Covid-19 - the Second Wave?

[LaPerouseBay]

Good news on testing.

[Beasho]

Good news on testing.

Long video to get to the good news: 

Cheaper More Pervasive Testing EVEN if less accurate but MORE indicative of Infectious people.

PS: My daughter got a precautionary test it took a week.  WTF!  (negative for Covid).  Another Co-Worker was tested having spent a camping trip with someone who a few days later tested positive.  He had driven home in the car for 5 hours with the vector guy.  The Test results took 5 days.  He then tested negative for Covid (he was healthy 24 year old).  Both nasal tests, probing the brain, taking WAY too long.

[Beasho]

The media is hammering FL, TX, SC, AZ and CA for increased cases.  Claiming a 2nd Wave.

Here is a view that separates states:

1) Hit Early
2) "Round 3" current Breakout States

Hit Early: Highest % of Deaths in the Country. Currently NY, NJ, CT, RI and MA have a positive test rate in the 1% range. Currently only 1 in 63 people testing positive. vs. numbers like AZ, TX, FL, and SC. These were the deadliest states in the country. At their peak more than 1,000% as deadly as those shown above - NO COMPARISON. But no second wave. This is good. Masks working (I assume). Quarantine rules in effect. Acting like Europe. Crushed early super cautious.

First Wave North East. Note - No Lag in Deaths vs. Cases. This is nearly 100% consistent with every country in the world that was hit hard. Doesn't make sense but has something to do with testing vs people infected much earlier and dying.

[Beasho]

Round 3 Breakout States.

There is a previous peak in Early May.  The latest numbers are growing.

Is this a second wave or the 1st wave that never hit them?

Note the death rate is much, much lower than these states experienced in April and May.

[Beasho]

See these Graphs for 3 of the Deadliest Countries in the World:  Italy, Spain, United Kingdom

These look nearly Identical to the "Hit Early" States in the United States above (NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA).

Note:  NO Lag in Deaths vs Cases.  (maybe 1 week)

This doesn't make sense but is likely a function of 1) People who are susceptible and die quickly 2) Poor Testing

[justsomeguy]

From my casual observations of FL's dashboard, the age distribution of cases seems to have shifted to much younger portion of population. Wonder if thats correlatable to lower death rate ... i.e. younger age group is better able to recover vs. senior citizens who are less likely to recover. Could also be reflecting that strict precautions for older portion of population has helped, while younger portion of population is back out and not necessarily being as cautious.

[SUP Leave]

According to @EthicalSkeptic

The 13 hot states that make up 72% of current cases (TX, FL, AZ, CA, NV, AL, AR, GA, LA, OK, MS, SC, NC) appear to have hit a peak on the 15th of July which means the entire country is now in a decreasing case model. There will be 29 days rising fatalities to follow -- so I imagine that will be the next headline.

Look out for words like "surging, spiking, rampant" before death rates.

CV 19 is below an epidemic (for 6 weeks) and all data/response is a mish mash of science, politics, and human behavior. While the virus behaves as a natural phenomenon like every other virus before it.

[Admin]

While the virus behaves as a natural phenomenon like every other virus before it.

Hi SupLeave,

Viruses don't all behave the same.  This one for instance has surged again in the hottest summer months.  Deaths are surging upwards again.  This surge is appearing in the US with a significant lag from positive case testing.  One of the few things we know for sure about this virus is how critical human behavior is to its spread.

[SUP Leave]

While the virus behaves as a natural phenomenon like every other virus before it.

Hi SupLeave,

Viruses don't all behave the same.  This one for instance has surged again in the hottest summer months.  Deaths are surging upwards again.  This surge is appearing in the US with a significant lag from positive case testing.  One of the few things we know for sure about this virus is how critical human behavior is to its spread.

Maybe? After all is said and done the worldwide epidemiological curves are probably going to look a lot like the original SARS, just multiplied by 40.

I mean the "crush the curve" places are having a rise in cases. I.e. Australia, Japan, Spain, California. And the places that had early success are having a rise in cases Fla, Texas, etc. It is convenient to think that we have control via policy, but nature (including human nature) win out, in my opinion. I just don't think it will go away through anything other than the natural life cycle of the virus. That could be expedited by a vaccine, but that is no guarantee.

I still have 250k deaths lodged in my head for the U. S from or with CV. By and large (except for NY) hospital capacity has been available, which was the entire point of the behavioral modifications. So, to that end I do understand and affirm the modifications to human behavior and prophylactics.

I wish they asked all positive tests if they wore masks in public. I keep hearing stories of people getting it who "did everything right". Seems to me like there is either a different infection path (protein/fecal) or there is a blood or body type that is more prone.

[PonoBill]

The death rate has slowed with more information about care of critical patients, if only because there isn't a rush to intubate now. But I think 250K deaths is all but inevitable.

[Admin]

Hi SupLeave,

Cases are still rising.  Deaths are still rising and will continue to rise with some lag to cases.  The US has 1/4 of the World's deaths with only 4% of the World's population and while essentially all of the other early hit countries have through human choice flattened their death tolls, the US has taken a turn for the worse. 

Bill is correct that we are doing better at saving infected patients but sadly the rate of infection is well outpacing that percentage of improvement and this is getting worse.  Our ability to succesfully treat people declines as hospitalizations rise.  Also, non-covid sick patients cannot get care.  It is a compounding problem.

[Area 10]

The US has a long way to go until the deaths per capita are as bad as the UK or several.othwr countries.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Cumulative deaths when not adjusted for the size of the country's population aren't very meaningful.

[Admin]

Yes.  The UK is like a small US region.  We have regions of similar populations that have fared much better and much worse than the UK.  New York and New Jersey alone have more deaths than the UK with a fraction of the population.  The US is unfortunately way worse than Europe as a whole (or the EU as a whole).

The UK has also done much better at keeping numbers low after a horrible initial hit.  This is where the US is failing. 

[TallDude]

The US is unfortunately way worse than Europe as a whole (or the EU as a whole).
 This is where the US is failing.

We have more stupid people.

[LaPerouseBay]

This should be interesting.



This is what Dr. Kory deems offensive.  Starts at about 11:00.   

https://www.c-span.org/video/?507035-1/senate-homeland-security-committee-holds-hearing-covid-19-pandemic&live