Author Topic: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?  (Read 4994 times)

sflinux

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #45 on: July 07, 2020, 12:04:58 PM »
The Spanish flu lasted 2 years, killing 675,000 americans.  With covid-19, 6 months in the numbers are 133,000 americans (and some argue those numbers are undereported, (i.e. up to half the actual).  Covid-19 has the potential to be our generation's Spanish flu.
The states: NY (~4/12), CT (~4/26), RI (~5/27), MA (~4/25), NJ (~5/2) have all hit their peak.
The states now in the spotlight are and CA (which presently has a projected peak of 9/3), FL (which presently has a projected peak of 9/4), TX (which presently has a projected peak of 9/5), AZ (which presently has a projected peak of 9/16).
To give some perspective, CA presently has the same deaths as NY the first week in April, which is 2 weeks before they hit the top of their curve.  The peak for CA is presently projected to be August/September/October, whereas NY was hardest hit in March/April/May.
Places like HI have been 6 months behind CA numbers, so don't expect potential problems there until 2021.
With respect to Canada: Ontario and Quebec have passed their peak.  Alberta hasn't.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2020, 12:14:38 PM by sflinux »
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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #46 on: July 08, 2020, 02:55:49 AM »
If the death rate stays at or below 4-5% of all cause deaths week over week, then the CDC will not be able to label it a epidemic anymore based on their own metrics. All cause is somewhere south of 8000 deaths per day. There are still a lot more things to be afraid of than CV (cancer, being fat and being old, followed by being dumb, and being unlucky).

This isn't a short term problem. IMHE just raised their estimate to 208,255 deaths by the beginning of November (220,000 if mandates are eased).  That would be by the beginning of the next "Covid Season".  IMHE has been very conservative and they are not even indicating a large spike in deaths from the recent spike in cases that some other groups are (there is a big divide in opinions on how that will play out).   Dr Fauci is saying that herd immunity will not be possible, even with a vaccine (should that occur).   We don't know what the status will be in regards to immunity of all of those who have already been infected.  It is very possible that all will be again reinfectable.  It seems like your point is that because there are other significant causes of death that somehow this is less valid.  We are still losing a 911 worth of people every 5 days.  It seems like there is a talking point to categorize those as less important, culpable,  or even silly deaths.  The divide on this is pretty remarkable. 

« Last Edit: July 08, 2020, 03:30:31 AM by Admin »

deepmud

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #47 on: July 08, 2020, 08:37:53 PM »
on facebook - I know, don't go there and you won't see so much stupid - but on facebook, coworker was talking about his covid tests and "a friend of a friend" chimed in extra helpings of mis-used "facts",

"*Coworked -name withheld" it would be far better to get early in my opinion, for the body to start developing t-cells to fight of later waves better, what doesn't kill us only makes us stronger. I wonder why even do a antibodies test if its so un-accurate*, seems like a waste of money and if you test positive on the anti-bodies test do they mark you down as having covid 19 or just a corona virus? 🤔Any who thanks for the clarification.
 · "friend of friend of Coworker"


ME - to "Friend of friend of Coworker" =  it's not just about the individual (and the "so inaccurate" - possible isn't LIKELY - just that scientists almost never say "absolutely". It's pretty accurate*) - this is a new virus to humans - so who has it, who has had it, who have they contacted, if they had it weeks ago vs having it now - all big unknowns that really matter. If it doesn't kill you, it may NOT make you stronger. There are young people, 20's, 30's, with heart attacks and strokes (for some reason many doctors are seeing "thick blood" - freaky thick goopy blood in patients with Covid19. Not all of them. Fun times) . long term lung scarring - some of the survivors going from 100% normal to needing a lung transplant. Athletes are reporting 3 to 10 percent degradation of their lung capacity( or worse - https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/30/health/coronavirus-athlete-covid-19-ahmad-ayyad-john-hopkins-trnd/index.html ). Too bad for the US in the next Olympics if we have a high rate of contagion. The arguments back and forth masks are silly - they have, and always have, been better at keeping the sick from infecting the well. No, they don't capture the random individual virus very well - but how does it get airborne? Was it jumping off your face? Nope - it's riding some fluids or scraped off on your skin with some mucus. One of the wonderful 😒 aspects of Covid19 is the LOOOONNNNG period of time with no symptoms. You are pretty much fine - maybe one the ones without noticeable symptoms - ever - and you are spraying spit out all the time You don't have to told "say it don't spray it" you are a human. The point that a virus CAN get past a mask is not the question -the SPIT you are making - as a normal human, you do it - it MOSTLY held in by the mask. The masks get wet after awhile - and it's not condensate -it's saliva. It fogs/sprays off your vocal cords. Get a happy laugh going among friends - big ol' sprays of saliva. If we ALL wore masks and washed our hands and were careful - we could pretty much shut this down in a couple months AND still have jobs. Oh - and the "not just you" thing - so you are fine, say. No problems - one of those who gets it and no symptoms. You visit (Co-Worker) , he gets it. He has no symptoms. His family gets it - some get sick, but they are ok. Even some otherwise healthy toddlers have died of this but assume they are all good (Co-worker has young kids) . He works with me. I get it. I am fine - I'm healthy too. It kills my wife (yes, she is immune suppressed). I don't want this in my house! Oh - my son who lives at home still, works in a nursing home. Let's say he gets it because - as typical, I'm symptom-free for 2 weeks and wasn't careful enough at home - he, never shows symptoms, goes to work and wipes out 50 of our veterans who are being taken care of after years of serving our country. Does that which kills our veterans make us stronger? Wear your mask, be careful, use social distancing when you can. Try to help those who will NOT be stronger from this stuff. I won't get into what a horror 2 weeks on a breathing tube is - just do what you can to try to keep this from killing/harming someone - it might be YOU.
*re: accurate - FoFoCoWrker had a CDC statement bookmarked that the anti-bodies test could show false positives.

So I am all bla bla bla wear a mask - I say it all the time. It's about containing your spit not filtering microns.

Then he pm'd me - I got the screenshot. Man, 40 plus years later, I screwed up the "if brains were gas" comeback... but he didn't know it lol....


So -   in places you have to in close with people - wear a mask. If you can - don't get close. Click that link on the buff dude - damn, being a mini-Lou Ferrigno gets you NOWHERE with this virus and he ISN'T even ON the "charts" - too much attention is being focused on "only XXX deaths"  - there are plenty of people saying it was TERRIBLE and it didn't make them stronger. Plenty of "I have had a fever for 6 weeks now and it won't go away".   Don't shut down the country - wear a mask and hope you are lucky and it REALLY is doing NOTHING. Hooray. A win. If it does nothing we all win.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/09/seven-weeks-with-coronavirus/?arc404=true

crap that's not the one - she had symptoms/fevers for  2 months but died anyway. OK maybe NOW if she got it with the better treatments available currently she'd live.

Maybe?


Wear your mask. Wash your hands. Obey your commie masters (what a faawking moron)  Don't get this stuff. Don't assume you have a handle on "the numbers/ the rates/ the odds" - the charts don't tell the story.  Don't figure because YOUR hospital on your area isn't overloaded it's fake. I mean - don't panic - it's not smallpox or a ebola-on-steroids - but it's not fake.

lucabrasi

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #48 on: July 09, 2020, 12:05:58 PM »
Dallas Morning News

"..........On Tuesday, outfielder Joey Gallo, who has not been allowed to participate in team workouts yet, tested negative for the coronavirus at a private Dallas laboratory using a nasal swab test. It was his second negative test in the last 10 days. But he’s also tested positive twice in the same span using the PCR/saliva test that MLB’s sanctioned lab — Utah-based Sports Medicine Research and Testing Laboratories — uses......"

"....Gallo was first tested on June 27 via a saliva test, which indicated the presence of coronavirus, although he’s been asymptomatic. He took a nasal swab test two days later, which deemed him negative. He then took another saliva test on July 2, and the Rangers received word Sunday that was positive again......"

who knows.
How frustrating that must be.
I do know I really wish it wasn't an election year for something like this to bust out.
still the first wave easily......not even sure if it's coming down the home stretch yet.

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #49 on: July 11, 2020, 03:16:07 AM »
This is like watching a slow motion accident.  Cases have risen 3.5x in 3 weeks, hospitalizations are hitting record highs in a much more widespread manner than in the first peak and deaths are now increasing as well.  The deaths are alarming because that obviously lags infections by a good deal.  How much of a lag we don't know but we are back at or over the 1000 deaths a day mark based on where we were a while ago (2-3 weeks?) and we are going to be seeing 5 times those infections in the upcoming week...and no real changes yet to alter the exponential growth of cases.  This is summer.  This was going to be our warm weather, outdoor respite.  Barring a very effective vaccine we are in for a rough stretch. 



« Last Edit: July 11, 2020, 03:21:59 AM by Admin »

Dwight (DW)

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #50 on: July 11, 2020, 06:20:52 AM »
The only hopeful thing I’ve seen here in Florida, is everywhere I go people are now wearing masks indoors. About 95% usage.

In the early days of full lockdown, mask usage was 15-20% at best.

It sure would be nice to see this reverse, just on mask usage and bar closures.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2020, 06:22:36 AM by Dwight (DW) »

ninja tuna

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #51 on: July 11, 2020, 07:54:53 AM »

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #52 on: July 11, 2020, 08:43:40 AM »
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

A lot more tests now

More tests for sure, but big shortages still.  At least links like this one should prove to the doubtful that more tests do not result in more positives.

ninja tuna

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #53 on: July 11, 2020, 10:51:39 AM »
Admin, how does that show more tests do not equal more positives.  The percentages of positives are going up as the tests go up.  Only slightly but still going up (percentages).  But even if that percentage stay the same, the more tests equals more positives.

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #54 on: July 11, 2020, 10:52:55 AM »
The only hopeful thing I’ve seen here in Florida, is everywhere I go people are now wearing masks indoors. About 95% usage.

In the early days of full lockdown, mask usage was 15-20% at best.

It sure would be nice to see this reverse, just on mask usage and bar closures.


I would think the increased mask wearing might have a positive effect. Good to see you’re not in one of the areas where people think this somehow infringes on their rights or freedom.
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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #55 on: July 11, 2020, 11:37:58 AM »
Using voluntary testing, with unreliable tests,  to determine accurately how covid19 is spreading is a joke. My engineering friends talk about measuring with a yardstick, marking with a piece of chalk, and cutting with a chainsaw, then measuring the results with a micrometer.

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #56 on: July 11, 2020, 02:53:09 PM »
Admin, how does that show more tests do not equal more positives.  The percentages of positives are going up as the tests go up.  Only slightly but still going up (percentages).  But even if that percentage stay the same, the more tests equals more positives.

You provided the link to the data. Do you really not understand what the first graph shows? I'd explain it, but I assume you're either joking or motivated to dismiss even obvious proof.
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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #57 on: July 12, 2020, 03:37:27 AM »
Admin, how does that show more tests do not equal more positives.  The percentages of positives are going up as the tests go up.  Only slightly but still going up (percentages).  But even if that percentage stay the same, the more tests equals more positives.

Hi Ninja,

The graph that you had posted a link to shows positive tests and positive tests as a percentage of total tests going steeply down at the same time the # of test being given was inclining.  This period lasted all through April, May and early June.  Positive tests dropped from 20% to 4% while number of tests rose from 150,000 to 500,000.

sflinux

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #58 on: July 17, 2020, 08:56:02 AM »
I think it is interesting to look at the average monthly covid-19 deaths, as it gives some perspective.
NY March 50
NY April 733
NY May 201
NY June 75
NY July 26
CA April 62
CA May 69
CA June 62
CA July 87 (current) - 113 (projected)
CA August 135 (projected)
CA September 113 (projected)
CA October 83 (projected)

The first wave was awful in NY.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 09:21:00 AM by sflinux »
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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #59 on: July 17, 2020, 09:26:12 AM »
Daily deaths continue to increase.  On the news last night they gave 3-4 weeks as the current thought on lag between cases and resulting deaths.  If so we are just now seeing results of a time with 20,000 to 30,000 cases per day.  We are over 70,000 a day now and rising fast. 


 


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