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Author Topic: COVID mortality calculator...  (Read 746 times)

Wetstuff

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COVID mortality calculator...
« on: July 21, 2020, 06:38:49 AM »
This will give you a possible percentage of outcome—having contracted the virus—based your general health and the stats so far on records of people who have had this viral infection.  You may need a copy of some of your last labs to increase the accuracy. 

There is one test, the %FMD that I would bet most people have never had (incl. me) so just move the slider into the Yellow zone to 'zero' the age to the right.  Buena Suerte!

https://profile.covid-age.com



Jim
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Beasho

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Re: COVID mortality calculator...
« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2020, 03:06:54 PM »
OK.  This is good news:

Mortality Rate 0.22% for me.

Latest data from the State I am in (Hit Early) shows a 1% Positive Test Rate. July 20th, 2020.

In other words 1 / 100 people tested are coming back positive.   Does this suggest that FEWER than 1/100 people have it?   
« Last Edit: July 21, 2020, 03:26:26 PM by Beasho »

blackeye

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Re: COVID mortality calculator...
« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2020, 10:12:43 AM »
What useful individual purpose can be made of the result? How would your behaviour change?

Wetstuff

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Re: COVID mortality calculator...
« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2020, 06:17:47 AM »
Blackeye...  "How would your behaviour change?" ...probably not much, but more information helps maintain a focus on avoidance and exposure much as does BluePlanet's Balance Surfer reminds my body what balance is required when I hit the water.

As someone with comparatively few calendars left I am tons more aware of my environment and exposures than many of my friends.  I like to think - I try to think ahead.  An ambulance is @20min from us, so we keep oxygen at home. (here too - one of my employees was not so healthy)  My wife is a retired RN, we have all the common devices you would be exposed to upon entering the ER.  Frankly, an EKG strip or finger prick, has calmed the nerves of my wife probably more than once, as she has a severe tree-nut allergy and bouts of hypoglycemia.

A friend of a friend who builds racecars hangs out a his shop smoking tiny cigars (cigarettes are too expensive) with a persistent cough and has the attitude 'When it's my time.' ...and would never wear a mask for political reasons.  There are lotsa of directions and opinions.

One other detail... The outfit that presents this is not offering this pro bono for the good of society.  They make a device, so far not-FDA approved that provides that one bit of information in their calcualtor.

Beasho,  You're 1000% better with numbers than I, but this was a 'death' calculator, no?  I see things like '1/100 where when tested' only relating to 'those tested'.  If you tested 100 in one of those buildings in LA that house the homeless, would not the numbers likely change?
I still cannot grasp 'herd immunity' 

....in NYC. May 20 reference...

Antibody tests of approximately 8,000 people in New York City revealed an infection rate highest in the Bronx borough of New York City. While the overall positive rate is 19.9% for the city, the Bronx has a positive rate of 34%. Brooklyn has a rate of 29% and Queens has a rate of 25%. Rates in the Manhattan and Staten Island boroughs are 20% and 19%, respectively.





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blackeye

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Re: COVID mortality calculator...
« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2020, 11:23:12 AM »
...more information helps maintain a focus on avoidance and exposure...

Yes, I suppose. Personally I have tried to make masks, gloves, hand-washing, sterilization, etc, standard practises to the point they are automatic, and at that point I am doing all I can to quell this virus. However, for the sake of my mental health, I am trying to limit "doom scrolling" - a practise of dwelling on all the shit that is happening around us. I am well aware of my co-morbidities (as you seem to be of your own situation), and just don't need to know my number. I still don't think it does anyone any good, particularly as you give up intimate health details to the wild.

Oxygen is very handy.

SanoSlatchSup

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Re: COVID mortality calculator...
« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2020, 10:26:38 AM »
Wish you didn't need all of the lab tests just to play along. Was doing really well with the standard stuff (age, height, weight, BMI, BP...), but then got waylaid with the "Vitamin D", "AngioDefender or %FMD", and "HbA1c" stuff. :(

Then again, as blackeye says, I don't know wth I'd do with whatever number/age showed up, as I'm pretty much as healthy as I'm going to be, or maybe should say as healthy as I'm willing to live my life to be.

With this whole CV thing, we as a family have and still take as much precautions as possible with wearing masks when social distancing is prohibited, and wash/sanitize our hands after touching some publicly exposed whatevers.

But I still hang at the beach, and surf/foil with all of my buds - who I hope have been taking the same or similar precautions - w/o masks. Although we were never really sitting or standing on top of each other, so we've always pretty much social distanced even before all of this CV stuff....our typical umbrella town hang out away from the rest of the crowds anyway...



So I guess all I'm saying is that even if I had been able to get a score from the test, I'm pretty sure that it would have only been a "hey, that's kinda cool" kind of thing for me, and in all likelihood, whatever it said wouldn't have changed the way I've been doing things all along already.
Me: 6'1"/185...6'0" Kings Foil Board...6'0" Chelu Foil Board...9'6" Bob Pearson "Laird Noserider"...9'6" Costa Azul Wide Body...14' Lahui Kai "Manta"...8'0" WaveStorm for when proning urges still hit, and 7'3" Chuck Glynn foil board backup.

PonoBill

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Re: COVID mortality calculator...
« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2020, 08:20:06 PM »
I wear a mask a lot. Of course, I did that long before COVID, I don't want to breathe the shit I'm sanding, grinding, welding or laser cutting. I put on a mask with charcoal canisters before I mix or use volatile chemicals and before I start painting--even just a little rattle-can touch-up. I tend to put one on and leave it on, I've frequently left my shop, got in the truck to head home, and realized I still have my mask on. I used to have asthma but I got rid of it by doing breathing exercises religiously. My asthma doc told me it wouldn't help, that no one gets cured of asthma, but changed his mind after I was able to blow better than 100 percent for a few years. He said "that's it, you're wasting my time coming here, you're done." But I protect my lungs--I don't want to start huffing on inhalers again.

I used to have everything up to and including supplied air, but now I just mostly use good 3M double canister masks with silicone facepieces and a variety of specialized canisters.

My favorite mask for everything but painting and volatiles is this one--very comfortable. I have slightly different ones that have exhalation valves on the cheeks. I bought a bunch of them five years ago and still have a few remaining. the liners are replaceable. Not ideal for protecting other people, but masks without them push away from your cheeks and have the same end result. I can, and often do, wear this all day long--I just forget it's there. Harbor Freight--about 17 bucks. If you want to wear a mask you can wear without screwing around with it, try this.



« Last Edit: July 24, 2020, 08:29:47 PM by PonoBill »
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