Author Topic: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily  (Read 24752 times)

LaPerouseBay

  • Teahupoo Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 1893
  • downwind dilettante
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #45 on: March 22, 2020, 12:10:47 PM »
Thanks for the update admin.  Info from the front lines is invaluable.  I revisited this forum because of your familial connections.   

More from Dr. Jha.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/22/819725459/why-testing-can-slow-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus

Beasho, I'm curious why you never include a disclaimer with your charts - (the of lack of testing).
 
I've been following a youtube channel (for about a month) that has similar charts.  The data is all the same feed.  He's a PhD and always includes the caveat that the data is somewhat speculative due to lack of testing and political shenanigans.
 
He does a daily video report with a voice over, highlighting and explaining areas of the charts and graphs.
 
His predictions have been spot on.  When he started, all columns except China were in single digits. As he predicted, they inexorably marched into 2,3,4,5 and soon to be six digits.
 
But he always mentions the lack of testing on his data.  All the experts do.

I'm never sure what it is you are trying to forecast, if anything.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 12:46:58 PM by LaPerouseBay »
Support your local shaper

LaPerouseBay

  • Teahupoo Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 1893
  • downwind dilettante
    • View Profile
    • Email
Support your local shaper

Quickbeam

  • Teahupoo Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 1086
    • View Profile
Infinity Blackfish 12’ 6” x 23”
ONE SUP Evo 12’ 6” x 24”
Infinity Whiplash 12' 6" x 24 1/2"
ONE SUP Evo 12’ 6” x 26”
Bark Competitor 12’ 6” x 29”
Red Paddle Explorer (Inflatable) 13' 2" x 30
Red Paddle Race (Inflatable) 12’ 6” x 30”

PonoBill

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 23762
    • View Profile
Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #48 on: March 23, 2020, 07:51:42 AM »
Only scary if you presume the federal government is incapable of responding competently. Oh. Wait...
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

PonoBill

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 23762
    • View Profile
Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #49 on: March 23, 2020, 08:15:43 AM »
The importance of not overwhelming critical care is obvious. Even in the healthiest, most resistant age groups the percentage of people requiring hospitalization is 5 percent or more. I think Italy's necessary triage is responsible for the much higher death rate. It seems completely obvious, especially since that's what their doctors are saying.
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

TallDude

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 5367
  • Capistrano Beach
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #50 on: March 23, 2020, 09:56:07 AM »
My wife worked yesterday at the hospital. She a critical care nurse. This is a large trama hospital with three towers. The older single story wing of the hospital (which was the original hospital) has an old ICU and rooms in that are now used for out patient treatments. My wife said, "Good thing the hospital kept their license active for that old ICU" just in the event of a mass casualty. They have a few COVID-19 patients in ICU now. All potential COVID-19 patients are screened and directed to that part of the hospital. Regulations are being removed to a certain extent, and are a big part of the hold-up in getting supplies. The construction industry uses millions of N95 respirators. They are sold at all the construction supply warehouses. They are the same 3M N95 respirators /masks that the medical industry uses, except for the label that states "for medical use" which allows to charge a fortune for them. I know there is a liability that 3M bares in producing them for medical use. Trump mentioned in one of his public briefs that "they are working with 3M to waive the liability so they can produce more masks". I found that an interesting comment. An N95 respirator is and N95 respirator whether it's going to the hospital or Home Depot. I'm sure there are those who are still pumping the breaks so to speak, hanging on to their regulations.   
 
« Last Edit: March 23, 2020, 10:17:20 AM by TallDude »
It's not overhead to me!
8'8" L-41 ST and a whole pile of boards I rarely use.

Phils

  • Rincon Status
  • ***
  • Posts: 198
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #51 on: March 23, 2020, 10:51:58 AM »
US is not Italy.   Our critical care capacity is much higher on a populations basis.  We will also save a lot of lives from flu deaths due to all the "social isolation" measures in place.  We have to balance all this against the economic devastation current policies are creating......economic devastation also costs lives....maybe many many more over time than COVID will.


And how will the economic devastation cost more lives then this pandemic?  Are we not already sufficiently rich to deal with a flatter economic world?  Would we rather reset the social/economic system, or cull the weak out of it?

Think about it a bit more deeply.  Read history.  See what life expectancy was 200 years ago, 100 years ago, 50 years ago.  Ask yourself how humans increased life expectancy so dramatically.  Think about all the future advances in cancer treatment, infectious disease treatment, management of global warming,  perinatal treatment, etc ,etc ,etc for the next many many years that will not occur if there is a no way to pay for it. Do you think this is the last pandemic that will occur?  How many lives will be lost to the next pandemic if the wealth of nations is completely destroyed?   Do you know anyone who was treated medically for a condition that was lethal 50 years ago but cured today?   How do you think that treatment was developed?  I am not against social isolation that is currently advocated but at some point, we cannot stop so much productive  human activity on this planet and not pay a massive price for it.  My point has to be considered.  At some point we need a more balanced approach.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2020, 10:56:41 AM by Phils »

SUP Leave

  • Sunset Status
  • ****
  • Posts: 498
    • View Profile
Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #52 on: March 23, 2020, 11:52:41 AM »
Beasho - I want to thank you for the time you have put into these charts. If I am ever in your area, I want to buy you a drink. I am a numbers junkie and can never get a good picture from the news reports as they seek to sensationalize as most people cannot read or understand charts. DATA is DATA. Anecdotal evidence has an emotional punch to it, but data is still just data.

This week is supposed to be the big one, where we see the largest exponential growth. I believe that American ingenuity has exponential growth as well, and am pretty sure we will have a stockpile in N95 masks by this weekend. 3M is not going to miss an opportunity for a windfall. Testing is ramping up quickly which will increase the number of cases as we will get many more of the asymptomatic cases identified. I would guess the death rate will decrease.

CDC has not changed their recommendations at all, but indicators are on Sunday we will have the next steps for quarantine. My hope is that it further restricts hot spots (city or county wide) and opens up areas where there is capacity for it. Mostly I want it to put pressure on local governments to look at the problem from both sides and have data driven plans, not politically driven plans.



Make paddleboarding great again!

TallDude

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 5367
  • Capistrano Beach
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #53 on: March 23, 2020, 02:08:04 PM »
Beasho - I want to thank you for the time you have put into these charts. If I am ever in your area, I want to buy you a drink.

Mostly I want it to put pressure on local governments to look at the problem from both sides and have data driven plans, not politically driven plans.

I Second that. Thanks Beasho....

And SUP Leave, you're dream'n a little. No matter how much Black and White numbers you have, politic's will spin it into pure grey. 
It's not overhead to me!
8'8" L-41 ST and a whole pile of boards I rarely use.

SUP Leave

  • Sunset Status
  • ****
  • Posts: 498
    • View Profile
Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #54 on: March 23, 2020, 02:44:52 PM »
^^ sadly I concur^^

I guess as a politician it is pretty hard to say "We are willing to start with 50k deaths and reverse engineer our response from there." Which is a likely scenario... but hard to say out loud. I am looking forward to hearing the criteria for success against CV19.

New York death rate dropped to less than 1% today it appears. Likely due to more testing, and more testing will continually decrease the death rate at least for a while. Then it should increase, while new cases decrease?
Make paddleboarding great again!

surfinJ

  • Teahupoo Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 1769
    • View Profile
Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #55 on: March 24, 2020, 02:26:37 AM »
US is not Italy.   Our critical care capacity is much higher on a populations basis.  We will also save a lot of lives from flu deaths due to all the "social isolation" measures in place.  We have to balance all this against the economic devastation current policies are creating......economic devastation also costs lives....maybe many many more over time than COVID will.


And how will the economic devastation cost more lives then this pandemic?  Are we not already sufficiently rich to deal with a flatter economic world?  Would we rather reset the social/economic system, or cull the weak out of it?

Think about it a bit more deeply.  Read history.  See what life expectancy was 200 years ago, 100 years ago, 50 years ago.  Ask yourself how humans increased life expectancy so dramatically.  Think about all the future advances in cancer treatment, infectious disease treatment, management of global warming,  perinatal treatment, etc ,etc ,etc for the next many many years that will not occur if there is a no way to pay for it. Do you think this is the last pandemic that will occur?  How many lives will be lost to the next pandemic if the wealth of nations is completely destroyed?   Do you know anyone who was treated medically for a condition that was lethal 50 years ago but cured today?   How do you think that treatment was developed?  I am not against social isolation that is currently advocated but at some point, we cannot stop so much productive  human activity on this planet and not pay a massive price for it.  My point has to be considered.  At some point we need a more balanced approach.

I agree with you.  This event is going to change the course of history. I have a daughter that after listening to me did the years of hard work in school and was about
to start work in a unique engineering position, durable materials for water sports products.  She was to start yesterday, and now???

My old industry, the airlines was being devastated before the drastique measures to effect.  I have many friends whose career is now over or majorly curtailed.

But to try the experiment of herd immunity in a country like Sweden with a modern and robots healthcare sysatem is very risky.  To follow this path in the US will be a
nightmare.  The condition of healthcare was at the outset inadequate.

Sadly the coming year will carry all sorts of pain. And picking it up and getting going again after will not be easy.  But humans are if anything resilient.

Fishman

  • Sunset Status
  • ****
  • Posts: 407
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #56 on: March 24, 2020, 07:22:17 AM »
Has anyone seen any data sources showing logarithmic scale charts, or "rate of doubling", instead of linear charts? 
SupSurfMachine 9'9" longboard
SupSurfMachine  8'2" funboard

LaPerouseBay

  • Teahupoo Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 1893
  • downwind dilettante
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #57 on: March 24, 2020, 11:44:21 AM »
^Fishman: I follow a site that graphs it. but I won't link it here due to the highly opinionated overall theme.  If the line is what he claims, (?) it's as straight as a string. 



I’ve got a few days to go before I’ll be back to normal yet, I think. It was what if think of as a “moderate” level of incapacity. I had a couple of days of pneumonia in the middle when coughing up loads of thick green mucus which wasn’t great, but then back to the dry cough. Loads of other secondary symptoms too, sinus headaches, mouth ulcers, conjunctivitis etc. But I’ve felt worse with the flu before and my family seem to only get a very mild illness.

A friend of mine runs a biotech company and thinks that people will most likely have immunity for 6-12 months. Which might mean there will be another big outbreak in December(ish). But bear in mind that there are already different strains of this thing.  By next winter there will probably be many more. So it will all depend on how quickly and successfully vaccines can be made and distributed.

There’s been a bit of an “anti-science” or “anti-expert” vibe in British politics for a few years now. A growing trend. Well, that has certainly turned around now that life-and-death decisions have to be made based on information from people who actually know what they are talking about. So maybe some good will come of this.

Glad to hear you are on the mend.  Your biotech friend probably informed you of this already.  I thought I'd pass this on to the forum.  It has a phone app that may be interesting in the following days and weeks...   

https://youtu.be/q4P91VrfPGw
Support your local shaper

Bean

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 4096
    • View Profile
Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #58 on: March 25, 2020, 12:10:52 PM »
Thanks for that update on Immunity - very positive message indeed.

PonoBill

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 23762
    • View Profile
Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #59 on: March 25, 2020, 01:55:29 PM »
Useful video LaPerouse. I've been researching to topic of immunity, trying to understand the mechanisms better. Like so many things it's not as well understood as we might hope. the base mechanisms are fairly clear, but the control system, not so much. Given the substantial difference in outcome for infection even within a specific and similar cohort it seems likely that some people already have a substantial immunity. or at least a head start in acquiring one. We should have better tests in a few months to determine the immunity level and type. That will go a long way toward rationalizing the response. We can't all stay in our homes forever.
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

 


* Recent Posts

post New F One Swing?
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
winged surfer
September 19, 2020, 11:46:16 PM
post Re: Torx bolts??? I want to understand, why do you like them?
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
steamroller
September 19, 2020, 09:38:32 PM
post Re: GONG 7M Wings ($450 & $650)
[Classifieds]
SanoSlatchSup
September 19, 2020, 09:06:22 PM
post Re: Foil recommendations
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
clay
September 19, 2020, 08:11:17 PM
post Re: Finding slow leaks in your wing
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
clay
September 19, 2020, 07:51:15 PM
post Re: Foil Pump simulator
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
surfcowboy
September 19, 2020, 07:42:26 PM
post Re: The Concept of "Run"..i.e., Distance per Stroke
[Technique]
burchas
September 19, 2020, 07:39:50 PM
post Re: E foil
[Foil SUP]
surfcowboy
September 19, 2020, 07:36:47 PM
post Re: Day 6?
[Sessions]
surfercook
September 19, 2020, 07:03:01 PM
post Re: 3rd Date with Paulette - relaxing and fun
[SUP General]
surfercook
September 19, 2020, 06:46:28 PM
post Re: Anything out there similar to the Hammer?
[Gear Talk]
miker
September 19, 2020, 05:05:52 PM
post Re: Torx bolts??? I want to understand, why do you like them?
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
PonoBill
September 19, 2020, 04:13:52 PM
post Re: Wing Foil Videos
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
deja vu
September 19, 2020, 04:10:35 PM
post Re: Foil recommendations
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
deja vu
September 19, 2020, 04:04:05 PM
post Re: Finding slow leaks in your wing
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
PonoBill
September 19, 2020, 03:57:39 PM

* Recent Topics

topic New F One Swing?
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
winged surfer
September 19, 2020, 11:46:16 PM
topic Torx bolts??? I want to understand, why do you like them?
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
steamroller
September 19, 2020, 09:38:32 PM
topic GONG 7M Wings ($450 & $650)
[Classifieds]
SanoSlatchSup
September 19, 2020, 09:06:22 PM
topic Foil recommendations
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
clay
September 19, 2020, 08:11:17 PM
topic Finding slow leaks in your wing
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
clay
September 19, 2020, 07:51:15 PM
topic Foil Pump simulator
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
surfcowboy
September 19, 2020, 07:42:26 PM
topic The Concept of "Run"..i.e., Distance per Stroke
[Technique]
burchas
September 19, 2020, 07:39:50 PM
topic E foil
[Foil SUP]
surfcowboy
September 19, 2020, 07:36:47 PM
topic Day 6?
[Sessions]
surfercook
September 19, 2020, 07:03:01 PM
topic 3rd Date with Paulette - relaxing and fun
[SUP General]
surfercook
September 19, 2020, 06:46:28 PM
topic Anything out there similar to the Hammer?
[Gear Talk]
miker
September 19, 2020, 05:05:52 PM
topic Wing Foil Videos
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
deja vu
September 19, 2020, 04:10:35 PM
topic Tether for helping beginners stay upwind
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
clay
September 19, 2020, 01:25:38 PM
topic 2021 Starboard Pro line-up is out
[Gear Talk]
LoudounSUP
September 19, 2020, 01:09:56 PM
topic Wingfoil Videos
[Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP]
clay
September 19, 2020, 01:04:08 PM
SimplePortal 2.3.7 © 2008-2020, SimplePortal