Author Topic: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily  (Read 63039 times)

Quickbeam

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #270 on: April 21, 2020, 09:31:51 PM »
spooky article about the virus mechanisms. Dis ain't da flu: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes

Don't read it if you're feeling down, DO read it if you're still convinced this is no worse than a cold that "goes down to your chest" as one dickhead on Facebook claimed.

Very good article. Thank you for posting.
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Area 10

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #271 on: April 22, 2020, 03:02:02 AM »
I’ve already had my encounter with presumed CV19, and it’s definitely not like either a cold or a flu. There are such a wide variety of symptoms in different people, but I had the conventional respiratory symptoms, complete with pneumonia for a couple of days, a continuous cough that stopped me sleeping, shallow breathing, irregular heart beats etc. I was very glad that I am not obese and have maintained a reasonable level of fitness, because I could see how easily it could just overwhelm you. So if you haven’t had it yet, my advice would be to “get fit to fight the virus”. Maybe you’ll be one of the lucky ones who hardly notices anything. But you might be one of those who ends up requiring all the spare cardiopulmonary function they can muster.

I wonder when Trump will get it. He’s fat and in the danger zone age-wise. Biden might be at risk too. That could change things around for November. As soon as you lift the lockdown restrictions they will both be at much greater risk.

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #272 on: April 22, 2020, 06:16:24 AM »
spooky article about the virus mechanisms. Dis ain't da flu: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes

Don't read it if you're feeling down, DO read it if you're still convinced this is no worse than a cold that "goes down to your chest" as one dickhead on Facebook claimed.

I was hopeful that this would be 'like the flu' but the numbers in Belgium, Spain, Italy . . . . are already at those death rates and there is no sign of slowdown . . . . yet.  Maybe this burns through the unlucky combination of 1) Comorbidity 2) Obesity 3) Bad-Luck Genetics fast.

I don't think that everyone with that combination is at risk.  We are survivors by definition and nature plays a statistical game.  This is my pet
Quick Burn through the Underbrush theory. 

If that is true we will not reach the numbers that Herd Immunity requires even with a fatality rate below 1%. 

Global Death Rates and then there is NY (4X Flu Death Rate), NJ, MI and LA.  Not good.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2020, 06:18:28 AM by Beasho »

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #273 on: April 22, 2020, 07:50:42 AM »
... I am not obese and have maintained a reasonable level of fitness, because I could see how easily it could just overwhelm you. So if you haven’t had it yet, my advice would be to “get fit to fight the virus”. Maybe you’ll be one of the lucky ones who hardly notices anything. But you might be one of those who ends up requiring all the spare cardiopulmonary function they can muster.

...

Yes, this! This is what I have been preaching to the old people I know. Just assume C19 is unavoidable and the best way to ensure you live through it is to be prepared. I figure most of you on this board are in good shape, I mean if you are regularly taking waves on the head, you probably have some pretty good pulmonary function.

I WISH the powers that be could recognize that tougher people need less hospitalization. Sure there are outliers but if we are talking about models and statistics, this is provable. Limiting outdoor activity now that the curve has flattened is a mistake, outdoor activity should be a mandate.
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justsomeguy

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #274 on: April 22, 2020, 08:13:20 AM »
Michael Osterholm telling it like it is (again) ... finally, CNN.com posts something worthwhile.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/opinions/bergen-osterholm-interview-two-opinion/index.html
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Tom

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #275 on: April 22, 2020, 08:57:08 AM »
There's been several articles about under counted deaths. There's not even an agreement on who is counted as a C19 death or not. This is an interesting NY Times article.
 
25,000 Missing Deaths:
Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis

At least 25,000 more people have died during the coronavirus pandemic over the last month than the official Covid-19 death counts report, a review of mortality data in 11 countries shows — providing a clearer, if still incomplete, picture of the toll of the crisis.

In the last month, far more people died in these countries than in previous years, The New York Times found. The totals include deaths from Covid-19 as well as those from other causes, likely including people who could not be treated as hospitals became overwhelmed.

These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number is now four times the normal amount.

Of course, mortality data in the middle of a pandemic is not perfect. The disparities between the official death counts and the total rise in deaths most likely reflect limited testing for the virus, rather than intentional undercounting. Officially, about 165,000 people have died worldwide of the coronavirus as of Tuesday.

But the total death numbers offer a more complete portrait of the pandemic, experts say, especially because most countries report only those Covid-19 deaths that occur in hospitals.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_NN_p_20200421&instance_id=17817&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=123124401&section=topNews&segment_id=25631&te=1&user_id=1de94dbd8c722eed2380270ee571b043

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #276 on: April 22, 2020, 09:26:00 AM »
But the total death numbers offer a more complete portrait of the pandemic, experts say, especially because most countries report only those Covid-19 deaths that occur in hospitals.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_NN_p_20200421&instance_id=17817&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=123124401&section=topNews&segment_id=25631&te=1&user_id=1de94dbd8c722eed2380270ee571b043

This article is showing the EXACT OPPOSITE of what the CDC is reporting.  In the United States as a whole the Death total is DOWN by 18K through ~ April 4th.  But the Numbers are changing fast.  Even if there is a spike in the coming weeks, which is likely, you have to measure this continuously to see what the effect is for the entire year. 

There is a backlog of Net Negative Deaths running @ -2,000 to - 4,000 per week.  These will get consumed in the near term but at the end of time these numbers portray the net effect of Covid Big or Small.

Tom

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #277 on: April 22, 2020, 09:40:39 AM »
 Interesting. When I look closer I can see that the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden and Switzerland stared out with lower than average deaths per months for the first few months, Around March, deaths ramped up very quickly.

digger71

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #278 on: April 22, 2020, 10:55:53 AM »
I think we have to assume death counts from many other countries are just wrong.  Ecuador even today is reporting just over 500 deaths but in Guayaquil alone they are ~6k above the annual average for the same time period.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52329500

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #279 on: April 22, 2020, 10:59:14 AM »
Number of lives saved by mitigation efforts.  That is the real number of interest.  It is so multi-factorial, though, that we will never get any kind of accurate read. 

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #280 on: April 22, 2020, 11:57:18 AM »
Number of lives saved by mitigation efforts.  That is the real number of interest.  It is so multi-factorial, though, that we will never get any kind of accurate read. 

Yes, that is the truth of it which we will not know for years and even then the results will be skewed. The secondary healthcare crisis is not looming anymore, but taking place currently. I'm kicking myself for my post above regarding this being a safe time as we are at net negative deaths- I made the common mistake of viewing it through my personal filter. It was safe for about a month, but other health factors area catching up now.

If I had viewed it through the filter of someone missing dialysis, or being forced to change hospitals for a chemo treatment, or wondering if that recurring pain in the kidney should be looked at, etc - I would easily see that many people's health outcomes were going to be worse, without ever contracting CV19 as long as the "non-essential" portions of health services were shut down.

It is time to quickly get hospitals and labs back in motion. There are healthcare workers being furloughed while sick folks wait for  hospitals to open back up for surgeries and other services. Arbitrarily picking winners and losers (essential services versus non-essential) is failing.  The strong can help the weak if allowed to.
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Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #281 on: April 22, 2020, 12:20:27 PM »
Here is evidence that California has been simmering longer than most if not all locations.  The article suggests it takes 4 weeks for someone to contract and die meaning this person may have had Covid-19 as early as mid-January. 

Mmmmmm?  And yet we did NOT see a spike in deaths in California.  What gives?

"A person who died at home in Santa Clara County on Feb. 6 was infected with the coronavirus at the time of death, a stunning discovery that makes that individual the first recorded COVID-19 fatality in the United States, according to autopsy results released by public health officials late Tuesday.

That death — three weeks before the first fatality was reported in the U.S., in Washington state on Feb. 28 — adds to increasing evidence that the virus was in the country far earlier than once thought."


https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/First-known-U-S-coronavirus-death-occurred-on-15217316.php?fbclid=IwAR39HsgEWfUYFUNaaYHjQRIuS6qSQPjLfQnMibl5qC3pVKspvLl8seQK2TQ

« Last Edit: April 22, 2020, 12:24:00 PM by Beasho »

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #282 on: April 22, 2020, 12:25:43 PM »
Given how highly contagious this is with one of the highest R factors ever when some random person gets the Corona virus in January, from someone who spread it, both then likely spread it one dies and it went on uncontained by any shetler in place:

Why Didn't California Blow Up like New York, or New Jersey or Michigan?

As Richard Feynman has said, “One of the ways of stopping science would be only to do experiments where you know the law.”  Physics is about probing into the unknown, and “what we need is imagination, but imagination in a terrible strait-jacket.  We have to find a new view of the world that has to agree with everything that is known but disagrees in its predictions somewhere, other wise it is not interesting.  And in that disagreement it must agree with nature.  If you can find any other view of the world which agrees over the entire range where things have already been observed, but disagrees somewhere else, you may have made a great discovery.  It is very nearly impossible, but not quite. . . . “     Conclusion- In Search of Schrodinger’s Cat
« Last Edit: April 22, 2020, 12:27:56 PM by Beasho »

Subber

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #283 on: April 22, 2020, 01:35:00 PM »
USC and L.A. County Department of Public Health officials have released the preliminary results of their antibody tests, which show a surprising number of residents have been infected with the coronavirus:

"Based on the results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county’s adult population has an antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for the statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county’s adult population has an antibody to the virus — which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have been infected. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county at the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600."


600/221,000 = .27%
600/442,000 = 0.14%


https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody-testing-results-covid-19-infections-los-angeles-county/
Early antibody testing suggests COVID-19 infections in L.A. County greatly exceed documented cases
USC and L.A. County Department of Public Health officials have released the preliminary results of their antibody tests, which show a surprising number of residents have been infected with the coronavirus.
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Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #284 on: April 23, 2020, 06:27:49 AM »
PonoBill posted this elsewhere.  I found it very informative.  Along the lines of "Oh yeah I always knew that but wish I had said it."

Or more like deja vu.  When the vision goes to memory and comes right back to the front making you think you always knew it.

PonoBill was a bit more sour on Carl.  Because I grew up in Ithaca, NY and Carl was much older, he was a hometown hero.  The greatest hero I could imagine until Maui Meyer moved to town.

https://www.brainpickings.org/2014/01/03/baloney-detection-kit-carl-sagan/?fbclid=IwAR0gtcXBwGb5w7VRlNpduywmQng_AMVOyBByIpcmHBqxrP7p4XAKeb7mPiA

 


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