Poll

This is a uniquely informed and diverse group to survey on any question, most definitely this one.  At this point, for whom would you cast your ballot?

Trump
19 (46.3%)
Biden
9 (22%)
Sanders
8 (19.5%)
Booker
4 (9.8%)
Klobuchar
1 (2.4%)

Total Members Voted: 41

Voting closed: March 21, 2019, 04:39:47 PM

Author Topic: 2020 Vision  (Read 40235 times)

surf4food

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #570 on: April 17, 2019, 11:42:45 AM »
Well if AI really does get to the point where a universal basic income becomes a serious possibility, then I fear we will collapse and descend into real chaos.  Possibly a genuine civil war or just complete anarchy.  I am in favor of it personally.  It simply is unfair and immoral to expect people displaced due to no fault of their own to just suck it up and accept their fate while those more fortunate get to go on and happily live their lives.  That being said, there is no way there won't be violent resistance if it really gets to that point.  As stated before, many of those who are working are not going to be happy with their tax dollars supplementing the disenfranchised.   I don't have an answer and I don't think anyone does.  We just have to wait and see and hope for the best.

Area 10

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #571 on: April 17, 2019, 11:55:33 AM »
Well if AI really does get to the point where a universal basic income becomes a serious possibility, then I fear we will collapse and descend into real chaos.  Possibly a genuine civil war or just complete anarchy.  I am in favor of it personally.  It simply is unfair and immoral to expect people displaced due to no fault of their own to just suck it up and accept their fate while those more fortunate get to go on and happily live their lives.  That being said, there is no way there won't be violent resistance if it really gets to that point.  As stated before, many of those who are working are not going to be happy with their tax dollars supplementing the disenfranchised.   I don't have an answer and I don't think anyone does.  We just have to wait and see and hope for the best.
You’ve already stated the answer.

If you are one of the fortunate few who have been born with the right genes and/or have been surrounded by the right people, maybe you might have to accept a more Christian attitude to those less fortunate - as much out of self-preservation as principle. You never know, it might even become fashionable to be kind and generous to others...

But I think robots and AI will create as many jobs as they replace. We’ll just make even more stuff, even faster and cheaper. So I sure hope that the Cobra factory in Thailand start using robots to make SUPs, because boards sure could do with being cheaper and better made :)

surf4food

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #572 on: April 17, 2019, 11:56:05 AM »


The picture you guys paint of living in the US is pretty off-putting to foreigners like me. You seem to distrust your government, and believe that politics has become fundamentally corrupted by money. You describe a country where some random misfortune like illness can leave you destitute, and there will be little sympathy for you or places to turn. You describe a country where the dollar is king, and belief in the possibility of decent people to rise to the top is almost gone. You have elected a leader who displays some truly abhorrent personal qualities (as even acknowledged by his supporters), but it nevertheless seems likely that he will be elected again. And you cling, cognitive-dissonance-like to beliefs about what is good and reasonable in terms of economics (eg. with your healthcare system) despite openly giving evidence of its punitive effects upon you personally. You also seem afraid of the outside world, despite having armed forces that are so ludicrously larger than any other country that it is almost comical.

All this, and yet you seem unwilling to countenance anything that would amount to real change. You aren’t even willing to dip your toe into fresh ways of thinking. Because, it seems, that doing anything except what you are currently doing is regarded as somehow “unamerican”. What a crock of sh*t. If you were judging another country you’d call this a heady mix of learned helplessness and brainwashing.

I hope I am wrong.

You are wrong and right.  There ARE Americans who would agree with you 100% and many others not at all and any and all variations in between.  Also, the U.S. is a very big and diverse country.  Also consider it's history of how it came into being (the so called "protestant work ethic) plays a huge role in the mentality of how one should obtain wealth or at least a comfortable living.  Not saying it's right or wrong but it is what it is and has shaped our culture.   Sadly I encounter a significate # of people who make it very clear they do have a disdain for the less fortunate and are not fans of their tax dollars helping them.   
« Last Edit: April 17, 2019, 11:58:12 AM by surf4food »

Bean

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #573 on: April 17, 2019, 12:39:08 PM »
My point was that AI will only be a problem if you follow the same taxation and social/welfare policies as you do now.

Yes, social order in general will adapt as it always has.  For instnace, in the long run, AI might make healthcare more affordable.  But, in the near term, as AI is incorporated (for instance in radiology), it will likely increase the cost.

Anyone remember back in the early 90's when tele-radiology hit the scene? 

A radiologist in NYC could confer on a complex issue with a colleague in London, or cover routine cases for remote hospitals.  While these advancements were great from a clinical perspective, they did little to reduce the cost.  Not only that, but utilization went up from the low 40's in the mid 90's to over 120 per 1000 patients...

pdxmike

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #574 on: April 17, 2019, 12:46:04 PM »


The picture you guys paint of living in the US is pretty off-putting to foreigners like me. You seem to distrust your government, and believe that politics has become fundamentally corrupted by money. You describe a country where some random misfortune like illness can leave you destitute, and there will be little sympathy for you or places to turn. You describe a country where the dollar is king, and belief in the possibility of decent people to rise to the top is almost gone. You have elected a leader who displays some truly abhorrent personal qualities (as even acknowledged by his supporters), but it nevertheless seems likely that he will be elected again. And you cling, cognitive-dissonance-like to beliefs about what is good and reasonable in terms of economics (eg. with your healthcare system) despite openly giving evidence of its punitive effects upon you personally. You also seem afraid of the outside world, despite having armed forces that are so ludicrously larger than any other country that it is almost comical.

All this, and yet you seem unwilling to countenance anything that would amount to real change. You aren’t even willing to dip your toe into fresh ways of thinking. Because, it seems, that doing anything except what you are currently doing is regarded as somehow “unamerican”. What a crock of sh*t. If you were judging another country you’d call this a heady mix of learned helplessness and brainwashing.

I hope I am wrong.

You are wrong and right.  There ARE Americans who would agree with you 100% and many others not at all and any and all variations in between.  Also, the U.S. is a very big and diverse country.  Also consider it's history of how it came into being (the so called "protestant work ethic) plays a huge role in the mentality of how one should obtain wealth or at least a comfortable living.  Not saying it's right or wrong but it is what it is and has shaped our culture.   Sadly I encounter a significate # of people who make it very clear they do have a disdain for the less fortunate and are not fans of their tax dollars helping them.
Yes, and beyond that the current president lost the popular vote by several million votes, against a candidate who was unpopular herself.  And half the voters didn't vote at all (maybe a problem in itself, or maybe it's best they don't vote).  So less than a quarter of voters voted for him.  So any generalizations based on the election results need to factor all that in.

PonoBill

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #575 on: April 18, 2019, 01:26:13 AM »
Admin definitely gets it, the change isn't some robot banging nails and laying bricks. It's wholesale replacement of both physical and cognitive labor. Amazon employs a lot of people, but it has displaced far more than it replaced. All the see-through malls make that very clear. The model they deploy makes automation of most of the transaction chain very easy. their complex pricing models probably already have some machine learning optimization--it's an ideal max-min problem with plenty of data. And as they build more machine learning into their systems the need for high level employees will decline rapidly. In the short term there's lots of low-hanging fruit. In the long term, I can't really think of a living wage job that is invulnerable.

The issue doesn't represent some inevitable Armageddon, it's a problem that requires forethought to solve. And it will likely drive major changes in society that most people will ignore while it rolls over and around them. As it is, the perceptions of most of the people I encounter seem to be locked somewhere between 1970 and 1990 as far as international economics, trends, and technology are concerned. I'm still hearing people say that overpopulation is a threat.
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Area 10

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #576 on: April 18, 2019, 04:13:54 AM »
“ I can't really think of a living wage job that is invulnerable“.

It took me about 1 second to come up with: Care Workers.

Pretty much anything that involves empathy or strong connections with others, or work with vulnerable groups, will be fine.

People will still want to be around people. You can automatise all your tills if you want to, and have a robot serve the coffee, but everyone will still go to the friendly traditional family coffee shop across the road.

This is just the next stage in the move from a manufacturing economy to a service one.

Who’d have thought, 20 years ago, that people would pay huge sums for bottles of water, and extraordinary prices for cups of coffee pretty much the same as they could make at home for a fraction of the cost. Humans are increasingly paying for “experiences” rather than merely products. Few of those experiences can be generated by AI or robots. Even computer games are only really successful if there is a social component to it. Humans are intensely social creatures, but your vision for the future, where AI and robots have hollowed out the lives of half the population, assumes that that half won’t become an economy in themselves. All that will happen is that we will have swapped bricklayers for beauty therapists, and delivery drivers for personal trainers. In the same way that 20 years ago a high street might have one cafe, but it now has a gazillion Starbucks etc. The rise of coffee shops doesn’t really make any economic sense, and nor will the fact that in 30 years everyone will not only have a dentist and a doctor, but also a personal trainer, beautician, life coach, therapist, etc. The more you try to remove people from a person’s day to day contact list (including in the workplace), and the cheaper you make “stuff”, the more people will find ways of spending money on putting that social contact and social validation back in. And they’ll be jobs in that.

But for sure, if you have kids, try to teach them good social skills, and encourage creative and sporting activities.

And it is right that we think about this stuff. It is encouraging that rich older people like you are doing so, despite the fact that it won’t impact much upon you.

spirit4earth

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #577 on: April 18, 2019, 08:08:15 AM »
“ I can't really think of a living wage job that is invulnerable“.

It took me about 1 second to come up with: Care Workers.

I know that “care workers” covers a broad swath, but I can tell you that it isn’t a living wage job.  On the Nursing Assistant, Medical Assistant, etc end of things, we are not paid a living wage.  I believe this is because these positions, direct patient that is licensed but not an RN, have traditionally been women’s jobs.  They aren’t valued, or, the value is not reflected in the check.  I can watch three “maintenance men” come to investigate a malfunctioning electrical socket, knowing they are each making ~$20/hr.  A poor use of labor, but traditionally a male-occupied position.  Over time, these traditions have dictated pay rates. 
Given our skill level (which is much higher than people think), the facts that we are licensed and have multiple yearly recertifications, care workers should be paid much more than we are.  I could get paid more at Whole Foods.  Why not work there, you ask?  Unfortunately there are no open positions where I live.

Area 10

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #578 on: April 18, 2019, 08:34:51 AM »
“ I can't really think of a living wage job that is invulnerable“.

It took me about 1 second to come up with: Care Workers.

I know that “care workers” covers a broad swath, but I can tell you that it isn’t a living wage job.  On the Nursing Assistant, Medical Assistant, etc end of things, we are not paid a living wage.  I believe this is because these positions, direct patient that is licensed but not an RN, have traditionally been women’s jobs.  They aren’t valued, or, the value is not reflected in the check.  I can watch three “maintenance men” come to investigate a malfunctioning electrical socket, knowing they are each making ~$20/hr.  A poor use of labor, but traditionally a male-occupied position.  Over time, these traditions have dictated pay rates. 
Given our skill level (which is much higher than people think), the facts that we are licensed and have multiple yearly recertifications, care workers should be paid much more than we are.  I could get paid more at Whole Foods.  Why not work there, you ask?  Unfortunately there are no open positions where I live.
Sorry, this is clearly a cross-cultural difference in terms: in the UK the phrase “Living Wage” has status in employment law:

https://www.employmentlaws.co.uk/guide/national_minimum_wage.html

It is different from the Minimum Wage, which is another employment law term. Many nursing staff and other healthcare workers will earn the Living Wage (and some the minimum wage).

And yes, I know all about the wages of care workers. At the start of my career I worked in various care staff roles for several years, earning minimum wage or not much more. It is IMO shameful that people so skilled and who contribute so much to society are paid so little.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2019, 08:40:11 AM by Area 10 »

SaMoSUP

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #579 on: April 18, 2019, 08:39:06 AM »
I like this guy...Andrew Yang. He's articulate, stats based, and solutions focused. He's getting support from left & right, pro/anti Trump, etc. 

Did well in his recent Town Hall. There's also a more in-depth conversation with Joe Rogan that's worth a listen.






Area 10

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #580 on: April 18, 2019, 09:53:08 AM »
Yang’s suggestion of giving every US adult 1000 dollars a month is certainly bold, and would be the kind of bomb under the swamp that would really make a difference. But surely that’s a bit too... dare I mention the “S” word - for US voters?

Gotta love the phrase “freedom dividend” though - in a huge attempt to make it sound not at all like the S word, but much more “ultra-capitalist”.

Then also have free healthcare for certain forms of low-paid but highly-valued workers (e.g. healthcare workers, teaching assistants etc) and you might just transform the economy in a very positive way, and reduce crime etc too.

I notice that no-one has any real idea how to get Amazon to pay their fair share of taxes though.

SaMoSUP

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #581 on: April 18, 2019, 10:04:53 AM »
The freedom dividend to be funded by the tech companies that are displacing jobs via value added tax, ie. Amazon.

RideTheGlide

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #582 on: April 18, 2019, 10:16:40 AM »
I am a believer in basic income.

http://www.marshallbrain.com/basic-income.htm

and of course the recently trending Rutger Bregman:
https://www.businessinsider.com/basic-income-ted-talk-rutger-bregman-2017-5

The linked video from the article is pretty good. If you are against basic income, you don't want to debate him.
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Area 10

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #583 on: April 18, 2019, 10:22:13 AM »
The turn this thread has taken is actually quite funny: “Robots turned me into a socialist”. :) :)

Bean

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #584 on: April 18, 2019, 10:34:19 AM »
The irony would be that under socialism, the machines would get the profits (the workers own the means of production). ;D

 


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