Author Topic: A difficult read: 'Unraveling of America' in Rolling Stone  (Read 2184 times)

PonoBill

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Re: A difficult read: 'Unraveling of America' in Rolling Stone
« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2020, 07:48:49 AM »
Short read. That didn't exactly pan out, did it.
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Re: A difficult read: 'Unraveling of America' in Rolling Stone
« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2020, 09:30:46 AM »
Short read. That didn't exactly pan out, did it.

Farrs law describes the shape of the curve, it is just that viruses follow roughly the same rate down and up. SARS, Spanish Flu, CV, and others all follow it. The true shape of the curve can only be vetted once the death totals have worked their way through the bureaucratic snake. There are too many variables in "cases". Using case load for an "opening" metric is criminal, but every government body is doing that. We are on the runout of the curve, despite "exploding, spiking, or virus pockets". Deaths properly attributed and properly dated tell the actual story.

I have to admit I don't read any news articles on this anymore, I just look at a couple of state data tables (ICU and deaths) once or twice a week and compare to a SARS e-curve. The COVID news reports are grotesquely incompetent, politically slanted, or overly emotional.



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Re: A difficult read: 'Unraveling of America' in Rolling Stone
« Reply #17 on: August 22, 2020, 01:56:15 AM »
SUP Leave,

There is no one curve for Covid.  This is a human event where human action has proven to determine outcome.  Farrs law is entirely inapplicable to the US curve, the India Curve, or the Brazil Curve and would be a poor fit for the rest of the world.  (chart below)

The US, through absent leadership, misinformation, and data parsing is responsible for our abysmal performance.  We already passed France in deaths per million citizens and we will soon pass Italy, the UK, and Spain.  Those countries had initially been considered to have had the hardest initial hits from Covid but have taken the appropriate steps.  (chart 2 below).

Furthermore, this is an ongoing event and all expectations are that Covid will spike again in the fall.  As they have always been, the ranges given in these estimates are shaped by human choices and behaviors.  The overall curve has not yet been established but there is no element of this that resembles Farrs.  That is simply obfuscation.  (chart 3 from the IMHE below).
« Last Edit: August 22, 2020, 02:14:20 AM by Admin »

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Re: A difficult read: 'Unraveling of America' in Rolling Stone
« Reply #18 on: August 24, 2020, 11:05:08 AM »
Hi Admin

Sure there will be a curve, just not until it is over and data is reconciled. This probably happens in some universities after 2021.

The Daily new confirmed curve is simply a reporting curve. Meaning that as deaths get attributed to CV they get reported to CDC and show up here. Only some states report date of death so you get artificially inflated back end numbers. This graph checks out in that regard. Again, these will have to be correctly dated to show the picture.

The confirmed per million, also has only one way to go (unless we reconcile some book keeping). I would guess it will plateau by mid-Sep, somewhere south of Italy, but just barely. US has a few states higher than Italy but rest of country varies. You also have to remember that our reporting “with or from” is about 35/65 split respectively. Other countries could easily do different. I have a friend who is actively fighting their grandma’s death certificate. Grandma was 90+, fell and broke her hip and died in hospital the way many people do and she was coded as C19 death (she did test positive, but was asymptomatic).

The Daily deaths chart is the one I have been talking about. Once the dates are properly attributed you will see a double hump matching SARS or MERS, just google a couple. I am not up on embedding stuff.

We are pregnant with the idea that we are “squashing or getting control of, or managing” this virus, and thereby saving lives. It’s a nice thought, but it is as if all other ways of dying do not exist.  So yes, human interaction has an effect on CV, but focusing only on one health outcome for a huge diverse country is a horrible mistake. Back in the beginning Beasho was pointing out ( and I was echoing) that there was less all-cause deaths due to the shutdown (accidental deaths mostly), but that has reversed -badly. The predictions of deaths due to timely diagnoses (cancer), and despair (suicide) are going to increase (are already there in the excess death charts). I will not be surprised to see Orange Man getting the blame for too heavy of lock downs and closing schools as this data comes to life. He should receive this blame, by letting political epidemiologists run the show and utilizing a broader consortium of experts steering towards a more risk rational approach.

We have known the “who” of this disease for a long time. The average age of death from Covid is 80+, the average age of death for Americans is 80-. The average age of death from cancer or despair is something like 75 (my math). Take 100 people dying of CV and 50 people dying from these other cases. The years of life lost are 50 years, and 250 years respectively. Does a year of life have value?

I just saw an article today that in Hong Kong they have a verified reinfection of CV. Just like every other corona virus (cold) you can get another round of the same thing as the virus mutates. Thus, the vaccine efficiency will be reduced as we are chasing the tail of the snake.

Lockdowns should never be used again - a massive health and economic mistake.
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Re: A difficult read: 'Unraveling of America' in Rolling Stone
« Reply #19 on: August 25, 2020, 04:45:56 AM »
Italy is adding .03 deaths per Million a day now.  They have effectively minimized the issue.  France, GB and Spain are showing similar numbers.  The US is adding 3.1 deaths per million each day.  Our death rate is 155 times the death rate of Italy at the moment.  Even if the US death rate were to dramatically reduce (not projected on the IMHE model above) we would pass all of those countries in the upcoming months.  That is the result of action vs denial. 
« Last Edit: August 25, 2020, 04:48:49 AM by Admin »

 


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