Author Topic: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily  (Read 22717 times)

PonoBill

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #30 on: March 21, 2020, 09:49:42 AM »
We should see a false peak in about a week as the effects of social distancing and other measures take place. More testing of the general public means a lot more cases, but we should see a decline in the number of people hospitalized. Of course as soon as people relax their efforts the infections and then the hospitalization should trend up again. We'll see.

The most distressing thing is that the virus is so evenly distributed in the USA. The lack of effective measures early on to slow the spread (Nero fiddled while COVID burned) means there's no way to apply more extreme measures to deal with hot spots. From a herd immunity standpoint, this is just fine. Absent a tested and effective vaccine, acquired immunity is what will stop the infection. From a personal (vs. herd) perspective this is criminally disastrous. The current pattern and progression mean the curve isn't going to be as flat as it easily could have been.
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Chan

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #31 on: March 21, 2020, 10:44:59 AM »
I'm sure many of you have already seen this one.  It's the most comprehensive current statistical and prognostic study I've read.  This is the report cited for many of the recent policy shifts in the US and Europe. 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #32 on: March 21, 2020, 03:11:53 PM »
I'm sure many of you have already seen this one.  It's the most comprehensive current statistical and prognostic study I've read.  This is the report cited for many of the recent policy shifts in the US and Europe. 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

That Imperial College report was what pushed me over edge.  I now YELL FROM THE SOAP BOX. 

COVID-19 DOES NOT KILL RANDOMLY.  IT KILLS PEOPLE WITH PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS.

Every report, or death, or supposed exception reinforces this finding.  1 in 99 people appear to be 'random' the other 99 had some pre-existing condition.

This latest NY Times has somebody that finally suggest - Corona may just be front-running what was going to kill them soon.

"Two-thirds of those who died in Italy had pre-existing medical conditions and were also elderly; Dr. David L. Katz, the former director of the Prevention Research Center at Yale University, notes that many might have died soon of other causes even if the coronavirus had not struck.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-outcomes.html

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #33 on: March 21, 2020, 03:14:41 PM »
This got me wondering again "How different is COVID-19 from a normal Flu?"  Then I found this information about the greatest number of deaths in the United States potentially since the Spanish Flu in 1918.

80,000 People died in 2018 - 2 Years Ago!!!!!

Really!!!!!!  Read the description of who was impacted.  Sounds very similar.  But with 400X more dead than the data from Yesterday.

From January 8th, 2018:
"Combine with that the fact that people over 50 — and especially people in their 70s, 80s, and beyond — are less healthy and have less robust immune systems. They may have health conditions like diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or heart disease. They have a harder time shaking off an illness like the flu."

Source 1: https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/
Source 2: https://www.statnews.com/2018/01/08/flu-virus-h3n2/
« Last Edit: March 21, 2020, 03:18:24 PM by Beasho »

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #34 on: March 21, 2020, 03:23:37 PM »
Deaths in the USA stand at 150 in this report.  Maybe up to 250 by the end of today.

Assuming 200 --> 80,000 / 200 = 400 TIMES MORE DEATHS 2 Years Ago from the FLU. 

Any way you cut it this has a long way to go to get to 80,000.  The United States is CURRENTLY near ZERO on this Graph.

People like to say we have 2 weeks to catch up to ITALY.  BUT THE US RECORDED CASES IN THE UNITED STATES 10 DAYS BEFORE ITALY.

If as everyone assumes the United States is terrible at measuring then we have MANY MANY MANY more infections.  There is no way there are 1,000's + 1,000's of random people dying of pneumonia and NOT BEING COUNTED right now.

As measured by Deaths Per Running Day since FIRST MEASURED CASE:  Italy, Iran and China have been 15X to 25X more lethal than the United States.  That's 1500% to 2500% more deadly.  No ambiguity to the extreme difference. 
« Last Edit: March 21, 2020, 03:32:20 PM by Beasho »

surfinJ

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #35 on: March 22, 2020, 12:39:03 AM »
You are behind us in time.  The incubation period is the calm before the storm as we continue to complacent. Without adequate testing there are major flaws to this data display.

The fact is, the majority of the population is complacent.  While the small groups of panicked or those with healthy fear begin to hunker down the most are whistling Dixie.

Most of us will get it, and most of them will get it lightly.  The problem lies in the capacity of the healthcare system and the resilience of the doctors and nurses working there because they have been or are being overwhelmed where it has hit first.

With the six degrees of separation all of us have, it is not that far away.

Admin

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #36 on: March 22, 2020, 12:45:02 AM »
Here is an excerpt from an email that was circulated by a group of Boston Doctors.

Our Italian critical care colleagues have shared with us that they simply do not have enough resources (ventilators, physicians and nurses, critical care beds), and are forced to choose who lives and dies based on old tenets of wartime triage. Older patients do not even get a ventilator and die of their pneumonia. These are decisions nobody should have to face, and we are only 11 days behind Italy’s fate. Their hospitals are quite advanced, and we are no better in Boston. As doctors, we are desperately trying to prepare for the onslaught of patients in the coming weeks. It is already beginning.

This is the big worry.  That as the virus moves from initiation to acceleration that the hospitals will become overwhelmed.  The CDC updated their situation page yesterday and still have the US in the initiation phase https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/summary.html.  The acceleration phase is where the death rate would spike.  Lets hope that our last minute scramble for preparedness is enough to mitigate this.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 12:59:40 AM by Admin »

Phils

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #37 on: March 22, 2020, 05:08:44 AM »
US is not Italy.   Our critical care capacity is much higher on a populations basis.  We will also save a lot of lives from flu deaths due to all the "social isolation" measures in place.  We have to balance all this against the economic devastation current policies are creating......economic devastation also costs lives....maybe many many more over time than COVID will.

tarquin

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #38 on: March 22, 2020, 05:35:27 AM »
I hope for your sake and millions of other Americans you are right. By the looks of what's going on all over the world and the numbers I think it's not looking great.

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #39 on: March 22, 2020, 06:05:07 AM »
US is not Italy.   Our critical care capacity is much higher on a populations basis.  We will also save a lot of lives from flu deaths due to all the "social isolation" measures in place.  We have to balance all this against the economic devastation current policies are creating......economic devastation also costs lives....maybe many many more over time than COVID will.

Social isolation is really just starting.  Based on the numbers, we missed the window to avoid the first big spike in infections.  These infections have already happened.  Due to the long incubation period most of the infected are still non-symptomatic.  The real question would be how vigilant do we think the US was being 12 days ago.  The medical community is being vocal in saying that they do not believe they are prepared for the upcoming spike. 
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 06:11:34 AM by Admin »

surfinJ

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #40 on: March 22, 2020, 06:19:35 AM »
US is not Italy.   Our critical care capacity is much higher on a populations basis.  We will also save a lot of lives from flu deaths due to all the "social isolation" measures in place.  We have to balance all this against the economic devastation current policies are creating......economic devastation also costs lives....maybe many many more over time than COVID will.
I have just seen many pictures of public spaces in Florida and New Orleans. No social isolation going there.

And more critical care per population in the US than Italy?  Whatever level Italy has, the latest news shows it is way too little.

And how will the economic devastation cost more lives then this pandemic?  Are we not already sufficiently rich to deal with a flatter economic world?  Would we rather reset the social/economic system, or cull the weak out of it?

Admin

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #41 on: March 22, 2020, 11:46:50 AM »
I was just on the phone with my brother and my Dad.  Pretty crazy the state of things right now in the medical world.

One of the biggest problems they were having in Scott's seven hospitals was testing.  They were unable to test due to a lack of tests so medical personnel were treating people with the virus unknowingly (and unprotected) and by the old guidelines this meant they could no longer work.  This had lead to a huge shortage of staff.  That rule has now changed so that exposed medical staff can work provided that they wear masks. 

He started his group working on their own test last month which actually just got full CLIA approval yesterday.  They have dedicated two of their robots to test production so by tomorrow they should be up to 1000 people tested a day.  They have made that info available so other groups can do the same and produce and test internally without sending out to labs.  That had also been a huge delay.  Originally all of the tests needed to go to the CDC itself.  Then they relaxed that rule so tests could be sent out to local labs.  Now they can do it in house.  That will help a lot with availability and turnaround time.  He said that the tests are actually two parts.  The swab kits which can go out in the field and the lab test itself.  There is actually a huge shortage of both.  The swab kit had a transport agent which was in very short supply which was previously required.  They just yesterday got them to allow transport samples in saline which should make that part of the test available. 

They are also very short on Masks and ventilators.  My brother's hospitals are 3D printing masks to try to get ahead of what they see coming. 

« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 11:57:48 AM by Admin »

tarquin

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #42 on: March 22, 2020, 12:01:29 PM »
Same as France. Not enough test kits and serious lack of medical equipment. Now the hospitals are over run.
 The WHO have been warning countries for months that this was going to be bad and prepare your hospitals etc.
 South Korea started mass producing test kits back in December. They are looking pretty good at the moment.
 Looks like France and Spain will extend and make stricter rules for the confinement.

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #43 on: March 22, 2020, 12:07:54 PM »
Goods News Report for the United States.  Daily infection TOTAL cases EXPLODED in the ITALY, GERMANY and now the UNITED STATES beyond CHINA’s DAILY PEAKS.  That is BAD!  But the DEATH RATES in the United States are still ~25% of the death rates recorded in ITALY, IRAN, CHINA, SPAIN, and FRANCE.

Let’s hope that better Behavior, Proximity and Physiology keep the death rates LOW in this COUNTRY and others that have changed their approach.  Pray for INFLECTION.

The United States continues to stay WELL BEHIND ITALY in death toll.  But the infection rate has caught up.  New York has turned into its own HOT ZONE.  More on that later.   
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 12:10:23 PM by Beasho »

Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #44 on: March 22, 2020, 12:08:19 PM »
See this ranking of US States.  New York State should be on High Alert.  NY infections rates have pushed it beyond all but the top 5 most infected countries.  Distancing Behavior and Health Care both have to go into overdrive.
Death Rates are still a small fraction of ITALY.  ITALY’s death rate was 18X or 1800% higher than New York State as of 3/21/2020.

 


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