Author Topic: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily  (Read 63096 times)

Area 10

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #240 on: April 16, 2020, 08:31:00 AM »
There is evidence that economic recession, at least in the short term, *improves* health and mortality rates *decrease*:

http://libres.uncg.edu/ir/uncg/f/C_Ruhm_Are_2000.pdf

So this is some of what you may be seeing here.

Suicides however go up.

Modern life is bad for you :)

Nations with lowest rates of obesity, and with the most integrated and easily accessible health and welfare systems, and (probably) the least divided and most prescient governments, will presumably fare best in this crisis.

In the UK we are seeing the start of a worrying trend where deaths among people *without* CV19 are increasing, relative to baseline. This coincides with many hospital departments that are not busy with CV19 being unusually quiet. The assumption is that many people who would have otherwise have sought medical care for non-CV19 related causes are now not seeking help, perhaps because they think that if they go to hospital they will catch CV19 and it will prove a death sentence. A more charitable possibility is that people who have health conditions are "suffering in silence" because they do not want to overwhelm our National Healthcare System (NHS), which is a source of national pride in our country: healthcare free at the point of delivery for all, regardless of your economic situation. So at the moment we actually have many hospital wards with staff sitting around with very little to do, while those of course dealing with CV19 are very busy.

What is happening in the hospitals though is almost just a distraction: There are only 120k hospital beds in the UK, but there are almost 4x that many people living in care homes (mostly elderly folk who can't look after themselves), who are by-and-large the most vulnerable to this. So CV19 will probably sweep though our care home system, and then by far the greatest numbers of deaths will occur in that sector.

mrbig

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #241 on: April 16, 2020, 09:39:18 AM »
News flash. UK will wait until June before reopening. No double top rebound.

We need to fix our testing debacle first. Unlikely. Many will die..
Let it come to you..
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LaPerouseBay

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #242 on: April 16, 2020, 09:49:58 AM »
Agreed.  Testing, testing and more testing. 

My massage therapist has been on the edge of a strange illness for almost a month now.  She's highly educated in western pharmacology and Ayurvedic.  She's going to be ok.  I can't imagine the stress of having various symptoms appear and disappear over weeks.  Not enough to go to the doctor, yet she knows she has something.  She's very in tune with her body.  This bug is like nothing she's ever experienced.  She hasn't been tested for Covid but has had G.I. symptoms, very mild chest stuff off and on, no fever, mild flu symptoms.  This is a sneaky bug. 

We need testing, testing and more testing.

  https://www.medpagetoday.org/infectiousdisease/covid19/85973?vpass=1
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Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #243 on: April 16, 2020, 12:59:27 PM »
I have been screaming about CoMorbidity since I saw the statistics 3 weeks ago out of China then confirmed by Bloomberg in Italy and the data from Imperial College.  All 100% aligned on the risk to PRIOR HEALTH CONDITIONS.

Then on Sunday 60 Minutes was reporting and the doctor said "We see a high correlation with Obesity." BMI > than 40 is listed as Morbid Obesity.  And there it was the word again.

Obesity.  Might the Corona virus just target Obesity. 

Obesity as the Leading indicator of death NOT as the Last of a short list of CoMorbidities.

Obesity, Heart Disease, Cancer, Respiratory Disease . . .


Scott Pelley: Have you found a common denominator for why some patients crash so precipitously?

Dr. Mangala Narasimhan: We do think that there's some trends towards obesity, that patients who are obese seem to do-- worse and men definitely more than women.

Forward to 9:15 in the Report here:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-york-city-coronavirus-epicenter-united-states-peak-60-minutes-2020-03-29/

The New York Times is finally catching up:

"Obesity may be one of the most important predictors of severe coronavirus illness, new studies say."

“Obesity’s link to chronic diseases is well known, but the experience with H1N1 influenza in 2009 revealed that people with obesity are also more vulnerable to infectious diseases.”

“Of the 14 Covid-19 patients recently in Dr. Sanam Ahmed’s critical care unit at Mount Sinai on the Upper East Side, she said, 12 were at least 50 years old and had complex medical problems. The two younger patients, who were in their 30s, had obesity and no other diseases.”

Article here:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-obesity-higher-risk.html
« Last Edit: April 16, 2020, 01:08:32 PM by Beasho »

Quickbeam

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #244 on: April 16, 2020, 01:42:50 PM »
Agreed.  Testing, testing and more testing. 

My massage therapist has been on the edge of a strange illness for almost a month now.  She's highly educated in western pharmacology and Ayurvedic.  She's going to be ok.  I can't imagine the stress of having various symptoms appear and disappear over weeks.  Not enough to go to the doctor, yet she knows she has something.  She's very in tune with her body.  This bug is like nothing she's ever experienced.  She hasn't been tested for Covid but has had G.I. symptoms, very mild chest stuff off and on, no fever, mild flu symptoms.  This is a sneaky bug. 

We need testing, testing and more testing.

  https://www.medpagetoday.org/infectiousdisease/covid19/85973?vpass=1


LaPerouseBay,

Just curious to know if your massage therapist is still practicing? My massage therapist had to shut down and it is the one service I’m really missing. My back is not the same without her!
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LaPerouseBay

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #245 on: April 16, 2020, 03:47:25 PM »
^Her business on hold.  She has a group of "regulars" on Maui.  She's isolating due to the weird bug she may have.  All of her snowbirds are gone.  Personally, I'm doing fine without the usual two week tuneup.  I'll be on my best behavior.  If I get lazy and set something crooked - she's merciless.  That's why we love her so much...  The little old ladies can take the most pain.  Her boyfriend is built like a brick shithouse.  He's the biggest wimp of all...   :) 
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LaPerouseBay

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #246 on: April 16, 2020, 11:45:28 PM »
The video I linked on the 11th (removed from Youtube) has been replaced with this document.

https://peterattiamd.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Copy-of-Testing-update-30Mar2020.pdf   

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Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #247 on: April 17, 2020, 08:59:22 AM »
US Death Spike.  Admin also referred to this above. 

Data catch-up or Horror Show? 

Italy shown in Second Chart.  The US had been following this exact same course until today.

US Accounts for 3.6% of all Deaths for All Time in One Day from Covid-19. 

Full Model:
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzExYmM2ZWQtZWVmMS00OTI1LWE1NzYtMTU2OTk3ZGE4ZjMyIiwidCI6IjQzODE2ODE2LTY0OTYtNDU4My1iMmVmLWU5Y2U3MTg1NjI4MCIsImMiOjF9

Yesterday I was worried this was a data anomaly. 

None of the major networks reporting the spike in Death count. 

I DO think it was a catch up but here is the Wall Street Journal reporting the news ONE day late. 

From April 17th: 12:04 am

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-surges-in-some-asian-countries-that-had-been-lightly-hit-11587031743

« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 09:07:43 AM by Beasho »

Area 10

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #248 on: April 17, 2020, 09:35:33 AM »
News flash. UK will wait until June before reopening. No double top rebound.

We need to fix our testing debacle first. Unlikely. Many will die..
The US death rate from CV19 (number of deaths per million population) is perhaps only about half of what it is in the UK at this point, and as far as the data allows us to know. So the US doesn’t seem to be doing so badly so far?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #249 on: April 17, 2020, 10:55:41 AM »

The US death rate from CV19 (number of deaths per million population) is perhaps only about half of what it is in the UK at this point, and as far as the data allows us to know. So the US doesn’t seem to be doing so badly so far?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

The US was at 10 deaths per million at the beginning of the month and is at 101 today.  New York is at over 770 deaths per million.  That is almost 4 times the deaths per million of the UK.  We have a lot of regions that are just now starting to see big losses. 

« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 11:06:23 AM by Admin »


Night Wing

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #251 on: April 17, 2020, 01:37:39 PM »
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Tom

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #252 on: April 17, 2020, 01:53:30 PM »
Wait a minute. Mr. Israeli Professor says
Quote
His graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the sixth week and rapidly subsiding by the eighth week.


if you look at California, with a population 40 million  vs Michigan with a population of 10 million their infection patterns show that at teir peak, California had 93 deaths per day and Michigan has 200 deaths per day.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/michigan

I really don't see the as experiencing identical patterns.

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #253 on: April 17, 2020, 02:14:36 PM »
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Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #254 on: April 17, 2020, 02:45:58 PM »
Here is another Interesting Angle. 

Homeless People Immune

A West Coast healthcare worker was asked about the impact to the homeless population the response was something like this:

"We know that those with pre-existing conditions are highest at risk (CoMorbid - my word not hers) but if those conditions like dementia were going to kill them from wandering into a street and getting hit by a bus then they would have already died. They are the hardened survivors of untreated conditions."

From Article below:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now “actively looking into” results from universal COVID-19 testing at a Boston homeless shelter.  The broad-scale testing took place at the Pine Street Inn homeless shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there.  Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.

https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/trending/coronavirus-cdc-reviewing-stunning-universal-testing-results-boston-homeless-shelter/ZADQ45HCAZEVJAZA3OTCUR7M6M/
« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 02:53:50 PM by Beasho »

 


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