Author Topic: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily  (Read 19500 times)

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #75 on: March 27, 2020, 10:56:22 AM »
But it is still just a guess, huh. First teen died here today. Kids as young as 10 on respirators.

Reporting 1 DEATH among 16,108 deaths in EUROPE among 285,833 CASES in Europe is a form of SENSATIONALISM and TERRORIZING the public. 

EVERY data source has suggested Co-Morbidity accounts for 90%++++ of the deaths.  If this were the FLU with a Mortality rate of 0.1% as applied to 285K POSITIVE CASES there would be 285 people dead.  There are probably 100X to 200X this number dead from the FLU this season in Europe.  Assuming Ages 1 - 20 represent 20% of the population would result in 57 people dead from a COMMON FLU INFECTION among 'Teens'.

Corona Virus fatality among teens is a RED HERRING to sell media space.

See the following Statistics for EUROPE

Quote from the Article here:
"The teen is the youngest known to have died in Europe from the devastating spread of the novel coronavirus, according to the Evening Standard."

Link: https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/french-teen-is-youngest-known-to-die-from-coronavirus-in-europe/

« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 11:19:12 AM by Beasho »

surfinJ

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #76 on: March 27, 2020, 12:31:11 PM »
I am sorry for terrorizing you. She was healthy, no known weakness.  This the contrary story to what is being told. 

You want me to post all the data I see here?  You want to hear all the numbers?

Are you than not terrorized?

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #77 on: March 27, 2020, 01:15:53 PM »
No need to hear the data.  I have been providing this link with all the details for the past week and a half.

This is the World Health Organization data taken from table form and converted into Graphics.  525,00 Worldwide cases.  With the US topping the list for CASES.  The US is 6th on the list for deaths:

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzExYmM2ZWQtZWVmMS00OTI1LWE1NzYtMTU2OTk3ZGE4ZjMyIiwidCI6IjQzODE2ODE2LTY0OTYtNDU4My1iMmVmLWU5Y2U3MTg1NjI4MCIsImMiOjF9

Thatspec

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #78 on: March 27, 2020, 01:22:17 PM »
The most likely scenario, this 16 year old did in fact have one or more unknown contributing factors BECAUSE she died as a result of catching covid-19. We have enough information to say that with some certainty given the available data. I wouldn't even open an article from the NYpost.
Yes I have way too much time on my hands...
Beasho, thanks for taking the time to compile all of this!
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 01:26:10 PM by Thatspec »

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #79 on: March 27, 2020, 01:34:06 PM »
Here is a PDF output of the link from above.  I am testing to see if it attaches to the ZONE post.

LaPerouseBay

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« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 02:14:18 PM by LaPerouseBay »
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TallDude

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #81 on: March 27, 2020, 06:51:44 PM »
Bears some resemblance:)  Our South Orange County beaches are still open but no State Park or Harbor parking. We are all going a little stir crazy.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 06:54:48 PM by TallDude »
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TallDude

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #82 on: March 27, 2020, 07:03:22 PM »
It definitely seems like areas where everyone relies on public transit, subways and trains are the hardest hit. Not to mention tall enclosed buildings with common elevators or even stairs as the only access. We don't have sidewalks through most of our neighborhood. We just walk out in the street. Urban sprawl. There are almost no cars. It's easy to stay clear of anyone and yet walk for miles, as long as I don't walk down the hill to the beach. That's a different story. Everyone in Los Angeles feels a need to drive to the beach.
It's not overhead to me!
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PonoBill

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #83 on: March 28, 2020, 08:32:27 AM »
What also matters is how draconian the separation and quarantine actions are, and how the population reacts. There are countless videos on how the Chinese reacted--roadblocks, arresting people (I wonder what the heck they do with them), locking people into their houses. In India the police beat the shit out of violaters. I can't see the USA doing much of that.

I read a lot of media, including extreme stuff on both ends of the USA political spectrum. I don't recommend that to anyone who wants to retain a respect for humanity--both ends are disgusting. I'm watching the drumbeat to discredit Dr. Fauci on the far right. It's a weird thing to see, it feels like the kind of shit the soviets used to do when someone in the power structure didn't behave. I don't even begin to understand the American public.
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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #84 on: March 28, 2020, 08:46:09 AM »
I was listening to Andrew Cuomo who refused to be baited into politics.  He kept pulling it back to the numbers that he is working with.  One issue which he kept returning to is how long patients are staying on ventilators.  Weeks is the norm.  1 to 2 weeks being most common but he mentioned 3 weeks becoming regular.  This is the sickest group and many of these people eventually dying.  This cumulative effect is what overwhelms the hospitals and why the death rates can soar even after the increase in case number has begun to decrease.  He said that his data is indicating 140,000 hospitalized in NY alone peaking in 2-3 weeks (currently at 5300).  Those are shocking #'s even in a time of shocking #'s.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 12:20:42 PM by Admin »

Hail SUPin

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #85 on: March 28, 2020, 09:11:02 AM »
I read a lot of media, including extreme stuff on both ends of the USA political spectrum. I don't recommend that to anyone who wants to retain a respect for humanity--both ends are disgusting. I'm watching the drumbeat to discredit Dr. Fauci on the far right. It's a weird thing to see, it feels like the kind of shit the soviets used to do when someone in the power structure didn't behave. I don't even begin to understand the American public.

I had a conversation with a coworker last night who thinks the media is making the virus sound much worse than it is to make Trump look bad. WTF?! I didnít know the media had so many resources. The ability for the media to completely disrupt the global economy, continue to allow the virus to spread from country to country, and allow the death toll to keep climbing all in an attempt to make one man look bad is preposterous.

I find it disturbing people dismiss the amount of deaths in the US. If a terrorist attack claimed this many lives the armed forces recruiting office would be overrun with people ready to go to war. Itís sad we have thousands of people dying everyday and people still canít take off their political goggles and react with some compassion and rational behavior.


surfcowboy

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #87 on: March 28, 2020, 09:50:33 AM »
First, thanks Beasho. This is pretty solid and although Iím not the best numbers wonk, I have a pretty solid track record with trend analysis in my biz and I agree with your peak date estimate. (I picked it for later next week but the average will win, which I didnít take into account.)

2 thoughts. The data sources would need an insane amount of collusion between completely disparate agencies to pull off faking these numbers.

Second, I work in ďThe MťdiaĒ and while there is bias, itís mostly like your jobs. A bunch of people trying to pull shit off with mixed results. As a business owner I canít even get my team to turn in timesheets half the time, let alone pull off a global scam. The bias that exists is normally a few producers or writers and they get to do just enough to not get fired and in true journalism (make your own call as to what constitutes that) if you canít make up a convincing fairy tale to back you stuff, you get to go home.

SUP Leave

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #88 on: March 28, 2020, 10:38:25 AM »
First, thanks Beasho. This is pretty solid and although Iím not the best numbers wonk, I have a pretty solid track record with trend analysis in my biz and I agree with your peak date estimate. (I picked it for later next week but the average will win, which I didnít take into account.)

2 thoughts. The data sources would need an insane amount of collusion between completely disparate agencies to pull off faking these numbers.

Second, I work in ďThe MťdiaĒ and while there is bias, itís mostly like your jobs. A bunch of people trying to pull shit off with mixed results. As a business owner I canít even get my team to turn in timesheets half the time, let alone pull off a global scam. The bias that exists is normally a few producers or writers and they get to do just enough to not get fired and in true journalism (make your own call as to what constitutes that) if you canít make up a convincing fairy tale to back you stuff, you get to go home.

Great post.  Conspiracy theories are a reflection on the person spouting the theory. For any of these vast conspiracies to work would require extremely talented leadership and smart, hard - working people. If you spend any time in the real world you realize that media is just another job. Bias sells right now but luckily we can still find the real numbers and break them down for ourselves.

Human nature never changes. Internet personas and virtue signaling look much different in real life daylight. 
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Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #89 on: March 28, 2020, 11:27:33 AM »
Positive Thoughts are Tough to find hunting through the data but THE UNITED STATES IS NOT ITALY (This is what I have for Today).

IF the UNITED STATES were ITALY we would have ~ 49,411 DEAD.  The US has 1,700 dead or 30X lower.
The Deaths per 100K in ITALY is JUST BELOW the Number of People that DIED from INFLUENZA in the UNITED STATES 2 years ago. 

PLEASE INTERNALIZE THIS.  2 Years ago 17.1 People Died per 100K of the FLU in the US.

The CUMULATIVE death rate in the US stays low at 1.6%.  Latest Death Rate 2.2% from yesterday. 

Bad News:  The United States is Winning with more Cases in the US than any other Country.  Expect to see 300,000 CASES in the US within the next 7 days.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 11:30:28 AM by Beasho »