the study claims. Based on a speed read (and a background in statistical analysis) they found a statistical significance that suggests that Vitamin D might be a beneficial factor. Statistical significance is a low bar and a far cry from causation. They also noted in the limitations of the study they acknowledged their inability to account for other co-variates (i.e. "we don't know what other countless variables might have been present in our sample").

I'm with you in being hopeful that we can identify ways to protect ourselves, our loved ones, and communities through health based alternatives (I also jumped at the first chance to get vaccinated), but there are very significant limitations to this type of study.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2021, 10:16:43 AM by Oahuwaterwalker »
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Carpediem

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Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #49 on: July 30, 2021, 11:12:20 AM »
Your post implies a causal relationship between Vitamin D and lowered SARS. In fact, that's not what the study claims.

Fair enough, let me rephrase it: "SARS-CoV2 infection numbers were 40% lower in the supplementation groups." That's good enough for me.

And congrats for actually taking the time to read and analyze the study.
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Tom

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Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #50 on: July 30, 2021, 01:19:16 PM »
Here's something from todays New York times news letter.

Quote
Not in control
Consider these Covid-19 mysteries:

In India — where the Delta variant was first identified and caused a huge outbreak — cases have plunged over the past two months.

A similar drop may now be underway in Britain. There is no clear explanation for these declines.

In the U.S., cases started falling rapidly in early January. The decline began before vaccination was widespread and did not follow any evident changes in Americans’ Covid attitudes.

In March and April, the Alpha variant helped cause a sharp rise in cases in the upper Midwest and Canada. That outbreak seemed poised to spread to the rest of North America — but did not.

This spring, caseloads were not consistently higher in parts of the U.S. that had relaxed masking and social distancing measures (like Florida and Texas) than in regions that remained vigilant.

Large parts of Africa and Asia still have not experienced outbreaks as big as those in Europe, North America and South America.

‘Much, much milder’

Over the course of this pandemic, I have found one of my early assumptions especially hard to shake. It’s one that many other people seem to share — namely, that a virus always keeps spreading, eventually infecting almost the entire population, unless human beings take actions to stop it. And this idea does have crucial aspects of truth. Social distancing and especially vaccination can save lives.

But much of the ebb and flow of a pandemic cannot be explained by changes in human behavior. That was true with influenza a century ago, and it is true with Covid now. An outbreak often fizzles mysteriously, like a forest fire that fails to jump from one patch of trees to another.


PonoBill

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Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #51 on: July 30, 2021, 01:35:58 PM »
You're a marketing guy, what would you have done/or do differently to sell the vaccine?  And, I don't want to hear "you can't fix stupid"...

It's really quite simple. Long before the Cambridge Analytics people started using Facebook data to radically influence elections my company invented a simple tool I called "Autodemagogue". We demonstrated that we could take ten short neutral articles and by simply arranging their order according to survey data we collected on the issues the recipient considered most important, we could gain a strongly positive response. In other words, we could make them believe (as Cambridge Analytics did) that Jair Bolsonaro was their guy because he thought like them. Even though he absolutely did not.

Of course, we only used it for good (making money for me) but there is far more data available now, and it would be trivial, and relatively inexpensive, to pump exactly the kind of stories people would need to see (even if they never read a word) straight to their unreasoning brain to decide that vaccination makes sense for them. The aim is not to inform, it's to sell.

Marketers can make leotards for men a fashion item, can get old men to wear T-shirts that proclaim they are old men, squeeze women into spanx, popularize Hard Kamboucha.

This is much easier.

Oh, and Carpe Diem--as your marketing consultant, I'd say despite the thought-provoking nature of most of your comments, posting a picture of a sheep is code for "I'm a dick, don't listen to me".

« Last Edit: July 30, 2021, 01:52:07 PM by PonoBill »
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Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #52 on: July 30, 2021, 02:06:14 PM »
I just read this excellent and approachable article from Kaiser on the delta mutation and related issues. This falls into the "holy shit" category. We've got great tech to combat the virus (good) and a world full of petri dishes (bad). https://khn.org/.../unraveling-the-mysterious-mutations.../

I've been unraveling articles on transmissibility and hazard of Delta. Two things seem obvious. The data (and studies) on transmissibility are statistical at best (1000 times more contagious) but the data on viral load in the respiratory passages are not. I was not aware that counting virii is feasible, common, and accurate, but it is, and the viral load in people with Delta--vaccinated and unvaccinated, is 1000 times greater than plain-vanilla COVID19. The correlation seems kind of obvious. Multiplying the factors together, your chances of getting Covid in a closed space with unvaccinated, unmasked people is somewhere close to 100 percent. With masked, unvaccinated people it's still damned high. You may not want to call them plague rats if you'd like to positively influence people, but it's a good idea to think of them that way.

I think I need to start wearing the stupid mask again, and avoiding closed spaces with people whose fundamental intelligence and level of social responsibility is not known to me. Diane and I are both vaccinated, and I don't expect to kaack from this stuff even if I get it, but she doesn't have my goat-level Defcon-5 immune system.

Fuck.
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Carpediem

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Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #53 on: July 30, 2021, 03:25:30 PM »
Oh, and Carpe Diem--as your marketing consultant, I'd say despite the thought-provoking nature of most of your comments, posting a picture of a sheep is code for "I'm a dick, don't listen to me".
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TallDude

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Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #54 on: July 30, 2021, 05:48:28 PM »
What I suspected on my OP looks to be the case. Data shows the Pfizer vaccine can drop to 83.7% effective within four to six months. Can you say Booster Shot?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/pfizer-says-immunity-can-drop-to-83-within-four-months-in-people-who-got-its-covid-19-shot-further-bolstering-the-company-case-for-a-booster/ar-AAMHZHM?ocid=winp1taskbar
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Oahuwaterwalker

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Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #55 on: July 30, 2021, 07:06:52 PM »
Your post implies a causal relationship between Vitamin D and lowered SARS. In fact, that's not what the study claims.

Fair enough, let me rephrase it: "SARS-CoV2 infection numbers were 40% lower in the supplementation groups." That's good enough for me.

And congrats for actually taking the time to read and analyze the study.

I'm always game for learning more about things like this and wanted to be respectful to your position by reading the article before stating my opinion.

That said, I think you are still confusing what that quote actually means. Unfortunately, stats articles like this can leave a lot of room for people to misinterpret them. Essentially, they are saying something(s) about the group that supplemented Vitamin D and a relationship to lower infection numbers. They did not say it was Vitamin D that kept infections low. Where they mention limitations to the study, they acknowledge that they couldn't control for other possible factors. For example, it could be that people who supplement also are more active, more fit, or spend more time outdoors, etc.

My point is that there is nothing in this article that indicates taking Vitamin D as a supplement is likely to change anything about your chances of getting sick with COVID, just that there's a connection.

I just wouldn't rely on it to keep you from catching or spreading covid.





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Carpediem

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Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #56 on: July 31, 2021, 02:29:38 AM »
I can see your point regarding lifestyle/supplementation, but as far as I understand it the study took into account public healthcare system data, ie if one buys it online because of his/her lifestyle it wouldn't show up there. Also, some of the matched covariates include 25OHD sufficiency, demographical data, cigarette smoking, obesity, etc.

As for the reliability of cohorts, it could be argued that the effect of unknown variables, as important and unknown as it may be, tends do diminish the larger a sample is, and one of the strenghts of this study is its size. Sure, it can't imply causation, but as cautious as the authors tried to be on the conclusion, they dared to say supplementation seems to be "beneficial against SARS-CoV2 infection, COVID-19 severity and COVID-19 mortality in patients achieving serum 25OHD levels ≥ 30 ng/ml".
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PonoBill

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Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #57 on: July 31, 2021, 08:02:59 AM »
For those who consider the KHN article too long to read (really??) here's a capsule. The delta mutation (93% of new infections in the USA are now delta) incubation period is 4 days vs CV19 6, people infected with CV19 infected 2 people on average, with delta it's 6, the P631R mutation increases the viral load by 1000 times, the D950N mutation may cause damage to more organs. The N-terminal mutation makes monoclonal antibodies less effective for treatment. And in summary, Dr. William Haseltine, a former Harvard Medical School professor who helped design treatments for HIV/AIDS.

“It’s getting better, and we’re making it better,” he said. “Having half the population vaccinated and half unvaccinated and unprotected — that is the exact experiment I would design if I were a devil and trying to design a vaccine-busting virus.”
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PonoBill

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Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #58 on: July 31, 2021, 08:24:20 AM »
I've also been reading studies on mutation rates, I found this one particularly useful, mostly because I understand almost all the words: https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pbio.3000003. The news there is good and bad. High replication rates mean more mutations, but mutations are fundamentally replication mistakes. It's not uncommon for high mutation rates to doom an organism by passing on mutations that favor replication (and take over the population like Delta has) but ultimately mean the replicating code gets scrambled so the virus may be one or few mistakes away from not being able to replicate at all. Essentially the mutation that speeds up replication and mutation leaves the virus closer to self-destruction.

Unfortunately, RNA viruses like coronavirus are more tolerant to high mutation rates and can stay closer to an optimal peak, mostly because they are just code. DNA viruses are more like code plus operating system, so mutation is more frequently disastrous.

At least that's how my geek brain restates what I've read.
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PonoBill

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Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #59 on: July 31, 2021, 09:48:45 AM »
Oh, and Carpe Diem--as your marketing consultant, I'd say despite the thought-provoking nature of most of your comments, posting a picture of a sheep is code for "I'm a dick, don't listen to me".


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