Author Topic: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?  (Read 2671 times)

Admin

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Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« on: June 24, 2020, 05:02:33 AM »
This isn't looking good.  It seems like there is a fairly widespread distrust of mask and distance information.  What are you guys hearing and seeing in your areas?

krash

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2020, 05:56:31 AM »
Seeing the same or very similar curve here in sunny south Florida... highest numbers since beginning of April.

Coincidence, maybe, maybe not, but since the local goberment starting opening syuff up, the protest, and the blind frustration or ignoramce of people refusing to wear mask in public and fighting the ordinace requiring mask indoors.. we'll never know.

But it ain't looking good, MPO, ... I'm in an akward situation and stay away form people and inside asmuch as I can.. have anything deliverd if possible and quarantine it for a few days before opening if possible.. thanks Amazon and Instacart.
Akward situation, heart transplant on 3/17/20, and at that time my immune system has beed suppressed so my body can't fight infections... and can't stop the anti-rejection meds or my body will kill off that new used heart.

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Beasho

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2020, 08:01:08 AM »
Just looked and confirmed your case count.  Heaven forbid we guess why its up? 

More tests?  Distancing down?  Face Masks Used/Not used . . . ?

Fortunately deaths are on a different trajectory for now.  Not more than 1,000 deaths per day for a while.

Admin

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2020, 08:08:40 AM »
Fortunately deaths are on a different trajectory for now.  Not more than 1,000 deaths per day for a while.

The bummer is that new cases were at a low in early June but now we have this rapid rise.    We know that there is a lag between new cases and reported deaths.  When would we expect to see this new rise in cases result in a rise in deaths?

TallDude

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2020, 08:34:40 AM »
Just don't listen to the news. My wife is a nurse at a large hospital and they have only a few patients in their COVID unit now. They had one on a vent last week, which is on par or below what they see with the regular flu. It's just the massive testing that is in full swing this week. In our area, because of the protests, the mass testing drive thru centers had been closed or had very few people going to them. More testing shows that more people have or had it. The news doesn't seem to want delineate those who have or had it and are just fine, from those who have it and are hospitalized or worse. The later is a very small percentage. But that doesn't make for a News Worthy story.
Back to a large number of people die from the flu every year. Thousands. Did you get your flu shot this year? I did, but a lot of people don't. I can see 10 years from now, ask someone if they had their COVID shot? Most will say.... No.

Definitely be careful Krash. You are the reason I'm wearing a mask.
Still good to wear the mask, watch what you touch, and use a hand sanitizer. Our family does.
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yugi

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2020, 09:03:16 AM »
Things come in waves.

Ride 'em.

mrbig

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2020, 09:15:40 AM »
Equally horrifying in Georgia. New cases through the roof. Deaths up in counties with high densities of poorer folk..
Let it come to you..
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Admin

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2020, 09:21:00 AM »
It's just the massive testing that is in full swing this week. In our area, because of the protests, the mass testing drive thru centers had been closed or had very few people going to them.

I would be surprised if that were the case.  The progressive increase in testing has not resulted in that kind of spike in cases.  The chart below ends on the 13th which is before this spike occurred but it will be interesting to see where it goes when the update it

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

« Last Edit: June 24, 2020, 09:23:19 AM by Admin »

PonoBill

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2020, 11:25:58 AM »
I expect the death rate will remain lower, for two reasons. First, the understanding of how to treat serious cases has increased rapidly. Initially, as soon as people showed decreasing blood oxygen beyond some arbitrary point they were intubated. Less intrusive and less dangerous approaches, such as overpressure O2 in masks were avoided because of fear of spreading the virus--the masks necessarily leak contaminated air. Prone, face down intubation has proven to be greatly superior to the common elevated position. I get schooled on this regularly by daughter Elvis (Elizabeth) who is Lead Respiratory Therapist and heads up COVID response at her hospital. Other practices like steroid therapy for critical patients also look very promising.

Second, while we don't have nearly enough testing and contact tracing to isolate outbreaks, we probably do have enough to provide early intervention and monitoring of cases that go bad. That's good news and bad news. The tipping point for fatalities happens when hospitals get overwhelmed. There's enough local planning to mitigate this in most areas.

The death rate won't be declining substantially anytime soon though, mostly because the federal response has done much more harm than good. And we're still neck-deep in idiots who think wearing a mask means you're a deluded pantywaist liberal.

The final reason why death rate is still down is what Admin referred to--we won't see that curve for another week or so. Hopefully, the first set of reasons will dominate. We'll know soon enough.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2020, 11:29:14 AM by PonoBill »
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Phils

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2020, 03:21:57 PM »
Just don't listen to the news. My wife is a nurse at a large hospital and they have only a few patients in their COVID unit now. They had one on a vent last week, which is on par or below what they see with the regular flu. It's just the massive testing that is in full swing this week. In our area, because of the protests, the mass testing drive thru centers had been closed or had very few people going to them. More testing shows that more people have or had it. The news doesn't seem to want delineate those who have or had it and are just fine, from those who have it and are hospitalized or worse. The later is a very small percentage. But that doesn't make for a News Worthy story.
Back to a large number of people die from the flu every year. Thousands. Did you get your flu shot this year? I did, but a lot of people don't. I can see 10 years from now, ask someone if they had their COVID shot? Most will say.... No.

Definitely be careful Krash. You are the reason I'm wearing a mask.
Still good to wear the mask, watch what you touch, and use a hand sanitizer. Our family does.
First, it is possible that the current spikes could be due to increased testing, however that is unlikely since in most areas, the PERCENT of positive tests is also going up.  That is a critically important number to watch.

Second, don't confuse the antigen test with the antibody test.  The current numbers people are worried about are positive antigen tests.  This means you are currently infected.  It is the antibody test which may indicate that you have recovered from an infection.

Finally, CV19 is very different from the flu in many important ways which makes it less likely people will be as complacent about a vaccine.

Tom

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2020, 04:45:30 PM »
The answer is very simple.  Until there is a vaccine, if people don't wear masks in public and don't social distance, there will be large numbers of people infected. Some will die and some will get very sick.

TallDude

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #11 on: June 24, 2020, 04:47:29 PM »
Just don't listen to the news. My wife is a nurse at a large hospital and they have only a few patients in their COVID unit now. They had one on a vent last week, which is on par or below what they see with the regular flu. It's just the massive testing that is in full swing this week. In our area, because of the protests, the mass testing drive thru centers had been closed or had very few people going to them. More testing shows that more people have or had it. The news doesn't seem to want delineate those who have or had it and are just fine, from those who have it and are hospitalized or worse. The later is a very small percentage. But that doesn't make for a News Worthy story.
Back to a large number of people die from the flu every year. Thousands. Did you get your flu shot this year? I did, but a lot of people don't. I can see 10 years from now, ask someone if they had their COVID shot? Most will say.... No.

Definitely be careful Krash. You are the reason I'm wearing a mask.
Still good to wear the mask, watch what you touch, and use a hand sanitizer. Our family does.
First, it is possible that the current spikes could be due to increased testing, however that is unlikely since in most areas, the PERCENT of positive tests is also going up.  That is a critically important number to watch.

Second, don't confuse the antigen test with the antibody test.  The current numbers people are worried about are positive antigen tests.  This means you are currently infected.  It is the antibody test which may indicate that you have recovered from an infection.

Finally, CV19 is very different from the flu in many important ways which makes it less likely people will be as complacent about a vaccine.
It takes more readily available viral tests to get larger positive numbers. Are most of these positive people ending up in the hospital in serious condition or do they just recover from a bad cough or less? That's the numbers I want to see. How many in the hospital vs not... of those numbers. A given area population and the hospitals servicing that area.
The irony is I wear a mask in the grocery store and all places of business, but I rarely see elderly people wearing masks. Even my 85 year old dad didn't have one in his car. I asked him  where's your mask? He said, he didn't really need it....OK.
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SanoSlatchSup

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #12 on: June 24, 2020, 06:03:29 PM »
It takes more readily available viral tests to get larger positive numbers. Are most of these positive people ending up in the hospital in serious condition or do they just recover from a bad cough or less? That's the numbers I want to see. How many in the hospital vs not... of those numbers. A given area population and the hospitals servicing that area.

They're saying that those testing positively are increasing, but at the same time the ages of those within the increase in those positive tests are getting younger....
Quote
PUBLISHED: June 16, 2020 at 6:00 a.m. | UPDATED: June 16, 2020 at 6:50 p.m.

As California’s economy opens up, coronavirus cases are getting younger and younger.

An analysis released this week reveals that more than 44% of new diagnoses are in people age 34 or younger, up from 29% a month ago.

There’s a corresponding drop in cases among older people. The proportion of COVID-19 cases among Californians older than 50 has plummeted from 46% to 30.5% in the past month.

The proportion of cases among middle-aged Californians — ages 35 to 49 — has plateaued, neither rising nor falling.

...with those younger folks being generally healthier, and thus the decrease in the hospitalizations, and deaths over that same time period.

But really, like anything else statistically, the testing results can be made to reflect anything the reporting party wants them to be. The old “Figures lie and liars figure” you can say, or maybe more correct..."Figures don’t lie, but liars figure".

Quote
The irony is I wear a mask in the grocery store and all places of business, but I rarely see elderly people wearing masks. Even my 85 year old dad didn't have one in his car. I asked him  where's your mask? He said, he didn't really need it....OK.
Get outside of OC, and even more specifically SC, and you'll see a much different number of those actually wearing them. For some reason, I'm hearing that red hats, and masks don't go together, but that's only what I've heard. ;) ;D
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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #13 on: June 24, 2020, 07:04:33 PM »
I don’t wear a mask if I’m going outside for a walk or some other outside activity where I’m not around a lot of people. But I do wear one to go grocery shopping, go to massage or basically when I’m doing any kind of indoor experience. But what I find troubling, is that I see less and less people wearing them. In my province (British Columbia) we are generally regarded as having done a pretty good job with this pandemic, so maybe people are getting complacent. Here (https://www.sfgate.com/news/editorspicks/article/What-they-don-t-tell-you-about-surviving-15347792.php) is a good article as to why we should not be complacent.
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PonoBill

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Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« Reply #14 on: June 24, 2020, 07:31:22 PM »
I guess everyone's mileage will vary, but here in Hood River, the vast majority of people in stores wear masks. Outside, not so many, and in many ways that makes sense as long as there aren't crowds. The good old inverse square law and good air circulation ensure that if you do inhale a droplet with virus that it won't be accompanied by a swarm of its relatives. From there it's just random chance whether that single sample lands somewhere that it can work its evil scheme.

Today COVID is the 4th most common cause of death in the USA, down from Number 1 a month ago. A strong showing for the newcomer, and unless things progress better than they have recently it might make it's way back to the top spot. For the most serious cases the use of steroids to mitigate the cytokine storm is great news, but if you get to that point your life will never be the same. The general damage caused is horrific. I have a friend who had it almost two months ago without hospitalization. She called it the worst experience she ever had, worse than having the flu and food poisoning at the same time. Two months later she still can't walk up a flight of stairs.
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