Author Topic: Caronavirus - business implications  (Read 2559 times)

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Re: Caronavirus - business implications
« Reply #15 on: March 19, 2020, 09:20:36 AM »
I don't think it's immoral at all. I think the financial ruin will likely kill more in the long run than the disease itself does. And the pain of it will be far more widespread. I only mentioned that the financial concern is secondary to me personally right now because if we don't effectively flatten the curve and I get this at the wrong time I might not be here 6 months from now. We're also fortunate that we have no debt whatsoever.

It's likely that we may have to help my youngest daughter financially in the near future. Something that never would have happened under normal circumstances....they just bought a big new house. They need their two incomes. My daughter is in marketing/event planning and I can see her being out of a job shortly.

That wasn't directed at you Stoney.  I hadn't picked that up in your comment at all.  It was mostly self justification for the post.  I feel a a pang of guilt considering the financial side of this with the real pain and concern that this is causing and another pang from my being riveted to it. 

It strikes me that this happened at a uniquely bad time.  The original (prolonged) message from the top that we need not be concerned followed by a possibly equally damaging digital/social/emotional/pressure inspired over-response.  I don't say that to be backwards thinking or political.  It is clear that the administration is taking this seriously now.  Our response is forming and reforming as we discuss this.  I don't think the Twitter response make sense.  The best course of action seems like it will be a lot more nuanced than the the extremes that we are being bent by. 

I do think that everyone should be urging the high risk groups (existing relevant conditions) to self-isolate and the govt and community focus should be on supporting that choice.  That group is at very high risk.  It may make more sense to have the rest of us exercising very heightened precautions but maintaining activity, work, travel, education and life.  There are a lot of fingers to this but it is currently seeming like a case of first too little, then too much.

« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 09:22:40 AM by Admin »

stoneaxe

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Re: Caronavirus - business implications
« Reply #16 on: March 19, 2020, 11:17:36 PM »
I think we'll likely waiver back and forth a bit. This is going to need adjusting as we understand more. Testing will hopefully let us focus on where quarantine is needed. The near term is going to be rocky though. I think you're right...and I'd be happy to remain self isolated if it allowed us to both slow the disease enough and not kill the economy.
Big problem is that we have people of all ages not self isolating now. I ranted on FB today on a local page about something my son-in-law told me. He manages a hugely popular liquor store here in town. All day long he has old folks coming in for lottery tickets. One came in to bring some cans back for a 60 cent redemption. And it's not turning out to be so age centric hear in the states supposedly. Anyone with underlying conditions is in danger from this. I'm screwed with my mix of them.
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Re: Caronavirus - business implications
« Reply #17 on: March 20, 2020, 02:42:18 AM »
We have been thinking about you Stoney.  This has to be more than a little worrisome.

We have amazing National and World disease resources staffed by a community that lives this stuff.  You would think that we would follow their suggestions but we seem to be oscilating above and below them.  Here are the guidelines from the NIH, CDC and WHO. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/index.html

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/03/19/to-beat-covid-19-social-distancing-is-a-must/



deepmud

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Re: Caronavirus - business implications
« Reply #18 on: March 20, 2020, 03:12:20 AM »
the wife has RA - another immune disease and her meds are an infusion every 6 months (at startling cost)  - there's no "stop your meds for awhile and deal with the symptoms" - and she's terrified she's going to die. It's the unknowns. Will we get it? Do we have it now? Is it all over the place? No tests, no sure plans for testing, no sure plans for how to prepare, no indication that the "herd" is doing what it needs to do except buy out the stores like Y2K finally hit (maybe it has). We already wash frequently, wipe down shopping carts, reduce exposure-  "just the flu" is plenty risky. The hard truth is we can't shut down the world too much longer - farmers HAVE to plant soon. Fuel has to get to the tractors. Food HAS to be distributed. This is especially clear in Alaska - the state absolutely depends on food/good shipped up. We get 3 large container ships a week - our stores tend to have 3 days of good on the shelves. Some stuff in warehouses - but food? They try to buy just what they need, as they need it. It won't take much disruption to have a truly scary stuff happen.

Bean

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Re: Caronavirus - business implications
« Reply #19 on: March 20, 2020, 04:52:19 AM »
Deep, has your wife’s doctor discussed the possibility of using low-dose Naltrexone?

PonoBill

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Re: Caronavirus - business implications
« Reply #20 on: March 20, 2020, 12:22:21 PM »
I looked up LDN, that's pretty interesting. I'd never heard of that treatment protocol before.
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deepmud

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Re: Caronavirus - business implications
« Reply #21 on: March 20, 2020, 03:58:50 PM »
No - and I thought I knew about all there was about RA :D She's be diagnose about 15 years now. Looking into it......

SIde note - about 10 years ago, went shopping for stove - chatting with the sales guy - older/60's, nice guy. Chatting about stuff - her RA came. He was devastated that a young person (40's ) has RA - he had lived through it with his wife. I mean, he about cried right there on the spot, had to get himself together. It still really sucks - but it used to have almost no treatments. 

More side note -people with one auto-immune disorder tend to get more. Do not look this up unless you are prepared - I mean it - Bulbous Pemphagoids  - she has a case of that too. Mild so far - the same horrendously expensive drug is at least a 2-fer - it covers both.

Thanks Bean :D Off to learn more stuff.

Oh - business related - just worked over all day yesterday 6am to 8pm, got 3-ish hours sleep, got up at 12am, to 5am - got up at 6:45am back to town. This rushing bandwidth expansion is a pain in the butt - and most internet providers are all offering to up speeds, up total bandwidth, waive fees - going to be a rough few weeks.

Bean

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Re: Caronavirus - business implications
« Reply #22 on: March 20, 2020, 05:07:55 PM »
Its funny, I was talking to a doc just a couple days ago about the virus-crisis and he just happened to mention the potential benefit of Naltrexone in a low dose.  It would be great  if you could get some benefit from it. 

Fishman

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Re: Caronavirus - business implications
« Reply #23 on: March 22, 2020, 08:33:51 PM »
 I find myself frequently wrestling with our current situation. Whether we are being over reactive, or under reactive. I definitely have some empathy for our political leaders.

 On one hand, i don't want to see our country have a total economic collapse, and end up looking like Venezuela. And on the other hand, i don't want our mortality rates looking like Italy's (or worst!!!). We are starting to see the some localized exponential increases of cases and deaths. New York drives this point home for me. The reality of "worst case scenario" is now staring us right in the face.

 I've come to accept that the US, and the world, is not going to look the same no matter we do. Some major  industries are going to change, some drastically.

 One of my sons will see his business disappear. He will adapt by going in a new direction, bottom line it going to be hard for him but he understands this reality. My other son a sports cameraman just got hired to a news cameraman/tech producer position. The timing was perfect for him, but regardless that type of change, change was going to happen.

Unless the Hydroxychloroquine /azithromycin medication combo, or some other off the shelf medication works, and works ASAP, the world will be a different place. If one of these meds work, great. In that case, bail-outs of companies could be feasible.  But, if there is no cure in the immediate future, what would be the point of bailing out these enviably changing industries? 

If the government is going to help the economy. I say put the Bail-out money in the hands of the people, and let them spend accordingly. Put enough money in their hands, and they will spend it. It won't be on airline tickets,  ship cruses,  maybe not even on restaurants, hotels, bars, or entertainment, at least not in the same way of the past. But, we will find something to spend it on, we always do. And whatever it is, it will see growth, and the economy will move forward.  I really hate the Gov printing money (Q E). But this time, yeah it's understandable.

   Bill Ackman on CNBC makes some very good points here.


Anybody else thinking this weeks market action will be the next level?
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 09:08:50 PM by Fishman »
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Re: Caronavirus - business implications
« Reply #24 on: March 23, 2020, 01:48:03 AM »
Oregon has been vacillating about how to manage our response.  The Governor and Portland's mayor don't agree so there has been quite a bit of confusion.  I posted the current guidelines below.  These are getting reviewed today and may be updated to disallow Manufacturing and Construction.  Consider that for a second.  Any one of these entire sectors being shuttered nationwide would be an enormous economic event.  As a whole, however, what has already occurred is way outside of anything we have experienced in our lifetimes. 

https://www.oregonlive.com/business/2020/03/coronavirus-brings-oregon-a-sudden-economic-catastrophe-the-worst-week-ever.html
https://www.opb.org/news/article/oregon-coronavirus-stay-at-home-stay-healthy/

Coronavirus (Covid-19)
Latest Oregon Update

Governor Kate Brown has issued an executive order on social distancing measures for Oregon. These guidelines are effective March 17 and continuing through April 14, 2020 (and may be extended as needed) in response to the nationwide Coronavirus outbreak. These guidelines include:

Cancellation of all events and gatherings larger than 25 people (grocery stores, retail stores, workplaces are not included).

Gatherings of 10 people or more are highly discouraged.

Restaurants, bars and other establishments that offer food or beverages are restricted to carry out and delivery only, no onsite consumption.

All other businesses should evaluate practices and consider options.

Oregon Public Schools are to remain closed through April 28, 2020.


« Last Edit: March 23, 2020, 01:52:18 AM by Admin »

surfercook

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Re: Caronavirus - business implications
« Reply #25 on: March 23, 2020, 12:54:29 PM »
The pandemic has shut my census work down. I was an enumerator in 2010 so it was a rehire for me. Back then it was all classroom training and we recorded data on paper. It's mostly on a gov't issued laptop now which is way cooler and easier.

After completing 16 hours of online training, and another 16 hours of classroom training, plus 3 hours of field training, and 3 and a 1/2 full days canvassing in Barnegat Light (town near me that has all mail delivery to PO boxes) I have been pulled from the field due to the Corona-virus, along with all other US Census workers.
Doesn't look like we'll be going back anytime soon (tentative date is 4/1). Too bad, I was killing it! I guess it's for the best but most of the houses are empty down there anyway so I was not in contact with hardly anyone.

« Last Edit: March 23, 2020, 12:59:30 PM by surfercook »
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Wetstuff

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Re: Caronavirus - business implications
« Reply #26 on: March 24, 2020, 09:27:06 AM »
Marc....  I would get large letters on a T-shirt: Soy no esta la Migra. Those houses might not be empty.*  That little bag looks like you are handing out 'Workers Daily' pamphlets for Bernie.

Jim

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Re: Caronavirus - business implications
« Reply #27 on: March 24, 2020, 09:36:31 AM »
Our "Stay Home" order came last night, going in place tomorrow. Essential businesses are allowed to stay open. My businesses  (engineering and land surveying) both support several of the "essential businesses" but are not listed directly.

Our main customers are involved with manufacturing (wood products), construction, infrastructure and education. With construction projects ongoing we really can't leave our post at this time. I am working on a work plan to cover it. Mostly shutting down public interaction except via telcon/skype and having employees work from home when possible, following all CDC guidelines for cleanliness. I am sending an e-mail to the state to verify I am okay to stay open.
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Re: Caronavirus - business implications
« Reply #28 on: March 26, 2020, 08:24:46 AM »
There is a crazy portion of this "2 Trillion dollar" stimulus that deserves a lot of attention.  Check out the substantially larger figures actually available for leveraging loans to (big) business.

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/03/25/stimulus-bill-gives-fed-direct-loan-funds-with-few-strings/

The Fed has created six credit facilities in the last two weeks — in addition to slashing interest rates to almost zero and starting to buy unlimited amounts of U.S. Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities from banks — and has plans to open more in an effort to keep U.S. banks and businesses solvent while much of the economy shuts down to slow the pandemic’s spread.

While the Fed works regularly with banks and other nonbank financial firms, its actions to provide direct credit to other corporations is a step the central bank didn't take even during the 2008 financial crisis.

The $454 billion would fund those credit facilities.  Senate Banking Chairman Michael D. Crapo, R-Idaho., said in a statement that the funds would support $4 trillion in Fed lending.

On a press call Wednesday with reporters, Sen. Patrick J. Toomey, R-Pa., offered a smaller amount, saying the Fed could leverage those funds into $2 trillion to $3 trillion in loans.

When making loans and loan guarantees out of the $454 billion fund, the Treasury would need to restrict borrowers from buying back stocks or paying out dividends until a year after the loan is repaid. The borrowers would also have to agree to executive compensation limits for the life of the loans. But the bill would allow Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to waive those restrictions “upon a determination that such a waiver is necessary to protect the interests of the Federal Government.”
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 08:28:37 AM by Admin »

Tom

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Re: Caronavirus - business implications
« Reply #29 on: March 26, 2020, 09:36:06 AM »
What are the airlines and others in the travel industry going to use the bailout money for? No one is traveling because there are travel restrictions, not because there is a lack of funds. I doubt that they going to give it to the employees they've laid off.