Author Topic: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily  (Read 22498 times)

PonoBill

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #285 on: April 23, 2020, 06:33:49 AM »
Maui lives here in Hood River. Still quite the hero. I admired Carl Sagan, I'm just such an introvert that extroverts make me squirm a little.
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peterp

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #286 on: April 23, 2020, 11:26:53 AM »
But the total death numbers offer a more complete portrait of the pandemic, experts say, especially because most countries report only those Covid-19 deaths that occur in hospitals.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_NN_p_20200421&instance_id=17817&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=123124401&section=topNews&segment_id=25631&te=1&user_id=1de94dbd8c722eed2380270ee571b043

This article is showing the EXACT OPPOSITE of what the CDC is reporting.  In the United States as a whole the Death total is DOWN by 18K through ~ April 4th.  But the Numbers are changing fast.  Even if there is a spike in the coming weeks, which is likely, you have to measure this continuously to see what the effect is for the entire year. 

There is a backlog of Net Negative Deaths running @ -2,000 to - 4,000 per week.  These will get consumed in the near term but at the end of time these numbers portray the net effect of Covid Big or Small.

The NYT article specifically excludes countries/cities with zero or negative change in total deaths....hence they show NYC, but not the US as a whole. The data is named: "Where we found higher deaths than normal".

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #287 on: April 23, 2020, 06:53:28 PM »
New Perspective: Covid-19 appears to bias towards the older population.  For example the following Countries have XX % over the age of 65.  ~ 85% of the deaths have attacked this age bracket (I am standing down from Comorbidity for the moment).

>> 65 years:

23%     Italy
21.5%  Germany
19.7%  France
15.4%  United States
 4.8%   Philippines

These numbers should LIMIT the potential victims from Covid-19.

I then split the Population into >> 65 and << 65 and assigned 85% of deaths to the >> 65 Crowd and 15% of Deaths to the << 65 Crowd.

This results in a separation of the Deaths per 100K residents.  This can be used to generate a Factor. 

100K Factor = Deaths / 100K Over 65
                      Deaths / 100K Under 65

Results look like this:

peterp

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #288 on: April 24, 2020, 12:34:23 AM »
New Perspective: Covid-19 appears to bias towards the older population.  For example the following Countries have XX % over the age of 65.  ~ 85% of the deaths have attacked this age bracket (I am standing down from Comorbidity for the moment).

>> 65 years:

23%     Italy
21.5%  Germany
19.7%  France
15.4%  United States
 4.8%   Philippines

These numbers should LIMIT the potential victims from Covid-19.

I then split the Population into >> 65 and << 65 and assigned 85% of deaths to the >> 65 Crowd and 15% of Deaths to the << 65 Crowd.

This results in a separation of the Deaths per 100K residents.  This can be used to generate a Factor. 

100K Factor = Deaths / 100K Over 65
                      Deaths / 100K Under 65

Results look like this:

Africa = South Africa?

Admin

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #289 on: April 24, 2020, 03:34:31 AM »
There have been some majorly upending developments lately. 

Death rate in US doesn't seem to have peaked yet.  Over 50,000 deaths in 30 days.  We were at 700 deaths 30 days ago.
Infection rate is all across the board.
Date of initial arrival and spread is all equally uncertain. 

Some stuff from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

New York State Governor Cuomo said that preliminary findings from an antibody study conducted on 3,000 people at grocery stores across New York State found a 13.9% had coronavirus antibodies, suggesting a 13.9% actual infection rate statewide (21.2% in New York City), which translates to an estimate of about 2,700,000 actual cases in New York State (10 times more than the about 270,000 cases that have been detected and reported officially). Governor Cuomo acknowledged that the official count reported by New York State (which still is not including probable deaths as recommended by the new CDC guidelines) of about 15,500 deaths is "not accurate" as it doesn't account for stay at home deaths. Based on Worldometer's count (which includes probable deaths reported by New York City) of about 21,000 deaths and the 2,700,000 case estimate from the new antibody study, the actual case fatality rate in New York State could be at around 0.78%

Area 10

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #290 on: April 25, 2020, 05:56:06 AM »
The (immediate) mortality rate is only one way of looking at the impact of CV19. A substantial number of patients will survive, but will have suffered life-limiting or quality-of-life limiting long-term damage. We have no idea what proportion of patients this applies to, or the variety of the long-term problems they will show. We won’t know this for many years, probably. But it’s worth bearing in mind that the categories of outcome are not just: (1) dead; (2) totally recovered.

Of course, the Trump supporters on this forum will now be rushing to use his suggested methods of “virus cleansing” via injection/application of caustic substances, and strong UV light inside the body. So that could add a few extra to the list of permanently disabled too.

Wetstuff

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #291 on: April 26, 2020, 08:09:26 AM »
As of  25 Apr... There's an interesting dynamic playing out in the area I am in.  The bottom county in the state of Delaware has 234,000 residents and ~1400 confirmed cases .. the four counties in Maryland that 'border' this Delaware county have 219,000 residents and 263 confirmed cases.  The entire area is mostly rural/agricultural with a focus on poultry and grain for poultry.  The Atlantic coast is developed for tourism/second homes. 

I do not have numbers, but like the midwest states with rampant spread in other meat plants, this Delaware county has a large population of undocumented workers working in chicken plants.  This whole area is sprinkled with them - they are the best roofers, drywallers, provide all the agricultural labor, and cut half the lawns in the area.  This area typically has millions of chickens in production at any given time.  In the 1960s it was mainly vegetables, but poultry dominated as 'factory farms' began to increase size and production.

Then, there's this...

https://nypost.com/2020/04/16/2-million-chickens-will-be-slaughtered-over-coronavirus-staff-issues/


In the story. ..somehow the reason for "COVID-19-related staff shortages." is not discussed.  But, I would bet the reason is in the virus count in Sussex County Delaware. Who would want to think the 'fresh' chicken you just bought was packed with the virus. 

There is a law that says a business cannot employ undocumented labor with a federal reporting requirement.  My impression is the law was written for cover and intentionally not enforced, unless politically needed.  For the most part, these people are 'disposable' if unable to work for any reason.  As shown with the Twin Towers on 9/11 ...where the cleaning and food service staff were neither accounted for nor did their families share in compensation.  We somehow both want to stop illegals from coming ...perhaps it is because we feel 11 million or so is just enough to clean our houses and care for grandma, but we will neither deport them en masse nor force the companies that employ them to provide the benefits accorded to 'regular' Americans.

As regular Americans get a Virus-bonus check, and even perhaps, a $600 weekly bonus atop their standard unemployment check, these folks are left to sweat it out.   

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Chan

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #292 on: April 26, 2020, 09:00:12 AM »
Covid clinics?  Assuming this is going to be around for a while, perhaps the government could consider implementing a program of nationwide networked clinics with limited oversight by existing medical staff (doctors, physicians assistants and nurses) and staffed instead primarily by newly, specifically trained, infectious care medical assistants who fall within the low risk covid category (no comorbidity). Education and certification could be provided to the millions of capable newly unemployed through a partnership between the CDC and private and public higher education institutions.  It would take at least a year to implement but this could be operational as soon as next spring.   With expanded care capacity, the US could take a softer voluntary approach to mitigation in the future.  The current risk to society from this virus is amplified by the inability of the existing healthcare system to absorb the needs of covid19 patient care creating the mandate to flatten the curve.  Doctors and nurses are overworked, increasing their vulnerability to infection themselves, putting an added burden on capacity for care.  ICU units can quickly exceed bed capacity with covid patients receiving primarily palliative care.  This could be managed by the new system on site, or when possible by providing families and nursing homes with support for at home care.

The current level of unemployment, not seen since the great depression, will likely be a persistent issue with staggering financial and emotional costs.  This program would be expensive, but it would provide immediate value and possibly a path to a return to normalcy.  Once in place, expanded training could allow for additional medical services to be provided though this adjunct testing and care system. 

Tom

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #293 on: April 26, 2020, 01:08:04 PM »
Wetstuff, Hence one of the reasons behind sanctuary cities and states. The fact is that there are a large number of people in the United States, particularly California, that do not have a pieces of paper to allows them to live and work here. Right or wrong, that is a fact.

In the current situation, if anyone of them has CV19, they need to be tested, cared for and quarantined. If they are afraid to seek medical help because they fear being arrested or deported, they will infect more and more people. Also, California recognizes they are are major contributor to the economy and has made efforts help them.

from CNN
Quote
Undocumented immigrants aren't getting stimulus checks from the federal government, but in California they'll be eligible for cash payments from a $125 million coronavirus disaster relief fund.
"We feel a deep sense of gratitude for people that are in fear of deportation but are still addressing the essential needs of tens of millions of Californians," Gov. Gavin Newsom said as he announced the new fund on Wednesday. "And that's why I'm proud as governor to be the very first state to announce a program for direct disaster assistance to those individuals."
The one-time benefit will provide $500 of support per adult, with a cap of $1,000 per household, Newsom's office said. The fund combines $75 million in state donations with $50 million from private philanthropists.
Some 150,000 undocumented immigrants will benefit
In announcing the move, Newsom stressed that undocumented workers are essential and over represented in many sectors keeping the state afloat, including health care, agriculture and food, manufacturing and logistics and construction.
Newsom said that 10% of California's workforce is undocumented. And though they paid over $2.5 billion in local and state taxes last year, they benefit from neither unemployment insurance nor the $2.2 trillion stimulus signed by President Trump.

Chan, great idea. Only problem is that we would need an intelligent leader at the national level to implement and oversee it.

TallDude

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #294 on: April 26, 2020, 01:47:35 PM »


Chan, great idea. Only problem is that we would need an intelligent leader at the national level to implement and oversee it.
We have a great "I mean really totally great" leader (in his own dimension) and another in the running who looks to be living in his own demencia. Cross your fingers for a great VP. 
The injection comment was just out there, as many of his are. Unfortunately, a really intelligent leader is not on the menu.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2020, 02:23:31 PM by TallDude »
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Chan

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #295 on: April 26, 2020, 03:11:16 PM »
I agree. I would like to see oversight moved out of the hands of the politicians as soon as possible.  This is quickly spiraling into an out of control pork party with unknown long-term outcomes.  With US health care costs at around 20% of GDP, the highest of any nation, we should have resources to tackle this issue.  The current expanded unemployment program will need to be phased out at some point and many jobs and sectors are not likely to bounce back in the near term.  It seems like this could be a time when some of the systemic issues responsible for our disproportionate medical spending could be addressed and with targeted education new jobs could be created in the process. 

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #296 on: April 30, 2020, 06:27:52 AM »
But the total death numbers offer a more complete portrait of the pandemic, experts say, especially because most countries report only those Covid-19 deaths that occur in hospitals.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_NN_p_20200421&instance_id=17817&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=123124401&section=topNews&segment_id=25631&te=1&user_id=1de94dbd8c722eed2380270ee571b043

This article is showing the EXACT OPPOSITE of what the CDC is reporting.  In the United States as a whole the Death total is DOWN by 18K through ~ April 4th.  But the Numbers are changing fast.  Even if there is a spike in the coming weeks, which is likely, you have to measure this continuously to see what the effect is for the entire year. 

There is a backlog of Net Negative Deaths running @ -2,000 to - 4,000 per week.  These will get consumed in the near term but at the end of time these numbers portray the net effect of Covid Big or Small.

One week later.  Net Deaths now POSITIVE.  By ~ 4,000 people. 

As in COVID is adding to MORE than expected deaths since the beginning of February.  The graph needs to be reviewed towards the end of the year to confirm whether COVID buldged the total for the US or just pushed Comorbidities along.

I am seeing a bunch of articles about EXCESS deaths.  They are usually cherry picking locations like NY City or Spain.  But NOT showing the whole picture.  It's not like Shelter in Place can work forever to keep people alive but worth considering the side effects.


Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #297 on: April 30, 2020, 06:32:07 AM »
What is the Covid-19 Death rate? 

Here is the Cross Matrix. I applied to NY State since it is the furthest Along. Population 19.5MM.

Over 65 is 15% of population but 90% of the deaths.

They have been saying that 20% have been infected but let's bump that to 30%.

This shows a split fatality rate of
  • 1.5% for those OVER 65
  • 0.05% for those UNDER 65

Assume HERD at 50% or 60% and you can ONLY double the number of Expected Deaths from Today. No more.

This would put NY State's Max Death @ ~ 36,000 (Maybe 40K)

« Last Edit: April 30, 2020, 06:35:24 AM by Beasho »

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #298 on: May 09, 2020, 03:36:59 AM »
This chart shows the world distribution of deaths from Covid-19. 


https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
« Last Edit: May 09, 2020, 03:40:35 AM by Admin »

deepmud

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #299 on: May 09, 2020, 07:22:59 AM »
The (immediate) mortality rate is only one way of looking at the impact of CV19. A substantial number of patients will survive, but will have suffered life-limiting or quality-of-life limiting long-term damage. We have no idea what proportion of patients this applies to, or the variety of the long-term problems they will show. We won’t know this for many years, probably. But it’s worth bearing in mind that the categories of outcome are not just: (1) dead; (2) totally recovered.

THIS. This worries me. We are so focused charts, and comorbidity, and trying to feel in control. Beasho's deaths Covid vs deaths we avoided by lockdown for Covid - that seems like trying to feel in control to me. There isn't much control and this is not a known virus with known outcomes. Plenty of healthy people are coming out of Covid with lung damage - yet as my state starts opening I see people out and grouping like "oh, good, this is over". It's not over. I agree there has to be some way to make a living - people have to eat - but I also see really dumb behavior. Yesterday my groceries were brought out by a young man with a mask basically on his chin. I see a lot of workers (and some public, shoppers, etc)  with masks on but noses over the top - LOTS of that - on their chin? Is this some "you can't make me!!" stuff? Defy the masks, Defy the virus? I worry my wife will be killed by this (or even myself - I'll be one of those "well, he was obese so it's not like he was going to live anyway" stats)  before we get a vaccine - and the guy delivering my food, that I am employing (via purchases) to avoid exposure, is trying to make a statement. Pisses me off and yet I know I can't fix a mass societal denial of science. People I thought were normal are posting videos about the entire Covid "hoax".  Here's my link - we live in "The Dumbest Timeline" - it's funny - and sad.  Just needs murder hornets for an update.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nfbeK5LAl0

 


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