Author Topic: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily  (Read 20165 times)

LaPerouseBay

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #105 on: March 31, 2020, 02:40:43 PM »
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SaMoSUP

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #106 on: April 01, 2020, 12:55:22 PM »
All this covid-19 forecasting reminds me of how experts try to predict the stock market. The Dow Jones or S&P is gonna peak at (insert number) by (insert date). Dr. Fauci and team may or may not be any better than Jerome Powell and all the so called financial experts at predicting their respective subject matter.

Maybe they should have stock market experts have a go at covid-19 forecasting. Or if Dr. Fauci and team get it right, they should try their hand at the stock market next.

This is what I'm tracking these days since stay at home in CA.



« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 12:58:33 PM by SaMoSUP »

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #107 on: April 01, 2020, 01:16:26 PM »
All this covid-19 forecasting reminds me of how experts try to predict the stock market. The Dow Jones or S&P is gonna peak at (insert number) by (insert date)....

Sweet curves.  The inflections should happen at the same time.

Meanwhile.  More data supporting CoMorbidity and Corona's relationship with the common Influenza.  Maybe the angry red headed step kid to the Flu.

Article from Zero Hedge.  It takes people with Pre-Existing Conditions for the Corona Virus to propagate.  There are only so many people in a given population.

“Italy's mild flu season left a larger victim pool for COVID-19. This would suggest that the US, which has struggled with more lethal flu seasons, won't have as large a pool of potential high-risk victims, especially as testing suggests the virus is more widespread than many had expected.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/whats-behind-italys-outrageous-10-mortality-rate-covid-19

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #108 on: April 01, 2020, 01:19:38 PM »
Latest observations:

Italy has topped out.  The maximum number of new cases was 10 days ago on March 22nd @   The US is in a high burn phase.  1 Week Forecast stands at 460,000 CASES in the United States.

Italy’s death rate was greater than 20% for the past 2 days.  The US death rate was up to its highest level of 3.6%.

Beasho

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TallDude

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #110 on: April 01, 2020, 05:03:40 PM »
Thanks again Beasho. I look forward (with one eye open) to your daily reports. The most trusted source.
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Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #111 on: April 02, 2020, 07:00:06 AM »
I have been screaming about CoMorbidity since I saw the statistics 3 weeks ago out of China then confirmed by Bloomberg in Italy and the data from Imperial College.  All 100% aligned on the risk to PRIOR HEALTH CONDITIONS.

Then on Sunday 60 Minutes was reporting and the doctor said "We see a high correlation with Obesity."  BMI > than 40 is listed as Morbid Obesity.  And there it was the word again.

Reuters just published this article on the higher death rates in Louisiana "We're just sicker."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-new-orleans/why-is-new-orleans-coronavirus-death-rate-seven-times-new-yorks-obesity-is-a-factor-idUSKBN21K1B0
« Last Edit: April 02, 2020, 07:04:10 AM by Beasho »

ninja tuna

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #112 on: April 02, 2020, 08:03:50 AM »
I have read an article or two about Italy having a higher death rate. Now I am trying to paraphrase one or 2 of a ton of articles I have read so I may be screwing this up a little. But it was discussed that Italy also had a good health care system that has allowed an older population thus making them more fragile. The articles basically said Italy just had a lot of old people and these old people may have been died of other things attributed to C19 or C19 was just the straw that broke the camels back.

Great updates Beasho.

robon

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #113 on: April 02, 2020, 08:20:59 AM »
I have read an article or two about Italy having a higher death rate. Now I am trying to paraphrase one or 2 of a ton of articles I have read so I may be screwing this up a little. But it was discussed that Italy also had a good health care system that has allowed an older population thus making them more fragile. The articles basically said Italy just had a lot of old people and these old people may have been died of other things attributed to C19 or C19 was just the straw that broke the camels back.

Great updates Beasho.

It’s all interesting data. There are many variables to consider, with social economic status-social determinants of health, population density, and culture being several, along with response from governments.  Some countries such as Italy may have multiple generations living together and many adult Italians, a third or more, live with their parents. So, elderly people are more at risk of exposure in a country such as Italy, where it’s much more common culturally for the elderly to be at home with their families and interspersed in the general public day to day, as compared to North America. Throw in population density factors, in a very small country and it’s a recipe for disaster.

I’m a former EMT and now a social worker, so it’s pretty interesting to me to see these variables and issues being brought to forefront.

« Last Edit: April 02, 2020, 08:31:30 AM by robon »

Thatspec

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #114 on: April 02, 2020, 08:25:16 AM »
It would be interesting to see how many of the comorbidity C19 deaths would have occurred anyway from other causes in 2020 (based on prior years data). The fear mongers want us to believe it's 1918, the naysayers the opposite. As is always the case, the truth will be somewhere in the middle ::)

SUP Leave

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #115 on: April 02, 2020, 08:38:11 AM »
I have seen a couple of graphs showing year over year United States total death rates by month. I can't find it now though.

We are currently falling through the floor on our national death rate. No one is allowed to live and so no one is dying (car crashes, general accidents, etc). So we are doing a good job of saving unhealthy people from CV-19.
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Thatspec

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #116 on: April 02, 2020, 09:01:11 AM »
Interesting Economist article from yesterday quoting another Imperial College of London study.

As we all knew but nice to see it studied, kinda drops the death rate a bit. Basically they're saying there are a minimum of 21x the number of confirmed cases currently active.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/01/covid-19-may-be-far-more-prevalent-than-previously-thought
You'd have to subscribe so posted the important paragraph below.

"The results suggest the virus is far more prevalent than official case counts would suggest. Across the 11 European countries studied, official government statistics indicate that there are 319,500 confirmed cases, affecting less than 0.1% of the population. The Imperial researchers peg the more likely figure at 18.5m cases (with a confidence interval of between 7m and 43m), which suggests that, as of March 28th, 5% of the population in these countries have contracted the virus.

This high infection rate is partly because of the highly contagious nature of the virus. The epidemiologists estimated the “basic reproduction number” of covid-19 to be 3.9, meaning that in a population where no one is immune, and no precautions are taken to control the outbreak, each infected individual passes on the virus to nearly four other people. By implementing “non-pharmaceutical interventions”—such as school closures, the banning of public events and nationwide lockdowns—governments have successfully reduced this reproduction number. Once it drops below one, the number of new infections starts to fall.

The researchers estimate that timely interventions over the past month have reduced the reproduction number of the virus across the 11 countries studied by two-thirds to 1.4, thus saving between 21,000 and 120,000 lives. In Italy, alone, interventions have prevented some 38,000 deaths, according to the researchers. The past few weeks have been tough for those hit by the crisis. They can take some solace in knowing that it could have been much worse."

Dwight (DW)

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #117 on: April 02, 2020, 09:37:25 AM »
Obesity usually means high blood pressure, with so many people taking drugs for that, and one of those drugs acting like it super charges the virus.....

It sure would be nice to know if all those deaths claiming no health issues, were actually taking BP meds.


LaPerouseBay

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Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #119 on: April 02, 2020, 12:56:53 PM »
It would be interesting to see how many of the comorbidity C19 deaths would have occurred anyway from other causes in 2020 (based on prior years data). The fear mongers want us to believe it's 1918, the naysayers the opposite. As is always the case, the truth will be somewhere in the middle ::)

Here is that View.  2017 Death Data for the United States. 

I am estimating 82,000 deaths from Corona and how that would look if SLID into the profile from ~2 years ago.  This model assumes

--> NO NET INCREASE IN DEATH

In other words Corona just takes the place of the other CoMorbidities for the Year.