Author Topic: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?  (Read 5006 times)

headmount

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #30 on: June 25, 2020, 05:47:51 PM »
We haven't had a case on Maui for some time now.  People here are wearing masks and everyone I know has conversations at a distance.  I'm proud of our island.  We're isolated geographically but initially we had people here from all over.  Now the island is opened up but quarantine is still in place for incoming people.  So if you want to come, go through the hoops and dig it that we want to keep cases bouncing along the zero line. 

Tom

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #31 on: June 25, 2020, 07:19:35 PM »
We haven't had a case on Maui for some time now.  People here are wearing masks and everyone I know has conversations at a distance.  I'm proud of our island.  We're isolated geographically but initially we had people here from all over.  Now the island is opened up but quarantine is still in place for incoming people.  So if you want to come, go through the hoops and dig it that we want to keep cases bouncing along the zero line.

Hope you can stay safe, but tourists will soon be there. Breaking news:

 

Effective August 1st, all travelers arriving in Hawai‘i from out-of-state will be required to get a valid COVID-19 test prior to their arrival, and to show proof of a negative test result, to avoid the 14-day quarantine.

Out-of-state travelers arriving in Hawai‘i must get a PCR test prior to arrival from any testing location approved by the Hawai‘i State Department of Health. Evidence of a negative test result must be provided upon arrival in Hawai‘i. Without this, passengers arriving from out-of-state will be subject to the 14-day quarantine. No testing will be provided upon arrival at the airport.

The Health Department is still in the process of developing this program but anticipates requiring an FDA-approved PCR test from a CLIA certified laboratory. Travelers will be required to provide printed or emailed pre-test certification as evidence of a negative test result. Travelers will be responsible for the cost of the pre-travel test.

Temperature checks will continue at airports across the state. Anyone with a temperature higher than 100.4 degrees or who is experiencing other symptoms will be required to undergo a secondary screening at the airport with trained healthcare staff.

In addition, travelers will be required to fill out the State Travel and Health form.



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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #32 on: June 29, 2020, 11:21:48 AM »
I was in Phoenix last week. They are a "hot zone" for C-19, during the time I was there. Experiencing their "second wave" but it is interesting because AZ was one of the least locked down states so I am thinking it is most likely their first wave. I asked a lot of locals where the cases were happening and none really had any good info for me at all. They said the same thing as Talldude "Don't watch the news."

There is a statewide mandatory mask requirement in AZ, except when you are outdoors, or actively eating and drinking indoors. Seems to me the mask itself only works if properly worn and utilized. I would say that wearing a mask into a bar, and then taking it off when the beer gets served is just a fools errand. Either you are serious about preventing yourself from catching this or you are not. If you are serious stay home and don't pretend that wearing a mask sometimes is going to save ya.

Same thing on a plane. You are supposed to wear a mask but once you have the cocktail peanuts you can take it off. I guess the same as wearing your seatbelt while you are seated but take it off to go to the head. I guess I am either not serious, a fool, or I just like livin, probably all 3.

My daughters are re-starting sports but they have to wear a mask. They tell me basketball with a mask is hard, not just the breathing but the peripheral vision. I will find out when I start playing with the kids this week.

As far as testing and statistics. Just show me the deaths above background. The testing has no coordination on a statewide let alone federal level. There is far too much noise in the data. In AZ they were reporting positive tests for people tested over and over during hospital stays for other reasons than CV.
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PonoBill

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #33 on: June 29, 2020, 07:37:28 PM »
In general, the USA response is a shambolic mess, with no direction from the feds other than the CDC, and they seem to be politicized as well. I expect to see deaths declining thanks to improved treatment of the most seriously ill, but dying isn't the only threat. Most of the people who get serious symptoms--even those not hospitalized--have lasting issues, some of them quite severe. It's not clear that these will improve over time. I'm not happy with the thought of having long-term medical issues that restrain me from doing the things I do.

The use of masks is certainly not a panacea--any kind of personal protective equipment needs to be used intelligently for optimal effectiveness. And yes, I see idiots doing all kinds of stupid things with their masks. In theory, the primary benefit of wearing even a home-made mask is that if you have the virus you won't spread it as easily. People say all kinds of pseudo-reasonable things like a virus is too small to be filtered by a mask. This is true, but a free-floating virus particle will dehydrate or oxidize in seconds. It's droplets of snot containing and protecting the virus that the mask stops--or at least reduces the number that gets to your susceptible tissue. It seems fairly clear that the amount of virus that makes it into your upper respiratory tract that determines to some degree the severity of your infection. If nothing else a mask might move your infection from serious to not so bad or even asymptomatic. Far more likely you won't get infected if you're wearing a mask--even if it's crappy, leaks, and is too coarse--as long as you are taking the other rational steps to protect yourself like washing your hands when you may have come in contact with something freshly coated with infected snot, and keeping your distance from other people.

If businesses are to reopen, the mask thing is an absolute necessity. If you're asymptomatic, walking around in a grocery store, to your table at a restaurant, or to your seat on a plane then the mask dramatically reduces the likelihood of you infecting other people. Once you're in your seat the distancing rules can be effective. The recycled air that blows on your face in an airplane is not the same as air circulating in a cruise ship--there's nothing left alive in that airplane air, for reasons you can look up if you like.

Despite people having no training in using them, the limited quality of available masks, and the occasional ranting idiots who should be frog-marched out of whatever closed space they insist on entering maskless, any governor has only three options--accept whatever happens by ignoring dramatically increasing case loads, reinstituting lockdowns, or requiring masks. Of those three I know exactly what I'd choose--if only because it shifts the burden and the blame from the governor to the goofballs that wear their mask under their nose, or take it off to talk, cough or sneeze (I've seen this).
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TallDude

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #34 on: July 02, 2020, 09:15:59 PM »
Cases are up a little, so second wave is happening. My wife is being tested for it right now. Speaking of testing and reporting. It seems the government officials and the media don't know the difference between testing for the virus and testing for the antibodies. Yes that will throw all the data off....

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/o-c-mistakenly-included-antibody-tests-in-figure-for-diagnostic-covid-19-tests-for-weeks/

"
Orange County mistakenly included serology tests in its cumulative count of coronavirus tests administered for five weeks beginning in late April, then failed to correct the figure for another three weeks after the error was discovered, health officials said Thursday.

The oversight resulted in 30,000 serology tests being added to the “cumulative tests to date” figure reported on the O.C. Health Care Agency website between April 28 and June 3, said Dr. Clayton Chau, the agency’s director.
"
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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #35 on: July 03, 2020, 02:59:25 AM »
The testing and the reporting on the testing has certainly been a mess all along.  Even so, we are looking at a huge spike in cases that would not be explained by the discrepancies that we have become used to.  We have seen almost a doubling of cases in the week since this thread started and I saw Dr. Fauci last night on the news saying he expects a doubling again this week. 
« Last Edit: July 03, 2020, 03:03:05 AM by Admin »

PonoBill

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #36 on: July 03, 2020, 07:15:33 AM »
This is the "going exponential everywhere at once" problem, we're going to see some extreme numbers shortly. Reclosing is going to be messy with no federal political cover or direction. Governors will drag their feet and some will do incredibly stupid stuff and their constituents will be even less inclined to follow directions. with fifty inconsistent state policies fragmented into 48,000 individual city policies, we have a huge swimming pool with varied regulations on peeing in the pool. The theory was that we'd see pulses in infection rate as restrictions eased then tightened but we'd stay below saturation levels for hospitals. That isn't going to happen. The good news is that the death rate has declined with better treatment for extreme cases. The bad news is we're going to have a lot of very sick people, and the economy is likely to tank again.
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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #37 on: July 04, 2020, 02:35:16 AM »
Here is an interesting article on ventilator mortality rates (30-50%) https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/more-covid-19-patients-are-surviving-ventilators-in-the-icu/2020/07/03/2e3c3534-bbca-11ea-8cf5-9c1b8d7f84c6_story.html .  The tough thing is that right now 4 states are near or above ICU capacity.  Fauci is calling for daily case #'s to rise above 100,000 a day next week.  If so those systems go into distress mode.  Of course, the faucet is still running.  No real action has been taken that would change what has caused this spike in cases.  It is odd how quickly we adapt.  When we first heard of 10 cases in the West that was alarming, but 60,000 a day, no problem.

Hail SUPin

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #38 on: July 04, 2020, 04:49:06 AM »
I live in NE Florida and it’s disheartening to hear the reasoning behind why some people won’t wear a mask. One of my coworkers told me he doesn’t wear a mask because this sickness isn’t caused by a virus. It’s caused by the radiation being emitted from the 5G towers. His wife works in the “medical field” so he knows.

It’s starting to feel like that Stephen King book The Mist around here. Because after hearing what a lot of people think about the virus, I’m more afraid of the people I have to see this through with in my community than the virus itself.

Beasho

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #39 on: July 05, 2020, 11:26:24 AM »
This thread was titled "Second Wave" but are we seeing

1) A second wave or just
2) The first wave of states that were initially NOT hit hard

I am sitting right now in Connecticut with a direct view of Rhode Island and New York.  As measured by Deaths per 100K these are 3 of the 4 most deadly states with death on the Order of Cancer, or 10X (times) the annual Flu rate.  Connecticut also has the highest Death as a percent of Cases of any US State @ 9.2%. 

The states that are currently getting all the press:  Arizona, Texas, California and Florida are among the least deadly as measured by either % deaths per case or Deaths per 100K residents. 

If California, Texas or Florida get to NY or CT numbers the death counts will be horrific. 

And what happened to Washington State?  The origin of the outbreak and the latest CHOP, and protests.  It has become rounding error in all the numbers.    Things aren't adding up.  :o
« Last Edit: July 05, 2020, 11:29:42 AM by Beasho »

Dwight (DW)

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #40 on: July 05, 2020, 12:38:29 PM »
It just seems like it is going to blow up everywhere they ease lockdowns until there is a cure, or people wear masks. And we know people won’t wear them, so it’s coming back everywhere eventually.

The death rate will decline, simply because we know more about how to treat it.

I don’t know how you can make data from that mess.

From the PHD who Florida fired for telling the truth.
According to internal DOH records, deaths reported by DOH were reported an average 7-21 days after the COVID-19 positive person died (date from March through mid-June_, with some deaths reported as late as 44 days after death.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2020, 01:13:56 PM by Dwight (DW) »

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #41 on: July 06, 2020, 11:42:39 AM »
If we had the current testing capabilities (650k+ per day) in March, would today's 60k positive cases have paled in comparison?

Considering that there was a point with over 2,000 deaths per day, without overwhelming hospitals (but getting close). Taking into account that we are headed to roughly 200 deaths a day involving CV19. There is a pretty good argument that the current spike in cases would look like part of a downward trend, if testing was the same then as now. Granted there are going to be places that are having "spikes" but the overall, statistical danger remains unchanged.

If the death rate stays at or below 4-5% of all cause deaths week over week, then the CDC will not be able to label it a epidemic anymore based on their own metrics. All cause is somewhere south of 8000 deaths per day. There are still a lot more things to be afraid of than CV (cancer, being fat and being old, followed by being dumb, and being unlucky).

I'm in WA state and I imagine we will see a rise in cases over the next few weeks, just judging by what has been happening in the other states, but I really think WA had more infections early than most other locations. Probably as early as Thanksgiving. That is an uneducated guess based on conversations with my 2 pharmacist golf buddies. We are linked very closely with China for both citizenship and the port traffic.

Does anyone see the case rate increasing while deaths decrease as a positive? We will never eliminate it, so what is the option?
« Last Edit: July 06, 2020, 12:01:28 PM by SUP Leave »
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Beasho

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #42 on: July 07, 2020, 06:58:30 AM »
I dusted off some of the data sets.

When focused on the States hardest hit in the North East: NY, CT, RI for example you will see that the rate of POSITIVE TESTS for Covid is ~ 1 in 68 people.  Or most recently less than 2% of people testing positive often below 1%.  These are the states with the Highest Percentage of Death in the Country (as measured vs. Positive cases or Deaths per 100K residents) and on some recent days fewer than 1 in 100 people are testing positive. 

This is good news.  People are wearing there masks and REINFECTION IS NOT HAPPENING despite all the protests.

*Data is measured as POSITIVE Tests Divided by TOTAL Tests for a Given Day
« Last Edit: July 07, 2020, 07:11:50 AM by Beasho »

Beasho

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #43 on: July 07, 2020, 07:04:20 AM »
Focusing on the "Round 3" States.  Those that have been getting all the press: AZ, FL, TX and CA we see a different story.

What I see is Arizona, Florida and Texas increasing in that Order.  California HOWEVER has been hovering at 5% Positive for the last 6 weeks.  There was a spike above 10% for a day or 2 but from what you read in the news they talk about rates doubling.  They fail to mention it may have only been a daily spike.

*Data is measured as POSITIVE Tests Divided by TOTAL Tests for a Given Day
« Last Edit: July 07, 2020, 07:06:17 AM by Beasho »

Beasho

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #44 on: July 07, 2020, 10:54:36 AM »
No one seems to be talking about the 1st graph showing massive decline in NY, NJ, CT, RI and MA.

However there was ONE small reference to this in a CBS Marketwatch article today (7/7/20) on how different Covid-19 is from the Spanish Flu.

The Spanish Flu killed young people Corona does NOT.  When you kill young people before or at reproductive peak you alter the genome.  Corona by killing older people (according to every single study) is genetically like lopping off the dogs tail.  See the Bar graph below is barely visible under the age of 44 and disappears younger than that.   

Full Article here:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-one-remarkable-difference-between-covid-19-and-the-1918-spanish-flu-2020-07-07?mod=home-page
« Last Edit: July 07, 2020, 10:56:38 AM by Beasho »

 


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