Poll

This is a uniquely informed and diverse group to survey on any question, most definitely this one.  At this point, for whom would you cast your ballot?

Trump
19 (46.3%)
Biden
9 (22%)
Sanders
8 (19.5%)
Booker
4 (9.8%)
Klobuchar
1 (2.4%)

Total Members Voted: 41

Voting closed: March 21, 2019, 04:39:47 PM

Author Topic: 2020 Vision  (Read 124009 times)

PonoBill

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #75 on: February 23, 2019, 01:08:38 PM »
My comment isn't really about the value of vocational training, it's the value of big data reinforced, machine learning based education. The value of teachers used to be that they had training in how to teach, and they had access to information--stuff they had learned and whatever accompanies the materials they were teaching. What they taught students was primary information to store. How to solve a math problem, how to read and write, fundamental geography, some strange local variation on history. All of that has little value in an environment where any piece of information, almost any technique, any bit of history, anthropology, geography--in whatever depth is desired--is instantly available.

Now add to that the ability to look at every piece of data about every student, which they and their friends and family have revealed in detail, all over the web. Stir in the fact that AI is already better at understanding the thought processes of other people than humans are and you have the ability to tailor education to the mind, history, family situation, social interaction, demonstrated talents and limitations, sources and nature of errors, for every step in their life to that point and every result in the education process. And then tailor their education to precisely suit them and optimize the learning experience.

What human teacher can even approach that capability?

The cost of delivery to an incremental student. Nothing.

What is college or high school compared to that potential? Babysitting.

You might be horrified by the privacy issues of that, and the potential for abuse, but that doesn't mean it isn't a superior way to educate at a fraction of the current cost--and there's more than enough data already available--everyone spews their guts on the web.

Teacher's unions will fight tooth and nail, but where is the political power of a union when the jobs are irrelevant? Roll it out in one place and it's a virus. Who is going to let their kids plod along, getting six hours of mediocre, increasingly irrelevant education in classes with varied levels of disruption when the neighbor's kids are zooming past them without leaving the house.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2019, 01:15:24 PM by PonoBill »
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RideTheGlide

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #76 on: February 23, 2019, 02:30:53 PM »
I went all over the place but one point in there was I had online training almost 40 years ago and to one of Admin's points, I had a very specific skills assessment, though I am not sure it was shared with potential employers. Targeted teaching was in terms of what skills I needed to do that job, but not necessarily tailored to my way of learning. Being self paced was a step in the right direction for me.

Does my memory fail me or weren't you deriding displacement by technology earlier in the thread? Going to that model of education would eliminate a lot of jobs. And I think George Bernard Shaw's often misquoted, or maybe just paraphrased, bit about teachers not being able to do what they teach well might be proven wrong in this case. If the AI can teach something to someone, the AI could likely just cut out the middleman and do the job. A little redistribution so the poor don't starve, the rich end up with more than they can spend but not more than they can count and maybe a third of us are still needed to keep things running (because the nightmare sci-fi scenarios only happen if we put machines in charge).
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Beasho

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #77 on: February 23, 2019, 04:13:10 PM »
Going to that model of education would eliminate a lot of jobs.

At one point, say 400 years ago, we were all farmers.  Go back to that time and tell someone that in the future only 1 in 125 people would be a farmer.  What would they say?

When they scream "What does everybody do?"  Tell them that unemployment is only 4%.  This will make no sense . . . but here we are.

The jobs we have today are supposed to go away.  AND I would rather live in today's world where we all do "eachother's laundry", and frankly code on computers in warm houses with internet access and healthy teeth eating fresh berries in February than go back to everyone being a farmer.

Admin

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #78 on: February 23, 2019, 04:48:31 PM »
We humans are anti-entropic by nature (garages aside, this is a fact).  We seek out the maximum state of order.  The pull is strong.  We do so even when we are uncertain that is in our own best interest.  How many thought they would never pay by credit card online, bank online, watch por...(wait, what?!?).   This will eventually happen because it is simply better but as many have mentioned the status quo is the speed bump.  Less so in China where mass opinions don't count and this is already happening.  I read that AI essay grading is in place for 120 million students.  AI is producing the same grades as human profs 92 % of the time (which I read to mean that the humans only blew it 8% of the time).  AI is not essential to get this started as a free mode of higher ed but that would be silly.  This is what AI does best.  Huge data set, constantly-self updating, etc.  I would love to see a candidate push this.  Make it his/her moon shot. 

PonoBill

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #79 on: February 23, 2019, 05:04:57 PM »
I don't deride technical disruption, it's simply not without consequence. Absent some kind of ridiculous resistance I think it's inevitable. At some point, we're going to look at China's AI/ML efforts and panic. I think the confluence of AI/Machine learning and Biotech will cause an incredible disruption. What that means in the long term, I couldn't say, though I have ideas. I don't think our political systems have any idea how to deal with it. The scope of the problem makes immigration look petty. There's zero real attention being paid to the issue as far as I can see.

Beasho, for the last hundred years technology, has created more jobs than it eliminated. Will that always be so? I don't know. I do know that cognitive tasks have rarely been a target for automation because the algorithms are so hard to write. Machine learning changes that and has the obvious advantage of minimal cost to reproduce, upgradeability, and instant and accurate sharing of outcome. I keep using Radiologists because it's a complex and highly skilled undertaking requiring careful attention and precise analysis of murky visual data. Machine learning already surpasses Radiologists in the accuracy of diagnosis. Not by a little, by a big margin. What kind of skill sets will be resistant to automation? I don't know. Everything I consider seems vulnerable.
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Rider

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #80 on: February 23, 2019, 06:56:01 PM »
Wow. Thanks you guys for the insight. My next door neighbor is a good friend and a Radioligist. He doesn’t have a fricking clue what is coming his way. We’re going surfing in the morning. It’s forecast to be really good. Should I tell him before or after our surf?

PonoBill

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #81 on: February 23, 2019, 07:17:18 PM »
I bet he knows. But yeah, tell him later.
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Admin

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #82 on: February 24, 2019, 02:30:49 AM »
Wow. Thanks you guys for the insight. My next door neighbor is a good friend and a Radioligist. He doesn’t have a fricking clue what is coming his way. We’re going surfing in the morning. It’s forecast to be really good. Should I tell him before or after our surf?

He really couldn't miss it.  It is all over their journals https://pubs.rsna.org/toc/ai/current and radiologists are involved in all stages of the research. 
« Last Edit: February 24, 2019, 03:01:44 AM by Admin »

Area 10

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #83 on: February 24, 2019, 03:03:20 AM »
I think you are getting machine learning and AI a bit mixed up here. Machine learning is just a way of doing statistics, so it’s no more risky to society than any other form of statistics (which have been around for decades). AI is still pretty dumb, and you will always still need humans to teach and moderate it.

The real issue is data. Especially big data. Both ML and AI like huge amounts of data, and are useless without it. What has changed in our society is that now we are giving away (often for free) huge amounts of data about ourselves. This is where the real risk is. So, if you have a dystopian vision for our future where AI is going to ruin your life, then just campaign for confidentiality of your data. AI and ML are the garden sprinklers. Data is the water flowing through the hose. If you turn off the tap, even the smartest of AIs operated by an army of data scientists is not going to get anything done. You are worrying about the sprinklers not the tap.

Ichabod Spoonbill

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #84 on: February 24, 2019, 07:13:04 AM »
My comment isn't really about the value of vocational training, it's the value of big data reinforced, machine learning based education. The value of teachers used to be that they had training in how to teach, and they had access to information--stuff they had learned and whatever accompanies the materials they were teaching. What they taught students was primary information to store. How to solve a math problem, how to read and write, fundamental geography, some strange local variation on history. All of that has little value in an environment where any piece of information, almost any technique, any bit of history, anthropology, geography--in whatever depth is desired--is instantly available.

Now add to that the ability to look at every piece of data about every student, which they and their friends and family have revealed in detail, all over the web. Stir in the fact that AI is already better at understanding the thought processes of other people than humans are and you have the ability to tailor education to the mind, history, family situation, social interaction, demonstrated talents and limitations, sources and nature of errors, for every step in their life to that point and every result in the education process. And then tailor their education to precisely suit them and optimize the learning experience.

What human teacher can even approach that capability?

The cost of delivery to an incremental student. Nothing.

What is college or high school compared to that potential? Babysitting.

You might be horrified by the privacy issues of that, and the potential for abuse, but that doesn't mean it isn't a superior way to educate at a fraction of the current cost--and there's more than enough data already available--everyone spews their guts on the web.

Teacher's unions will fight tooth and nail, but where is the political power of a union when the jobs are irrelevant? Roll it out in one place and it's a virus. Who is going to let their kids plod along, getting six hours of mediocre, increasingly irrelevant education in classes with varied levels of disruption when the neighbor's kids are zooming past them without leaving the house.

Bill, only a small part of teaching is the transfer of information. If that were all teaching was, then we would be replaceable by machines. Teaching is part learning coach, part therapist, part parent, part cheerleader, and part information transfer. The human contact is also a critical part of the learning process, as it always has.

The studies about online academies show that students there don't learn as much as when they are in front of a teacher. There are exceptions to the rule, the first is probably you, a highly motivated learner. Many, and probably most, children need that human contact to process their own learning. That's good teaching.
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Admin

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #85 on: February 24, 2019, 07:55:29 AM »
My comment isn't really about the value of vocational training, it's the value of big data reinforced, machine learning based education. The value of teachers used to be that they had training in how to teach, and they had access to information--stuff they had learned and whatever accompanies the materials they were teaching. What they taught students was primary information to store. How to solve a math problem, how to read and write, fundamental geography, some strange local variation on history. All of that has little value in an environment where any piece of information, almost any technique, any bit of history, anthropology, geography--in whatever depth is desired--is instantly available.

Now add to that the ability to look at every piece of data about every student, which they and their friends and family have revealed in detail, all over the web. Stir in the fact that AI is already better at understanding the thought processes of other people than humans are and you have the ability to tailor education to the mind, history, family situation, social interaction, demonstrated talents and limitations, sources and nature of errors, for every step in their life to that point and every result in the education process. And then tailor their education to precisely suit them and optimize the learning experience.

What human teacher can even approach that capability?

The cost of delivery to an incremental student. Nothing.

What is college or high school compared to that potential? Babysitting.

You might be horrified by the privacy issues of that, and the potential for abuse, but that doesn't mean it isn't a superior way to educate at a fraction of the current cost--and there's more than enough data already available--everyone spews their guts on the web.

Teacher's unions will fight tooth and nail, but where is the political power of a union when the jobs are irrelevant? Roll it out in one place and it's a virus. Who is going to let their kids plod along, getting six hours of mediocre, increasingly irrelevant education in classes with varied levels of disruption when the neighbor's kids are zooming past them without leaving the house.

Bill, only a small part of teaching is the transfer of information. If that were all teaching was, then we would be replaceable by machines. Teaching is part learning coach, part therapist, part parent, part cheerleader, and part information transfer. The human contact is also a critical part of the learning process, as it always has.

The studies about online academies show that students there don't learn as much as when they are in front of a teacher. There are exceptions to the rule, the first is probably you, a highly motivated learner. Many, and probably most, children need that human contact to process their own learning. That's good teaching.

For higher education I do not see that as the case.  I went to University of Michigan.  Great school, great time but I did not have that experience in a single class.  Chan and I took classes (audited) at an online U a while back and the experience was different but also excellent.  There were source materials, required student forum time, etc. but no in person and no one on one with faculty.  Even without AI or Machine learning this could be essentially free to taxpayers and free to students. 

Learning online these days is an astounding experience.  Even entirely self-directed it is incredible.  The wealth of information, the interaction and support from those with immense experience and the variety of teaching styles on any minuscule element of a subject make it really magnificent.  It is still a very human experience (maybe moreso) although not in person.  YouTube (with offshoots) is already the most incredible university ever assembled. 


eastbound

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #86 on: February 24, 2019, 08:35:09 AM »
totally in your camp on this, icky

but who knows where our world will be in a short time?? human to human skills and the way we communicate and collaborate are changing so fast, that i wonder how much of what one gains from a typical, rigorous, realtime, onsite college education, will be of value in the professional world.

i remain a believer, and consider the serious dough i spent educating my kids to be one of the best value propositions of my life---but my kids worked their end of the deal--2 are summa/phi beta grads of top schools, one is killing it at a top school--and my last is doing the senior in HS strain to get to a good college---all of mine care deeply about their study and hard work---i am very lucky in this

the typical college approach, where a kid games the system to do the least work for the best grade, to get laid and party the most, and then expects a great job as reward???? for a cost that might consume 4 times his/her family's annual household income??    that needs to end

and when i began my career on wall st, after about a week, it was learn by doing---but this is the case in most fields---so if youre looking of specific vocational/professional training, for most professions, it'g going to be on the job, or via specific professional training courses--college does that minimally in most fields

one interesting thing for me that i find in business today, is that we communicate so much more in written text--where in the past a ceo might have dyslexia, and have it be no issue--all communication was voice or dictated to a secretary who wrote well---now even a ceo needs to be able to write coherently and effectively--often i read something these days and cast the writer, based on the quality of the writing---person cant write? he may be a tech person who doesnt need to write well, and i may know that, but my take on her goes south

text-based communications today lay bare one's writing skills, and one's education generally, and leave a permanent record of that said---to be able to write quickly and well, and transmit good ideas, IN WRITING, matters more these days than ever before--there is no votech for writing--i cant imagine an on-line writing class or any writing class, that doesnt involve a teacher discussing a student's writing with the student

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #87 on: February 24, 2019, 09:46:18 AM »
My comment isn't really about the value of vocational training, it's the value of big data reinforced, machine learning based education. The value of teachers used to be that they had training in how to teach, and they had access to information--stuff they had learned and whatever accompanies the materials they were teaching. What they taught students was primary information to store. How to solve a math problem, how to read and write, fundamental geography, some strange local variation on history. All of that has little value in an environment where any piece of information, almost any technique, any bit of history, anthropology, geography--in whatever depth is desired--is instantly available.

Now add to that the ability to look at every piece of data about every student, which they and their friends and family have revealed in detail, all over the web. Stir in the fact that AI is already better at understanding the thought processes of other people than humans are and you have the ability to tailor education to the mind, history, family situation, social interaction, demonstrated talents and limitations, sources and nature of errors, for every step in their life to that point and every result in the education process. And then tailor their education to precisely suit them and optimize the learning experience.

What human teacher can even approach that capability?

The cost of delivery to an incremental student. Nothing.

What is college or high school compared to that potential? Babysitting.

You might be horrified by the privacy issues of that, and the potential for abuse, but that doesn't mean it isn't a superior way to educate at a fraction of the current cost--and there's more than enough data already available--everyone spews their guts on the web.

Teacher's unions will fight tooth and nail, but where is the political power of a union when the jobs are irrelevant? Roll it out in one place and it's a virus. Who is going to let their kids plod along, getting six hours of mediocre, increasingly irrelevant education in classes with varied levels of disruption when the neighbor's kids are zooming past them without leaving the house.

Bill, only a small part of teaching is the transfer of information. If that were all teaching was, then we would be replaceable by machines. Teaching is part learning coach, part therapist, part parent, part cheerleader, and part information transfer. The human contact is also a critical part of the learning process, as it always has.

The studies about online academies show that students there don't learn as much as when they are in front of a teacher. There are exceptions to the rule, the first is probably you, a highly motivated learner. Many, and probably most, children need that human contact to process their own learning. That's good teaching.

For higher education I do not see that as the case.  I went to University of Michigan.  Great school, great time but I did not have that experience in a single class.  Chan and I took classes (audited) at an online U a while back and the experience was different but also excellent.  There were source materials, required student forum time, etc. but no in person and no one on one with faculty.  Even without AI or Machine learning this could be essentially free to taxpayers and free to students. 

Learning online these days is an astounding experience.  Even entirely self-directed it is incredible.  The wealth of information, the interaction and support from those with immense experience and the variety of teaching styles on any minuscule element of a subject make it really magnificent.  It is still a very human experience (maybe moreso) although not in person.  YouTube (with offshoots) is already the most incredible university ever assembled.

Admin, I'm inclined to agree with you some on higher learning. Still, I think we get a little too enthralled with our machines. All those electronic delivery systems have their place with instruction, but if teaching were only that, what a cold, cold world we would live in. Of course, with the sub-par instruction you get in many colleges, maybe electronic teaching could be better> I don't know. I will say in K–12 it's best done on a limited basis.
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PonoBill

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #88 on: February 24, 2019, 10:21:56 AM »
EB. That's the kind of thing I hear from people who haven't tried it. Take a couple of Kahn academy classes in humanities and let me know what you think. Better yet, sign up for Corsera's "Learn to learn" class and see where it takes you. But current online learning has few of the characteristics of AI/ML driven learning. Most of it relies on crowdsourcing assistance, which works extremely well in the case of Kahn and similar platforms, but isn't what online education could/likely will be.

I've talked about education with teachers, and they invariably bring up the points Ichabod does. Then I ask how many kids get that experience and what percentage of the teachers they know of actually deliver that, and the defense falters. Certainly nothing like the "part learning coach, part therapist, part parent, part cheerleader, and part information transfer." gets delivered to even a majority of kids by the majority of teachers. And that absolutely does not happen in college.

A10, I understand what you are saying about ML being just a way of doing statistics, though it certainly isn't "just" that. Statistics allows you to extract insights from data, but the model for doing that doesn't improve as you run it. ML does, hence the learning part. It's not AI, but it's also not just statistics. And really ML is all that's necessary to do what I described. ML plus AI would just do it better.

There might be a few folks that throttle their data, but with nearly 3 billion people spewing every aspect of their lives on a Facebook product and 90 percent of the world's connected population using an Alphabet product daily, their efforts are a fart in a hurricane. The current slide towards nationalism doesn't offer any global solution to privacy, which is the only way to slow progress in this direction--and that's probably just fine. I don't see these things as dystopian, I see them as different and worth thinking about.
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stoneaxe

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #89 on: February 24, 2019, 12:53:18 PM »
Bizarre...I just signed up for coursera's learn to learn this week.

I've been looking at online learning to do some stuff to help fill all the time I have. Found out I can also access Lynda through my public library....whole bunch of other online learning there also available for free.
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