Author Topic: The Virus is getting more spooky - when the Docs get sick - and they are 32!!  (Read 4859 times)

Beasho

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People have been saying the United States is somehow tracking with Italy.  This is FALSE.

The first case reported in the US was on Jan 25th, 2020.  The first case in Italy (reported) was Feb 7th.  Nearly 2 weeks AFTER the first Case in the United States.

Comparing on a Date Timeline is shown in GRAPHIC #1.

Days Running Adjusted, because the United States has been exposed for 50 days since the first cases in Seattle, shows an even greater separation between the United States and Italy.  GRAPHIC #2.   

ITALY must have fundamental differences that have to include some of the following:

  • Very different LEADERSHIP response
  • Very different BEHAVIORAL response
  • Different Age or Comorbidity profile
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 02:28:43 PM by Beasho »

Beasho

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Expanding this Running Days view to include additional Countries shows further dispersion.

Iran, Italy and Spain are going geometric.  South Korea has peaked.  France is on the rise and the United States appears to be in a slow burn mode.

Singapore has managed ZERO deaths as of Saturday 3/14.

Dwight (DW)

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I read an article where Italy was seeing unusually high cases of pneumonia back in December and some now think it was Covid-19.

Admin

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The US has conducted a total of 13,953 tests nationally.  South Korea (for example) is testing nearly 20,000 people a day.  We are testing far fewer people per day than most countries and even many tiny countries.

We have really no idea as to the current scope or projection of our outbreak.  The vast majority people who are sick here and are seeking testing still cannot get tested. 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/why-coronavirus-testing-us-so-delayed/607954/

Beasho

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The US has conducted a total of 13,953 tests nationally.  South Korea (for example) is testing nearly 20,000 people a day.  We are testing far fewer people per day than most countries and even many tiny countries.
I don't disagree that we have FOR SOME REASON sucked at testing.  But like having a business objective:

The Primary Goal is to have LESS PEOPLE DEAD

The United States has achieved this goal so far.  Despite having been exposed for 2 weeks LONGER than Italy and for the same amount of TIME as Korea.  Your suspicion would also lead to FAR FAR more infections than we suspect.  But there are still VERY few deaths in the United States.  Unless people are randomly dropping dead and we don't know it.

This may again be GOOD NEWS.  More people have it than we thought.  Because we haven't tested.  BUT fewer are dieing than expected. 

Surfside

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Scientists in China claim to have identified two main strains of the coronavirus that is circulating in humans, indicating that the virus is mutating.

Researchers at Peking University’s School of Life Sciences and the Institute Pasteur of Shanghai say the COVID-19 virus, which has since been renamed SARS-CoV2, has evolved into two major lineages, known as “L” and “S” types.

The newer and more aggressive L type strain accounted for about 70 per cent of the analysed cases, the researchers said, while the rest were linked to the older S type version.

But its frequency decreased from early January, which the researchers attributed to human intervention.

The S type strain, meanwhile, is continuing to infect new patients, which experts believe could be because it is less severe, meaning people carry it for longer before going to the hospital, increasing the risk of it passing it on.

Guess we'll be hanging at the beach if a curfew is implemented.

https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/coronavirus-aggressive-l-type-strain-affecting-70-per-cent-of-cases/
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 06:53:30 PM by Surfside »

TallDude

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We are in the line of fire. My wife is a critical care nurse. There was a patient suspected of having COVID-19 in a room that she was working in, the day after her last shift. For now, she dogged that one. Everyone that was working with that patient or in the room has been quarantined. Over 20 staff members. They are going to be rapidly losing nurses and staff. She's severely at risk, as well as our kids and I. We've separated our drinking flasks, and will separate towel usage. I teach at a local college and we are shifting to an all online format. My daughters university has done the same for the remainder of the semester. Zoom is the predominant app of face to face online teaching with Canvas as the backbone. We have training this week to learn how to transition our curriculum to all online. Believe it or not, making all my surf videos is paying off. I'm way ahead of the curve on that:)
Scary times! Hang on, the reef is sharp and shallow.
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Dusk Patrol

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wow, take care TD... and everyone... In Washington, schools, restaurants, bars and "entertainment and recreational facilities" are to be closed statewide.  (Take out is allowed.)  Gatherings greater than 50 people are prohibited. Less than 50, also prohibited unless certain social distancing criteria are met. Quite the disruption to business as usual.   
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Researchers at Peking University’s School of Life Sciences and the Institute Pasteur of Shanghai say the COVID-19 virus, which has since been renamed SARS-CoV2, has evolved into two major lineages, known as “L” and “S” types.

Really interesting stuff Surfside. 

The naming has been confusing.  I thought that this article was helpful with that and with the origins (Bats).  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/summary.html


The virus has been named “SARS-CoV-2” and the disease it causes has been named “coronavirus disease 2019” (abbreviated “COVID-19”).

Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are common in people and many different species of animals, including camels, cattle, cats, and bats. Rarely, animal coronaviruses can infect people and then spread between people such as with MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, and now with this new virus (named SARS-CoV-2).

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is a betacoronavirus, like MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV.  All three of these viruses have their origins in bats. The sequences from U.S. patients are similar to the one that China initially posted, suggesting a likely single, recent emergence of this virus from an animal reservoir.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 05:23:57 AM by Admin »

Admin

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The US has conducted a total of 13,953 tests nationally.  South Korea (for example) is testing nearly 20,000 people a day.  We are testing far fewer people per day than most countries and even many tiny countries.
I don't disagree that we have FOR SOME REASON sucked at testing.  But like having a business objective:

The Primary Goal is to have LESS PEOPLE DEAD

The United States has achieved this goal so far.  Despite having been exposed for 2 weeks LONGER than Italy and for the same amount of TIME as Korea.  Your suspicion would also lead to FAR FAR more infections than we suspect.  But there are still VERY few deaths in the United States.  Unless people are randomly dropping dead and we don't know it.

This may again be GOOD NEWS.  More people have it than we thought.  Because we haven't tested.  BUT fewer are dieing than expected.

Hi Beasho,

Your charting of the existing data is excellent, interesting and helpful.  It is hard not to look at it though and see a very uncomfortable similarity between our USA curve and Italy's once the escalation began.  We are basically a flat line as a runup to that escalation.  Did we pick up early cases where they did not?  I have no answer.  In fact, the curves on your chart (all countries) look very similar to where we are now without the near flat runups (excluding Singapore). 

In terms of death rate we are all hoping for the same thing.  That said, when Italy had 400 cases they had 12 dead. 
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-italy-spread-death-toll-tries-to-control-5-2020-2

« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 05:42:38 AM by Admin »

surfinJ

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Just had probably my last session for awhile. The French president comes on tv tonite to announce a lockdown most likely.

What we have seen in Asia is coming to us all I am afraid.  It is just a matter of time.

This feels similar to a very big day, paddling over the first wave of a set to see the monster of a cleanup wave approaching at the back of the set. Head down, breath deep, and keep paddling.

Good luck to all.

deepmud

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Working from home the next few weeks. Stocks are scary - but they were pushed up by huge tax cuts to corporations and low interest rates - too bad we hadn't already been pulling back on the economy-boost throttle the last year or so - we'd have some leverage.

SUP Leave

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Strange times in the US. Here in Washington our schools are to be closed for 6 weeks. Which I supposed is based on the time to contract or carry the virus plus recover, or possibly the flattening of the curve? I am confused by the timeline, when it seems like 3 weeks and look at the data would be more apt for the situation. The next 2 weeks will tell the story of the curve IMO (but also a lot of much smarter opinions as well).

CDC recommends as of yesterday for the next 8 weeks, no gatherings over 50 people should be held, but this does not apply to schools, businesses, colleges, etc. So, states who are cancelling schools are making the determination based on their local public health officials recommendations - I always believe that local control is better than the massive red tape elephant of the Fed. I just feel like maybe the lengths of this is overkill when we are about to experience the surge of infections in the next couple of weeks. I hope they can back this off as needed.

I  understand and agree with shutting down the schools via local control early in the outbreak, but get this really weird feeling that Covid-19 reactions are the newest form of virtue signalling. I.e. the Governors of WA, CA, NY, CT and a few others are imposing big shutdowns, beyond the Fed recommendations. The echo chamber of Twitter, the media etc, is amplifying these decisions as "real leadership". It just amazes how social media fills up with amateur virologists who are 100% sure the answer is to stay home and look at their phone and Netflix for 6 weeks. Pretty sure that WA governor Inslee is going to use his response to this virus as a springboard to whatever is next for him politically.

It also amazes me how many people want more government control of their lives. I can't count the number of tweets asking for the government to restrict us further. How about educate and restrict yourself? That is the only thing that freaks me out about this virus and the reaction to it. New Jersey just imposed a 8pm to 5 AM (recommended) curfew. Is there virus science supporting this? Anyone with a brain understands the virus is coming and that there are logical steps to curtail it right now, but celebration of the illogical steps is what I keep seeing.






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TallDude

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New Jersey just imposed a 8pm to 5 AM (recommended) curfew. Is there virus science supporting this? Anyone with a brain understands the virus is coming and that there are logical steps to curtail it right now, but celebration of the illogical steps is what I keep seeing.
Everyone know's that the virus zombies only come out at night.
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SUP Leave

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See, if I knew about the zombies the curfew would make more sense.

Actually the CDC just came out with the backing data for that, they want all restaurants and bars, etc to close at 8 pm for 2 weeks. This is the kind of thing I can get behind. 1 - it provides solid guidelines; 8 pm for 2 weeks, and 2- there is backing data; Italy is 2 weeks ahead, these are the crucial 2 weeks. A business owner can plan for this and make it work. The guideline of "Until further notice" does not work well for business people.

Optimism is far better for me than unknownism. Even if it is wrong optimism, it provides a benchmark we can plan for.

I have a good friend who owns an Italian restaurant. It is a very good restaurant, widely popular, and yet his margins are pretty thin (like most restaurants). He is trying to figure out a way to not lay off his staff, but will not find a way out of it and he knows it. Every time we talk I feel like I am talking to a guy on the ledge of a building about to jump. Even though he personally will be fine after this, it is killing him to lay off seasoned workers. Luckily, construction and other trades are not stopping. That alone makes me less worried about the economy.

Also, I found a great social distancing tool yesterday: Surfing in 36 degree weather with 15kt wind.
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