Poll

This is a uniquely informed and diverse group to survey on any question, most definitely this one.  At this point, for whom would you cast your ballot?

Trump
19 (46.3%)
Biden
9 (22%)
Sanders
8 (19.5%)
Booker
4 (9.8%)
Klobuchar
1 (2.4%)

Total Members Voted: 41

Voting closed: March 21, 2019, 04:39:47 PM

Author Topic: 2020 Vision  (Read 123961 times)

PonoBill

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #45 on: February 21, 2019, 06:33:26 PM »
What's the motivation to strive to succeed if everything is handed to you free? My daughter worked her butt off in school so she could go to a good college. Good thing she got a scholarship, because we couldn't afford the schools she was applying for. She's a driven person, and earned it. I've been self-employed my whole life, and worked my butt off for 40 years straight. I never expected any handouts or free anything. Everything I have I earned.

Land of the Free means freedom of.... freedom to.... Not I want for free!

TallDude, these things like "free" healthcare or college aren't free. They're paid by taxes. It's not a handout.

Similar story: my father who was highly educated was also mentally ill, addicted, and poor. I went to some of the very best public schools, but when college came around I was screwed. There wasn't money for that, and when I tried to work for school, my father stole my earnings. The idea that working for these things works for some people, but not everybody. Deserving people are denied a good education because of circumstances beyond their control. Even if you go to night school and do that, you start off years behind your peers. It took me 15 years to get my BA, all because a situation I did not create. A few of those "free" things would have made my life much better. It would have changed my life. I know I would have had a different career.

I know there are people who might take advantage of the system, there are many who would not. I count myself in that category.
Very true; everyone does not have equal opportunities. Some of that is random, some is systemic. It's like the old adage that everyone can succeed if they work hard. There aren't enough slots open as you continue moving up. As you progress to better paying jobs, it's a triangle. There is only one desk in each McDonald's and that's just an example; there are also lots of cubes and only four corner offices in some large corporate settings.

The old adage remains true--at least currently. The open question is "how hard"? If you really want to succeed, then it takes what it takes. I just had this conversation with my daughter, who after a very late start being married to a domineering loser, years of working hard and taking risks, just landed her dream job. I told her she isn't at the finish line, she's finally made it to the start. She's going to be working full time, raising two boys as a single mom, while she is also taking advanced paramedic training. I told her she needs to knock the expectations of everyone she works for and with right out of the park. She got it. It wasn't what she wanted to hear, but she got it. How many people can do that? How many people will? She will.

Most of the serious wealth in America is inherited, but not all of it. We really do have unlimited opportunity, but that's not for everyone. Simply working three jobs won't do it, as millions of people have proven. Who takes a job at McDonalds and knocks it out of the park? The person who winds up running the joint. Most people do their best to do the least they can get by with. The suckier the job, the better you have to be to stand out. It takes what it takes.

Unfortunately, that may not be true for long, There are Radiologists graduating this year who will probably not have a job someday soon. I'd hate to have spend half my life building up an independent trucking firm to see autonomous trucks coming. "Disruptive technology" is a term few people use with any sense of dread, but it means that both physical and cognitive job functions can be replaced--and probably will be. MAGA-flavored conservatism is precisely the wrong tactic to deal with what's coming and socialism is equally devoid of solutions.

I don't see any names on that list that even have a clue. I sure hope we wind up with someone who at least understands the problems.
I respectfully disagree, Pono. There just aren't enough opportunities to go around for one thing; the math just cannot work. Then there are those with varying types and degrees of handicaps. Some people really do give it their all and still don't get the opportunity they need to better their situation.

As far as disruptive technology, the only thing I see that can work is socialistic in nature. If we develop the technology and reap the rewards, there will be less work that needs to be done. The old "protestant work ethic" - "everyone needs to earn it" - is a fine ideal but we need to face the fact that there already isn't enough work to go around. Not rolling tech out so that people can do busy work is ridiculous, but the problem with automating jobs out of existence in a capitalistic society is that the people displaced reap no benefit; just the opposite in fact. It would be one more thing aiding and abetting the concentration of wealth. We need to recognize that in the future not everyone will be able to work, at least not full time. We will have to take care of some people with no expectation that they will ever work full time. That's going to be really expensive and heavy taxes on commerce and/or those who do well is the only way to fund it. It's not because I am far left (which I freely admit) in this case. I just don't see how anything else can work, short of Neo-Luddism, which is a really bad idea.

Actually, I suspect you completely agree. You might note I said it's not for everyone. I should amend that and say its useless advice for 99.9 percent of the population. I'm not passing judgment on them, they don't see it, don't have the tools, or the drive, or the little neurological tweak.

The idea that we don't have the work to go around today is flat wrong. 7.5 million unfilled jobs--an economic catastrophe. Someday soon we will be paying people to come here to do the jobs current citizens don't have the will or the training to do. And shortly after that (timeframe unknown) millions, probably billions of jobs will go away. Socialism has no notion of how to deal with that. The fundamental tenet of socialism is that the workers have political power. If they don't have jobs, where is their power?
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Seafarer

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #46 on: February 21, 2019, 06:46:18 PM »
The total revenue of health insurance companies in the U.S. was about $1 trillion in 2018.  The budget for Medicare was a little less than $600 billion in 2018.  Think about that for a minute.  We could probably afford universal health care if we got rid of the middleman.

As for the federal deficit, it really isn't real money and everyone knows it.  With the fractional reserve system, the banks create money and loan it out to be paid back with real money, as long as they have 10% of the money they create in reserves.  Some day the whole game will blow up- what happens then is anybody's guess.  More taxes for anybody is not the answer to that problem.

PonoBill

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #47 on: February 21, 2019, 08:30:28 PM »
If you know the revenue number then you probably also know the profit/administrative cost number--I've got to wonder why you didn't mention that. Health insurers MUST pay 80 percent of their revenue in claims. The other 20 percent covers all administrative costs and profit. So yeah, maybe there are some savings, but it's not some magical number that makes everything affordable. My rough calculation (very) is that medicare for all moves the budget to something around three trillion a year. evenly distributed to taxpayers (120 million of them) that's 25,000 per year for current service level. Say I'm nuts and it's only two trillion, that's 16k per year, and you still have to pay income tax of 10k per year. Use the current graduated tax schedules and the average taxpayer's tax bill doubles. I'd say it's worth it, that's about what I pay in premiums for my wife and I and the coverage wouldn't have all those funny out of system gotchas. You might not agree, but you'd have to pay it.

Oh, and the 44 percent of adult Americans who currently pay no federal income tax will have the same coverage as you. I'm OK with that, but a lot of folks might object.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2019, 08:39:24 PM by PonoBill »
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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #48 on: February 21, 2019, 09:05:01 PM »
Pono, did not know about the 80% rule but I think that insurance has been the main reason why medical costs are so high.  It is easy for hospitals to overcharge when the patient does not feel the direct pain of that.  All I know is that I (and my employers) have been paying health insurance my whole life and I am 58 and that money has been completely wasted.  Luckily, I have only had to use it a few times for my kids for strep throat and stuff like that. I would rather pay reasonable doctor's fees and have them put me on a payment plan if I couldn't pay cash or credit.  Maybe have insurance for catastrophic expenses.  I would retire right now if it were not for the health care factor, but will probably have to work until I am 65 for medicare.  It really sucks.

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #49 on: February 21, 2019, 09:47:40 PM »
Then you have hospitals gouging Medicare because it is obviously very easy.  I saw the bills when my dad had cancer and eventually died after a couple of years treatment.  Recently saw the bills when my mom fell and broke both arms.  F'ing ridiculous.  Hospitals charging too much, Medicare paying too much. 

TallDude

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #50 on: February 21, 2019, 11:22:21 PM »
Then you have hospitals gouging Medicare because it is obviously very easy.  I saw the bills when my dad had cancer and eventually died after a couple of years treatment.  Recently saw the bills when my mom fell and broke both arms.  F'ing ridiculous.  Hospitals charging too much, Medicare paying too much.
Here's a side I'm a little involved with. I do specialized structural drawings for engineers. I've been involved with hospital expansions. The State of California has mandated that all hospitals meet new stringent seismic design standards by 2030. The costs to retrofit is crazy. So much so that they've found it's way cheaper to just built new hospitals. Hospitals have been adding new wings (if they have the space) knowing that in 10 years they won't be able to use there original hospital space. All those 20 year old and older hospitals will not be able to be used.
A wing that was just built at a near by hospital cost $200 million and took 7 years. Hospital's are very expensive and they are going to have to build a ton of new ones. We don't really have a labor force big enough to build all those hospitals. Maybe after those Millennial's get their BA's, they can go to a trade school and get a good paying job in construction. It'll help them pay
pay off their student loans on their mostly useless degrees.

http://hospitalsafetycenter.com/content/314627/topic/WS_HSC_HSC.html
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eastbound

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #51 on: February 22, 2019, 02:54:12 AM »
I’d love to get catastrophic insurance and handle my day to day (some might say with deductibles as high as they are, that’s what we have already. But wtc  catastrophic insurance isn’t available.
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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #52 on: February 22, 2019, 03:04:58 AM »
O It is way far afield from capitalism but we have strayed pretty far from true, fair, capitalism on the other side as well.

Kind of depends on what your definition of fair is as to whether or not there can be such a thing as true capitalism that's fair.

While we might not achieve perfect capitalism we can do a lot to bring it back to a more equitable state.  Is Bernie brand socialism the best way to address that inequity?  I hope not.  I would much rather see a candidate running on repair capitalism (or correct capitalism if preferred).  It is what has made America the dream worldwide.  It is is a driver and it is human nature.  But, we have proven that it requires significant oversight.  I like Bernie.  He is true believer and he has held tight for a long career.  I would have voted for him last round given the options and certainly would this time against Trump.  But it seems to me that many would vote for Bernie or a similar ideology as a corrective measure to a system that has lopsided too far rather than as a system that we would like America to resolve to.

eastbound

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #53 on: February 22, 2019, 03:34:00 AM »
current us state:  kleptocracy

dont know a progressive candidate who espouses other than to repair and properly regulate our crony capitalist economy---and to resume good civic projects and public works---capitalism is the best economic system---but unbridled by good regulation, and where we have allowed money to have power over our political system, such as now, it sucks

but even now, i prefer it in huge ways to a state-controlled economy---shit i make my livung trading capital markets all day

and i believe (hope) we can change, and get back to a system that serves all, or at least more of those who lack money and power---ie i hope our democracy can be repaired--and i hope it isnt broken beyond repair, such that crony capitalism kleptocracy will be who/what we are ongoing



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RideTheGlide

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #54 on: February 22, 2019, 05:01:33 AM »
Maybe after those Millennial's get their BA's, they can go to a trade school and get a good paying job in construction. It'll help them pay pay off their student loans on their mostly useless degrees.

There has been a steady but very slow rise in the number of people who complete degree programs. It has continued it's slow growth but hasn't seen any big jump for millenials. I think it is driven more by the number of jobs requiring it than anything else.



A primary reason it is done remains the same.



I think a big part of it is that we don't place enough value on careers as trade people.

As far as debt, education is the only common major expense that has outpaced health care, and has done so quite substantially.

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Bean

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #55 on: February 22, 2019, 07:08:18 AM »
I’d love to get catastrophic insurance and handle my day to day (some might say with deductibles as high as they are, that’s what we have already. But wtc  catastrophic insurance isn’t available.

EB, I think you can still have a self-funded plan coupled with stop loss insurance.

Years ago, I worked with a radiology practice that decided to go self insured.  Unfortunately, one of the empoyees had premature triplets that only survived 6 to 12 mos.  A devestating loss for the employee and her family and everyone that knew her in the practice, but also the end of "that" plan.

I think the natural middle ground is a high deductible plan so everyone has skin in the game.  But, the deductible amount has to be set at an appropriate level for each family.       

TallDude

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #56 on: February 22, 2019, 09:31:32 AM »
Maybe after those Millennial's get their BA's, they can go to a trade school and get a good paying job in construction. It'll help them pay pay off their student loans on their mostly useless degrees.

There has been a steady but very slow rise in the number of people who complete degree programs. It has continued it's slow growth but hasn't seen any big jump for millenials. I think it is driven more by the number of jobs requiring it than anything else.



A primary reason it is done remains the same.



I think a big part of it is that we don't place enough value on careers as trade people.

As far as debt, education is the only common major expense that has outpaced health care, and has done so quite substantially.


College is the first big cost Millennial's face in life. No credit required. Here's your college loan. College's look at careers with the largest growth or need and develop curriculum to cater to that. There was a shortage of nurses in the 90's, so the Junior College's developed an accredited 2 year RN program. The universities realized they were losing student's to these 2 year programs. So the universities banded together to create a hospital accreditation called 'Magnet Status'. They disguised it as a .ORG. In order for hospitals to achieve this magnet status, a large percentage of their RN's have to have a Bachelor's degree or higher. The hospitals offered their existing staff the opportunity pay for their continued education, but they would have to work off a portion of that cost. They lost a lot of very experienced RN's, and hired RN's with masters degree's but no experience. Did that improve the quality of health care? No. Did the hospitals achieve Magnet Status? Yes. Do those new RN's have massive college loan debt? Yes. Will they spend their whole careers repaying that debt? Yes. Will they ever be able to afford a home? Chances are low. So who win's? The universities and the hospitals.
    https://www.nursingworld.org/organizational-programs/magnet/eligibility-requirements/
 
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Subber

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #57 on: February 22, 2019, 10:28:29 AM »
College is the first big cost Millennial's face in life. No credit required. Here's your college loan. College's look at careers with the largest growth or need and develop curriculum to cater to that. There was a shortage of nurses in the 90's, so the Junior College's developed an accredited 2 year RN program. The universities realized they were losing student's to these 2 year programs. So the universities banded together to create a hospital accreditation called 'Magnet Status'. They disguised it as a .ORG. In order for hospitals to achieve this magnet status, a large percentage of their RN's have to have a Bachelor's degree or higher. The hospitals offered their existing staff the opportunity pay for their continued education, but they would have to work off a portion of that cost. They lost a lot of very experienced RN's, and hired RN's with masters degree's but no experience. Did that improve the quality of health care? No. Did the hospitals achieve Magnet Status? Yes. Do those new RN's have massive college loan debt? Yes. Will they spend their whole careers repaying that debt? Yes. Will they ever be able to afford a home? Chances are low. So who win's? The universities and the hospitals.
    https://www.nursingworld.org/organizational-programs/magnet/eligibility-requirements/

You are right on it TallDude!

So, the tax-payer funded/guaranteed student loans are the enablers for the educational and medical systems to raise tuition, raise prices, and bury people with debt - ugh.  (and a lot of times for very questionable degrees.)

To me, it is amazing how we've had such huge increases in productivity from the computer, software, internet, graphics, improved materials, manufacturing robots, etc. and yet we are further and further in debt at pretty much all levels - personal, corporate, municipal, federal, etc.  Worse, it used to be that middle class meant one working parent and one stay at home. 

With all the productivity increases over the past decades....not only do pretty much all middle class families have to now have two major income earners, they are up the wahzoo in debt.

(I would ask others here, why do they think that is?)
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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #58 on: February 22, 2019, 10:56:19 AM »
There is nothing (bar time and football aside) from a top undergrad education that could not be achieved online with the best educators, current content, peer interaction (local or online) and nearly free to taxpayers.  Is it education that college is about?  Actual learning and workplace value or some other intangible?

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Re: 2020 Vision
« Reply #59 on: February 22, 2019, 11:41:08 AM »
There is nothing (bar time and football aside) from a top undergrad education that could not be achieved online with the best educators, current content, peer interaction (local or online) and nearly free to taxpayers.  Is it education that college is about?  Actual learning and workplace value or some other intangible?

Status....name brand school...sticker in the back window of Mom's SUV.

Easily 1/2 the kids I know that had to go to a brand school didn't need it and would have done better in another setting...my own included. We believed the hype (the 1st time around anyway)....if they want to succeed it's what they need to do. My oldest is a nurse, and a very good one, but had to do it the long hard way after screwing up her 1st year in college. Our youngest, who is far more focused and practical, went to UMass  and zipped straight through. Then they recruited her directly into their masters program and paid her to do it. She has almost no debt with a masters in business (marketing) and is very happy working for a non-profit...doing exactly what she always wanted with her education.

« Last Edit: February 22, 2019, 11:49:17 AM by stoneaxe »
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