The smokin spring and summer Maliko report

[Kissa]

I am coming over the Maui next week  and just have a few questions for the locals. What are the perfect conditions for a Maliko run? Looking at Windguru it is cranking East everyday. Should it be more North East? And what about race 2 (to Honolua Bay) of the Triple Crown. Is that a good run with a hard grind at the end of the race? Cheers from OZ. 

[LaPerouseBay]

I don't live on the north shore, so I have to check online before driving over.    

These lines should be long and from the east.  That's your fetch.  The closer together, the higher the wind speed.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/graphics/npac.gif

Wind speed and direction at the airport. 70-80 is probably best.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PHOG.html

Windguru at hookipa.  

http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc=53

Radar of rain showers that can block winds. also shows wind direction.  

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/hawaii_loop.php

More cloud stuff that can help with potential rain.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/flash-ir4.html

Cam at top of run.

http://www.mamasbeachcam.com/

Cam at bottom of run.  has graph of windspeed and gusts too.

http://www.mauiwindcam.com/streaming/kanaha/

You will get lots of info in person when you are here.

Oh, your question.  

NE is not best for maliko or the race to honolua.  You will want E for maliko and ESE for honolua.  The hard part of that race will be paddling north west up to Kahakuloa.    

[headmount]

Hey La Perouse, don't forget to throw your chart up for sunday's run.  Shirley says I'm getting a GPS for my  61 b-day

[LaPerouseBay]

I enjoy the gps data.  Here is today's line.



Here is part of the chart.  I can't include the overall time because it's too slow.  If the admin were to see it, the zone would go down due to coffee spewage.  I'll post a full chart when I go under 1:05 to the harbor.  



Garmin lets you zoom in on a section to measure a glide.  My personal record for one of these bumps over 8mph is 500 yards.  The best I had today was this one, about 260.

[headmount]

From the chart it looks like you fell three times... one of them after the big one you told me about.  The graph jibes with my memory of the run, especially the big ones off Uppers.  Looks like we had a steady range of 7 to 11, but my biggest thrill was not falling for the second time on my Bullet. 

[LaPerouseBay]

From the chart it looks like you fell three times... one of them after the big one you told me about.

Yes, 3 falls.  The first one was almost a good link.  The f-16 comes alive in that area.  It's not ideal for average speeds but great fun for late drops, surfing and quick turns (for a 16).  Super, super fun across that reef.        

/ Looks like we had a steady range of 7 to 11 /  

The gps average speeds can be very enlightening.  Lots of data in training center to help understand the graph.      

The numbers on the south shore are faster than I thought they would be.  Top speeds and averages can be quite similar.  Wind may be NE early this week.   I'm hoping for good south shore conditions late in the day.  

[LaPerouseBay]

The south shore was good today.  Here is a graph for comparison to Sunday's maliko.

These (2) glides are a bit longer than Sunday, about 280 yards (above 8 mph).



The software also switches easily to time.  The bumps appear to be about a minute at +8 mph.



8 mph is an arbitrary figure I use because it fits my graph well.    It's less than an exact science, but good enough for me to compare my runs.  The bump on the graph looks like a good connection to me. 

I mentioned this system to a pro, one of the best at maliko.  He's had similar speed 'glides' for a kilometer.  That's about 1100 yards. 

So if anyone asks how long the glides at maliko can be, tell them - on an average day - a middle aged pencil neck from Indiana can do a minute or two and a couple hundred yards. 

On a big wind event the fast paddlers are gliding for a very, very long time.         

[headmount]

And when you compare these downwind graphs to time and distance at a surfing break, a surfing break compares like this.  A short wave at an average break lasts about 5 secs, a long wave 10.  I used to surf Honolua Bay every season and it seemed like every year I'd hook up an extra long one from  outside coconuts through the keiki bowl which was about 30 secs and maybe the same length as the open ocean glides the pencil necked geek from Indiana is getting.  A connection of the various sections at G-land would be about the same distance and time, for sure no longer than 40 secs.  Robby's ride at Pavones was in the one of the longest surfing waves category. (also outside of Galveston)  Now you might say that a breaking wave speed is faster than a open ocean glide...  and I'd say sometimes a little more but sometimes less.... maybe more consistent speed on a breaking wave.  I'd like to see Robby's speed on his GPS on that Pavones wave.  I'm guessing 8-9.  Open ocean swells are traveling faster than breaking waves, that's why we need these long darts to catch them, and even then it ain't easy.

[LaPerouseBay]

Robbie Naish's average speed on that wave at Pavones illustrates how valuable it is to bring as much data as possible to each discussion.  His ride was 1.09 k at 2'15" for an average speed of 18+ mph.  Do what you will with those numbers.  
    
I'm not a whiz at math, far from it.  And all of my statistics is long since forgotten.  But I do remember how easily statistics can be manipulated to support an argument.  Common sense tells me to be very skeptical of anything to do with stats., particularly graphs.  With that in mind, I say again that all my graphs are very inexact.  

Great variations may exist in my gps data that I'm not aware of.  Particularly the sample rate.  Garmin 305's will allow you to set the sample rate to 'smart recording' (the default) which "picks up key points where you change direction, speed or heart rate."  The manual continues: "You can also record data every second, doing so creates the most accurate record possible of your activity".  However, with this setting, battery life is only 3.5 hours.  

I use the default option because it gives a more legible graph.  I tried the one second sample rate a few years ago.  The curves on my graph were very spikey, nearly illegible.  Maybe the updated software has better smoothing, I'll give it a whirl on my next paddle.  

IMO, gps graphs are fun to play with, but that's about it.  A mathmatician could probably make a case that my graphs are quite innacurate.  IMO the 305 is accurate for elapsed time, overall average speed and mapping courses.  I'm skeptical of their accuracy as the time interval shrinks.      

[LaPerouseBay]

Here is some data from my oc-1, chasing Jeremy on his 14.  I'm still undecided as to what glides look like on a graph.  This much I'm sure of; oc-1's are fun and Jeremy is fast.     


 


And the section of the run from 0:14 to 0:21 minutes.





 

[Dangerous Dan]

Hey LaPerouseBay,

I'm that pencil neck, only from North Carolina versus Indiana.  We arrive Maui next Tuesday night for a week of surf SUP on the west side.  I appreciate all of the great info on the ten or so pages on this topic.  I am also so hyped about renting an F16 for a Miliko run and hope to get up with some of you guys so maybe you all can help point this 56 year old NC pencil neck from point A to point B!

[PonoBill]

Ocean swells are quite a bit faster than breaking waves, the reason the wave breaks is that friction slows the front of the wave and make it stack, then the back of the wave catches the front and the whole thing topples over (simplified, but more or less true).

Open ocean wave speed is proportional to the wave period--roughly three times the period in knots per second so a 15 second wave travels at 45 kts/hr. As the reach shallow water the drop dramatically in speed to roughly half that.

The reason Robby went so much faster surfing a breaking wave is that he wasn't traveling in the same direction as the wave, he was vectoring across the face.

[LaPerouseBay]

Open ocean wave speed is proportional to the wave period--roughly three times the period in knots per second so a 15 second wave travels at 45 kts/hr. As the reach shallow water the drop dramatically in speed to roughly half that.

Your ablility to rattle that off the top of your head is impressive.  The spelling errors are a dead giveaway. 

I like this link about ocean waves. 

http://www.surfline.com/surf-science/how-do-we-get-surf---forecaster-blog_56731/

Here's a clip: "The individual waves actually move twice as fast as the wave train or the swell, and a single wave's speed can be calculated by multiplying the swell period times three."

Reading the link's description of open ocean wave speed, I'd probably change your sentence to "Open ocean wave speed is proportional to the swell period..."

Granted, swell and wave are often interchangeable, I'm splitting hairs, etc. 

But the author does have interesting points about how waves behave on wave trains (swells) in the open ocean.  It seems fitting to make the distinction in the downwind section.  And it helps explain why Robbie goes so fast on the wave.  He's got the energy of the entire swell in his wave.  Downwinders are usually milking the waves on the swell, and those little bastards are always reforming...

Quiz on Friday. 

I've always liked this picture.  It helps explain the spooky feeling in the pit of my stomach when I see a long period groundswell. I tell myself hmm, why should I be afraid of that 15 footer? it's never going to break.  Oh yeah, it's a thousand feet deep  That explains it.   

[headmount]

Great info.  In the world of adventures in low speed or "downwinding" the waves we catch here on Maui are most likely in the 6-8 sec period, especially in these summer months.  It seems to me that in the same depth of water, the smaller slower moving waves tend towards a steeper, easier to catch slope.  The faster waves tend towards increasingly flatter slopes, which are more difficult to catch.  The ticket seems to be getting a boost from a small steep one that can launch you into those faster moving flatter ones.  Since the fast moving swells cease to exist in shallower water, for a Maliko run, it asks you a question, is the deeper outside route a better choice?  If you are able to connect into those fast moving longer period swells then the answer may be yes.  But if you don't connect consistently  into those fast moving flatties then the steeper slower moving inside may be your ticket because of the steadier average speed.  I've seen the difference on many days between one and the other.  Each day has so many variables to try to add up and roll the dice as to which choice is best.  Most times I gamble for the outside.  Even if my overall speed isn't as good as the inside on that specific day, learning the challenge of connecting into the fastest moving wind swells is what really turns me on.  But if you're racing the inside line can be better for overall time.

[808sup]

You guys impress me with all your scientific calculations    I just look at the water and decide if it's going to be sleigh rides all the way or if I will be grinding. Which brings me to a question. Since light winds are expected at sundays' race, will your line be closer to shore or outside???