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Messages - Beasho

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1
Random / Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« on: April 02, 2020, 12:56:53 PM »
It would be interesting to see how many of the comorbidity C19 deaths would have occurred anyway from other causes in 2020 (based on prior years data). The fear mongers want us to believe it's 1918, the naysayers the opposite. As is always the case, the truth will be somewhere in the middle ::)

Here is that View.  2017 Death Data for the United States. 

I am estimating 82,000 deaths from Corona and how that would look if SLID into the profile from ~2 years ago.  This model assumes

--> NO NET INCREASE IN DEATH

In other words Corona just takes the place of the other CoMorbidities for the Year. 

2
Random / Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« on: April 02, 2020, 07:00:06 AM »
I have been screaming about CoMorbidity since I saw the statistics 3 weeks ago out of China then confirmed by Bloomberg in Italy and the data from Imperial College.  All 100% aligned on the risk to PRIOR HEALTH CONDITIONS.

Then on Sunday 60 Minutes was reporting and the doctor said "We see a high correlation with Obesity."  BMI > than 40 is listed as Morbid Obesity.  And there it was the word again.

Reuters just published this article on the higher death rates in Louisiana "We're just sicker."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-new-orleans/why-is-new-orleans-coronavirus-death-rate-seven-times-new-yorks-obesity-is-a-factor-idUSKBN21K1B0

4
Random / Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« on: April 01, 2020, 01:19:38 PM »
Latest observations:

Italy has topped out.  The maximum number of new cases was 10 days ago on March 22nd @   The US is in a high burn phase.  1 Week Forecast stands at 460,000 CASES in the United States.

Italyís death rate was greater than 20% for the past 2 days.  The US death rate was up to its highest level of 3.6%.

5
Random / Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« on: April 01, 2020, 01:16:26 PM »
All this covid-19 forecasting reminds me of how experts try to predict the stock market. The Dow Jones or S&P is gonna peak at (insert number) by (insert date)....

Sweet curves.  The inflections should happen at the same time.

Meanwhile.  More data supporting CoMorbidity and Corona's relationship with the common Influenza.  Maybe the angry red headed step kid to the Flu.

Article from Zero Hedge.  It takes people with Pre-Existing Conditions for the Corona Virus to propagate.  There are only so many people in a given population.

ďItaly's mild flu season left a larger victim pool for COVID-19. This would suggest that the US, which has struggled with more lethal flu seasons, won't have as large a pool of potential high-risk victims, especially as testing suggests the virus is more widespread than many had expected.Ē

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/whats-behind-italys-outrageous-10-mortality-rate-covid-19

6
Random / Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« on: March 30, 2020, 09:30:59 AM »
OK - Plan for Denominator to GO UP!

Can we assume Death Count is more Solid?  Aka not a bunch of hidden bodies somewhere.

US Profile ONLY. 

7
Random / Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« on: March 30, 2020, 08:52:26 AM »
With regards to Comorbidity Corona Virus may just be accelerating the leading causes of Death in the United States. 

This model shows what 82,000 deaths would look like IF the COVID-19 numbers simply displaced the HIGH Risk causes of Death from 2017. 

It would result in a 5% drop in the leading causes with NO NET CHANGE in Total Deaths.

Here is an article suggesting that Deaths as measured in TOTAL Numbers are in FACT DOWN Across all age groups.  Lets hope it not FAKE news.  Could it be possible:

WILL MORE PEOPLE WILL SURVIVE THIS YEAR THAN IN PAST YEARS BECAUSE OF THE CORONA VIRUS?

https://www.dropbox.com/s/2y2gvh2q7axdzz2/COVID-19_UnintendedConsequences.pdf?dl=0&fbclid=IwAR3eHyr0bLrB0zQBmol11P7_xrDJRhXRYz5oLaT3o7jGGbgusYMs12SxvHw

8
Random / Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« on: March 30, 2020, 08:43:10 AM »
Watching Dr. Fauci (and Dr. Birx) estimate 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the US in yesterday's briefing was disorienting (the whole briefing was bizarre). . . .

He is seeing a peak in deaths in 2-3 weeks.  If correct, those would be death numbers in the range of our current infected numbers.  A commentator mentioned this being like thirty to sixty 911 events. Trump is now saying that 100,000 deaths would be a great success and based on a warning he was given (2.2 Million dead) he extended social distancing measures to April 30. . . .

Researchers at the University of Hong Kong have estimated that, in Wuhan, where the pandemic began, the likely death rate was 1.4 per cent ó much lower than the previous estimate of 4.5 per cent, which was calculated using official statistics on the regionís cases and deaths.[/b]

I am estimating numbers BELOW Fauci.  This model shows 82,000 Deaths in the United States but requires the Exponential Growth of Cases Positive Cases to Reach 4.7 Million in the United States.

It will not.  There is not enough Dry Powder in the Keg due to
1) CHANGE in Social Behavior and
2) Death Rates are likely LOWER than currently recorded because of Many, Many more benign infections than we are currently measuring per the Wuhan data above. 

My Conclusion:The death rate in the US is likely to be BELOW 82,000.

Days to Double in the US has INCREASED to 5.6.  Italy the United States and the Remainder of Europe reported FEWER cases yesterday than the day before.  Looks like a top but still too early to call it.

Full output attached as PDF:

9
Random / Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« on: March 29, 2020, 11:40:49 AM »
Report for the day.  United States Fatality is LOW.

In Line with Germany and Japan.  Korea has spiked.

10
Random / Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« on: March 28, 2020, 12:02:02 PM »
From a high school friend who is now a Doctor:

"Stories from the front line are alarming but represent only a fraction of cases. The unknown seems to be why some are minimally symptomatic and why some go into respiratory failure (even healthy people). Hot zone statistics seem to suggest 81% get mild symptoms, 15% get pretty sick and may wind up in the hospital with supplemental oxygen but survive. 4% become critical and of those the death rate is is 70-80%. In other words, if you wind up on a ventilator you better have your affairs already in order. This is the story out of Seattle and NOLA anyway."

--> 4% X 70% = 3.2% Death Rate (now I am running numbers).  This is HIGHER than reported but within the realm of believably.

Takeaway:  YOU DO NOT WANT TO BE ON A VENTILATOR

11
Random / Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« on: March 28, 2020, 11:28:42 AM »
PDF Print out of Model attached.

I am getting the On-Line version updated with this latest Model.

12
Random / Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« on: March 28, 2020, 11:27:33 AM »
Positive Thoughts are Tough to find hunting through the data but THE UNITED STATES IS NOT ITALY (This is what I have for Today).

IF the UNITED STATES were ITALY we would have ~ 49,411 DEAD.  The US has 1,700 dead or 30X lower.
The Deaths per 100K in ITALY is JUST BELOW the Number of People that DIED from INFLUENZA in the UNITED STATES 2 years ago. 

PLEASE INTERNALIZE THIS.  2 Years ago 17.1 People Died per 100K of the FLU in the US.

The CUMULATIVE death rate in the US stays low at 1.6%.  Latest Death Rate 2.2% from yesterday. 

Bad News:  The United States is Winning with more Cases in the US than any other Country.  Expect to see 300,000 CASES in the US within the next 7 days.

13
Here is the video from yesterday. Still canít believe I made every one I tired. What an awesome day.

That video is the stuff of dreams.  Same thing over and over but canít stop watching. 

Too cool.  The video, the sunshine, the drone hover and track, the light air, the planing (foiling) in almost no wind.  Just what we all dreamed of 30 years ago - maybe more for some of you  8)

14
Random / Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« on: March 27, 2020, 01:34:06 PM »
Here is a PDF output of the link from above.  I am testing to see if it attaches to the ZONE post.

15
Random / Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« on: March 27, 2020, 01:15:53 PM »
No need to hear the data.  I have been providing this link with all the details for the past week and a half.

This is the World Health Organization data taken from table form and converted into Graphics.  525,00 Worldwide cases.  With the US topping the list for CASES.  The US is 6th on the list for deaths:

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzExYmM2ZWQtZWVmMS00OTI1LWE1NzYtMTU2OTk3ZGE4ZjMyIiwidCI6IjQzODE2ODE2LTY0OTYtNDU4My1iMmVmLWU5Y2U3MTg1NjI4MCIsImMiOjF9

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