Poll

This is a uniquely informed and diverse group to survey on any question, most definitely this one.  At this point, for whom would you cast your ballot?

Trump
19 (46.3%)
Biden
9 (22%)
Sanders
8 (19.5%)
Booker
4 (9.8%)
Klobuchar
1 (2.4%)

Total Members Voted: 41

Voting closed: March 21, 2019, 04:39:47 PM

Author Topic: 2020 Vision  (Read 123992 times)

jpeter

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #285 on: March 08, 2019, 11:24:40 AM »
Fair competition is what drives productivity and ingenuity.  We have always been an immigrant nation.  Illegal immigration has been down for 11 years by all reliable metrics.  Where is the increase in wages?  Let's just call it self-rationalized fear of change.  Change in the color of our country, change in the replacement of human jobs by automation, change in our condiments.

First statistic I find:  https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/frequently-requested-statistics-immigrants-and-immigration-united-states

There have been ebbs and flows to our immigration rate.   In the early 1900's thru some time in the 1960's,  VERY few immigrants came in.   Look at 1960's to present and the rate is high.  JP

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #286 on: March 08, 2019, 11:47:11 AM »
As I mentioned, Illegal immigration has been down for the past 11 years.  http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/28/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/ .  The same is true of illegal immigrants in the workforce and labor force numbers.  There has been no corresponding increase in wages.  What you believe is contradicted by all fact. 

jpeter

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #287 on: March 08, 2019, 01:09:45 PM »
As I mentioned, Illegal immigration has been down for the past 11 years.  http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/28/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/ .  The same is true of illegal immigrants in the workforce and labor force numbers.  There has been no corresponding increase in wages.  What you believe is contradicted by all fact.

Note that the big drop you speak of corresponds to the US economy going into near depression.  i.e. they went back home due to lack of jobs here.  At the same time,  The number of US citizens receiving gvmt assistance increased by alot.  Look at ssdi alone:  https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-09/number-us-citizens-disability-now-larger-population-greece

I'm done here,  not going to argue with the moderator anymore.   

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #288 on: March 08, 2019, 01:54:33 PM »
Illegal immigration has been in decline for 10 years past the recession.  Statistically the period of economic growth (not recession) that we have been in is actually long and at the end of its cycle.  Have you been moderated here?  Has anyone ever been moderated for a political point?  They haven't. 

jpeter

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #289 on: March 08, 2019, 04:50:12 PM »
Illegal immigration has been in decline for 10 years past the recession.  Statistically the period of economic growth (not recession) that we have been in is actually long and at the end of its cycle.  Have you been moderated here?  Has anyone ever been moderated for a political point?  They haven't.
Have a sense of humor, well maybe mine isn't so good.

I wrote:  I'm done, not going to argue with the moderator anymore. 
Thinking that your name Admin means that you run this board,  you would be moderator. 

surf4food

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #290 on: March 08, 2019, 11:52:41 PM »
Quick, I am not disputing anything. I am just saying you’re full of Bull Shit. That story doesen’t pass the smell test. You can do better! I have faith in you.
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Admin

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #291 on: March 09, 2019, 01:26:46 AM »
Illegal immigration has been in decline for 10 years past the recession.  Statistically the period of economic growth (not recession) that we have been in is actually long and at the end of its cycle.  Have you been moderated here?  Has anyone ever been moderated for a political point?  They haven't.
Have a sense of humor, well maybe mine isn't so good.

I wrote:  I'm done, not going to argue with the moderator anymore. 
Thinking that your name Admin means that you run this board,  you would be moderator.

I am actually moderate (moderater than many). Certainly by today's standards.  A lot of us have to vote pretty far from our politics due to the choices on the ballot.  Post assured, you may be disagreed with but you won't be moderated based on a political opinion. 

Area 10

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #292 on: March 09, 2019, 01:29:22 AM »
Here’s an interesting fact check article about Trump’s claims about immigration from 2017.

https://www.npr.org/2017/08/04/541321716/fact-check-have-low-skilled-immigrants-taken-american-jobs?t=1552119923480

An interesting factoid from this:

“The share of the population that's foreign born today is about the same as the late 1800s and early 1900s, according to the U.S. Census”.

But presumably the origin of these foreign born people is different?

It also contains this: “an open letter signed by 1,470 economists argued that "the benefits that immigration brings to society far outweigh their costs, and smart immigration policy could better maximize the benefits of immigration while reducing the costs."

Here’s the letter:

https://www.newamericaneconomy.org/feature/an-open-letter-from-1470-economists-on-immigration/

It says: “Immigration undoubtedly has economic costs as well, particularly for Americans in certain industries and Americans with lower levels of educational attainment. But the benefits that immigration brings to society far outweigh their costs, and smart immigration policy could better maximize the benefits of immigration while reducing the costs”.

So could it be that the effect of immigration on the US economy is a similar situation to here in the UK, where it might be the case that certain categories of worker are impacted negatively by immigration (of all sorts), but that most people benefit (because it is good for the economy overall)?

Might this explain why some citizens are so anti-immigration, while others are not?

There are of course separate issues to consider in relation to legal vs. illegal immigration also.

Mostly here in the UK we are more worried about the long-term impact of automatisation/robots and AI on jobs, and the move from a manufacturing economy to a service one (which might favour people with different skills sets). We see this as a far bigger and more troublesome threat than immigration. However there is also a discussion around whether the availability of cheap foreign labour has encouraged businesses to avoid investment in more efficient methods, and has therefore led to our relatively low productivity. There are also specific issues about cultural change surrounding the unequal distributions of immigrants and asylum seekers across the nation. There are some pockets of the UK where the local population have seen substantial influxes of particular foreign-born groups, and this has led to a change in the hard-to-define “cultural flavour” of the area. To some this is welcome, but others find it hard to adjust to. Other regions have not seen such changes but there is a strong fear that it might happen. These issues very directly contributed to Brexit, which is the UK’s version of the Trump phenomenon.

As someone who has lived in areas which have seen recent change like this, and also others where the fear of change is more palpable than the reality, as well as areas with established immigrant populations, I can see all sides: concerns from some sections of society that immigration etc is impacting upon them in multiple ways (some of which might be justified and others that are more about perception or fear than reality), and the economic claims from others (usually those in higher-skilled jobs or industries) that immigration and a ready supply of labour is good for them and the economy overall.

It’s a pretty toxic argument. I don’t think we are going to detoxify it by not acknowledging the impact (real or feared) upon some sections of society. And it’s all become bound up with vicious arguments about racism, when it should be able to be discussed dispassionately in relation to cultural norms and economics. Perhaps certain areas and population groups might need more help than others to deal with the large-scale changes that are going to come from macro-level economic and industrial changes. Part of that relates to immigration. But the weaponisation of the language by certain vested interests, and the polarisation of the populace is making that ever more difficult to achieve.

RideTheGlide

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #293 on: March 09, 2019, 05:59:22 AM »
Illegal immigration has been in decline for 10 years past the recession.  Statistically the period of economic growth (not recession) that we have been in is actually long and at the end of its cycle.  Have you been moderated here?  Has anyone ever been moderated for a political point?  They haven't.
Have a sense of humor, well maybe mine isn't so good.

I wrote:  I'm done, not going to argue with the moderator anymore. 
Thinking that your name Admin means that you run this board,  you would be moderator.

I am actually moderate (moderater than many). Certainly by today's standards.  A lot of us have to vote pretty far from our politics due to the choices on the ballot.  Post assured, you may be disagreed with but you won't be moderated based on a political opinion.

We have been largely in agreement on this thread. But if we had a disagreement, even though I have only been here a short while, I have learned what your kryptonite is...

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Wetstuff

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #294 on: March 09, 2019, 08:09:02 AM »
10,  There is kinda of a current surge if you need a talking point.  The 'totally ignored' impact is from the 12-20 million that are here working in service industries, including cleaning the loo for famous rich people.  These are totally disposable humans.  Cut your self in a meat plant, or fall off a construction ladder and you're told; "Get the F' out of here before I call la migre."  There even a reported 1/2-million Irish in NY and Boston about to pour you green beer.   

They created a law —2007— with a glossy cover page saying employers must check status, but pg. 2-20 are blank. We have large green/white INS buses that have basically sat idle for years about a mile from me, when virtually every chicken plant, farmer, service industry and many individuals hire them. (they could work 24/7 for a few years just in this area) Typically, illegals make great employees - perhaps, partially, because at all times the ground they stand on is a trap door.

There is no solution Right or Left; they both have too much to gain.

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Area 10

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #295 on: March 09, 2019, 11:04:17 AM »
Wetstuff - thanks for that very clear and very sad picture. You guys have clearly got it a lot worse than we have in the UK. What do you think would happen to the labour market, and US business, if all those undocumented workers you refer to were somehow magically repatriated to their original countries tomorrow?

eastbound

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #296 on: March 09, 2019, 11:04:52 AM »
powers that be always benefited from lax enforcement of immigration laws--that's what got us here

strong laws provide basis for the trap door for any who get uppity cuz they lost a lousy finger or an eye or some shit

while the rest of em behave and keep their heads down, such that program provides infinite supply of highly compliant low-cost workers--good business

any mystery why they work in toxic dangerous industries like meat processing, and agriculture??

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #297 on: March 09, 2019, 11:50:20 AM »
powers that be always benefited from lax enforcement of immigration laws--that's what got us here

strong laws provide basis for the trap door for any who get uppity cuz they lost a lousy finger or an eye or some shit

while the rest of em behave and keep their heads down, such that program provides infinite supply of highly compliant low-cost workers--good business

any mystery why they work in toxic dangerous industries like meat processing, and agriculture??
I’m
I’m afraid you’ll have to explain to a foreigner (me) why it is that you apparently blame your government for this situation, rather than the unscrupulous business owners who employ the undocumented workers and mistreat them?

spirit4earth

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #298 on: March 09, 2019, 12:16:11 PM »
powers that be always benefited from lax enforcement of immigration laws--that's what got us here

strong laws provide basis for the trap door for any who get uppity cuz they lost a lousy finger or an eye or some shit

while the rest of em behave and keep their heads down, such that program provides infinite supply of highly compliant low-cost workers--good business

any mystery why they work in toxic dangerous industries like meat processing, and agriculture??
I’m
I’m afraid you’ll have to explain to a foreigner (me) why it is that you apparently blame your government for this situation, rather than the unscrupulous business owners who employ the undocumented workers and mistreat them?

The government comes into play when they don’t enforce OSHA laws.  The illegal immigrants can’t report OSHA violations or hazardous workplaces or not getting paid for overtime, etc because they fear deportation.
If all the illegal immigrant workers in this country disappeared, the majority of those empty jobs would not be filled by unemployed Americans.  There’s no way to know this as a fact, but given that American workers expect to be paid overtime, and get health insurance (or at least Worker’s Comp, which illegals are not covered by), then employers would have to really revamp their businesses.  Of course they would rather hire from the pool of hard-working illegals!  It saves them money, and it gets them employees who will work their asses off.

Area 10

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #299 on: March 09, 2019, 01:12:27 PM »
powers that be always benefited from lax enforcement of immigration laws--that's what got us here

strong laws provide basis for the trap door for any who get uppity cuz they lost a lousy finger or an eye or some shit

while the rest of em behave and keep their heads down, such that program provides infinite supply of highly compliant low-cost workers--good business

any mystery why they work in toxic dangerous industries like meat processing, and agriculture??
I’m
I’m afraid you’ll have to explain to a foreigner (me) why it is that you apparently blame your government for this situation, rather than the unscrupulous business owners who employ the undocumented workers and mistreat them?

The government comes into play when they don’t enforce OSHA laws.  The illegal immigrants can’t report OSHA violations or hazardous workplaces or not getting paid for overtime, etc because they fear deportation.
If all the illegal immigrant workers in this country disappeared, the majority of those empty jobs would not be filled by unemployed Americans.  There’s no way to know this as a fact, but given that American workers expect to be paid overtime, and get health insurance (or at least Worker’s Comp, which illegals are not covered by), then employers would have to really revamp their businesses.  Of course they would rather hire from the pool of hard-working illegals!  It saves them money, and it gets them employees who will work their asses off.
But the source of the problem is the businesses and the business leaders, not the government. What you are doing here sounds to an outsider like the equivalent of blaming the police for crime: “if only the police did their jobs then there wouldn’t be any crime”. The chief responsibility lies with the criminals not the police. And the main responsibility for exploitation of undocumented workers is surely the people who are hiring and exploiting them? I suspect that there’s an inherent “pro-business” and “anti-government” mindset at work. It might be a cultural difference: In the UK we’d see, in the situation described, the CEO of the company as chiefly responsible for the exploitation not the government officers who are supposed to catch him.

On the other point - what would happen if the businesses couldn’t employ undocumented workers, I suspect two things would happen. Some companies would invest in new technologies to reduce the need for such a large workforce.  And others would move their operations overseas to a source of cheap labour. Neither of these outcomes would make the labour market any better for “born-in-the-USA” workers. Does that sound plausible?





 


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