Author Topic: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily  (Read 19445 times)

Thatspec

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #120 on: April 02, 2020, 01:08:17 PM »
Oops, looks like back a page you'd already looked at it that way but thanks for re-posting :)

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #121 on: April 03, 2020, 04:58:50 AM »
This site has an unbelievable set of interactive charts.  https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus I am unsure if it was posted before (if so apologies) but it is well worth a look.  You can change from log to linear, add or remove countries and advance the charts over time.  Or restrict them by time ranges. 

In this one they are looking just at deaths over time using days since the 5th total confirmed death. 

I saw a briefing with Andrew Cuomo last night saying that with full measures adhered to his numbers are showing 16,000 projected deaths for NY state.  Population of 20 M. (800 deaths per million).   He also said that he believed that the actual number which Dr Fauci had given the president was 94,000 deaths nationally if all measures were strictly adhered to nationally (all states).  With a population of 330 Million in the US that is 284 deaths per million people.    For reference Spain is currently at 190 deaths per million and Italy is at 220 deaths per million, New York is currently at 150 deaths per million.



« Last Edit: April 03, 2020, 10:18:09 AM by Admin »

SUP Leave

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #122 on: April 03, 2020, 07:45:44 AM »
It would be interesting to see how many of the comorbidity C19 deaths would have occurred anyway from other causes in 2020 (based on prior years data). The fear mongers want us to believe it's 1918, the naysayers the opposite. As is always the case, the truth will be somewhere in the middle ::)

Here is that View.  2017 Death Data for the United States. 

I am estimating 82,000 deaths from Corona and how that would look if SLID into the profile from ~2 years ago.  This model assumes

--> NO NET INCREASE IN DEATH

In other words Corona just takes the place of the other CoMorbidities for the Year.

This is a really interesting chart and is something I have been telling everyone I have come into contact with. Even if we hit Fauci's 120k deaths, we are looking at a benign year as far as death tolls go.

The problem with your chart is that the accident rate is dropping immensely due to the stay at home order for huge population areas. This is likely to be one of the safest years on record. Hospitals that ramped up to prepare for CV19 in rural areas, have had to send people home because there has not been anything to do. Our local small hospital is usually busy but they are hitting the realization that their revenue in March and April is tanking, and they are about to do a layoff - unless they can get in on some CV -19 relief.

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #123 on: April 03, 2020, 08:44:54 AM »
It would be interesting to see how many of the comorbidity C19 deaths would have occurred anyway from other causes in 2020 (based on prior years data). The fear mongers want us to believe it's 1918, the naysayers the opposite. As is always the case, the truth will be somewhere in the middle ::)

Here is that View.  2017 Death Data for the United States. 

I am estimating 82,000 deaths from Corona and how that would look if SLID into the profile from ~2 years ago.  This model assumes

--> NO NET INCREASE IN DEATH

In other words Corona just takes the place of the other CoMorbidities for the Year.



I don't quite understand what you did.  I see the 2017 #'s come from here https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm .  I get that 82,000 is your estimated US Corona deaths but where are you getting the other figures in that column on your chart?  An estimate of 2020?
« Last Edit: April 03, 2020, 08:47:09 AM by Admin »

TallDude

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #124 on: April 03, 2020, 09:51:16 AM »
Traffic accident death rate since Stay at Home order in California. UC Davis study. It's about 50% drop.
 https://roadecology.ucdavis.edu/files/content/projects/COVID_CHIPs_Impacts.pdf
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TallDude

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #125 on: April 03, 2020, 10:38:02 AM »
It's not overhead to me!
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surfinJ

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #126 on: April 03, 2020, 10:50:03 AM »
Sorry to jump back in but the high side estimates plus follow on corona related deaths and we are talking 2,000,000.

My buddy just recovered after a 2 week fight in NY. No hospital admittance since he could still breath. He went 5 times. No testing either.

He is 59, non smoker, occasional drinker and no other comormidity factors.

Some days he thought he was going to die.

ninja tuna

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #127 on: April 03, 2020, 12:04:15 PM »
I thought the guy that came out with the model about the 2 million came out last week and said that he was wrong. And wrong by a factor of 25.  His 2.2 million number should have been about 88,000.

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #128 on: April 03, 2020, 12:22:57 PM »
I thought the guy that came out with the model about the 2 million came out last week and said that he was wrong. And wrong by a factor of 25.  His 2.2 million number should have been about 88,000.

You can read his comments on that and much more in his feed below.  Essentially, he (and all other epidemiologists) suggested social distancing, which they instructed would reduce the spread of the disease and reduce the eventual death count.  As that occurs (or doesn't) the estimates will need to continually be adjusted. 

As a side note, he tested positive for Coronavirus on the 19th.

https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294815200124928
« Last Edit: April 03, 2020, 12:44:08 PM by Admin »

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #129 on: April 03, 2020, 05:37:43 PM »
This site has an unbelievable set of interactive charts.  https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus I am unsure if it was posted before (if so apologies) but it is well worth a look.  You can change from log to linear, add or remove countries and advance the charts over time.  Or restrict them by time ranges.

You guys are killing me.  Do you realize that every model I have published has been INTERACTIVE with all 180 countries.  Click around you can select countries.  Select All.  Sort the Data Tabel . . . . .  It is all pulled from the same data but I have organized it 'differently.'

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzExYmM2ZWQtZWVmMS00OTI1LWE1NzYtMTU2OTk3ZGE4ZjMyIiwidCI6IjQzODE2ODE2LTY0OTYtNDU4My1iMmVmLWU5Y2U3MTg1NjI4MCIsImMiOjF9

« Last Edit: April 03, 2020, 05:43:10 PM by Beasho »

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #130 on: April 03, 2020, 05:39:26 PM »

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #131 on: April 03, 2020, 05:46:59 PM »
I added a new view (not yet published).  Heat map vs. Time. This shows the Days to Double and how things are improving Country by Country.

Green Better RED Bad.  Sorted by Today Worst to Best.

Japan Heated back up.  Canada at the TOP of the list.  These are Countries in their greatest GROWTH phase. 

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #132 on: April 03, 2020, 05:50:01 PM »
It would be interesting to see how many of the comorbidity C19 deaths would have occurred anyway from other causes in 2020 (based on prior years data). The fear mongers want us to believe it's 1918, the naysayers the opposite. As is always the case, the truth will be somewhere in the middle ::)

Here is that View.  2017 Death Data for the United States. 

I am estimating 82,000 deaths from Corona and how that would look if SLID into the profile from ~2 years ago.  This model assumes

--> NO NET INCREASE IN DEATH

In other words Corona just takes the place of the other CoMorbidities for the Year.

I don't quite understand what you did.  I see the 2017 #'s come from here https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

I get that 82,000 is your estimated US Corona deaths but where are you getting the other figures in that column on your chart?  An estimate of 2020?

YES Estimate of 2020.

I took the Total Deaths in 2017 of 2.8MM people.  Then I put IN the Corona Virus. 

Let's assume that the EXACT SAME NUMBER OF PEOPLE DIE THIS YEAR in 2020.  If Corona Virus is entered in how much would OTHER CoMorbidities have to DROP to keep the net change for the year at zero.

It turns out it is a 4.8% drop evenly spread to Cancer, Heart Disease, Respiratory Disease, Stroke, Diabetes and other Influenza.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2020, 06:20:45 PM by Beasho »

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #133 on: April 03, 2020, 06:01:00 PM »
I saw a briefing with Andrew Cuomo last night saying that with full measures adhered to his numbers are showing 16,000 projected deaths for NY state.  Population of 20 M. (800 deaths per million).   He also said that he believed that the actual number which Dr Fauci had given the president was 94,000 deaths nationally if all measures were strictly adhered to nationally (all states).  With a population of 330 Million in the US that is 284 deaths per million people. 

In business we call what the president did on Sunday 3/29, announcing 1.1MM to 2.2MM deaths as possible "establishing a baseline."  This way you have an objective to measure against and succeed.

He, or Fuaci, then warned of 100K to 240K possible deaths given the measures taken. 

The president would NOT let that number get stated unless he could provide MORE successful results.  Therefore YES the real number is likely below 100K.  I suspect the real number could be HALF of that ~ 50,000.  BUT if it were 94K and it resulted in 284 deaths per 1MM that would be just above the data I showed for 2017 mortality of 17.1 Deaths per 100K from Influenza or 171 Deaths per Million.   
« Last Edit: April 03, 2020, 06:04:19 PM by Beasho »

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #134 on: April 04, 2020, 01:18:48 AM »
Flu deaths vary greatly by year.  CDC #'s below.  You can see why Neil Ferguson in the link above  had mentioned, "Let me be clear. This virus has a lethality substantially in excess of “seasonal” flu."  That is why even with the extraordinary measures currently being taken all of these estimates greatly exceed the flu average in resulting deaths.  Add to that that the flu, etc will continue to kill alongside Coronavirus. 



https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
« Last Edit: April 04, 2020, 01:30:45 AM by Admin »