Poll

This is a uniquely informed and diverse group to survey on any question, most definitely this one.  At this point, for whom would you cast your ballot?

Trump
19 (46.3%)
Biden
9 (22%)
Sanders
8 (19.5%)
Booker
4 (9.8%)
Klobuchar
1 (2.4%)

Total Members Voted: 41

Voting closed: March 21, 2019, 04:39:47 PM

Author Topic: 2020 Vision  (Read 124012 times)

Bean

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #660 on: April 26, 2019, 06:11:18 PM »
Mixing apples and oranges, even in these basic statistics is misleading.

Why would anyone assume that not even one of the non-voting registered voters support Trump?  Bottom line is, he got 46% of the popular vote, more importantly, he picked up the electoral vote...end of story.

PonoBill

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #661 on: April 26, 2019, 07:25:25 PM »
Of course. I didn't really have a point, just fixing the math a little.
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pdxmike

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #662 on: April 26, 2019, 09:17:50 PM »
The whole percentages issue started with Area 10's comment about Great Britain wanting to "respect the democratic choice of the US population".  That's a totally legitimate phrase to use, but in some sense (any sense beyond viewing it as "the winner of the election) it's not a meaningful concept.  Even restricting the results to actual voters who voted, the majority chose someone else.  And even if the results were flipped, and Trump had won the popular vote, it still shows a split country.  Add to that that millions of people (maybe most voters) who voted for Clinton or Trump may have not particularly liked the person or policies of the person the voted for, they just disliked them less than the other one.  The result is that the fact that someone won the the election doesn't say a lot more than that they won the election.  That might not be true in the case of a landslide victory, where who won might be viewed as saying a lot about the U.S. as a whole, but even then the landslide might be due to the loser being a weak option versus the winner being actually popular.


It reminds me of "red" and "blue" states.  Certainly some are overwhelmingly Republican or Democratic.  Most are not.  Nearly half the voters in many of them voted for the other party. More Californians voted for Trump than in all but two states (see chart of state-by-state results halfway down):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election


Coloring states red or blue makes an easy-to-read graphic that has value, but only to a point.  Reading much more into it than which party won the presidential election in that state may not be wise.



Area 10

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #663 on: April 27, 2019, 12:42:47 AM »
Regardless of your opinion on opinion polls, with a healthy dose of skepticism Biden has a comfortable lead. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
Are the Dems *sure* that this is their guy - or just sure in the way they were about H. Clinton?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/03/joe-biden-policies-are-as-troubling-as-his-inappropriate-touching

Is being “not Trump” enough? What positive features has this slightly weird, very old, thoroughly establishment white guy got going for him?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/26/joe-biden-is-the-hillary-clinton-of-2020-and-it-wont-end-well-this-time-either

How is this guy going to appeal to female voters, or people not like him (old, white, privileged)? Is there really any point going after the older white male vote? Surely if someone voted for Trump last time, they will do so again.

From the perspective of an outsider viewing the US political situation, the elephant in the room is racial tension.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/apr/26/black-women-voters-democrats-presidential-2020-african-american

Here’s Elizabeth Warren showing how you can sell a positive view of the future that speaks to people’s concerns (rather than just saying “I am not Trump” and hoping that will be enough):

https://youtu.be/TouKZX_w16M
« Last Edit: April 27, 2019, 01:11:20 AM by Area 10 »

Admin

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #664 on: April 27, 2019, 05:17:10 AM »
Are the Dems *sure* that this is their guy - or just sure in the way they were about H. Clinton?

Hillary had unlikables that rivaled Trumps.  She had a ton of baggage and forced herself on the party.  Biden was polling at the top with voters before he ever entered the race.  His baggage is non existent.  Anita Hill?  Hair sniffing?  He beats Trump in all polls including Fox.  People fondly look back at the sanity of the Obama years. 

Trump has cleverly named him Sleepy Joe (which is actually already taken by decaf, shot of Rum, shot of Rye).  I'll go with Barack O'Biden  and be done with it.

It bugs me that we Dems keep pounding the popular vote issue.  We say it like it means we won.  In reality, it means that we picked a candidate that played stupidly.  A weakness is not a strength.  It worries me that we will make the same mistake again.  Nothing is changing with the electoral college.  Joe  will win all those places that Obama had won but that Hillary lost (forgot to visit many).  Barack credits Joe for bringing him those states.  He also calls him his single best political decision.
« Last Edit: April 27, 2019, 05:27:01 AM by Admin »

spirit4earth

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #665 on: April 27, 2019, 07:32:18 AM »

No need to fear disrespecting the democratic choice of the US population.  Only a small percentage of citizens, overall, voted for trump.  Please, have massive protests, and feel free to keep him there.

Since when is just under 50% Only a small percentage ???   I don't think the big cities should choose who runs the country.  He won the electoral college because he campaigned hard in every state he had a chance of winning.   
   I got to keep 3% more of my pay this year,  and I made more money due to the good economy.     Lets get out there and protest !
I was referring, as I said, to the % that voted for trump.  That % was around 26.
I think the voters should get to choose the president, as I’ve said before, one person/one vote, period.
Do you know a big part of how the economy is growing?  An increase in minimum wage jobs.  More people getting $7.25/hr.  Glad you benefited from that.

spirit4earth

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #666 on: April 27, 2019, 07:33:34 AM »
This was the vote tally:

Clinton: 65,844,610 (48.2%)
Trump: 62,979,636 (46.1%)
Others: 7,804,213 (5.7%)

(https://www.dailywire.com/news/11777/how-many-votes-did-trump-and-clinton-get-final-james-barrett)

There are approximately 327 million US citizens. So, technically, only around 19% of US citizens voted for Trump.

Or to put it another way, 81% of US citizens did *not* vote for Trump.

I think that is what spirit4earth meant.

Yes, thank you.

surfinJ

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #667 on: April 27, 2019, 09:53:53 AM »
In surveys of the worlds democracies, in a measure of those eligible voters who do vote in a given country, the US regularly finishs at the bottom of the 126 or so lands.

In the Trump win more than half the Americans did not use their vote.
If the president is chosen by less than 25% of the voters does the democracy work?

paddlinglass

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #668 on: April 27, 2019, 10:26:40 AM »
Highly recommend Jimmy Dore on Youtube for insight into politics you won't get many other places.

FYI, he spends the majority of time railing against the DNC and msm.

spirit4earth

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #669 on: April 27, 2019, 10:32:50 AM »
In surveys of the worlds democracies, in a measure of those eligible voters who do vote in a given country, the US regularly finishs at the bottom of the 126 or so lands.

In the Trump win more than half the Americans did not use their vote.
If the president is chosen by less than 25% of the voters does the democracy work?

I don’t see how.  Why don’t more people vote?  I really think if Election Day were a national holiday, and I think it should be, we might get some more participants.  As it is, though, some people just cannot squeeze in a trip to their polling station.

Area 10

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #670 on: April 27, 2019, 11:19:02 AM »
In surveys of the worlds democracies, in a measure of those eligible voters who do vote in a given country, the US regularly finishs at the bottom of the 126 or so lands.

In the Trump win more than half the Americans did not use their vote.
If the president is chosen by less than 25% of the voters does the democracy work?

I don’t see how.  Why don’t more people vote?  I really think if Election Day were a national holiday, and I think it should be, we might get some more participants.  As it is, though, some people just cannot squeeze in a trip to their polling station.
Yes, well, that’s exactly what the rich gits in charge want - to prevent the plebs from voting. Then they can keep ripping you off. Make it law that employers have to give time off for voting, at no cost to the employee.

Admin

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #671 on: April 27, 2019, 11:33:15 AM »
In surveys of the worlds democracies, in a measure of those eligible voters who do vote in a given country, the US regularly finishs at the bottom of the 126 or so lands.

In the Trump win more than half the Americans did not use their vote.
If the president is chosen by less than 25% of the voters does the democracy work?

Why don’t more people vote? 

The electoral college plays into it.  In most states the viewpoint is that it really won't matter as the state is for all practical purposes already decided, so many stay home.  There are very few swing states.  I am not promoting this but it is a fact that plays into low turnout. 

pdxmike

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #672 on: April 27, 2019, 11:55:52 AM »
In surveys of the worlds democracies, in a measure of those eligible voters who do vote in a given country, the US regularly finishs at the bottom of the 126 or so lands.

In the Trump win more than half the Americans did not use their vote.
If the president is chosen by less than 25% of the voters does the democracy work?

Why don’t more people vote? 

The electoral college plays into it.  In most states the viewpoint is that it really won't matter as the state is for all practical purposes already decided, so many stay home.  There are very few swing states.  I am not promoting this but it is a fact that plays into low turnout.
I hadn't thought of that--good point. In a state where all the electoral votes go to the winner, and it's assumed 1,000,000 people will vote for the winner, there's no point in voting for the other candidate unless there will be at least 1,000,000 votes for them.  A 1,000,000 to 999,999 result is the same as a 1,000,000 to 0 result.  999,999 votes are wasted.

In regard to turnout, Oregon solved the logistical impediments to voting by going to voting by mail.  Once you've done that, the idea of going somewhere to vote seems primitive, like going to the video store to rent a video.

eastbound

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #673 on: April 27, 2019, 01:18:18 PM »

No need to fear disrespecting the democratic choice of the US population.  Only a small percentage of citizens, overall, voted for trump.  Please, have massive protests, and feel free to keep him there.

Since when is just under 50% Only a small percentage ???   I don't think the big cities should choose who runs the country.  He won the electoral college because he campaigned hard in every state he had a chance of winning.   
   I got to keep 3% more of my pay this year,  and I made more money due to the good economy.     Lets get out there and protest !

what biz are you in and what tax bracket? you aint working class, that's for sure
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eastbound

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #674 on: April 27, 2019, 01:22:17 PM »
i like that--vote by mail--just googled--why not in all states--and it's not data based, so not hackable by the russians or whomever

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vote-by-mail_in_Oregon

makes utter sense

fix that and the bogus right to vote laws
« Last Edit: April 27, 2019, 01:27:45 PM by eastbound »
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