Robert Redfield - CDC - Covid

[Admin]

My older brother Scott just did this discussion/interview with Robert Redfield.  Interesting to hear what he thinks went right and wrong with handling of the Covid-19 pandemic to date.  Also interesting to learn the scope of the CDC itself.  Long, but in my biased opinion, worth it.

https://mediaserver.uthsc.edu/uthscms/Play/5e0434fd2df54c34962508c94d8720481d

[Wetstuff]

I only had gotten to about minute-6, but I will dnld it to listen in the car.  I hope there's some discussion about his affiliation with Mad King Donald and Steven Torquemada Miller. I question whether any centered person could declare fealty to this administration ..but then - what if everything is left to the 'Clorox Cola' crowd?  Fauchi could not be fired but he danced on the head of a pin so as not to get shot or leave us without hope there was a light at the end of Trump Tunnel.

..even in the first bit - 'who knew' how large the reach of the CDC was?

Jim

[LaPerouseBay]

Thanks for that link Rando, that was fascinating. 

https://youtu.be/NdukJ8iG84s

[cnski]

Got the first of the two part Pfizer-Biontec COVID-19 yesterday. Arm is sore today but no adverse reactions. Time will tell....

[LaPerouseBay]

^Nice.
 
As I'm sure you are aware, the soreness is a good thing. 

Here is an interview that answers some other common questions.

https://youtu.be/eK0C5tFHze8?t=1397

I'm at the back of the line (89/100) in this nifty site:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/03/opinion/covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html

[cnski]

Ya, I'm now just concerned my place of employment planted a tracking device in my arm during the vaccination and will know when I leave work early to go wingding :-/

[PonoBill]

the last 25 minutes of the interview is pure gold.

[Admin]

Here are the bullet points.

One of the most infectious viruses we have ever seen.
Early misinformation about the role of asymptomatic transmission.
Available Vaccines are 95% effective and how incredible that is.
If only 30% don't take the vaccines, we are not going to put this behind us this year.
The Messenger RNA platform is what made the now available vaccines possible.
Less than 50% in US vaccinated against flu.
Certain US school systems where less than 25% of the kids are vaccinated against Measles. 
Why this was so different that Sars or Flu.
April 3rd CDC asked everyone to wear a mask when they only knew that this would protect others.  Learned later that it also provided individual protection.
Estimates that 60 to 80 Million in the US have been infected to date.  That 18 to 24% will not be nearly enough to stop this pandemic.
Says that 70% estimates for herd immunity is likely incorrect and that due to the incredibly infectious nature of the disease and believes that 85 to 90% immunity will be required.
Closest thing he has experience it terms of infectiousness is the measles (which is incredibly infectious).
Possibility of selectively managing access to now closed venues and activities based on proof of immunity. 
Up to 5 years to globally get rid of Covid 19.
Record low numbers of other respiratory illnesses due to current mitigation efforts and potential for future recommendations based on that.
Talks about mutation, potential for future mutation and the critical spike protein which they have targeted.  This starts at 40:00 and is really interesting.
Estimates immune protection at 18 to 36 months.
Talks about therapeutics and the importance of pre-hospital treatment.  Potential for in home hospitalization with possible assist from EMT's., etc.  Over 100,000 in hospitals right now.  He expects up to 12 weeks at these levels.
Says that data shows that it is not super spreaders that are the problem.  It is super spreader events and that family gatherings are the major contributor.
Talks about the role of strategic testing and how effective it has proven using college campuses as an example.
Offers data about mask efficacy. 

If there is a takeaway: Wear masks, get vaccinated when possible.   

[PonoBill]

The last four things on your list is why I say the last 25 minutes are the most valuable

[sflinux]

New England Journal of Medicine, Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine  (December 10, 2020):
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577
"two injections, 21 days apart"
"early protection by the vaccine, starting as soon as 12 days after the first dose."
"in the interval between the first and second dose, the observed vaccine efficacy against Covid-19 was 52%, and in the first 7 days after dose 2, it was 91%, reaching full efficacy against disease with onset at least 7 days after dose 2."
"This report includes 2 months of follow-up after the second dose of vaccine for half the trial participants and up to 14 weeks' maximum follow-up for a smaller subset.  Therefore, both the occurrence of adverse events more than 2 to 3.5 months after the second dose and more comprehensive information on the duration of protection remain to be determined"
"These data do not address whether vaccination prevents asymptomatic infection."
"The development of BNT162b2 was initiated on January 10, 2020, when the SARS-CoV-2 genetic sequence was released by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and disseminated globally by the GISAID (Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data) initiative."

It will be curious to see if vaccinated people act like asymptomatic people in the population, spreading it to others.
So 12 days after your first dose, if you haven't been exposed to Covid-19 yet, you now have a 48% chance of developing a Covid-19 case.
28 days after the vaccination is over (7 days after second dose;28 days after the first dose), if you haven't been exposed to Covid-19 yet, you now have a 5% chance of developing a Covid-19 case.
But we still don't know if those vaccinated, if exposed to Covid-19, can transmit/spread Covid-19 the same as an asymptomatic unvaccinated individual.
As of this month, the length of protection from the vaccination has only been shown to be effective for 2 to 3.5 months after vaccination.

[Thatspec]

I'm at the back of the line (89/100) in this nifty site:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/03/opinion/covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html

...I'm behind 19400 other folks in Hood River county (Isn't the population more like 14000ish?  )

[PonoBill]

So 12 days after your first dose, if you haven't been exposed to Covid-19 yet, you now have a 48% chance of developing a Covid-19 case.

Um, no.

[PonoBill]

I'm at the back of the line (89/100) in this nifty site:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/03/opinion/covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html

...I'm behind 19400 other folks in Hood River county (Isn't the population more like 14000ish?  )

Hood river county population is about 24,000. But yes, someone has to be last, and it's you.

[Beasho]

Regarding the CDC video: I am hopeful, but then again I always tend to be optimistic.  The Virus is a living thing and I am reminded of the Jurassic Park line "Life will find a way."  Fighting living micro-organisms is scary proposition.  But to the extent we have been playing god, and making headway then great.

I did like his final quote from Roosevelt.  Worth putting in writing:

""It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat."

[PonoBill]

Too true. Critics don't understand failure and error, which is the best reason to ignore them. Failure is how you learn--not because we need the pain, but because the only thing you learn from complete and early success is that you're a genius, even when you aren't.