Author Topic: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily  (Read 20844 times)

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #150 on: April 05, 2020, 08:09:12 AM »
There won't be articles about the US having a low fatality rate because models show us being near or at the top of the list for highest fatality rate in the next month. Moreover, scientists believe that this will extend well into next year and that we will be back fighting our early decisions for a long time.

No No No!  Those are BAD MODELS!!!@!
[/b]

These statements are what keep me running the numbers. 

At one point people said "Italy is 2 weeks ahead of the United States."  This was 100% False.  The United States was infected 10 Days Earlier than ITALY.   100% False.

Then Germany receives praise for having a low death rate.  The United States has been Trending with Germany.  AS LOW AS GERMANY.

Current Heat map shows Germany is Growing Faster than the United States.  See 2nd Graph.

This line chart shows the Total Fatality Rate FOR Entire Countries.  The United States has NEVER risen above 4% on any given day where Italy and Spain have been above 10% for 3+ Weeks.  I had to take FRANCE off because it is way above 20%. 

No Comparison. Days Matter.  Isolation Matters.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2020, 08:18:07 AM by Beasho »

Chan

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #151 on: April 05, 2020, 08:41:14 AM »
Beasho,

What do you think will happen to the mortality rates if/when the US exceeds its medical care capacity as has happened in Italy and France?  I hope it doesn't, but every news report I've read claims it will in the near term.  This is regrettable on so many levels.  I'm sure we're all wishing beyond reason that the outcomes in the briefings prove to be cautionary not actual.

PonoBill

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #152 on: April 05, 2020, 09:11:00 AM »
What's absent in the notion of "judge the governors on the death rate" is the simple difference in the nature of the states they govern. North Dakota has the most effective governor by that measure.
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Quickbeam

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #153 on: April 05, 2020, 09:11:36 AM »
Beasho you asked earlier what is the definition of success and then went on to say you believed less death is good. It’s hard to argue with this.

But my first reply to your post was not about success. My reply was about leadership. I was replying in particular to your statement saying that if Trump would have acted sooner people would have called him a kook. I then called this statement from you into question as I believe Trump should have acted sooner and by his failure to do so, and on many other fronts, he has shown very poor leadership.

So let me explain why I don’t think you can equate success in terms of death rates between different regions, to leadership. First of all, death rates can be attributed to many things. As an example one area may have an older population or its’ citizens may have more underlying health problems. Or it could have a more densely populated citizenry. So if you have an older population with more underlying health problems in a more densely packed area, then even if this area has a strong leader, they may still have a higher death rate than a different area that has a younger population that is more spread out, even if this second area has a weaker leader.

So I don’t believe the death rate between different regions can be used to determine who is or is not a strong leader. I would agree that a strong leader in a particular region should equate to a lower death rate in that particular region. This won’t always be the case as even strong leaders can make mistakes, but generally speaking, I would agree that a strong leader in a particular region should equate to a lower death rate in that region.

My point however, through all of this is that Trump has failed to show anything close to strong leadership.

It was you Beasho who said that if Trump had acted sooner people would have called him a kook. And it was this statement from you that prompted me to reply.

And since I’ve tried to answer your question about success and leadership, let me ask you a direct question.

Do you believe President Trump has shown strong leadership during the Covid 19 pandemic?
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Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #154 on: April 05, 2020, 10:06:12 AM »
OK!  I just spent a bunch of Time to Pull and Validate the US States Data.

This gets interesting.  Here is an overview. 

I will remind of my Motto from 3 weeks ago.

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #155 on: April 05, 2020, 10:10:54 AM »
What's absent in the notion of "judge the governors on the death rate" is the simple difference in the nature of the states they govern. North Dakota has the most effective governor by that measure.

Nope!  Wyoming is Winning.  Here is the view by STATE.  Please share your source - Who is saying North Dakota has a low death rate?

Worst to Best and Best to Worst.

Source: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/master/us-counties.csv
« Last Edit: April 05, 2020, 10:23:22 AM by Beasho »

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #156 on: April 05, 2020, 10:20:12 AM »
Hi Beasho,

Your own estimate of 82,000 deaths in the US is 248 deaths per Million people.  That is the same as where Italy is today.  You had also mentioned that Italy's curve was flattening.  New York will sadly pass Italy today or tomorrow in Death/Population.  New York is projected to have 16000 dead in a month's time.  That is higher than the current death count for the entire Country of Italy today (NY has one third of Italy's population). 

Scientists are providing a wide range of models for the US as a whole depending largely on our performance as a society, but most have us at over 100,000 deaths even with a nationwide (all states in compliance) stay at home order.  You are basing your assumptions largely on start dates that are believed to be incorrect and testing data that is known to be inaccurate.  As I mentioned in an earlier post, Countries like Italy have intentionally limited their tests over time while others have broadened.  That is not a contested fact.

« Last Edit: April 05, 2020, 10:30:06 AM by Admin »

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #157 on: April 05, 2020, 10:50:27 AM »
OK - This is where it gets interesting.  I filtered on CASES Reported >>100 per municipality. 

This accounts for ~ 91% of all Cases in US.

Here is the Sort Order on those County Cities by Descending Death %. 

Not a single ONE LOCATION OF SIZE IN THE UNITED STATES at the Average of:

ITALY (14.6%), SPAIN (10.3%) OR FRANCE (12.7%) Average for the past 2 weeks.

Not one of more than 2,400 locations. 

Only 20 locations are over 5% with any appreciable number of CASES.


If you understand the MATH, Diversification Effect, Law of Averages and Normal Curves this should be VERY Revealing.  Virtually Impossible.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2020, 11:21:51 AM by Beasho »

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #158 on: April 05, 2020, 11:12:19 AM »
You had asked us to focus on the bodies a few posts back.  That is indeed the telling number.  The relationship of deaths to cases (where the data is known to be super inaccurate) is not going to be of any interest in hindsight.

Again, New York will have more Deaths/Population than Italy in the next two days and is projected to have almost 4 times Italy within a month.  The US as a whole is projected to have 4 times the Deaths and substantially higher Death/Population.

Quickbeam

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #159 on: April 05, 2020, 11:26:57 AM »
I tried earlier to answer your question Beasho as to what I believe is the definition of success.

But you have ignored my question.

So I’ll ask it again. Do you believe Donald Trump has shown strong leadership during the Covid 19 Pandemic?

And I’ll add if you do believe Donald Trump has shown strong leadership, can you please provide examples to support your belief.
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Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #160 on: April 05, 2020, 11:29:35 AM »
You had asked us to focus on the bodies a few posts back.  That is indeed the telling number.  The relationship of deaths to cases (where the data is known to be super inaccurate) is not going to be of any interest in hindsight.

Again, New York will have more Deaths/Population than Italy in the next two days and is projected to have almost 4 times Italy within a month.  The US as a whole is projected to have 4 times the Deaths and substantially higher Death/Population.

Admin - Here is what NY looks like.  I had to dig deeper into CASE counts to >50.  There are only 3 locations with Death Rates Higher than 5%.

This is NO WHERE Near the 10%, 15%+ that Italy has been reporting for the past 3 weeks.  Please share your data.

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #161 on: April 05, 2020, 11:35:57 AM »
But you have ignored my question.
/quote]

Please bring data to support your arguments of Good / Bad leadership.  If you want to to spin a narrative on how much you love or hate Trump please start another thread.

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #162 on: April 05, 2020, 11:44:59 AM »
Hi Beasho,

It looks like your Data is a day old.  In that time NY has jumped from the 3200 deaths on your chart to the 4100 at Johns Hopkins (before noon).  NY is early in the curve and is escalating at an awful pace.  The US is as well.  Italy is slowing.

I circled cases for reference but I am not considering cases at all.  Your charts take no account for population which is really what matters.  Deaths in relations to population.


« Last Edit: April 05, 2020, 11:47:12 AM by Admin »

Quickbeam

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #163 on: April 05, 2020, 11:47:42 AM »
But you have ignored my question.
/quote]

Please bring data to support your arguments of Good / Bad leadership.  If you want to to spin a narrative on how much you love or hate Trump please start another thread.



O.K. Beasho, you don’t want to answer my question. I’ll leave it alone, other than to remind you that it was you who opened this up by saying if Trump would have acted sooner he would have been called a kook. It was you who brought Trump into this, not me. I simply reacted to your statement and now you are refusing to back up what you said.




« Last Edit: April 05, 2020, 12:22:35 PM by Quickbeam »
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Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #164 on: April 05, 2020, 11:55:57 AM »
Hi Beasho,
It looks like your Data is a day old.  In that time NY has jumped from the 3200 deaths on your chart to the 4100 at Johns Hopkins (before noon).  NY is early in the curve and is escalating at an awful pace.  The US is as well.  Italy is slowing.

Yes - John's Hopkins data is slightly ahead.  I was using that John's Hopkins data but it was a problem because they kept shifting columns and moving data fields.   Fortunately the data is in-line with the WHO data. 

Let's assume the jump goes from ~ 114,500 to 122,000 that would be 7,500 new cases.  My source for COUNTY level information is from New York Times. 

This over the 122,000 would be 16 Days to double putting NY in the Decelerating Camp.  Much like Italy. 

A total horror show but the CASE rate slowing % as measured by Days to Double. 

I think Cuomo is also confirming this when he says the peak should come in 2 or 3 days (from memory).
« Last Edit: April 05, 2020, 12:04:22 PM by Beasho »