Author Topic: Unintended Consequences -CV19  (Read 1529 times)

SUP Leave

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Unintended Consequences -CV19
« on: April 16, 2020, 10:12:10 AM »
Beasho's data thread and PBills bright side thread, have got me thinking a lot. We all know that CV19 has caused a massive societal response. I would be interested to hear some of your thoughts on the unintended consequences of the reaction.

Here are mine:

22 million unemployed Ė The first wave was restaurants/retail, second wave construction/blue collar, third wave professional services/health services/technolgy and next will be 4th wave municipal/government/energy. We are fucked for a while.

70K less overall deaths than anticipated from Feb to mid April. Good news? It tracks with the unemployed health service people and folks who would normally seek care not going to get it.

My n=1 story:

I built a garden. Iíve given up completely on the media Ė Beasho is my north star now.

Everyone I know has become an epidemiologist (including me) and epidemiology requires less accuracy for competency than predicting the weather.

Pretty much every evening I sit in the hot tub with my wife to go over the dayís events. She is an elementary school counselor and we live in a fairly poor area. She works from home with a school issued phone and laptop. Her concern for her students when this started was very high and it has become far worse than she had expected. The point being that school for a lot of kids was the only safe place in their little lives. The place where they got good meals, and received adult attention and care. The teachers and staff become more protective of these souls than their parents.

She has told me about kids who she knew were being sent home to live with drug addicted parents, abusive siblings, to foster mills, and any myriad of combination of that and worse. Some families have lost complete contact with the school and she is having to get Law Enforcement to provide welfare checks. She found out via protective services that one of her students ended up in the ER, and parent in jail. The argument was over their at home school work (math). She decompresses in the hot tub but I get out in an angry rage after hearing the daysí stories.

My wife is very kind and loved by many, but she is extremely bitter about the CV response. Her own opinion is that we have sacrificed one vulnerable community (poor children) for another (co-morbid and old people). Through the lens of her experience the choice was wrong. She believes that the poorer kids are going to be left far, far behind or worse by this. School not only provides structure for kids but for many parents as well.  Her example to me was "Our kids are doing Kahn academy and going golfing in the afternoons, and those kids are getting chips for dinner and watching their parents shoot up and tweak until 2 am." I feel like her concern is valid.
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ninja tuna

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Re: Unintended Consequences -CV19
« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2020, 10:23:16 AM »
Sounds like you married an Angel!

Admin

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Re: Unintended Consequences -CV19
« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2020, 11:13:39 AM »
Hi Sup Leave,

I appreciate your points about vulnerable kids and that is certainly a real issue. But, the country was facing 1.5 to 2.2 million deaths without mitigation.  In that death range even the number of much younger people would have been unacceptable. 

For instance the group that have died from Covid-19 aged 49 years old and below are 6.5% of the current death totals according to one of the excellent charts that Beasho has been posting.  Without mitigation that same 6.5% would be 97,500 to 143,000 dead at 49 year old or younger.  If you include people up to 59 years old the range goes up to 247,500 to 363,000 dead people.  If you include people up to 69  years old the range becomes 543,000 to 796,400 dead people.

Beasho's analysis of co-morbidity has been super informative.  Even in these younger groups co-morbidity is overwhelmingly present.  We need to consider who this is however.  Many Zoners, for instance, fall into the groups above (age groups with co-morbidities). 

« Last Edit: April 16, 2020, 12:52:43 PM by Admin »

SUP Leave

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Re: Unintended Consequences -CV19
« Reply #3 on: April 23, 2020, 10:24:41 AM »
More unintended consequences surrounding schools.

A lot of parents are finding out that they are capable of teaching lessons to their kids based on the forced home schooling. More capable than the teachers as they have more time to focus on their kids. My wife meets with teachers every day, and they are sort of performing some ad-hoc data sampling and finding out a lot of parents (30% +/-) are seriously considering not sending their kids back to school this fall, virus or no. This further separates the haves from the have-nots, as the parents who can do this typically will have a single breadwinner supporting the family and a stronger family nucleus.

The poor (especially the working poor) are getting the short end of the stick as usual. I feel really bad for families who live in apartments with kids where parks and outside areas are closed. The evidence about outdoor transmission being minimal is so overwhelming, that I just can't fathom how all parks and natural areas are not open in some form.

One of my friends is a court reporter and she has confirmed that domestic violence is going off the charts. Taking the structure and the hope out of people's life is dangerous.



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SanoSlatchSup

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Re: Unintended Consequences -CV19
« Reply #4 on: April 23, 2020, 01:39:56 PM »
More unintended consequences surrounding schools.

....finding out a lot of parents (30% +/-) are seriously considering not sending their kids back to school this fall, virus or no. This further separates the haves from the have-nots, as the parents who can do this typically will have a single breadwinner supporting the family and a stronger family nucleus.

The poor (especially the working poor) are getting the short end of the stick as usual. I feel really bad for families who live in apartments with kids where parks and outside areas are closed.

One of my friends is a court reporter and she has confirmed that domestic violence is going off the charts. Taking the structure and the hope out of people's life is dangerous.
Unfortunately, I think this is more of a sad look into the society we've become or are becoming.

Is it really that terrible to be "stuck" at home with your kids? Or apparently even worse to have unlimited time with your spouse...the one whom at one time you vowed "...to love and to cherish, as long as we both shall live" (not you specifically SUP Leave, just open ended rhetorical statement questions in general)?

It seems as if we've lost all creativity to think on our own to find things to do to occupy our, and our kids' time. Even more so to couples w/o kids, who I guess have discovered they're not as compatible in an actual "relationship" with each other, as they are in the pretty play one they act out in life, where their time together is just a small tidbit of the much larger picture. 

Yes, I understand the fact that financial stress plays a big role in the picture for some, and can't imagine the stressors of worrying if I'll be able to put a roof over their heads, or food on the table for them. But, (again hate to say this)...maybe job, and financial status/security should have been thought about before having that first child...or the next...or the next....or...
 
So now after a month and a half, we have folks complaining that their kids are at home, and that they don't have childcare for them (not what I thought schools were for anyway, what do they do over summer vacation)? Or that they can't be stuck in the same house with their significant other w/o it going to fisticuffs in the living room...instead of someone just going out for a freakin' walk? 

What the hell's wrong with us? ??? :-\



« Last Edit: April 23, 2020, 01:41:40 PM by SanoSlatchSup »
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SlatchJim

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Re: Unintended Consequences -CV19
« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2020, 03:13:31 PM »
If the beaches were open, I'd be having the time of my life. 

SUP Leave

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Re: Unintended Consequences -CV19
« Reply #6 on: April 23, 2020, 03:18:45 PM »
If the beaches were open, I'd be having the time of my life.

Not only would you be having the time of your life, you would be decreasing your chances of dying from CV-19 and/or many other ailments by exercise and fresh air intake.

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surfcowboy

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Re: Unintended Consequences -CV19
« Reply #7 on: April 24, 2020, 08:01:15 PM »
Iíll give you a brighter side from a techno optimist.

Broadband will become a utility, like it should.

Video learning will be improved now that we need it.

This will lead to kids in poor rural areas getting a better education.

Those kids will get better knowledge work jobs than they could have.

The reduction in labor costs  from hiring  a rural American will lead to coastal tech wealth being distributed more evenly.

This is the initial ass kicking of a giant wave. We all learned to surf once. So will America .

Same goes for telemedicine. Small hospitals in the South suck. The advances forced on us will change that. A buddy in IT reports that weekly number of telemedicine sessions are up 50x since Jan.

Productivity of people working from home is 30% higher than in office.

Weíre learning at a fast pace and at the barrel of a gun but change can also be good.

One thought on schools. If weíd keep the funding the same. (And we could.) Iíll bet you wife could do a pretty great job for poor kids in a smaller class size where she could give more attention.

Keep it up, I can do this all day. We canít give in to despair.

supthecreek

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Re: Unintended Consequences -CV19
« Reply #8 on: April 25, 2020, 08:07:54 AM »
There are soooo many unintended consequences coming our way.
It is our collective desire to return to equilibrium in our daily lives.... but it won't happen for many.
touching doorknobs, breathing... things like that, may now include a certain amount of dread.

We will have to adapt more than we can possibly imagine.
When we are inside, looking out.... out, looks great.

Just wait until the doors really open.... we will be like a house cats, let out onto a city street.

Me?  I always look at the bright side... it will be a world filled with creative opportunity and new ways to connect with people, in new and innovative ways.

We got this!!!  :)






Beasho

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Re: Unintended Consequences -CV19
« Reply #9 on: April 26, 2020, 07:13:53 AM »
Covid Procreation.

Mine was the only Surf Bike 15 years ago.  Then I went electric 10 years ago.

Phat Tire 4 years ago.  Covid-19 has spawned a whole new generation.  I was always prepared to surf alone at my favorite spot using my e-bike.

The locals are catching on.  I counted 7 e-Bikes at this spot the other day.  Here are 3 Phatties and one One Wheel.  All surf commuters.

TallDude

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Re: Unintended Consequences -CV19
« Reply #10 on: April 26, 2020, 12:32:21 PM »
Great deals on CL. I just saw this inflatable 'door' for $200!
It's not overhead to me!
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lucabrasi

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Re: Unintended Consequences -CV19
« Reply #11 on: May 01, 2020, 08:43:37 AM »
Well, interesting times for sure. Not sure where this will ramble off to but....
My wife teaches, two of my daughters do (or have) and two son in laws as well.
Anyways, sounds like the class rooms will be smaller next year. At least here and I would imagine everywhere. 
My first thought, "great, they will need more teachers" and before that's even a finished thought. "oh, no way, states don't have the money...."
So, the idea is smaller classroom sizes. Two 4 hour blocks for the kids. A 4 hour block is your school day.
Well, the states don't want to give up their federal funding so all the "standards" and "no kids left behind" will be the predominate platform.
No time for other offerings is my worry.
Not that those are bad programs in their intent but the way they are implemented handcuffs the teachers and doesn't let many kids come out to their full potential.
There will be online classes or more homework to make up for the loss in "at school time" but I don't think it's really going to add much...Ö..structure? substance? creativity?
I would imagine the schools will implement everything that has anything to do with their funding into the "at school time" so it can be documented easier to keep the funds rolling in.
Of course, why wouldn't or shouldn't they?
I'm worried we are going to be turning out even more dummy's in mass than ever before.
There isn't going to be money for more teachers, at least from the states. I just don't think so.
Some teachers will be able to creatively focus away from all the garbage and "one size fits all" agenda but for the most part it's going to be "one size fits all" class rooms.
As far as the online stuff goes, my daughters don't live in the most prosperous of communities and parental involvement has never been overwhelming.
With trying to continue the school year this year getting the parents involved with the lessons has been challenging and a mute point for many of their students.
I don't know all the details but they are very frustrated with what they are seeing with their kids. Incomplete, not done, mia, etc.
Some parents are (and always will be) very involved but as this has changed how the kids are getting their lessons the overall interest from parents in what their children are doing is showing.
Conferences and after school activities always seem to have less parental involvement every year. That's not anything new but it does seem to gradually drivel up as time goes by.

So does that mean we see a surge in private schools? The kids with little input from their parents probably won't be attending any of these. Do more of the "brighter" kids move into private schools so that maybe it offsets? I can't see private schools being a big player in many communities. Look across this country. Just ain't going to happen.
I don't know....school systems definitely in for some big changes. Some will be good but I am afraid much will be less than desirable.
There will be lots of good coming out of the online school way of doing things but look across everywhere.
The kids that already have parental involvement at home before all of this will probably be ok for the most part, no matter the setting but you get all these kids where an even bigger chunk of their social time is coming from social media (online schooling = more time for social media) then we going to be turning out a bunch of real gems I'm afraid.
Anyways...Ö.




SUP Leave

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Re: Unintended Consequences -CV19
« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2020, 08:38:51 AM »
Not sure if this is an unintended consequence or if just another strange outfall of this virus response.

WA State somehow leaked their Excel spreadsheet with shutdown complaints on it. The state lets you turn in companies anonymously through a web portal, but many complaints were turned in anonymously with a personal e-mail. Not sure if the link below will work. Kind of interesting to read, there are like 6000 plus complaints. I did a CTRL+F to search my town. My cousin's earthwork firm was turned in.

https://lookaside.fbsbx.com/file/Non-essential_biz_open_%285%29.xlsx?token=AWxQAA3XZnyW-TkwWrsrjZps2dIgU9bvGcNuLY7DKyEyLBrIPqWocSZBu82qdA5OSVB18Hu6fzEWc87WNd8pHzo2FTpu7pX3Rzx7BKWoHfgQFnAdy0CSA3v1cWg7PVUCQfTK2MVmUpnFQ1a-bD_BcQijEs2EPm1bGZi2XEVDcF9qkJ5R-NTyjURpTQ4pjNn0dnLUjKRZgSHS7olRf8HZtt2O

One of my partner firms (Architect) got turned in! The complaint was "they are working during shutdown." I just e-mailed the architect to see what he thought about that. He is an egotistical hot head, so I am expecting his head to pop off.  It is really interesting to see how many people turned in their own companies and how many companies turned over their competitors. I noticed a few of my competitors were turned in but my firms were not. My neighbor office is a massage studio and they were turned in. The proprietor has already blasted the "rat" on Facebook, and then took it down. The government reaction is doing a good job of turning citizens against one another.

The golf course I play at left it open to members for exercise (no pro shop) and I heard from the sheriff office that it was turned in every day by the same person. The state complaint list has a lot of golf course complaints on it, as about 40% of courses followed this model.

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PonoBill

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Re: Unintended Consequences -CV19
« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2020, 06:29:47 PM »
As was amply proven around the world in every conflict where society's rules were drastically changed, assholes thrive. Letting people anonymously do ANYTHING enables sneaky mean bastards to do harm without fear of repercussions. And if the new rules stand behind people pulling cheap shots, they get braver.
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