Author Topic: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?  (Read 9207 times)

Kip

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #75 on: December 08, 2020, 08:43:17 PM »
Wow! So many experts on the zone !
I’m definitely gonna sleep better  8)
Yeeeeeeeeew! 


Admin

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #76 on: December 09, 2020, 01:33:01 AM »
This should be interesting.

https://youtu.be/Tq8SXOBy-4w

This is what Dr. Kory deems offensive.  Starts at about 11:00.   

https://www.c-span.org/video/?507035-1/senate-homeland-security-committee-holds-hearing-covid-19-pandemic&live

Downright bizarre that these docs are having to defend themselves for protecting people. 
« Last Edit: December 09, 2020, 01:38:07 AM by Admin »

LaPerouseBay

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #77 on: December 09, 2020, 08:03:04 AM »
^Indeed. 

Here's a dose of yesterday's "daily distortions" from the NYT.

Youtube and Facebook are allegedly censoring as well.     

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/2020-election-misinformation-distortions#a-senate-hearing-promoted-unproven-drugs-and-dubious-claims-about-the-coronavirus.

Next up: Rachel Maddow will link Ivermectin to Russian meddling.   
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Chan

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #78 on: December 09, 2020, 04:32:43 PM »
The NIH, WHO, and most major scientific organizations will, unfortunately, need to dedicate more of their resources to PR and anti-disinformation campaigns.  Smoky the bear helped increase forest fire prevention.  Maybe every new societal threat needs an endearing mascot.

I'm looking forward to a time when politics are boring, tribalism is insignificant, and scientific data is accepted on its merit.  It's strange that we've become numb to the untimely losses of thousands of Americans every day.  Another sublimated concern is for the long term effects of this virus.  Neurological symptoms are estimated to be as high as 80% in the Covid infected.  Viruses, unlike  bacterial infections, can have long term implications.  The list of diseases linked to viral infections include, MS, muscular dystrophy, ALS, hemophilia, rheumatoid arthritis, and the list goes on.  These symptoms can take years to develop.  I'm not a disease expert.  This information is readily available from any legitimate medical resource. 

I don't know what to expect now that the vaccine is about to roll out.  Trump is a strong advocate, will Trump supporters take it?  What about the zealot anti vaxxers?  Do we need a plush vaccination owl to promote the campaign?  I'm hoping we can move past the identity politics and Facebook groupthink and just eradicate this virus and move on. 

« Last Edit: December 09, 2020, 04:42:13 PM by Chan »

Beasho

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #79 on: January 03, 2021, 11:17:21 AM »
This new 'Super Strain' reminded me of an article I read years ago.  Study on Cholera and how infectious it is vs. how defensive the organism (people) become:

The conclusion:  As the pathogen mutates to become MORE virulent it can concurrently become less lethal.


Full Article attached. 
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Cholera invaded Peru in 1991 and quickly spread through­out South and Central America, in the process providing a ready-made experiment for Ewald. On the day of my tour Saunders had presented to the assembled biology department her honors project, “Geographical Variations in the Virulence of Vibrio cholerae in Latin America.” The data compressed in her tables and bar graphs were evidence for Ewald’s central thesis: it is possible to influence a disease organism’s evolu­tion to your advantage. Saunders used a standard assay, called ELISA, to measure the amount of toxin produced by different strains of cholera, thus inferring the virulence of V cholerae variants from several Latin American regions. Then she and Ewald looked at figures for water quality—what percentage of the population had potable water, for examples and looked for correlations. If virulent strains Correlated with a contaminated water supply, and if. conversely, mild strains ‘took over where the water was clean, the implication would be that V cholera becomes increasingly mild when it cannot use water as a vector. When the pathogen is denied easy ac­cess to new hosts through fecal matter in the water system. its transmission depends on infected people moving into contact with healthy ones. In this scenario the less-toxic variants would prevail, because these strains do not incapacitate or kill the host before they can be spread to others. If this turned out to be true, it would constitute the kind of evidence that Ewald expected to find.

The dots on Saunders’s graphs made it plain that cholera strains are virulent in Guatemala. where the water is bad, and mild in Chile, where water quality is good. “The Chilean data show how quickly it can become mild in response to different selective pressures,” Ewald explained. “Public-health people try to keep a disease from spreading in a population, and they don’t realize that we can also change the organism itself. If you can make an organism very mild, it works like a natural

vaccine against the virulent strains. That’s the most preven­tive of preventive medicine: when you can change the organ­ism so it doesn’t make you sick.” Strains of the cholera agent isolated from Texas and Louisiana produce such small amounts of toxin that almost no one who is infected with them will come down with cholera.

Joseph Schall, a professor of biology at the University of Vermont, offers a comment on Ewald’s work: “If Paul is right, it may be that the application of an evolutionary theo­ry to public health could save millions of lives. It’s a stun­ning idea. If we’re able to manipulate the evolutionary tra­jectory of our friends—domestic animals and crops—why not do the same with our enemies, with cholera, malaria, and HIV? As Thomas Huxley said when he read Darwin, ‘How stupid of me not to have thought of that before.’ I thought when I heard Paul’s idea, ‘Gee, why didn’t I think of that?”’   
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« Last Edit: January 03, 2021, 11:19:25 AM by Beasho »

Beasho

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #80 on: January 03, 2021, 11:29:25 AM »
"A New Germ Theory" was written 20 years ago.  It ends with this prophecy:

"Even the germs that inhabit our bodies—the so-called “human commensal flora,” such as the swarming populations of organisms that live in the spaces between our teeth—are largely unknown, he points out. Most of them are presumably benign, up to a point. There are disquieting suggestions in the literature of a link between bacteria in dental plaque and coronary disease.
“Some people think it’s scary to have these time bombs in our bodies,” Ewald says. “but it’s also encouraging—because if it’s a disease organism, then there’s probably something we can do about it. The textbooks say, In 1900 most people died of infectious diseases, and today most people don’t die of infectious disease: they die of cancer and heart disease and Alzheimer’s and all these things. Well, in ten years I think the textbooks will have to be rewritten to say, Throughout history most people have died of infectious disease, and most people continue to die of infectious disease.”
« Last Edit: January 03, 2021, 11:32:21 AM by Beasho »

Wetstuff

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #81 on: January 06, 2021, 06:24:53 AM »
"It's strange that we've become numb to the untimely losses of thousands of Americans every day." 

Isn't it tho'?!... The current occupant of the White House is a modern-day Jim Jones. Rather than 'Stop the spread' ...these AM radio types run around saying; 'Stop the steal'.  Somehow I am amazed that the fellow brined in orange makeup did not have the political instinct to realize he had the opportunity for a third term.  COVID set that up for him better than his golf partners turning their backs while he single puts every green. I do not believe there was a better political opportunity in my lifetime.

"Another sublimated concern is for the long term effects of this virus.  Neurological symptoms are estimated to be as high as 80% in the Covid infected.  Viruses, unlike bacterial infections, can have long term implications.  The list of diseases linked to viral infections include, MS, muscular dystrophy, ALS, hemophilia, rheumatoid arthritis, and the list goes on.  These symptoms can take years to develop."

...this may similar to us nuking the Japanese at Nagasaki and Hiroshima ...after the ambulance sirens stop.  This jaw-music about 'everything will be fine by Spring' sounds like what I would expect to hear the day after an attempted suicide. 

Jim
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PonoBill

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #82 on: January 06, 2021, 07:57:02 AM »
"As the pathogen mutates to become MORE virulent it can concurrently become less lethal."

Can is the operant term here. Can is not the same as will. It's true that viruses don't generally increase in lethality, but it's the outcome of random mutations favoring hosts that don't immediately kaack. Relying on random effects to work in our favor is mostly wishful thinking, especially given that transmission with this nasty fucker starts before symptoms are present.

And there is no intervening agent like fecal matter in water or finger smears on your muffin--it's human to human transmission in 99+% of the examined cases.

From the unmasked crowds on the beaches here, it looks like a lot of people are acting like this is all over. In the meantime Los Angeles is starting to make Italy at its chaotic peak look like a minor spike. I think January and February are going to be extraordinarily ugly.

We'll probably zoom past 350,000 people dead in the USA by next weekend. People are still saying "more people died from xxx than COVID", but they are quickly running out of useful examples. They're going to have to rely on WWII or communist totalitarians pretty soon, and my guess is that most don't know enough history to make that work.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2021, 08:38:04 AM by PonoBill »
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