Poll

This is a uniquely informed and diverse group to survey on any question, most definitely this one.  At this point, for whom would you cast your ballot?

Trump
19 (46.3%)
Biden
9 (22%)
Sanders
8 (19.5%)
Booker
4 (9.8%)
Klobuchar
1 (2.4%)

Total Members Voted: 41

Voting closed: March 21, 2019, 04:39:47 PM

Author Topic: 2020 Vision  (Read 124724 times)

Bean

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #720 on: April 29, 2019, 12:58:02 PM »
With the electoral college in place, presidential candidates naturally need to get electoral votes from multiple regions and therefore have to build campaign platforms with a widespread national focus.  Without the college, many regions in the US would be ignored to the benefit of more highly populated metropolitan areas.  Rural regions would be marginalized for sure.  In this case we are not trying to be equal, at best we might be somewhat equitable...

I'm not saying that there can't be reform, but it's not as simple as switching off a light bulb.
I agree. There was a good discussion a year or two ago here with some good arguments in favor, or at least against a straight popular vote.  The arguments I don't buy are the ones (not from you) about keeping it because it's there, keeping it because people that question it are sore-loser Democrats, etc. Those kind of arguments don't counter the good arguments people are making against the electoral system, they just--ironically--make it sound like there are no good arguments for it.

We should always be looking to improve the process, especially as technology allows and I'm in favor of a more direct democracy.  But there has to be a balance.

It's ironic that in Federalist Paper #68 Hamilton wrote, "a successful candidate for the office of president would have to have the distinguished qualities to appeal to electors from many states, not just one or a few states:

Talents for low intrigue, and the little arts of popularity, may alone suffice to elevate a man to the first honors in a single State; but it will require other talents, and a different kind of merit, to establish him in the esteem and confidence of the whole Union, or of so considerable a portion of it as would be necessary to make him a successful candidate for the distinguished office of President of the United States."

Yet, we end up with the Donald  ;D  You can't make this stuff up...

pdxmike

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #721 on: April 29, 2019, 02:54:28 PM »

Notice that here, in the enlightened Standupzone,  TRUMP is at 46 percent after being in office for 2 years. 

JP
Is that relevant to whether there should be an electoral system?


What I see is plenty of people here would vote for Trump, given those choices, which isn't surprising.  I also see that slightly more people would vote Democratic than Republican, which isn't surprising.  I assume not all of those would vote for a Democrat that wasn't the one they want.  I'd guess actual polls during past presidencies would have the incumbent doing better after two years, but I don't know. But again, all irrelevant to the electoral issue.

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #722 on: April 29, 2019, 04:35:32 PM »
   I got to keep 3% more of my pay this year,  and I made more money due to the good economy.     Lets get out there and protest !

Here is an interesting poll about the economy https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_042919/

Only 12% of Americans say that their family has benefited a great deal from recent growth in the U.S. economy and another 31% say they have received some benefit from the economic upturn. A majority, though, say they have been helped either not much (27%) or not at all (27%) from the nation’s macroeconomic growth. These results are nearly identical to Monmouth polls taken in 2018 as well as just before Trump took office in January 2017.  Only 34% of those earning less than $50,000 a year and 42% of those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 say they have benefited at least somewhat from the growing economy. This contrasts with those earning more the $100,000, where a majority (58%) say they have benefited.

Area 10

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #723 on: April 29, 2019, 04:41:38 PM »
I’m interested to hear what you guys think will happen politically in the USA if income inequality carries on growing. Nothing? Something? If something, then what?

RideTheGlide

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #724 on: April 29, 2019, 05:46:14 PM »
I’m interested to hear what you guys think will happen politically in the USA if income inequality carries on growing. Nothing? Something? If something, then what?

I think progressive tax rates that get into high percentages for stratospheric income will come back to support a greatly increased safety net. The wild card in this would be a populist on the left "dog whistling" rioting in the streets. By "dog whistling" I mean similar to what Trump has said about his supporters possibly rioting if certain things happened (like losing the election). Directly inciting a riot is illegal and can be prosecuted; guessing that your supporters might do something like that is not. Capitalism polls badly with the under 30 crowd; there may (hopefully) be a peaceful gradual transition to social democracy as defined here:
Social democracy is an ideology that supports interventions to promote social justice within a political democracy and capitalist economy. It involves measures for income redistribution and regulation of the economy for the interest of everyone in society.

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surf4food

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #725 on: April 29, 2019, 06:02:26 PM »
I’m interested to hear what you guys think will happen politically in the USA if income inequality carries on growing. Nothing? Something? If something, then what?

If it continues to grow (which I think it will), eventually there will be a boiling point and we'll see an all out citizen revolt.  I think we are already at the beginning stages of that in a few scattered areas here in California.  Vandalism, threats and physical violence against new residents with more spending power has actually taken place.

lucabrasi

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #726 on: April 29, 2019, 10:24:40 PM »
With the electoral college in place, presidential candidates naturally need to get electoral votes from multiple regions and therefore have to build campaign platforms with a widespread national focus.  Without the college, many regions in the US would be ignored to the benefit of more highly populated metropolitan areas.  Rural regions would be marginalized for sure.  In this case we are not trying to be equal, at best we might be somewhat equitable...
I'm not saying that there can't be reform, but it's not as simple as switching off a light bulb.
yes, like pdx said, and I am sure you remember, there were some good dscussions pertaining to this before...damn if I remember the specifics any better either.
Looking at this
http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/

9 states make up roughly half the population.
Roughly 50-60 million make up the bottom 25, 275 million or so make up the top 25.
 
I don't think that without the electoral (or some sort of correction/help/adjustment for lack of some better description) that a real representation would occur.
Very diverse cultures all through us...everywhere you go. You got city, country, ranch, farm, ghetto, trailer trash, hill billy, cowboy, indian, hippie, hipster, boomer, yuppie, surf bums, ski bums, mountain dude, flower child, jesus freak, muslim, jew, hari krishna, cops, robbers, white collar, blue collar, slacker, geek, nerd, and even more than that.

Myself, I don't want someone running and who is just trying to get a couple of them kinds of peoples votes......I want someone that's trying to get all them peoples votes or at least the ones around me.
With that said......in many ways, they're only after the swing state votes right now....at least after the turn and down the stretch. We got's lots of all them kinds of people in all those places but not a true representation of all them peoples and it appears even out of the gate candidates are only after some specific dynamic or need of the population.
With that said........ and as was said earlier.......the amount of electoral votes Calif has compared to Wyoming may be a bit skewed anymore so some correction to the current electoral votes may need adjusted but I still would want candidates trying to get the votes of the entire country and not specific dynamics or areas.
anyways.........
« Last Edit: April 29, 2019, 10:29:40 PM by lucabrasi »

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #727 on: April 30, 2019, 02:12:48 AM »
I’m interested to hear what you guys think will happen politically in the USA if income inequality carries on growing. Nothing? Something? If something, then what?

First things first.  Voters will need to have a change of heart for anything to change.  Trump won with the huge voter group of families earning 50 to 100K a year and did surprisingly well with families earning under 50K.  https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2016  It was a tie over 100K.  This is how it breaks down Republican and Dem without specific candidates https://www.people-press.org/2016/09/13/2016-party-identification-detailed-tables/

Right now a substantial portion of the population sees immigration as a/the primary driver of their income issues.  The Dems are just starting to talk about automation but it is always secondary to Globalization.  Until the electorate buys into the actuality of what is causing income inequality, making corrections will be a slow/non existent process.  We need to put sane leadership in place.  We can then begin to slowly change that dialogue. 

jpeter

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #728 on: April 30, 2019, 04:51:15 AM »

Notice that here, in the enlightened Standupzone,  TRUMP is at 46 percent after being in office for 2 years. 

JP
Is that relevant to whether there should be an electoral system?


What I see is plenty of people here would vote for Trump, given those choices, which isn't surprising.  I also see that slightly more people would vote Democratic than Republican, which isn't surprising.  I assume not all of those would vote for a Democrat that wasn't the one they want.  I'd guess actual polls during past presidencies would have the incumbent doing better after two years, but I don't know. But again, all irrelevant to the electoral issue.

It's relevant based on the idea that Hillary supporters and other dems are the ones clamoring for the EC to be gotten rid of.

jpeter

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #729 on: April 30, 2019, 04:53:58 AM »
   I got to keep 3% more of my pay this year,  and I made more money due to the good economy.     Lets get out there and protest !

Here is an interesting poll about the economy https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_042919/

Only 12% of Americans say that their family has benefited a great deal from recent growth in the U.S. economy and another 31% say they have received some benefit from the economic upturn. A majority, though, say they have been helped either not much (27%) or not at all (27%) from the nation’s macroeconomic growth. These results are nearly identical to Monmouth polls taken in 2018 as well as just before Trump took office in January 2017.  Only 34% of those earning less than $50,000 a year and 42% of those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 say they have benefited at least somewhat from the growing economy. This contrasts with those earning more the $100,000, where a majority (58%) say they have benefited.

Keep in mind that 50% of americans do not pay any federal income tax.  It's kind of hard to give those folks a tax break.  They are benefiting from the low unemployment though.

paddlinglass

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #730 on: April 30, 2019, 05:25:04 AM »

"Keep in mind that 50% of americans do not pay any federal income tax.  It's kind of hard to give those folks a tax break.  They are benefiting from the low unemployment though."

Why tax people not making a living wage?

What doesn't get talked about is people making more off their money than most working people earn (often way more) from their labor.  That in itself is bad enough, that they have lower tax rates than working people is absurd.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2019, 05:27:18 AM by paddlinglass »

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #731 on: April 30, 2019, 05:29:37 AM »
   I got to keep 3% more of my pay this year,  and I made more money due to the good economy.     Lets get out there and protest !

Here is an interesting poll about the economy https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_042919/

Only 12% of Americans say that their family has benefited a great deal from recent growth in the U.S. economy and another 31% say they have received some benefit from the economic upturn. A majority, though, say they have been helped either not much (27%) or not at all (27%) from the nation’s macroeconomic growth. These results are nearly identical to Monmouth polls taken in 2018 as well as just before Trump took office in January 2017.  Only 34% of those earning less than $50,000 a year and 42% of those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 say they have benefited at least somewhat from the growing economy. This contrasts with those earning more the $100,000, where a majority (58%) say they have benefited.

Keep in mind that 50% of americans do not pay any federal income tax.  It's kind of hard to give those folks a tax break.  They are benefiting from the low unemployment though.

The poll above was about whether or not people were benefiting from what is being touted (falsely, in many respects) as a great economy.  This did not have to be a direct result tax changes.  It was basically the old are you better off today question.  The majority say the have been helped not much or not at all.  an additional group say they have been helped some.  That is very underwhelming considering the massive debt penalty that we are now paying for what was a very short lived bump. 

I hope that Biden continues to bring this issue home and begins to challenge anyone who boasts about this economy.  If it remains as it is into the election season the economy should be a strong issue for the Dems.

eastbound

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #732 on: April 30, 2019, 05:40:33 AM »
""Keep in mind that 50% of americans do not pay any federal income tax.  It's kind of hard to give those folks a tax break.  They are benefiting from the low unemployment though.""


but zero wage gains for 40 years--how benefitting??

and we have the lowest labor participation rate among industrial countries--and those are just the broken disaffected workers we're willing to count

zero wage gains during 40 years of great gdp growth, corp profits and stock mkt gains, efficiecy improvement etc---but all that fruit is in the holds of all the private jets flying around these days

and, poor or rich, we all pay plenty of federal taxes---ss and medicare, gas taxes, excise taxes, highway taxes

and for our many who qualify as hardworking poor, these taxes consume a big chunk of their disposable income

income tax matters most to those with high incomes---and theyve bought huge tax cuts over the last 40 years such that the rich have gotten much much richer

and the working poor have seen zero nominal wage gains, and actual declines in real wages

the working poor typically pay 20% of their gross income in taxes---if you count sales tax, gas tax, ss and medicare---which you have to--1000$ for ss and medicare puts a bite on a working poor person--ss/medicare for a rich guy caps at like 4g these days--not really an issue if youve a 7 figure income, no?

so the fox crap about the poor dont pay any taxes is just that---fox crap

below is an admittedly long piece, but it humanizes the reality for the hardworking poor experience--disgraceful that this happens--while the private jets keep a flyin'

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/column-much-poor-actually-pay-taxes-probably-think

dont forget walmart, our nations largest employer pays minimum wageto the bulk of their employees, and takes as much as 40 percent of pay if an employee needs walmart, crappy family health insurance, where some half are on food stamps---

60% of minimum wage workers work for large corporations--not small businesses at all

amazon too--thousands of their workers are on food stamps

hello working poor?!?  like why are we taxpayers feeding the poor hardworking employees of the biggest most successful investor-enriching corps in USA?   wtf

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/08/24/thousands-amazon-workers-receive-food-stamps-now-bernie-sanders-wants-amazon-pay-up/?utm_term=.77750a9ee55c

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Area 10

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #733 on: April 30, 2019, 06:29:10 AM »
Wow, it sounds like you guys have got it even worse than we have: in the UK, we ordinary folk are being totally shafted by the super-rich, and the corporations, just like you. But at least we KNOW we are being shafted. It seems like nearly half of the US population are getting it hard up the back passage from some rich white guy but they are just bending over and letting him do it while not taking their eyes off the poor undocumented migrant working for a pittance, while somehow blaming the pain in their ass on that poor soul.

RideTheGlide

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #734 on: April 30, 2019, 06:59:46 AM »
Wow, it sounds like you guys have got it even worse than we have: in the UK, we ordinary folk are being totally shafted by the super-rich, and the corporations, just like you. But at least we KNOW we are being shafted. It seems like nearly half of the US population are getting it hard up the back passage from some rich white guy but they are just bending over and letting him do it while not taking their eyes off the poor undocumented migrant working for a pittance, while somehow blaming the pain in their ass on that poor soul.

I like this explanation.
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