Author Topic: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily  (Read 20626 times)

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #135 on: April 04, 2020, 06:24:11 AM »
I appreciate the data.

Adding up those 8 years totals: 303,000 deaths from the flu

According to estimates 700,000 people died from the Spanish Flu and it lasted 2 years. 

The common influenza killed 43% as many people in modern times but over a slightly longer time period. 

Either way these are some horrible numbers that until Corona never made the nightly news.

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surfcowboy

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #137 on: April 04, 2020, 08:19:36 AM »
Also want to pitch in, in a non panicked way, that just because the net deaths stay the same in a model doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t take measures against this.

We can’t drop traffic deaths. We can mitigate these.

We’ve now seen that unimpeded, this thing runs like fire. Even if the deaths didn’t spike, the potential damage to the economy (and humans) from sick leave and hospital overload would be huge.

This isn’t Ebola, but it’s not the flu either that we can let “run its course.” It’s also a great dry run for our country for when a more serious one hits. Sadly, it takes an event like this to wake us up. 9/11 made us more secure from terrorism. Katrina made us reevaluate FEMA. This will ensure that Americans know how to handle the next one. Businesses will know how to be more resilient. And this is not political, I swear, but we will not sleep on funding research and response teams from now on.

If we get all of that out of this, then it’s been worth it to me. Painful, sad, but worth it.

Beasho, thank you for this service to our community. ERSI (ArcGIS) just reached out to my company for some help yesterday and I am thrilled we get to poke around with their stuff. Your visualizations are top notch.

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #138 on: April 04, 2020, 11:09:29 AM »
. . . .
Beasho, thank you for this service to our community. ERSI (ArcGIS) just reached out to my company for some help yesterday and I am thrilled we get to poke around with their stuff. Your visualizations are top notch.

Thank you for this.  I started this rampage because I wanted to figure out what was going on and don't trust the experts.  No scientist ever should. 

Someone posted about blaming the CCP in China.  I tried to bring up the topic last night with my wife and kids and they all Mutiny'd on me "Dad we don't want to talk about it .  . ." 

My point was going to be that this is biology.   And the biology is hard or in some cases impossible to stop.  The Asian countries have seen this before China, Singapore . . They locked down immediately.  Even if we had closed off traffic to China 3 weeks earlier would it have mattered.  How many infected people of the reported 750,000 Chinese that came to the US in Nov, Dec, and Jan would it have taken to kick this thing off.  1, 10, 25, 300?  Maybe just 1. 

To your point this had to wake the United States up.  We haven't had a pandemic in a while and thought it couldn't happen.  Unfortunately people have to die before behavior changes.  People make fun of Trump but what if he had acted sooner they would have called him a kook. 

If the Military had shot down the planes on the way to the World Trade centers there would have been h-ll to pay.  Now we know it should have been done. 

History will play out.  I hope my graphs help.

Quickbeam

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #139 on: April 04, 2020, 11:28:10 AM »
People make fun of Trump but what if he had acted sooner they would have called him a kook.

No, I think they might have called him responsible.

You have done a lot of really good work Beasho and I commend you on it. But I simply cannot agree with the highlighted statement. He could have, and should have acted sooner. First Trump said Covid 19 was a hoax. Then he said it was no big deal and would go away. Then he said it was all under control and was nothing to worry about. And then, after something he saw on Fox TV, he said that he wanted to get the economy back up and running by Easter. Trump has been the model for how you don’t want a leader to act during a pandemic.
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Chan

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #140 on: April 04, 2020, 12:39:38 PM »
Trump has openly admitted that his initial response to this pandemic was wrong.  He said in a recent press conference, “some people” are saying that the country should merely “ride it out. Don’t do anything, just ride it out and think of it as the flu.”.  Inside sources revealed it was Trump himself who suggested "the just ride it out" strategy.   Trumps wealth protected business experiences and privileged upbringing have influenced his ideology and leadership style.  He views a high tolerance for risk as a strength.  Born into immense wealth and opportunity, he has never suffered the consequences of his past failures.  He’s walked away from bankruptcies, bad decisions, marriages, with little consequence.  He graduated from Wharton at a time when strong leadership included a calloused view toward human suffering and a strong bias towards leaders who followed their gut instincts.  Strong leaders didn't let emotional concerns or human compassion interfere with commerce.  Decisiveness and economic expansion were foremost. 

I was reminded in contrast of an anecdote, I think in Gladwell’s Outliers, of the Israeli leader who carried a note in his pocket “What if I’m wrong”   America would be in a much better place if the current leader had shared at least some of this questioning open mindedness.  If I’m wrong, millions of people will die unnecessarily and the US will have the highest percentage of deaths per capita of any industrialized nation.  Or, if I’m wrong, and proceed with an abundance of caution, incoming potentially exposed individuals will be needlessly quarantined for weeks.  If I'm wrong stay at home orders will be instituted and early social distancing implemented slowing the economy for weeks (but not months or years).  America now has far more infected than China, more than any other nation.  America, the wealthiest nation, will pay the greatest human cost and likely suffer the most economically.

Tom

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #141 on: April 04, 2020, 12:43:23 PM »
People make fun of Trump but what if he had acted sooner they would have called him a kook.

No, I think they might have called him responsible.

You have done a lot of really good work Beasho and I commend you on it. But I simply cannot agree with the highlighted statement. He could have, and should have acted sooner. First Trump said Covid 19 was a hoax. Then he said it was no big deal and would go away. Then he said it was all under control and was nothing to worry about. And then, after something he saw on Fox TV, he said that he wanted to get the economy back up and running by Easter. Trump has been the model for how you don’t want a leader to act during a pandemic.

I don't think the issues with Trump are so much that he waited too long to act, which he did, but the fact that he isn't a leader. He sends out mixed and unclear messages, he doesn't take responsibility, and he blames others. If you look at how the governors of California and New York take the lead, you'd see what we need.
 

Quickbeam

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #142 on: April 04, 2020, 01:09:54 PM »
I don't think the issues with Trump are so much that he waited too long to act, which he did, but the fact that he isn't a leader. He sends out mixed and unclear messages, he doesn't take responsibility, and he blames others. If you look at how the governors of California and New York take the lead, you'd see what we need.

Absolutely agree with you Tom. Trump is simply not capable of strong leadership. He doesn’t have it in him.

I should also give full disclosure in that I am not an American. I am Canadian. I have not always been happy with our political leaders, but for the most part I think most of them have handled this situation well. I live in British Columbia and our Provincial Government has so far done a good job. The Government is forming policy and making decisions based on the science and the medical recommendations.

And what I really like is that while the Government and its’ Ministers remain present and accountable, they are bringing our Chief Medical Officer to the forefront. Chief Medical Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry has gained widespread respect and acclaim for the way she diligently and confidently, and with compassion, comes on TV every day and gives us the news and then answers questions. Adrian Dix is our Health Minister for the Government and he also participates in these daily press conferences, but it is Dr. Bonnie Henry who is taking the lead and who fields the majority of the questions. If we get through this pandemic in our Province it will be because of the leadership of Dr. Bonnie Henry, and also because we had politicians who were smart enough to let her take the lead.
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all~wet

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #143 on: April 04, 2020, 01:16:06 PM »
There are many actions he could have taken at a very early date w/ no impact on ordinary citizens, little risk and heaps of upside. We'd be in a much greater position today and have mitigated an awful lot of pain, suffering, death and yes- economic loss.

It has been established he had intelligence reports in late December warning of a developing pandemic. How different would things be if he'd done any of the following heck- even February or March):

1). Preparation for acquiring /developing the means for widespread testing.
   
2). Mobilizing /preparing medical infrastructure, personnel, supplies, production, supply channels

3) Developed an organized unified plan with contingencies

4) Mobilized State Agencies

5) Not undermined truth, epidemiological / medical experts
   
There's more- but that's a good start. No one would have called him a kook. If it was negative headlines he could have done all of this with little attention or what he always does- blame someone else. And...this doesn't even address the impact his penchant for eviscerating and underfunding federal agencies that don't serve his corporate agenda or appointing incompetent unqualified Lackeys to lead them.  Sorry- rant over. I'll promptly, kindly go invisible and refocus on my family and things I have control over.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2020, 01:29:41 PM by all~wet »

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #144 on: April 04, 2020, 06:17:40 PM »
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Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #145 on: April 04, 2020, 09:51:31 PM »
People make fun of Trump but what if he had acted sooner they would have called him a kook.

No, I think they might have called him responsible.

. . . . If you look at how the governors of California and New York take the lead, you'd see what we need.

Let's do a Comparison of States and therefore Governors.  As measured by Deaths per 100K of its residents

1) State of Washington - Longest Exposure Got Surprised
2) California - Almost as Long an Exposure Sheltered in Place EARLY - Gavin Newsome doing well
3) New York - TERRIBLE Nearly as Bad as Italy and Spain.  NY might overtake those countries.

There is no comparison between NY and California with regards to the efficacy of their response. 

How else should can you rate their leadership?
« Last Edit: April 04, 2020, 10:09:51 PM by Beasho »

Quickbeam

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #146 on: April 04, 2020, 11:08:06 PM »
People make fun of Trump but what if he had acted sooner they would have called him a kook.

No, I think they might have called him responsible.

. . . . If you look at how the governors of California and New York take the lead, you'd see what we need.

Let's do a Comparison of States and therefore Governors.  As measured by Deaths per 100K of its residents

1) State of Washington - Longest Exposure Got Surprised
2) California - Almost as Long an Exposure Sheltered in Place EARLY - Gavin Newsome doing well
3) New York - TERRIBLE Nearly as Bad as Italy and Spain.  NY might overtake those countries.

There is no comparison between NY and California with regards to the efficacy of their response. 

How else should can you rate their leadership?


You have taken quotes from a few different posters and molded them all into one. And I’m really not sure what point you’re trying to make. So let me be clear about the point I was making, which is that in my opinion, Trump is a poor excuse for a leader.

You said if Trump would have acted sooner people would have called him a kook. Maybe they would, maybe they wouldn’t. We will never know. But even if they did, so what? Lives could have been saved if he would have acted sooner. Is that worth the price of being called a kook? I would certainly hope so.

Trump went so far as to say he didn’t want people to come off one of the cruise ships because it would make the numbers look bad. Not because they might infect others. Not because it might make others sick. No, he didn’t want to offer help because it would inflate the numbers. I wonder how the numbers look now?

Not once have I ever heard Trump take any responsibility for any of his inaction. In fact, he’s done the very opposite. After saying it was a hoax and then saying it would just go away, he then said he knew it was a pandemic before they were calling it a pandemic. Confusing? Yes. Leadership? No.

People make mistakes. Leaders make mistakes. I can admire someone who makes a mistake, owns it, and then learns from it and doesn’t let it happen again. Certainly haven’t seen any of that from Trump.

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Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #147 on: April 04, 2020, 11:20:50 PM »
Agreed.  Lots of Quotes at Once.  I was responding to Tom's quote:

. . . . If you look at how the governors of California and New York take the lead, you'd see what we need.

I will ask again "What is your definition of success."  This is not easy discussion but I think less death is good.

By every metric, today, Italy has done the poorest job on the planet.  Followed now by Spain. 

People are writing articles on Germany and how effective it has been at protecting its people.  Percentage wise the United States is Tracking with Germany and Japan with the lowest mortality rates in the World. 

Where is the news about the United States low mortality rates?

Articles on Germany:
https://reason.com/2020/03/30/early-and-broad-testing-helps-explain-why-covid-19-looks-less-lethal-in-germany/

Another:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/germany-has-a-low-coronavirus-mortality-rate-heres-why.html
« Last Edit: April 04, 2020, 11:23:47 PM by Beasho »

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #148 on: April 05, 2020, 01:49:24 AM »
I have been impressed by Cuomo and NY's response.  They were the 4th state to issue a stay at home order (3 days after California).  They have been vigilant in supporting the suggestions of the CDC and WHO.  They have been vocal in their education about social distancing.  They have been exemplary in terms of real time information.  They have been equal parts compassionate and stern.  Moreover, they have been doing something really difficult which is assembling resources, hospitals, etc and expending funds for numbers that were/are projected but had not arrived yet.  That takes political courage.  What is the critique of NY's response?  I could understand questioning why they and other states seem so under inventorized in terms of medical gear but I am seeing an exemplary response.  What am I missing?

NYC is difficult.  As a huge hub for international travel and commerce and with such a condensed population riding subways, etc they are set up to be unusually impacted by a disease like this.  From the city we have seen a rapid spread to rural areas.

NY as a whole is very likely going to pass Italy in Deaths/Population in the next 3 days.  NY is only a State of 20 Million but it's stats would place it as one of the 3 hardest hit countries in the world and it may soon pass Italy as the absolute worst.

NY has been doing it right.  Unfortunately, the entire country has been battling dismissal, misinformation and ambiguity from the top.  This has affected all states including those with the highest inherent risks.  Leadership starts at the top.  The thing that will resonate with many of us long after this event has ended is the Hubris.  It would have been so easy for the president to simply publicly agree with the CDC, WHO etc.  The easy button was right there.  A presidential advisory that our scientific agencies had informed him of a real threat to our health, our economy and our national security and that they were proposing a set of behaviors that would mitigate the problem.  A statement that he was personally concerned about that and that he was advising the country of their patriotic duty to follow the proposed guidelines.  Special note that he himself, his family and his staff would be diligently following the guidelines.  Tell me that Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, both Bushes, Clinton, Obama, John McCain, Mitt Romney, etc. would not have done that as president.  It is crazy that we do not have stay at home orders in all states yet.  Any other president would be exerting maximum pressure to get that done.

There won't be articles about the US having a low fatality rate because models show us being near or at the top of the list for highest fatality rate in the next month.  Moreover, scientists believe that this will extend well into next year and that we will be back fighting our early decisions for a long time.

« Last Edit: April 05, 2020, 02:44:46 AM by Admin »

SUPladomi

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #149 on: April 05, 2020, 03:07:21 AM »
I have been impressed by Cuomo and NY's response.  They were the 4th state to issue a stay at home order (3 days after California). 

I agree with your points and would just add that NY took decisive action and quarantined New Rochelle much earlier, I believe it was March 3rd. Unfortunately, in hindsight it was insufficient. This suggests to me that the strategy of states doing geographic roll outs of stay at home is not effective. By extension, advocacy for stay at home orders in all 50 states would make sense to me, but it seems very unlikely to me that Trump would take such a bold step.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2020, 03:19:08 AM by SUPladomi »