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1
General Discussion / Re: Politicians are getting crazy
« on: January 26, 2021, 02:31:05 PM »
Pay no attention to the vaccine that can't get doled out efficiently, the tents and trash covering every piece of empty ground with less than a 10 degree slope, opiate addicts with no where to go, the kids falling through the cracks, and the hospitality sector withering away.

"My constituents (testing company buddies) want boating courses for paddlers, without boating courses there is anarchy!"
 

2
General Discussion / Re: Wow, I suck at SUP surfing
« on: December 24, 2020, 09:00:55 AM »
Great post.

I'm sort of Mid-life (I hope), but it just seems like every year that goes by, the less muscle memory I have. Age makes things that were once easy hard.

I have been mostly prone surfing the last couple of years, I just like the simplicity and my kids are doing it. Last year I decided to spend a few days SUSing and damn, the waiting for wave and paddling for waves part was rough. Once on the wave I felt pretty comfortable, except the paddle was always in the way.




3
SUP General / Re: Surfboards (Longboards)
« on: December 11, 2020, 10:44:47 AM »
With regard to the fin, the shape has a lot to do with how stable the board is. A wider fin makes the board far more stable, and rigid. The in between is a "pivot" style fin, which is wide at the base and narrows at the tip.

A fin with a wide base, or wide throughout will require you to be a little more prepared to "turn and burn". Meaning you have to be strong with your movements to rock the board back on its tail, pull the nose around, flop back on your belly, and start paddling. A thruster is much easier to do this move, as the fins are meant for turning. You don't have to pay as close of attention, you can steer a thruster much easier from the prone position.

I enjoy surfing a single fin on a cruiser longboard, it is all about trim and glide. Turning a wide single fin is pivot turning which is actually a little harder than standing over a tri fin or quad set and leaning. I should not say you can't turn a single fin from the back 1/2 of the board it is just more of a swoop, than any sort of quick turn (unless its a pivot turn).

@Dusk Patrol - Ukulele is the brand that Chris Ruddy used to shape for. He still makes the Drifter.

http://www.chrisruddysurfboards.com/shop/a449cajndkwyxnf21paqj698f6dr5v

4
Random / Re: Moving to NZ because of the virus
« on: October 13, 2020, 10:59:45 AM »
My wife is a school counselor and most schools are not open here in WA except for private and a few in rural areas. What keeps me up at night is my wife dealing with kids experiencing actual trauma caused by these school lockdowns. Literally, last night I was up consoling her between midnight and 2 am. Every student gets a school provided Chrome book and if they are in grades 1-5 every time the kid triggers a key word "abuse, suicide, kill, etc" it pings on my wife's computer and she gets to try and deal with it. What is really troubling her is that she had a case load of kids she knew would suffer, but is now getting a lot of extra kids who she would have never expected to suffer. Last night was sobbing "These are babies!" "They are doing their best, and their parents still can't handle this stress." Even worse are the kids she can't even find. Teachers come to her every week asking where students that they had concerns over are, and no one can find them.

She calls Child Protective services, but states that the CPS staff is so over taxed with called in abuse cases that they will not even look at a keyword case unless it is already on their case list. You can't blame them, they have to triage in some way. Sometimes her and the vice principal drive around last known address just to try and get eyes on the children.

Closing schools has been medically useless for children (at best). Seeing a generation of students caught in the middle of a political issue makes me sick. I have emailed my school board, county commissioners and county health department as these guys are the un-elected bureaucrats setting the case load requirements for schools to open. Nothing more dangerous than an unelected bureaucrat.

5
Random / Re: Moving to NZ because of the virus
« on: October 08, 2020, 01:29:04 PM »
I think it is probably a lot easier to move to the US than to NZ. It is sure as hell a lot easier to keep people out of NZ.

But the easiest thing, is to get a "why America is bad" article published.

The US is one of the most open countries in the world. Couple that with "rugged individualism", 70 times more people, 3.8 MM square miles vs 104 K square miles  and the NZ program probably falls apart pretty quickly. The Author saying it "could" be done in the US is plain wrong.  I just don't think you can get enough buy in to a test and trace program. I know the husband of a contact tracer, and she has "named names" to him. He told me he is flat out shocked at how many people he knows that are very liberal (at least on Facebook), and that when the contact tracer has reached into their personal lives, they bristled right up and told her to leave them alone (in some very nasty ways). This husband has told me he wants to punch people in his community in their face for the stuff they said to his wife. Most Americans are very private (and selfish) by nature, both political sides.

6
This is so relatable. I have a tundra with an open only key and have two wired up under the chassis in different locations. Plus one stays in the loop of my wetsuit.
 -
I have locked in plenty of keys and done many other brain dead things but ever since one day when I was 26 I have always fitted my vehicles with multiple keys and keys in alternate locations (at the office and leave a set with my sister).

It was a late October afternoon, I was having a wonderful afternoon fishing for coho salmon on a pretty remote river. I had a 4 fish limit of beautiful fish and the temperature had dropped below freezing as dusk fell on the river. I had walked a mile from my truck to where I was having good luck. The location was a logging road and when I parked I was with 9 rigs and in the morning there would likely be at least 10 rigs, but after dark I was the only one there. I had a Chevy Truck (96 S-10) at the time.

The place I parked had a waist deep side channel that you have to cross with some substantial current. During my afternoon of fishing the river rose about 6". When I got to the crossing it was dark and I was navigating by headlight, plus I had 4 salmon on a rope, and I accidentally entered the river in a location that was slightly downstream of where I should have. 3/4 the way across where it started to get deep - the fresh current swept me off my feet.

It could have been a pretty dangerous situation, I was wearing chest waders and below me was 10' deep snaggy water, but I was able to lunge out and swim a few hard strokes and grab on a log on the side I was headed to. The fish rope was tied to me and  the fish were swept into some debris below the log, and were dragging me back and downstream I had to reach down and around the log to pull the fish out. During that operation my headlight fell off, and was swept downstream.

So was able to roll out onto the log and get out of the water. My waders were already freezing with ice by the time I got to my rig and I realized that my keys were not in my fishing vest. They had fallen out along during my swim(I thought). No matter I had a key wired under the truck, but my light was shining bright in the river. So I laid down and started feeling around up under the chassis. I could not find the key. After what felt like 10 minutes (probably less) my fingers were so numb that I could not feel anything. My hands were just lumps at the end of my arms. Teeth chattering, soaked from head to foot I realized things were getting pretty serious.

First I thought maybe I had wired the key up on the other side of the truck so I tried that for a bit. No luck I just barked my hands up more. They were bleeding but I couldn't feel a thing. The choices were a 3 mile walk in the dark to a main road to hopefully get a ride somewhere or break a window out, because there was a flashlight in the glove box. I chose the window breaking, so I hunted around for a rock and had a helluva time breaking out one of the back window panels. My hands were so cold and bloody that everything I grabbed was slick with blood, so I had to keep wiping down with my bait towel, but actually I was able to blow the back window latch apart and got in without breaking a window. I don't know how long the whole thing took, but I got a little freaked out because of how cold I was.

My stupidity paid off in that I had actually left my keys in the car on the seat so I was able to get heated up pretty fast. Turns out the key under my chassis had fallen off. I used a zip tie, but must have had brush up under there knock it off or maybe it froze and broke. So now I do duplicates with twisted wire holding them in  (one near a front tire, one near a back tire) and I do a few dry runs of finding them with my eyes closed. It is also nice to have 2 keys in case you park over a puddle or on a busy road. I also hide a starting key inside every vehicle, because now the opening keys don't start the car.

TLDR - non surf related story about why I wire up two opening only keys under my rigs.

7
Random / Re: A difficult read: 'Unraveling of America' in Rolling Stone
« on: August 24, 2020, 11:05:08 AM »
Hi Admin

Sure there will be a curve, just not until it is over and data is reconciled. This probably happens in some universities after 2021.

The Daily new confirmed curve is simply a reporting curve. Meaning that as deaths get attributed to CV they get reported to CDC and show up here. Only some states report date of death so you get artificially inflated back end numbers. This graph checks out in that regard. Again, these will have to be correctly dated to show the picture.

The confirmed per million, also has only one way to go (unless we reconcile some book keeping). I would guess it will plateau by mid-Sep, somewhere south of Italy, but just barely. US has a few states higher than Italy but rest of country varies. You also have to remember that our reporting “with or from” is about 35/65 split respectively. Other countries could easily do different. I have a friend who is actively fighting their grandma’s death certificate. Grandma was 90+, fell and broke her hip and died in hospital the way many people do and she was coded as C19 death (she did test positive, but was asymptomatic).

The Daily deaths chart is the one I have been talking about. Once the dates are properly attributed you will see a double hump matching SARS or MERS, just google a couple. I am not up on embedding stuff.

We are pregnant with the idea that we are “squashing or getting control of, or managing” this virus, and thereby saving lives. It’s a nice thought, but it is as if all other ways of dying do not exist.  So yes, human interaction has an effect on CV, but focusing only on one health outcome for a huge diverse country is a horrible mistake. Back in the beginning Beasho was pointing out ( and I was echoing) that there was less all-cause deaths due to the shutdown (accidental deaths mostly), but that has reversed -badly. The predictions of deaths due to timely diagnoses (cancer), and despair (suicide) are going to increase (are already there in the excess death charts). I will not be surprised to see Orange Man getting the blame for too heavy of lock downs and closing schools as this data comes to life. He should receive this blame, by letting political epidemiologists run the show and utilizing a broader consortium of experts steering towards a more risk rational approach.

We have known the “who” of this disease for a long time. The average age of death from Covid is 80+, the average age of death for Americans is 80-. The average age of death from cancer or despair is something like 75 (my math). Take 100 people dying of CV and 50 people dying from these other cases. The years of life lost are 50 years, and 250 years respectively. Does a year of life have value?

I just saw an article today that in Hong Kong they have a verified reinfection of CV. Just like every other corona virus (cold) you can get another round of the same thing as the virus mutates. Thus, the vaccine efficiency will be reduced as we are chasing the tail of the snake.

Lockdowns should never be used again - a massive health and economic mistake.

8
Random / Re: A difficult read: 'Unraveling of America' in Rolling Stone
« on: August 21, 2020, 09:30:46 AM »
Short read. That didn't exactly pan out, did it.

Farrs law describes the shape of the curve, it is just that viruses follow roughly the same rate down and up. SARS, Spanish Flu, CV, and others all follow it. The true shape of the curve can only be vetted once the death totals have worked their way through the bureaucratic snake. There are too many variables in "cases". Using case load for an "opening" metric is criminal, but every government body is doing that. We are on the runout of the curve, despite "exploding, spiking, or virus pockets". Deaths properly attributed and properly dated tell the actual story.

I have to admit I don't read any news articles on this anymore, I just look at a couple of state data tables (ICU and deaths) once or twice a week and compare to a SARS e-curve. The COVID news reports are grotesquely incompetent, politically slanted, or overly emotional.




9
Random / Re: A difficult read: 'Unraveling of America' in Rolling Stone
« on: August 21, 2020, 06:39:01 AM »
That was just an example, mostly in relation to the response to it. The Imperial College study was the doomsday study, and it was garbage from a technical assumptions standpoint, but it was held in much higher regard.

I just looked here: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

From the CDC the estimated flu deaths between 2010 and 2019 is 337k, so, you may be (close to) right. There are a lot of excess deaths that are currently unaccounted for which will likely be attributed to CV over the next 60 days. This is obvious to my eye because ICU census is dropping like a stone nationwide, and yet the newly reported daily deaths have remained steady. You can't have high daily deaths without high daily ICU census, so the current 1,200 deaths a day or whatever it is is more than 60% deaths a month ago being laundered.

As the data becomes correctly dated in the dashboards, the epidemiologic curves for pretty much every Country and state tracks Farrs law almost perfectly. Legislation of human nature has a long history of failure, but our hubris knows no bounds.

10
Travel, Trips, Destinations / Re: Mellow Wave Destinations
« on: August 21, 2020, 06:20:21 AM »
Not until next June 2021. It is a senior trip for my oldest daughter. A bunch of her friends and their families are going as well. Something like 40 people.

So, I will be in charge of all surf related entertainment. Most of the kids have been surfing with us before, so they all have a little bit of ability. They made me promise to take them as much as possible between March and June so they are ready for it.

11
Travel, Trips, Destinations / Re: Mellow Wave Destinations
« on: August 19, 2020, 09:25:58 AM »
So we did decide on CR and probably Tamarindo area. There is a lot of people so we had to make some concessions, but the place we are staying is about a couple blocks off the beach south of Witches Rock.

Stoked!

12
Thanks for the link. We are in process booking our first trip to CR Tamarindo in June of 2021.

I am so pumped.

As far as travel goes, I think betting the come on when CR, or Hawaii for that matter opens is probably going to get you some pretty empty surf, but some pretty heavy vibes from the locals. Probably worth it though.

13
Random / Re: A difficult read: 'Unraveling of America' in Rolling Stone
« on: August 19, 2020, 08:22:57 AM »
Increasing population isn't really the problem it was supposed to be, and even if everyone has just replacement (2.2 kids) the population will peak at about 9 billion and then start declining. The latest IMHE model shows something much more like what the late Hans Rosling predicted. We are, however, consuming a lot more of the world's resources than can probably be supported. Global warming will make that a lot worse, convincing idiots that GMO food isn't going to poison them is the best hope for feeding the planet. Organic food is an ecological disaster, when we stop burning hydrocarbons we'll still need to use a lot of them to make fertilizer.

https://phys.org/news/2020-07-world-population-billion.html

I beat this drum all the time. The carbon footprint for "organic" food is larger than that for GMO, there is just no way around that. Science is going to win (has won) the energy crisis, and can solve the food crisis. Long standing perceptions vis-a-vis nuclear power and GMOs are standing in the way.

14
Random / Re: A difficult read: 'Unraveling of America' in Rolling Stone
« on: August 18, 2020, 10:15:39 AM »
Why America Sucks articles are really popular. I'm sure the author will get a lot of praise for it.

He takes a hearty swipe at the usual suspects and in my opinion hits on: "the negative forces tearing apart a society are mitigated or even muted if there are other elements that reinforce social solidarity — religious faith, the strength and comfort of family, the pride of tradition, fidelity to the land, a spirit of place". Those are very powerful words.

Politics have replaced religion as dogma for the American Society. Staring in the 60s but gaining critical mass in the 80s and 90s with the backlash to neoliberalism and the thinking that the Government should have a hand in all things. Now we have the extremity of tribalism between political parties and their power grab. America for its faults was supposed to be a small government by the people - for the people and has morphed into by the politicians - for their friends (donors). Both parties are guilty of this, and the best of us would never enter the body politic, knowing how grotesque it is. Now with politics (and political causes) as religion, the common ground is hard to find.

Back to the comment though. In the same time frame starting in the 60s the family unit, and Judaeo/Christian ideals have been eroded. Despite their faults these are the under girding tenets of Western civilization and specifically the American Constitution. We have moved from reliance on family to reliance on government. Government has a place in nearly everyone's daily life. Thus 'politician' becomes an important job instead of a societal service, Biden has been at it for 47 years! What the fuck!?

Author also states a fact that the average father on average spends 20 minutes a day with his children. This comes dangerously close to stating that there is such a thing as gender roles! And I believe he is right.  I'm not a psychologist, but school and mass shootings and the daily death toll in cities like Chicago, Baltimore, and NY statistically have a person in common. His name is Dad.

The  degradation of math and science skills by Americans has shocked me recently. As we have become too easily swayed by the emotional argument - throwing the statistical argument out the window.

CV 19 being probably the best example of this. Knee jerk emotional policy setting, is going to cause significant issues short and long term. Even worse, a politician or even bureaucrat makes a policy decision the ability to say "I was wrong, lets go back" is missing. Science is messy, and CV has it so hyper politicized that the scientific process cannot play out in its normal fashion. I.e. if Stanford comes out with an IFR and it does not match the narrative or policy, it gets chastised by everyone or labeled wrong. Instead of peer review and discussion, it is immediately lost.

When the first world locks down the third world starves. Pay attention. We (as a planet) have fucked this up. Ask your friends who rely on manufacturing where shortages are showing up. We first world people might have to wait a month for a new freezer (outrageous!) in the 3rd world it means something different.

America will end up more like a European country eventually, moving to a more Socialistic society is the natural progression of Western Civilization. We will buck and champ at the reins but it will happen eventually.

15
Random / Re: Covid-19 - the Second Wave?
« on: July 24, 2020, 08:34:06 AM »
While the virus behaves as a natural phenomenon like every other virus before it.

Hi SupLeave,

Viruses don't all behave the same.  This one for instance has surged again in the hottest summer months.  Deaths are surging upwards again.  This surge is appearing in the US with a significant lag from positive case testing.  One of the few things we know for sure about this virus is how critical human behavior is to its spread.

Maybe? After all is said and done the worldwide epidemiological curves are probably going to look a lot like the original SARS, just multiplied by 40.

I mean the "crush the curve" places are having a rise in cases. I.e. Australia, Japan, Spain, California. And the places that had early success are having a rise in cases Fla, Texas, etc. It is convenient to think that we have control via policy, but nature (including human nature) win out, in my opinion. I just don't think it will go away through anything other than the natural life cycle of the virus. That could be expedited by a vaccine, but that is no guarantee.

I still have 250k deaths lodged in my head for the U. S from or with CV. By and large (except for NY) hospital capacity has been available, which was the entire point of the behavioral modifications. So, to that end I do understand and affirm the modifications to human behavior and prophylactics.

I wish they asked all positive tests if they wore masks in public. I keep hearing stories of people getting it who "did everything right". Seems to me like there is either a different infection path (protein/fecal) or there is a blood or body type that is more prone.

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