Author Topic: The Virus is getting more spooky - when the Docs get sick - and they are 32!!  (Read 4866 times)

Quickbeam

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I'm not on Twitter, but I ran across this link that talks about the discussion they are having in Italy right now re the allocation of resources. This is scary stuff!

https://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1237731864233807872


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surf4food

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With all the panic shopping for toilet paper going on, I wonder of some think squeezing the Charmin will ward off the virus? 

Tom

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You don't want to be in Italy! Based on the web link Tom posted, it's 827 deaths with only 720 recovered.... Not even batting 50% there.

They are sending my daughter home from college because of this. The thing is she has to fly coast to coast with a layover. Planes and airports are no good right now either.


Yes,but.............
Cherry picking statistics can lead to false impressions.
The numbers are
12462 confirmed cases
827 dead
1045 recovering
10950 active

It takes 2 weeks to to recover. Not sure how long it takes to die, but it could be 2 weeks or more. A percent of the active will die and some will recover. We'll know more two weeks from now.
It's just too early to draw conclusions from the data we have at this point

deepmud

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this is a week old now  - but it shows something about where the most cases are - where the most data is, where the death rate was initially REALLY BAD - and that it's a much lower rate of death if there is time to prepare. It talks about the deaths of doctors in Wuhan - sounds like they kept trying to save lives when it seems to be very important to get rest. The flu kills young healthy people too - I was nearly hospitalized for flu-turned-pneumonia in my late 20's because I would not rest up - I had finals for college! It was actually only my lack of health insurance that kept me out - cool right?

Anyway - initial death rate of over 15% holy moly!! (my opinion - only REALLY sick people were part of the first wave - the not-so-sick weren't counted) Then down to 2%, then 1%.

This isn't a long painful article - it's worth the time.


https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/03/809904660/why-the-death-rate-from-coronavirus-is-plunging-in-china

Night Wing

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I'm going to throw my two cents in here.

I live in the state of Texas. In Texas, we have an estimated population of 27 "million" people. At the time of this posting from me, we have 22 cases of COVID-19 and "zero" deaths.

Most of the people in the rural counties I associate with, think this strain of virus is getting way overblown simply because there is no vaccine for it.

But if you listen to all the doomsayers in the media, this virus is on the same level as the bubonic plague (The Black Death) in the medieval times in Europe. Well, it isn't. The bubonic plague killed "millions" in the medieval ages. This virus is nothing like the Black Death and the death rate proves it.

Of the deaths in the US from this virus, Washington state has the most deaths at 30 people and half of those were in a nursing home with many elderly people. The elderly are the most susceptible.

If you come down with this virus, three things will happen. You will get a slight case, you'll get a severe case but will recover or your immune system will not be able to fight off the virus and you'll die. This is the long and short of it.

To make my point. When I was a child, they didn't "yet" have vaccines for childhood diseases as measles, chicken pox, etc. Measles kills. I had the measles, "twice" since there were two strains of it. I just stayed home and I lived. I didn't really get very sick. But the rash I had itched like crazy.

Here is a list of states with COVID-19 as of 8 hours ago with this posting.

-Washington: 373 cases, 30 deaths

-New York: 220 cases

-California: 181 cases (157 non-repatriated, 24 repatriated), 4 deaths

-Massachusetts: 95 cases

-Colorado: 34 cases

-Florida: 29 cases, 2 deaths

-New Jersey: 23 cases, 1 death

-Illinois: 23 cases

-Georgia: 22 cases

-Texas: 22 cases

-Oregon: 19 cases

-Pennsylvania: 16 cases

-Iowa: 14 cases

-Louisiana: 13 cases

-Maryland: 12 cases

-Indiana: 11 cases

-South Carolina: 10 cases

-D.C.: 10 cases

-Nebraska: 10 cases

-Arizona: 9 cases

-Virginia: 9 cases

-North Carolina: 9 cases

-Tennessee: 9 cases

-South Dakota: 8 cases, 1 death

-Kentucky: 8 cases

-Nevada: 7 cases

-Wisconsin: 6 cases

-Minnesota: 5 cases

-New Hampshire: 5 cases

-Rhode Island: 5 cases

-Ohio: 4 cases

-New Mexico: 4 cases

-Connecticut: 3 cases

-Utah: 3 cases

-Hawaii: 2 cases

-Michigan: 2 cases

-Oklahoma: 2 cases

-Vermont: 2 cases

-Arkansas: 1 case

-Kansas: 1 case

-Missouri: 1 case

-Wyoming: 1 case

-Montana: 1 case

-Missouri: 1 case
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Beasho

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In 2015 with the outbreak of Ebola and another virus (?) I remember running the numbers.  And it WAS NOT GEOMETRIC in its growth.

The virus (not Ebola) also started popping up all over the world.  To which I concluded - It arrived SO QUICKLY EVERYWHERE that it must have already been there.  These 2 thoughts were not lost on this event.

1) At First Corona Virus did NOT appear to be GEOMETRIC.   The cases in China were NOT GEOMETRICALLY rising from 20 to 200 to 20,000 to 200,000 NOR were the death tolls.  This was good news.

2) Yesterday morning there was a graph that showed GEOMETRIC infectious growth in countries outside of China

OMG We're Screwed!!!!!

The only few rays of hope are now:

A) China's rates of growth appear to have stalled.  Assuming the data is correct this means that geometric growth has STOPPED.  This is KEY.  HARD STOP.  Means that the virus spread is controllable. Even with Draconian measures this may not be another Spanish Flu or worse what we used to think Ebola could do aka wipe out 90% of the world in weeks.

B) The Flu season does have something to do with weather.  That's why we call it a season.  Something about warm weather prevents the flu.  It can't be the virus because, I would suspect, warm moist conditions would be less likely to kill the virus.  I would think viruses persist in warm conditions.  If its NOT the virus then it is PEOPLE who's immune system is compromised in Winter.  Epiphany for me, maybe not for others, but the infection map of the world shows this.  Warm weather may slow and help contain the geometric spread (and ideally not conflagrate next year).

If fewer than 10,000 people die from this in the United States it will be a HUGE WIN!

PS: A reliable friend in ASPEN Colorado reported 1 Confirmed case of an Australian who was touring with 10 other people.  All 10 confirmed infected and quarantined at one of the Ritzy hotels.  As he said "Who is paying for that?"
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 07:21:47 AM by Beasho »

Beasho

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PS: A reliable friend in ASPEN Colorado reported 1 Confirmed case of an Australian who was touring with 10 other people.  All 10 confirmed infected and quarantined at one of the Ritzy hotels.  As he said "Who is paying for that?"

And there it is!!!!!!!

ASPEN the HOT Zone for Colorado:

https://www.aspentimes.com/news/aspen-tests-reveal-largest-virus-cluster-in-state/

PonoBill

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Given how infectious this virus is, and the fact that people shed virus before they become symptomatic it appears that the spread can't really be stopped, any more than the common cold can be stopped. The aim of social distancing and the harsh measures in China is to flatten the curve to enable health care facilities to cope. Without effective slowing, the hospitals will get overwhelmed and people who need intensive care and ventilation won't be able to get it. It's likely that a larger percentage of the population will get the virus and become immune to the particular strain they recover from. As with seasonal influenza, the virus mutates a lot. Virii depend on the mechanisms of the hijacked cell to replicate, and copies are sometimes crappy. Most of them aren't viable (stretching the term viable to include non-living clumps of molecules that can force cells to copy them), but lots of the inaccurate copies are still viable and can infect cells. Naturally, they confuse the cytotoxic T cells a little and they might not recognize and rip the virus to little shreds. But I digress.

Virus epidemics end when there aren't enough hosts to spread the virus. There's no indication that this virus is particularly temperature-sensitive, there really isn't a fully convincing case that seasonal flu is temperature-sensitive in any practical range. The most likely scenario is that the epidemics stop when there are enough people who are either vaccinated or have had the virus in the available population to push the Ro below 1 and keep it there. Social distancing, hygiene, and quarantine are unlikely to stop the progression, but they can slow it, and potentially end the spread sooner. We are unlikely to quarantine any significantly large populations for long, so it can't be seen as a solution. It's a stopgap, but necessary.

The downsides of some responses may prove to do much more harm than good. A large percentage of healthcare workers have elementary school-age kids at home. Closing schools without considering the result might kill a lot of people.
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Tom

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I found this article interesting

[Bloomberg) -- About half the people who tested positive for the coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship appeared to show no symptoms, according to an estimate published Friday. Of the 634 confirmed cases aboard the ship off of the coast of Japan last month, 328 were reported to be asymptomatic, the review said. There were 3,063 people tested on the ship in total.

Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/about-half-of-cruise-virus-cases-asymptomatic-study-suggests
Copyright © BloombergQuint]

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Tom,  That's one of those 'Good News/Bad News', eh?   

I am luckily situated ('for this'): ' never had walk-ins to my business and we're one-of-70 properties on a 7mi road.  The only volume of outsiders utilizing the local airport are NASA types who drive an hour south to work at Wallops Is.

Yesterday, was the best'est day for dog walking at the shore since Fall, and even there;  Few campers and plenty of 'social distancing'.

I looked at the Cocoa Beach cam yesterday - the beach was packed!   https://www.surfguru.com/cocoa-beach-pier-surf-report.   Maybe they were already avoiding Disney World or never got their cruise ship.  Stay safe.

Jim



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Beasho

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Running my own numbers.  Built an interface to pull the daily data.

This provides both calm and horror.  What did China do to Slow the Growth (assuming the data is correct).  This also cleary shows the Exponential growth outside of China starting ~ Feb 21, 2020

Pulls from the WHO CSV File here:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data

--> https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/full_data.csv

See attached.  What did China do????

Beasho

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Data in Table form.  I then used some assumptions to project where things might be in
  • 1 Week
  • 30 Days
  • 60 Days
  The projections for 1) Italy 2) Spain and 3) France show why they are taking extreme measures.

Numbers for the United States from the news today are suggesting >> 2,000 cases already (March 14, 2020) - This is Bad

PS: I put some collars on the growth (where it was TOO vertical). 

I am not fully convinced of the 84,000 dead in 30 days.  The solution is
A) The rest of the world FIGURES OUT WHAT CHINA DID or
B) There are MASSIVE numbers of un-reported asymptomatic cases 

The data, from the WHO, smells fishy.  I am leaning towards many, many more infected than reported.  This would mean the death rate is LOWER than shown.  Alternately the virus is massively biased and attacking compromised people (which we have heard) but it could be very extreme comorbidity conditions.

Definitions:
•   Cases: Cumulative Amount per Location
•   Deaths: Cumulative Amount per Location
•   Latest 1 Day: Total case reported in latest report
•   1 Day%: The Latest 1 Day Total divided by the Cumulative Number of Cases
•   Death%: The Total Deaths divided by Cumulative Number of Cases
•   2X Days: 1 / 1 Day%.  This gives the number of days to Double the total number of Cases given the Latest 1 day total
•   1 Week: Estimates the number of Cases based upon the 2X Days rate one week from now.  If 2X Days = 7 Then the 1 Week total would be 2 X the number of current Cases.  Fewer days grows exponentially faster
•   30 Days: Estimates the number of Cases based upon the 2X Days rate 30 Days from now.
•   30 Day Dead: Death% multiplied by the 30 Days Case Number Estimate
•   60 Days:  Estimates the number of Cases based upon the 2X Days rate 60 Days from now.

« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 04:48:10 PM by Beasho »

Beasho

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This is significant:

What are the chances that an entire GROUP of people age 0 - 9  would have ZERO fatalities? Mathematically almost impossible given the 72,000 infection cases.

Then there is the Comorbitiy rate.  With NO pre-existing conditions the mortality rate is 0.9%.  And this doesn't exclude the people that may have not been diagnosed with one of these conditions but DOES include older people!!!!  Combining these 2 factors into ONE Matrix would give you a much clearer perspective of your personal risk profile. 

More here:
Youth, in contrast, seems to be protective. The WHO mission reported a relatively low incidence in people under 18, who made up only 2.4% of all reported cases. In fact, through mid-January, zero children in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, had contracted Covid-19. It’s not clear whether that’s because children do not show signs of illness even if infected.

Even cases among children and teens aged 10 to 19 are rare. As of Feb. 11 there were 549 cases in that age group, 1.2% of the total, China CDC found. Only one had died.


This appears to be a science fiction grade killing machine that is culling the herd.  The problem is we all know people that it will target or may be unlucky enough to have a risky condition.   

Who is getting sick?
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/

Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 07:00:39 PM by Beasho »

justsomeguy

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Thank you for the data wrangling Beasho!  I for one would much rather see real data and form my own opinions versus going with what the media provides.  Lets hope that China data is legit, but it looks almost a little too good.  Please continue to keep us posted.
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Admin

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With this long incubation period and symptom onsets (below) and effectively no testing it is really no surprise that we have gone from 7 states with cases to 49 in March.  It has had way too much time.  We have to assume that this is now in every community.  We haven't done anything better than Italy.  In many ways we have been worse.  It is not alarmist to expect a similar path of events here and things are going badly there. 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32150748

There were 181 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure and symptom onset windows to estimate the incubation period of COVID-19. The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine.