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Messages - PonoBill

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1
Random / Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« on: Today at 09:11:00 AM »
What's absent in the notion of "judge the governors on the death rate" is the simple difference in the nature of the states they govern. North Dakota has the most effective governor by that measure.

2
Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP / Re: Waterstarts
« on: April 04, 2020, 01:10:59 PM »
For knee starts, anything you can kneel on long enough to get the wing up is gold. Of course, conditions effect that a lot, but once even a clumsy, heavy fahkah like me gets to the point where the wing is flying and I have my front foot up, I'm gold. I've knee started on boards I couldn't stand on for two seconds.

I think though, if I were going to try waterstarts (no way) I'd want a serious sinker. I tried paddling a sinker SUP once, and discovered I could get a smaller sinking board (one that sank almost to my hips) going sometimes, whereas one that sank below my knees was just impossible. Undoubtedly there were other factors going on, since these experiments were spaced weeks apart (time required to lick my wounds), but the deeply sunk board didn't seem to pitch forward or back as much--my falls on that were from rolling to the side.

Incidentally, falling off a board that has tipped you off by pitching forward is a lot more dangerous than one that rolls you to the side--The buggah came up like a Polaris a few times and just missed my gourd.

I'm going to be looking at boards in the 100L range to knee start. Short, wide, thick in the nose and tail. Sounds like the first line of the chorus to a country western song. Probably followed by "but I loved her anyway".

3
Random / Re: Ain't no Sunshine
« on: April 03, 2020, 02:27:06 PM »
A great talent. A substantial number of my all time favorite songs were his.

4
That's a pretty big deal. Back when this first started looking serious I read a piece about the potential for leveraging SARS research that was suspended when the infection was stopped via quarantine. They were talking about this being the fastest possible approach to an effective medicine for the disease. At the time the companies doing the work were downplaying the likelihood that they could make the medicine work--that the SARS2 and SARS viruses might not be similar enough to have the molecules blanket the receptors. This is pretty good news. September is a long way away, but at least it isn't 18 months. I expect we'll bridge the time to September with relaxed stay at home orders once the infection curve turns and a lot more testing to isolate outbreaks.

5
Random / Re: Perhaps more scary and longer lasting than the Virus.
« on: March 31, 2020, 10:30:08 AM »
Being smart is not proof against becoming addicted to conspiracy theories and alternate reality. In some ways, an active imagination and high degree of creativity open the door. We are all wired for it and it takes effort and discipline to remember how little we actually know. As soon as we settle into a belief it becomes self-reinforcing with all the flavors of confirmation bias. I actively try to purge the phrase "I believe" from my vocabulary and the notion that I know enough about anything to call something a fact.

My best friend growing up was one of the most intelligent people I've ever met. He could learn anything twice as quickly as I could and made leaps in understanding that I marveled at. He slowly became convinced of many strange things, most of which he had no objective evidence to support his beliefs. He was eventually diagnosed with schizophrenia. I'm aware that schizophrenia has a genetic component, but watching him descend into it felt more like watching someone create their own reality and then be unable to escape it.

6
SoCal / Re: Wing Skateboarding 3-26-2020 Blowing 17-21 MPH
« on: March 31, 2020, 10:13:49 AM »
3" wheels aren't really enough for sand, that's what I have on my board now. the wheels I had were smooth with a ridge down the middle and were a little more than 6" wide. They used an extremely offset hub so they could be used with standard mountainboard tracks. They were shit on pavement or packed dirt, but glided over loose sand and even up dunes if I had enough wind. Certainly beaches like mission beach would work fine. Oregon has ideal beaches for this stupidity. I have no problem remembering the hematomas and abrasions I had from sand sailing with a board.

7
SoCal / Re: Wing Skateboarding 3-26-2020 Blowing 17-21 MPH
« on: March 31, 2020, 09:38:49 AM »
Get some fat sand wheels for that board and you'll be on to something. I'm going to dig out my sandsurfing board and get it back in action. I gave away the sand wheels a long time ago and converted it to a mountain board. Hopefully I can find some replacements. the old ones I had came from France.

8
Wingsurfing, Windfoiling, Wingfoiling, Wing SUP / Re: F-One Swing
« on: March 30, 2020, 09:49:47 AM »
Quote: ...and some video of the same...Wow.

Nice links, that invisibility feature is a cool trick. If you're having trouble posting I can give you some technical help. I think your automatic link parser is all bustzz. At least it doesn't like Facebook and Instagram links--but then, who does. I tried to dig the file locations out of the page html but sheesh, that info is seriously buried, probably only exists as a pointer to some SQL record. 

Interestingly, if you reply to the thread and look at the previous postings you can see and use the links.

9
The Shape Shack / Re: favorite source for 4-6oz carbon cloth?
« on: March 30, 2020, 09:46:45 AM »
Most people that glass a bit wind up with a favorite resin, and it's rarely the same one as other folks. That's one of the reasons you can't get all the stuff in one shot. I can't get Resin Research epoxy at Fiberglass Hawaii. I wind up using other stuff in Maui and it bugs the shit out of me, but I'd pay more for the shipping than the resin.

10
Random / Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« on: March 30, 2020, 09:32:50 AM »
Actually, you never want to be on a ventilator in any case. My daughter is a Respiratory Therapist, and during one of our conversations early in the outbreak, she said she heard that caregivers in Italy were putting people on ventilators when their O2 level dropped beyond a certain point. She was outraged, she said something like: "you put a ventilator tube in someone's lung and you just took 20 percent of their lifespan away. A lot of people are never the same. We view it as a last-ditch effort." I'm sure she's realized now that the people they're putting on ventilators are at the last-ditch.

The April 30th date is probably a good one. Most of the predictive models I've seen for the effect of shelter in place show a peak at around April 21. The peak for Oregon is estimated on April 24.

One of the new problems with testing is that the most intensive testing is happening in places that are already a hot spot. What pretty much everyone expected--that testing only sick people vastly under-reports the infection rate--is obviously true. The huge jump in infected people in New York is probably as much an artifact of greatly increased general testing as it is an indication of infection growth. Increased testing in areas not identified as hot spots would enable those infection loci that are under the radar to be detected and appropriate action taken. Then again, the large number of infections reported in New York will probably get people to comply more with social distancing requirement. New Yorkers are notoriously hard to push to comply with anything.

11
Random / Re: Robert at Blue Planet has face masks...
« on: March 29, 2020, 09:03:30 PM »
Like anyone that works with composites, I have a variety of masks. I've given most of my stash of disposables to the local hospital along with a bunch of disposable PPEs but kept one N95 with an outlet valve for grocery shopping, etc. I could wear one of my dual filter N100 full-face masks, but I doubt it would make a difference, and I'd look like Darth Vader. If I'm going that far I'll go with supplied air and scuba tanks. Wouldn't that be just special? There are a lot of different designs of facemasks, and N95 just means it filters 95 percent of particles 3 microns in diameter and it's not oil resistant. There are also N99 and N100 which means 99 and 99.7 percent respectively. That's just a filter spec. most of the N95 (most common) masks don't take any particular knowledge or fitting to wear. Talldude is talking about surgical N95 which does require fitting and even in some cases skin taping to ensure proper fit. But the industrial N95 with a wide, flat flange around the edge is designed to seal adequately (as a dust mask) with no special fitting--all it has is elastic bands. Other than the nosepiece there isn't any adjustment.

The FDA guidance on face masks and Coronavirus seems contradictory and mostly aimed at getting masks to folks who need them most. The FDA says they don't help with keeping you safe from contamination and don't buy them because our healthcare workers and emergency response workers need them. All well and good, the loons hoarding a few hundred facemasks while nurses are reusing a single-use facemask that's soggy from days of use deserve a good ass-kicking. But if you've got one and you're going to be in contact with other people you have to be a little nutty--or very fashion-conscious--not to wear it. I go shopping in a mask and gloves. I use the same decon methods I used to have to do when I worked in contaminated spaces in nuclear plants. I have a wife with diabetes. She's not going to get this because I was careless.

Glove protocol is challenging. To do it right you need a lot of gloves, and preferably you either double glove or use liners. I'm our designated errand dude, and I have a couple of boxes of nitrile gloves--I wear them a lot when I'm working on vehicles--but it's not a sufficient supply to do gloves right. As a modified protocol I wear the gloves to handle things that I don't know are deconned, decon the stuff before it comes into the house, decon everything I touched with the gloves, then wash the outside of the gloves with bleach water, strip them off, put them in a bag to reuse when I run out, and then wash my hands. I won't run out for a couple of weeks, so anything on them should be safely kaacked by then, though I'll probably do a mass bleach wash and dry them on dowels before I reuse them.

Diane is sewing masks to donate. They're washable--the nosepiece wire is stainless steel. Safety wire from my shop. We'll ship a bunch to my daughters, who are both in healthcare and exposed. My youngest daughter is head respiratory therapist at a small hospital and an EMT. Yikes. My other daughter works in a VA hospital dealing with critical care patients. As proud as I am of them for doing the work they do, I've been waking up in the middle of the night and staring at the ceiling a few too many times lately. I worry about all the people I care about. I'm not particularly concerned for myself. As stupid as I know it is, I consider myself invulnerable. But as always, hell is other people.

12
The Shape Shack / Re: favorite source for 4-6oz carbon cloth?
« on: March 29, 2020, 08:04:44 PM »
Soller composites generally has the widest selection and the best prices.

13
I've been thinking about making a wing foil board. The strength required is mostly concentrated in about 30 inches of the board (mast to forward foot position), which leads me to think the rest of the board can be fairly light. Seems like a windfoil board doesn't have that benefit--foil in the back, mast probably half the distance between the foil and the nose, and the rider moving a lot more. Stringers would seem like the lightest way to tie both together. I'd be tempted to make carbon stringers with medium density foam sandwiched with a layer of bagged carbon and get the foam shaped with those and the mounting blocks for the foil and mast in place.

I don't have any interest in hand shaping the board, I'd get it CNC'd

14
Random / Re: COVID-19 Data Model Updated Daily
« on: March 28, 2020, 08:32:27 AM »
What also matters is how draconian the separation and quarantine actions are, and how the population reacts. There are countless videos on how the Chinese reacted--roadblocks, arresting people (I wonder what the heck they do with them), locking people into their houses. In India the police beat the shit out of violaters. I can't see the USA doing much of that.

I read a lot of media, including extreme stuff on both ends of the USA political spectrum. I don't recommend that to anyone who wants to retain a respect for humanity--both ends are disgusting. I'm watching the drumbeat to discredit Dr. Fauci on the far right. It's a weird thing to see, it feels like the kind of shit the soviets used to do when someone in the power structure didn't behave. I don't even begin to understand the American public.

15
Random / Gorge Gowns and other COVID response
« on: March 25, 2020, 08:28:08 PM »
I got this email from Maui Meyer this evening. He's been spearheading a team to make PPE gowns using local resources. Also making hand sanitizer and face shields for emergency workers. It's a pretty cool effort that can be repeated anywhere there are sewing facilities. The design plans will be availabe to anyone once the santizing and production protocols are set.

Greetings funders, great news from the Gorge!

It's here! We are live, with HMB 50, an Oregon not for profit to procure and donate PPE to health and public safety workers in the Gorge and beyond.

HMB 50 stands for "Hand Made Brigade, 50". 50 is the number of hours from when Dr. Laurel Berge, called me asking for help until the time we donned (and doffed, which apparently is a real word) the first tyvek prototype. (which was prototype 5) It's been a quick 5 days.

It is time to redeem your pledges! If you would like to donate, to our tax deductible organization online, please do so here:  http://nextdoorinc.org/donate/      Use the pull down menu to designate that the donation is being made to the Hand Made Brigade 50. If you would like your donation to be directed towards a specific area of concern (Masks, Shields or Gowns)  Please note that in the comment section.


If you would like to donate via check, to our tax deductible organization, please mail the check, made out to "The Next Door" and send it to 965 Tucker Road, Hood River Oregon, 97031, with HMB50 in the memo line.


If you DON'T CARE ABOUT THE DEDUCTION, Please send a check made out to HMB50 and Mail it to 1002 Oak Street, Hood River, Oregon 97031. If you would like to venmo me, It's @Maui-Meyer.

 
Our fiscal sponsor for tax deductible status, The Next Door, Hood River's leader in community development, and community social service.  Janet Hamada, a person whom I am lucky to call a friend, is the director of this organization. She is a "Super Titan" in my book. I am honored that they have taken HMB 50 on as a client on such short notice and with so much uncertainty.


Your contributions have been so generous, and so important. We have, in the last 36 hours:

secured the ability to produce our gowns locally. The first production of this type, in the nation that I am aware of.  50 gowns a day by next week is targeted and at full run, (hopefully in 10-14 days) and more to come.  The bulk of the gowns will be donated to Hood River County's Emergency Response Center, who will, via the regions mutual aid agreement, point the gowns towards the areas of most need.  (The gowns are also being reviewed at the national level, and we plan to release the patterns free of charge to similar production facilities across the country, once we have production/sanitation protocols understood, and in place.)

Ordered 350 gallons of hand sanitizer produced locally to be donated to the Emergency Response Center, for free distribution.

Assisted in funding the production of 3,000 top of the line face shields, for distribution through the Emergency Response Center, to the region. 

There is more to come. I have not looked down yet. Nor will I

Stay Safe, Be Well. And. Thank you all. Please send your money, and please share this email far and wide.





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