Author Topic: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily  (Read 22607 times)

Chan

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #315 on: May 29, 2020, 10:31:43 AM »
In the recent oubreak on a produce farm in Tennesse, where all of the workers tested positive for Covid, would you conclude that all of the general population in Tennessee would test positive, all farm workers, all of the general public?  The uncertain (35-85) percentage of asymptomatic infected is part of what makes this virus so dangerous.  Add to that, limited and faulty testing, and reliable modeling is even more unlikely.  The Covid death rate seems to be the only somewhat reliable statistic, and even that has some errors from inaccurate reported cause of death numbers.

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #316 on: May 29, 2020, 01:37:33 PM »
In the recent oubreak on a produce farm in Tennesse, where all of the workers tested positive for Covid, would you conclude that all of the general population in Tennessee would test positive, all farm workers, all of the general public?  The uncertain (35-85) percentage of asymptomatic infected is part of what makes this virus so dangerous.  Add to that, limited and faulty testing, and reliable modeling is even more unlikely.  The Covid death rate seems to be the only somewhat reliable statistic, and even that has some errors from inaccurate reported cause of death numbers.

Whatch you talkin bout Willace?  Oh this  :o

Certainly challenges the Cruise Ship metrics.  Aka everyone infected.  Or everyone TESTED POSITIVE. 

This doesn't mean Symptomatic, Ill or Dead but could lead to any one of these things. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-29/every-single-worker-has-covid-at-one-u-s-farm-on-eve-of-harvest

Chan

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #317 on: May 29, 2020, 03:28:40 PM »
 Dr Fauci and Dr Brix have explained many of the factors contributing to the uncertainty in their models.  Though the models are unclear, it is apparent that the more unknown infected asymptomatics the greater the toll in terms of serious illness and deaths.  Even if the asymptomatic (or you could use the word resistant but I would think that referred to immune) numbers are high, the rate of contagion and death will continue to increase due to the these carriers.

Admin

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #318 on: May 30, 2020, 02:37:41 AM »
Deaths in the United States below 1,000 per day for the last 3 days running.  This is good news.

It looks like there is a pattern of lower numbers on the weekends probably due to reporting issues.  With some smoothing we are still at about 1,200 deaths per day, which is above the current IMHE model which had expected 947 deaths per day at this point.  They have been updating that model every few days but it is currently expecting 135,000 deaths by August 4th.  Interesting because that is roughly the middle of their original projection.  Many countries have experienced a similar course for this now.  A steep incline followed by a prolonged decline.  We seem to be following that same trend.  This is the picture of a flattened curve.  Of course the warning is still there that this is a human event.  We took action that has had a positive effect and has flattened the curve but this can easily go in the wrong direction again. 
« Last Edit: May 30, 2020, 02:42:33 AM by Admin »

PonoBill

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #319 on: May 30, 2020, 08:26:04 AM »
Facebook is full of newly minted epidemiologists and statisticians drawing all kinds of exciting conclusions from the weekly peaks. The odd thing is, despite their erudition, none of them seem to be able to spell.
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

PonoBill

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #320 on: June 04, 2020, 09:17:02 AM »
We still seem to be bumping along around 1000 deaths per day, even though it seems treatment and care have improved substantially. At the veterans care facility my oldest daughter works for, the isolation ward for COVID she volunteered to staff has been closed, most of the cases recovered, she lost only one patient but he was very sick to begin with. She's been released from controlled isolation and is home self-isolating.

I keep seeing all kinds of numbers for the death percentage, which, given the still-limited testing seems very strange. Start with an assumed number of total cases and the result is only as good as the wild-assed guess. The percentage of dead vs. confirmed cases remains about 6 percent. 5.7961891 to be pointlessly precise, unless you happen to be that "1" at the seventh decimal place.

Worldwide it's 4.36 percent based on confirmed cases. 6,622,631 confirmed cases, 388,973 deaths. Obviously the numbers aren't accurate, which is a bit bizarre since it's pretty much universally held by epidemiologists that the least destructive approach to fighting the virus is to know where the hot spots are. Of course, there are outlier experts with outlying opinions.

Here in Hood River, where we have had very few cases, there are three new outbreaks comprising 30+ positive tests, detected through increased testing and contact tracing. That's about three times what the county had previously.  It's either an artifact of more testing or an actual result from less distancing. One outbreak is at a fruit packing plant, another from a backyard barbeque. Absent more evidence I'm going with less distancing.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2020, 09:19:44 AM by PonoBill »
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

 


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