Author Topic: Delta Variant is here...  (Read 14709 times)

TallDude

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 5661
  • Capistrano Beach
    • View Profile
    • Email
Delta Variant is here...
« on: July 14, 2021, 10:26:42 AM »
My vacinatted RN wife is just getting over Covid-19 illness. She was one of the first to be vaccinated (Moderna). Her and 10 of her hospital co-workers all recently contracted Covid from the same patient. All tracing protocals were taken. All of her co-workers are /were already vaccinated with various Covid vaccines. She's doing fine now. She had a high temp for two days, coughing, and partial loss of taste and smell. She isolated herself from everyone for more than a week and no one around her has become ill. She was symptomatic within two days of exposure to the patient. Pfizer is reccomending a booster shot which they say can booster the effectiveness even more against the new variants. Maybe the fact that everyone else in our family (me included) were vaccinated much later lends itself the idea that the vaccines do lose their effectiveness over time? Maybe yearly booster shots will be needed?
It's not overhead to me!
8'8" L-41 ST and a whole pile of boards I rarely use.

FRP

  • Bob
  • Sunset Status
  • ****
  • Posts: 456
    • View Profile
Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2021, 03:30:05 PM »
Thanks TD for the note.

Good news that your wife has recovered. As I am sure you know the vaccinations decrease the probability of being infected by about 90% for the variants before Delta. It is likely lower for the Delta variant but I have not read what the number is. What the vaccines dramatically decrease is the chances of severe illness, hospitalisation and death (all by more than 98%) if you are infected. As viral load and shedding is also decreased they do decrease the risk of transmission if you are infected. In Canada now a large majority of those hospitalised have not been vaccinated. BC is now over 80% of eligible population vaccinated with one dose and two doses around 50%. This is all very positive and provides much hope for the future. We are a long way from the end of this pandemic. There is no consensus as of yet on third vaccinations and when to have them. I have well educated young relatives who are "vaccine hesitant" and who have been infected. I truly hope that our door remains open to them and that their young age shields them from severe illness. It would be easy to climb up on a high horse. In all likelihood I am up on that horse now and do not even realise it. Bob
Sunova 8'10" Speeed
Sunova 8’7” Creek
KeNalu Konihi 84 (primary paddle)
Kialoa Pipes II
Werner Nitro Carbon

"The time spent surfing is time that is added to my life" “In the ocean we are all connected”
Anon

PonoBill

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 24945
    • View Profile
Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2021, 11:15:22 AM »
If the horse relates to people choosing not to vaccinate against a potentially fatal disease and thereby serving as vectors, then it really can't be high enough.
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

tarquin

  • Rincon Status
  • ***
  • Posts: 243
    • View Profile
Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2021, 12:11:44 PM »
Its becoming obvious in Europe the vaccines are less effective against the Delta variant.
 Hopefully they will keep the majority of people out of hospital as promised.
 If the vaccine is not stopping the spreading though there is still a chance of it mutating again.
 With a small chance of being hospitalised for younger people what is the benefit of taking the vaccine?
 Its now becoming obvious in Europe you will have to be vaccinated to do anything. 12 and over in France.
 Good your wife has recovered and a big thank you to all hospital workers all over the world.
 Its not over yet unfortunately.

PonoBill

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 24945
    • View Profile
Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2021, 01:00:40 PM »
The data I've seen shows the vaccine as effective against Delta, but it's more infectious. A higher contagion rate pushes all the stats higher, even when vaccine efficacy remains the same.

The infection rate can be pushed lower even among unvaccinated people by vaccination of a sufficient majority when the contagion rate is lower--fewer people shedding virus. Increase the contagion rate and the effect is reduced, In Delta's case that is a huge increase in overall infection.

Picture 10% of the vaccinated people getting CV when the case rate was around 2000/day in May in the UK--so 200 a day. Now along comes Delta and the case rate in July is 40,000 per day. Presto--4000 vaccinated people a day getting Covid. The rate of serious illness for vaccinated people with Covid remains at 2% of those who are infected--80 per day. That's bad, but it's a long way from the hospitalization/death rate of unvaccinated.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/united-kingdom-covid-cases.html

The most obvious issue I've seen locally is an increase in assholery. People seem to have forgotten their manners, if they ever had any.

Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

Subber

  • Peahi Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 865
    • View Profile
Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2021, 10:27:57 AM »
My vacinatted RN wife is just getting over Covid-19 illness. She was one of the first to be vaccinated (Moderna). Her and 10 of her hospital co-workers all recently contracted Covid from the same patient. All tracing protocals were taken. All of her co-workers are /were already vaccinated with various Covid vaccines. She's doing fine now. She had a high temp for two days, coughing, and partial loss of taste and smell. She isolated herself from everyone for more than a week and no one around her has become ill. She was symptomatic within two days of exposure to the patient. Pfizer is reccomending a booster shot which they say can booster the effectiveness even more against the new variants. Maybe the fact that everyone else in our family (me included) were vaccinated much later lends itself the idea that the vaccines do lose their effectiveness over time? Maybe yearly booster shots will be needed?

Glad she is doing fine now.

Hmmm....I guess a question is, Is the natural immunity/antibodies she got from catching the virus better than the vaccine (and/or the potential  booster)?
Jimmy Lewis Black & Blue Noserider 10'1"x31"x4.25," 164 liters, 24 lbs, 1 box
Pearson Laird Surftech Longboard 10'6"x23"x29.75"x18"x4.375," 154 liters, 24 lbs, 3 boxes
Takayama Ali'i II Surftech 11'x21.375”x28.5”x17.25”x 4.25,” 162 liters, 26 lbs, 3 boxes

TallDude

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 5661
  • Capistrano Beach
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2021, 10:21:03 AM »
So a follow up. No one in our house or close family got Covid from being exposed to my wife. A friend of ours 16 year old son got it from somewhere? Only symptom was loss of taste. No fever or cough. My wife has already regained most of her taste and smell and has been cleared to go back to work. Almost 100% of all the current hospitalized Covid patients were / are unvacinated.
It's not overhead to me!
8'8" L-41 ST and a whole pile of boards I rarely use.

krash

  • Rincon Status
  • ***
  • Posts: 137
  • Old fugger who loves to fish
    • View Profile
Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2021, 06:59:10 AM »
At this point I find it almost pointless to discuss the benefit of having the vaccine and not with the people not vaccinated, at least here in the US...

There is yet another variant showing up in S. Florida called  "Lamda" while "Delta" is the prevalent one in people testing positive and/or ending up in the hospital.
As long as Covid is still spreading and not slowed or stopped there will be varints, its not new that's why its called Covid 19 not Covid 1.

Florida, thanks you Gov. DeathSantUs, now can calim again the highest number of infected people with 73,000+ cases and a rate of positive test at just over 15% and climbing weekly.. tripple form 5% to 15% in 3 weeks.
The hospitals are reporting 90+ % of the people in he ICU's are not vaccinated and generally below the age of 55.

I'm vaccinated with Pfizer and glad I am, was one of the first in line and If there is a booster I'll line up to get that one to.

There is a reason that Polio and Smallpox are no longer a threat in the US and that's because of Vaccines that were given to 2+ generations of residents of the US population.

And here, with no restrictions now, had a concert 3 day concert "Rolling Loud" with 10+ thousand  shouting and screaming fans elbow to elbow, sharing who knows what, with no social distancing, or a care in the world about themselves or others.


Old fugger who just likes to fish

Fishman

  • Sunset Status
  • ****
  • Posts: 477
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2021, 09:26:51 AM »



Glad she is doing fine now.

Hmmm....I guess a question is, Is the natural immunity/antibodies she got from catching the virus better than the vaccine (and/or the potential  booster)?
This is a good question, which is more effective at keeping people out of the hospital. Vacation or previously having CV? How much better is one over the other...

It seems to be another passionate subject that can rarely be logically discussed without emotions steering it down silly rabbit holes. If even someone mentions the statistics that could POSSIBLY discouraged vaccinations, you will instantly be a flat earther. And honestly there is just so little to be gained by pointing out those type of facts, that it almost is pointless.

Thing is like most things in life, vaccines are all about risk to reward. As mentioned Polio and Smallpox are gone because of vaccines that had huge rewards, and extremely low risk. On the other hand if there was a vaccine that prevented the common cold but 5% would get ____ fill in blank ( the flu, cluster headaches, cancer...) Then the risk to reward might not be worth it. Based on what I know about the subject current vaccines are critical for some, and counterproductive for others. The risk to reward varies quite a bit at this time so I'll be keeping a open mind on this subject.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2021, 09:32:44 AM by Fishman »
SupSurfMachine 9'9" longboard
SupSurfMachine  8'2" funboard

LaPerouseBay

  • Teahupoo Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 1926
  • downwind dilettante
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2021, 04:17:04 PM »
As long as Covid is still spreading and not slowed or stopped there will be varints, its not new that's why its called Covid 19 not Covid 1.

Copy/paste from the Goliath

What does the word novel mean related to coronavirus?
The word “novel” originated from the Latin word “novus,” which means “new.” In medicine, “novel” usually refers to a virus or bacterial strain that was not previously identified. COVID-19 is a new disease, caused by the novel, or new, coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that was not previously seen in humans.

And:
 
Common question
Why is the coronavirus disease called COVID-19?
On February 11, 2020 the World Health Organization announced an official name for the disease that is causing the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak, first identified in Wuhan China. The new name of this disease is coronavirus disease 2019, abbreviated as COVID-19.
Support your local shaper

Admin

  • Administrator
  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 5986
    • View Profile
    • StandUpZone
    • Email
Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #10 on: July 26, 2021, 03:21:19 AM »
Based on what I know about the subject current vaccines are critical for some, and counterproductive for others. The risk to reward varies quite a bit at this time so I'll be keeping a open mind on this subject.

Even if you are unconvinced that the immediate risk from any of the current vaccines is phenomenally low at an individual level (and it is), wouldn't you remain open to getting vaccinated for those around you?  Wouldn't you want to help prevent continuation and mutation so this doesn't circle around for you.  What statistics are you seeing that have you unsure?

Bean

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 4166
    • View Profile
Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #11 on: July 26, 2021, 07:00:55 AM »
Wouldn't you want to help prevent continuation and mutation so this doesn't circle around for you. 

The anti-vaccine crowd seem to believe that vaccinating low-risk populations would not have an affect on spread.  While that might have been true with the original strain, a recent study from the UK showed that children and adults under 50 were 2.5 times more likely to become infected with Delta.  Additional variants could be even more aggressive.  Certainly Lambda appears to be so in Tennessee. 

SUP Leave

  • Peahi Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 530
    • View Profile
Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #12 on: July 26, 2021, 10:59:16 AM »
The vaccine thing is weird. I have an aunt who is an ER nurse. She is unbearably liberal, literally you can be looking at a beautiful sunset and she will tell you it is only beautiful, because Trump lost. Her WIFI name is "McConnel=Satan".

She is unvaccinated. She flatly says, it is because of the FDA's EUA. Once FDA gives standing approval she will take it, I would imagine she is in the minority of anti-vaxxers. I do have some friends who are true anti-vaxxers. They are just hippies and rely on plants, roots and herbs, yoga and other natural methods for everything.

Other people I know who haven't gotten vaccinated, are mostly because they can't be bothered. Again and again the US Gov't cannot seem to understand human nature. They get called anti-vaxxers, when in reality they just don't care that much, because they are not afraid of Covid. The argument about "what if you infect someone who is high risk" doesn't rate for them. They probably haven't called their grandma in 6 months, let alone seen her. These people are far more common than a passionate anti-vaxxer. We only hear about the anti's because they make noise.

I think social media bubble makes it seem like the anti-vaxxers are a bunch of Trump loving hicks. Most people I know (because of where I live) are conservatives and all got vaccinated. I think if they would have branded it "Covid Shots" the same as "Flu Shots" they could have gotten a lot more activity. Does the government think we can overcome selfishness and apathy, via peer pressure?

IMO "strongly recommended" is far more powerful a tool than "mandated". I think it makes for better and more productive conversations and maintains free will. Mandates create sides-picking.
Make paddleboarding great again!

TallDude

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 5661
  • Capistrano Beach
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2021, 11:25:51 AM »
M_RNA vaccinies are the future of therapies and cures for a whole list of ailments and diseases.

https://ysph.yale.edu/news-article/the-application-and-future-potential-of-mrna-vaccines/
It's not overhead to me!
8'8" L-41 ST and a whole pile of boards I rarely use.

Wetstuff

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 2305
    • View Profile
    • Wetstuff
Re: Delta Variant is here...
« Reply #14 on: July 27, 2021, 05:36:22 AM »
The story behind the discovery of mRNA is both hopeful and sad.  This woman from a thatched-roof home worked for years before being accepted by the establishment.  I expect the future to thank her more loudly.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/redemption-one-scientists-unwavering-belief-mrna-gave-world/

Audio:  https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/10/podcasts/the-daily/mrna-vaccines-katalin-kariko.html


Business Week had a great article on Moderna ..that I cannot post a link to here.  Maybe I'll do a copy/paste...


Jim


Atlantis Mistress .. Blue Planet MultiTasker ..   Atlantis Venom

 


* Recent Posts

post Re: F-one 8m Strike CWC - Finally a big wing I'm stoked on!
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
Badger
Today at 06:58:56 AM
post Re: Drysuit anyone?
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
Badger
Today at 05:52:17 AM
post Re: go foil gl140
[Classifieds]
Pjwing
Today at 05:12:08 AM
post Re: Infinity RNB PPVC
[Gear Talk]
Dusk Patrol
November 29, 2021, 09:45:36 PM
post Re: Foil Videos
[Foil SUP]
ninja tuna
November 29, 2021, 09:04:12 PM
post Re: Drysuit anyone?
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
FRP
November 29, 2021, 08:07:11 PM
post Re: Ocean Rodeo Glide-Allula
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
burchas
November 29, 2021, 06:49:48 PM
post Re: Ensis Score Wings
[Classifieds]
Dwight (DW)
November 29, 2021, 05:06:18 PM
post Re: F-one 8m Strike CWC - Finally a big wing I'm stoked on!
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
deja vu
November 29, 2021, 04:41:49 PM
post Ensis Score Wings
[Classifieds]
Dwight (DW)
November 29, 2021, 03:43:13 PM
post Re: Ocean Rodeo Glide-Allula
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
PonoBill
November 29, 2021, 11:27:02 AM
post Re: ART999 vs GoFoil NL190 - SUP Foil Only
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
JohnnyTsunami
November 29, 2021, 10:10:22 AM
post Re: ART999 vs GoFoil NL190 - SUP Foil Only
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
PonoBill
November 29, 2021, 10:04:34 AM
post Re: ART999 vs GoFoil NL190 - SUP Foil Only
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
Beasho
November 29, 2021, 08:07:47 AM
post Re: ART999 vs GoFoil NL190 - SUP Foil Only
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
Beasho
November 29, 2021, 07:57:50 AM
SimplePortal 2.3.7 © 2008-2021, SimplePortal