Author Topic: Why the zone has gone south  (Read 8066 times)

Admin

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Re: Why the zone has gone south
« Reply #90 on: November 07, 2018, 08:42:52 AM »
In my career as a marketer I saw firsthand the difference between companies that charged ahead during the inevitable market downturn and those who pulled back. Beyond survival vs. not (which was a big part of what I experienced) the companies that pushed hard in those times emerged with larger and persistent market share. It's tough to do, but the right thing often is, and it's obvious what the right strategy is if you look at the adoption curve for any business with a hype cycle. All sport markets are pure hype cycle. Where are your rollerblades? SUP had a suppressed upcycle because it was born in a recession. That was probably a good thing, at least we aren't seeing the stacks of crap boards in the dumpster behind the big box stores, or parking lot sales that wipe out the market for a few years.



This is a great graph for some things but it doesn't match up with what occurs in active sports.  We see the Expectation period last well beyond the initial dip.  Thus overproduction, market flood, reduction and eventual adjustment.  We are an excitable but daft bunch.

Wetstuff

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Re: Why the zone has gone south
« Reply #91 on: November 08, 2018, 06:03:22 AM »
Ya, Boss  ...some of us keep buying - thinking 'just one more board or paddle will make me better.'  We have guys here that could do 360's on a foamy and then, other's like me that only get to the nose face first.


Jim
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PonoBill

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Re: Why the zone has gone south
« Reply #92 on: November 08, 2018, 06:53:15 AM »
Yeah, I grabbed it because the shape is right. And the matchuo to adoption curves is handy.
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Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

JEG

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Re: Why the zone has gone south
« Reply #93 on: November 08, 2018, 12:04:04 PM »
yup, i'm one of those and I bought it because I like it ;)

southwesterly

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Re: Why the zone has gone south
« Reply #94 on: November 08, 2018, 07:51:38 PM »
 How far south is the Zone going?
 
 I'll check for it in Baja this winter.

Admin

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Re: Why the zone has gone south
« Reply #95 on: November 09, 2018, 03:12:04 AM »
Out of interest, what year would you guys say production exuberance and the rush to enter the market hit its high?  What year would you say was the peak year of the buying curve? 

JimK

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Re: Why the zone has gone south
« Reply #96 on: November 09, 2018, 07:29:25 AM »
NEXT YEAR!

JimK
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PonoBill

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Re: Why the zone has gone south
« Reply #97 on: November 09, 2018, 07:36:59 AM »
I costco shared sales numbers on a product basis that would be easy. But I'd say the disappearance of SUP boards from the Maui Costco is interesting. Still plenty o' Wavestorm surf boards, but no SUP.
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Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

Ichabod Spoonbill

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Re: Why the zone has gone south
« Reply #98 on: November 09, 2018, 08:03:03 AM »
I've been seeing BodyGlove SUPs at my local BJs for a few years now. Nothing terribly interesting in terms of product, but they're there.
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TallDude

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Re: Why the zone has gone south
« Reply #99 on: November 09, 2018, 11:19:53 AM »
Out of interest, what year would you guys say production exuberance and the rush to enter the market hit its high?  What year would you say was the peak year of the buying curve?
Looking back a some plans I'd drawn for a friend of mine's SUP / Surf shop, I'd put it about 2011-2012. That's about when SUP ATX open their warehouse in San Juan Capistrano down the street from Hobie, BruSurf and SUPCO. SIC, Boga, Riviera, Infinity, Corran, Rogue and a few more had just moved their distribution to San Clemente. I would say that was near the peak of production.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2018, 11:28:23 AM by TallDude »

Area 10

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Re: Why the zone has gone south
« Reply #100 on: November 09, 2018, 10:41:49 PM »
In the UK, I should think that the number of sales is still increasing. But the increase is all in cheap inflatables. I fear that soon it will be as difficult to get hold of a particular model of hard board as it was 10-11 years ago. iSUPs are so dominant here that many paddlers starting out in the sport now actually don’t even know that hard boards exist. For them, the term SUP means “inflatable”.

If SUP was ever “cool” (which is doubtful), this flotilla of new and unfit recruits wobbling around on cheap blow-ups and gaudy clothing (and ugly pfds) has killed that. From an image POV, it’s almost embarrassing to be seen on a SUP now. In terms of the social signals it sends, the message is “unfit dork who can’t do a real sport, of limited financial means, who will need to be rescued very soon”. If events like the Red Bull Heavy Water or PPG etc are supposed to be the face of the sport, then this is achieving virtually zero penetration into the UK market these days. 99.9% of paddlers having taken up SUP in the last year in the UK will not know who e.g. Connor Baxter or Kai Lenny is (never mind Sonni, Candice, Annabel etc) or even where Waikiki is located. They probably don’t even know that SUP racing exists, and are only vaguely aware that you can surf SUPs. For them, SUPing is bimbling around a man-made lake on an inflatable (that you have blown up using an electric pump because a manual one is too tiring), taking selfies for Facebook, to be posted alongside pictures of the lunch you just had.

Wetstuff

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Re: Why the zone has gone south
« Reply #101 on: November 10, 2018, 08:36:32 AM »
 Boss,  I would say ~3 years ago..?  I bought and sold a lot of boards (like a hypochondriac in a Supplement shop) used, new, onshore, offshore.  I would probably still be buying ..but no more: I can't sell them. 

Maybe 4yrs ago I could buy-n-try, then spin them off in a few weeks time, losing only a few hundred dollars.  The last new board I sold - took about five months - with little interest.  I felt lucky to get a little over 50% of my "investment"  ...for an unmarked, exceptionally well-regarded board.

SUP is my sport.  I figure I will do it as long as I can pull a cart over the dunes, but the Visa card stays home.

Jim
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