Author Topic: Your living room Tesla  (Read 8560 times)

eastbound

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 2053
    • View Profile
Re: Your living room Tesla
« Reply #30 on: August 14, 2018, 05:49:06 AM »
PB---the short sellers are the only regulators who can keep our markets honest!! our regulators are generally installed and paid for by those they shd be regulating--what has always been a swamp is now a complete sewer

and there's a totally compelling case to short a co that's never shown a profit, has benefitted heavily from subsidy largesse (but rails against the solyndra's of the world, despite that tesla got an interest free 500mm govt money in the very same obama funding program that solyndra partook of)), that cant go on forever, with a ceo i find disingenuous

the cost of shorting is totally putative--the cost of borrowing stock renders a short posish much like owning high-delta fast-decaying options--youd better be right and quickly! and ceo's, who get paid based on stock option strikes, hate shorts for obvious reasons and engage massive PR and even private investigations of short sellers---and then we get to hear how short-sellers are not patriotic! that is often a big flag for accounting fraud ...

some think the outsized cost of shorting is unfair, if one thinks market prices shd represent equilibrium price--of course politicians oft end up aligned with ceo's--funny is the indignance of ceo's, poltiicians publicists, when companies are being shorted--all of whom crawl back in their holes when accounting fraud or some such hits the news!

re the tesla shorts, the only thing sleazy going on is that Musk has a religious following, and tweets whatever he feels like in frequent attempts to shake out the shorts, and he knows well that, in addition to their vulnerability to neg carry, his tweeting (possibly illegal--no board clearance etc), wild-assed statements about tesla can move the stock in ways that seriously pressure shorts.

i short lots of securities, and find tesla compelling as a short, but i can't go against musk and his irrational following and tendency to tweet/manipulate prices

musk? i dont like him--from what i know of him as a person, but also as a ceo---but he's done an amazing job using our system to build excellent cars and sell them to drivers---and the tesla machine is so big, whatever happens, it will be around--oh and musk has enriched himself too---so what he has done from nothing (prepaypal) is impressive---but that's a totally different issue than whether the stock price is valid or not--and this is the age of amazon, where some of the best-performing stox go for years without showing profit--but im old fashioned and think the chicken will come home to roost eventually--if revenues dont exceed expenses, with some degree of consistency, stock price gets hurt--i keep it simple that way

ive missed out on stox like amazon and tesla, but ive continually made a solid living, and consider it good trading discipline to avoid stox that cant show a profit, no matter how big the company or how well-received the product is

now long crude is neg carry--which means that if you buy futures, as i described on this thread in 2015, the longer you hold them, or the more distant-dated the contract you buy, the cheaper the price---when i bot the spot contract in the high 30's back then (as described here, real time), and sold it in the low 60's, it was a nice trade, but forward contract rolls, which imply cost of carry (storage, insurance, etc) reduced my profit by appx 50%--whatever, i was happy to take the money.

owning commodities is neg carry--shorting stox is extreme neg carry---timing critical
« Last Edit: August 14, 2018, 05:59:17 AM by eastbound »
Portal Barra 8'4"
Sunova Creek 8'10"
KeNalu Mana 82, xTuf, ergoT

Tom

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 2697
    • View Profile
Re: Your living room Tesla
« Reply #31 on: August 14, 2018, 07:02:03 AM »
Hey Eastbound,  your spellchecker is broken

eastbound

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 2053
    • View Profile
Re: Your living room Tesla
« Reply #32 on: August 14, 2018, 07:39:26 AM »
actually, in american english, it's "spell checker"--but thx for the tip!

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/spellchecker?s=t
Portal Barra 8'4"
Sunova Creek 8'10"
KeNalu Mana 82, xTuf, ergoT

PonoBill

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 21587
    • View Profile
    • Ponohouse is for sale. Great house but it's time for new adventures
Re: Your living room Tesla
« Reply #33 on: August 14, 2018, 10:18:29 AM »
In a new or substantially changed industry if revenues exceed expenses the company will probably get eaten by its competitors--not growing fast enough. Traditional investors are comfortable with GMC's model but they use their profit to buy back stock. In the face of the likely changes in the auto/truck industry, that seems a lot more wasteful and pointless than building a couple of gigafactories. Change happens dramatically fast these days. The GE model is toast. How did that happen? Wire/fiber-based telephone companies? WTF are they worth? The big ones can pivot and buy innovation but the smaller ones seem like their customers are dying every day--from old age. I'm looking at the behemoth that is Facebook and wondering how long it has to run. If a geezer like me is bored with it, where is growth going to come from? Probably mostly from buying the new, new--as long as no one gives a shit about antitrust anymore.

I agree about the swamp--it's just about as bad as it can get without stormtroopers and shooting dissidents. And I understand the value of short sellers to a vibrant market, but you're wise to stay away from Tesla. I think Elon gets to win this one. His arguments for why he tweeted are rational, even if it's on the fringe. I feel kind of prescient for seeing this coming, though there were plenty of flags.

From a technical standpoint it's hard to criticize Musk. The battery for the Model Three looks like it came from outer space. The tech is years ahead. The only surprise is no supercapacitors to store braking-generated electricity. Nice to have a place to stick that stuff without worrying about maximum charge rates.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2018, 10:24:47 AM by PonoBill »
Ponohouse is for sale: http://www.ponohouse.com
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

eastbound

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 2053
    • View Profile
Re: Your living room Tesla
« Reply #34 on: August 14, 2018, 01:44:37 PM »
hear you re growth before profits with new companies and industries---you are quite right about that---but amazon and others have taken that story to limits never previously imaginable, yet those who bought in have done very well, way better than i have---so my old fashioned view is admittedly somewhat obsolete, and not sure i can still learn new tricks at my fair age--so i am kind of stuck with what i know and what works for me--and new shit might threaten capital, which at our fair ages matters a bit too--but that's another arguable: some might say, since there's almost zero chance ill die broke, why not take some shots for my heirs?? in which case they'll might get little, or lots.............

prolly ill just remain here in jurassic park, just another pea-brained old dinosaur, going after the easier safer prey

Portal Barra 8'4"
Sunova Creek 8'10"
KeNalu Mana 82, xTuf, ergoT