Author Topic: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily  (Read 22721 times)

Beasho

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COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« on: March 18, 2020, 01:15:35 PM »
I worked frantically over the weekend to get data and to get a perspective on this COVID-19 virus.

I shared some screen shots on Facebook and people appreciated the DATA.  My Microsoft Expert friends, Kellan and Rob at PowerPivotPro.com offered to host.

I will improve the views but if this helps anyone who wants to see the tail of the comet GREAT!  Feel free to Share. 

This is updated DAILY and is INTERACTIVE.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzExYmM2ZWQtZWVmMS00OTI1LWE1NzYtMTU2OTk3ZGE4ZjMyIiwidCI6IjQzODE2ODE2LTY0OTYtNDU4My1iMmVmLWU5Y2U3MTg1NjI4MCIsImMiOjF9&fbclid=IwAR2WFQVgpluQNy6vBDeaBMS98Njnl6Igb3HR1bvqxEPOESxdzuJOOGEGz7g

Will provide these views:
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 01:19:00 PM by Beasho »

Bulky

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #1 on: March 18, 2020, 02:16:46 PM »
Wow, very interesting.  Two questions:

1)  what do you make of the huge spike in China on 2/17?  Can that actually be accurate tracking of disease spread or was there some kind of reporting influx.  Hard to believe it would immediately drop to the previous day's territory.

2)  What do you make of the 3/17 spike in America?  that's a scary jump.

I'll certainly keep monitoring this.

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Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #2 on: March 18, 2020, 02:23:32 PM »
China spike was some sort of Data Collection phenomena aka they were playing catch up with data.

US Spike yesterday.  That's also a potential data delay.  The US data wasn't coming in for 2 days.  So next day may drop. T

his is WHO data that also tends to lag the Johns Hopkins reports.


SUP Leave

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #3 on: March 18, 2020, 02:42:27 PM »
These charts confuse me a lot when I compare to the reaction we are having here in the US.

I mean I am hearing estimates that NY state will get 750k cases even though they have pretty maximal control over everyone and China only got to 85k cases for 1.4bn people. Where is the correlation?

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Tom

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #4 on: March 18, 2020, 04:16:50 PM »
Is there any graph that takes population into account? China has a lot more people than Singapore, the number of deaths per population will graph different than per country

PonoBill

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #5 on: March 18, 2020, 06:42:04 PM »
Here's an interesting infection model simulation. One of the surprising elements is that social distancing works better than quarantine--or at least it does in the simulation. Neither quarantines on social distancing will eliminate the pandemic, but it buys time. And as any matrix calculation shows, time is most precious. Of course, the number of infections won't really decline and stay suppressed until there is enough immunity to slow the spread, and that won't happen for quite a while. The asymptomatic or sick but not tested rate is probably a factor of ten greater than the reported rates.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 07:19:52 PM by PonoBill »
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Bean

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #6 on: March 18, 2020, 07:32:54 PM »
That simulator really gets the point across. 

TallDude

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #7 on: March 18, 2020, 08:13:04 PM »
What's interesting is my teenage son is a gamer, so he's fine just isolating himself in his computer cave for weeks on end. All his buddies are gamer's, so he's having a great time. We just toss him some food now and then. My daughter who had to come home from college is just chomping at the bit to get out. I keep telling her sanitize her hands after she touches the door at Starbucks (take-out only) and please just stay home! We've set up a disinfecting protocol for when my nurse wife returns from the battlefield. The gate gets wiped, the door knobs, counters, etc. get wiped down. My homemade Purell is in bottles all over the house. I'm making some for all the cars too. I paddled about 5 miles yesterday, all by myself. It felt nice to get out on the ocean away from everything. 
It's not overhead to me!
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Fishman

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #8 on: March 18, 2020, 11:31:23 PM »
Today reports 475 CV 19 deaths in Italy in one day is a crazy change of pace. The above graph would look a lot different with this day included.  A number of news outlets are reporting this but I hope they just got the data wrong somehow.
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Quickbeam

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #9 on: March 18, 2020, 11:57:03 PM »
Today reports 475 CV 19 deaths in Italy in one day is a crazy change of pace. The above graph would look a lot different with this day included.  A number of news outlets are reporting this but I hope they just got the data wrong somehow.

I'm thinking the data is accurate. Here (https://apple.news/A7eyk1UMeR26Sccgv8OYAqg) is an interesting read as to what's going on in Italy. I think there is a shit storm happening and it's headed our way real soon.
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surfinJ

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #10 on: March 19, 2020, 12:28:15 AM »
Italy had almost 500 deaths yesterday and with about a five day lag in France we had 89. The eventual exponential increases are happening here.  Hopefully the quarantine will slow it a bit   

Deaths make the news and graphs of the virus seem scary. However with a 1-3% death rate the larger number of critical patients,
up 20% that will need resuscitation is very concerning. This is where the serious suffering amount the sick and the drama amongst the healthcare workers will come.

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2020, 07:38:08 AM »
The WAPost model is pretty good. It shows that full quarantine is less effective than social distancing. Obviously because as soon as the quarantine is lifted the virus spreads quickly.

UK, Norway, Sweden and maybe some others are using a quarantine of old and sick (vulnerable) people and social distancing for everyone else, without closing businesses etc. Will be really interesting to watch which models prove best. Let the virus spread through the younger populations to build herd immunity and keep the cases out of the hospitals which you save for the quarantined high risk individuals.

Then require folks who test positive to quarantine for 2 weeks. Americans will not stay put for 30 days, at some point the people in power need to consider human nature. The virus is here, there is no point in not letting the herd immunity grow among those who can handle it, especially at the detriment to the economy. The high risk class are largely retired anyway.
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PonoBill

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #12 on: March 19, 2020, 08:08:28 AM »
The point, of course, is to let acquired immunity grow without overwhelming medical facilities. That's the entire idea of flattening the curve. It's not to stop the infection, we don't have any tools available to do that. It's to be able to provide care to people who need it.
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Quickbeam

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #13 on: March 19, 2020, 08:53:44 AM »
On the question of immunity, my understanding is that we don’t yet know if we will build immunity to Covid 19??? I know it makes sense that we will, but our Provincial Medical Health Officer was asked this very question a couple of days ago, and her response was that it is too early too tell for certain.
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Beasho

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Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« Reply #14 on: March 19, 2020, 08:54:53 AM »
Here is a graphic I built last weekend. 

The Corona Virus does discriminate AGAINST THOSE WITH PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS.  I observed this on Saturday March 14th after running the numbers, jumped to my wife “My gosh I can see what the Corona Virus is doing.”  I tell my kids there is nothing that is 100% sure or 0%.  But then I saw a Corona report with 0% fatalities for kids age 0-9. This does NOT exist in nature.  I put together this view to show that COVID-19 was NOT likely attacking the OLD but rather attacking the accumulation of CoMorbities that older people acquire. 

Bloomberg just confirmed this hypothesis. 

Do the Venn Diagram in your head of people you know and DISTANCE YOURSELF.  People will DIE.

99% of Fatalities had 1, 2 or 3 Pre-Existing conditions:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 08:57:51 AM by Beasho »

 


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