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1
Random / Re: 2020 Vision
« on: April 20, 2019, 09:28:39 AM »
OK tacticians, the report is now (mostly?) in.  Mueller wrote, “Congress may apply the obstruction laws to the President’s corrupt exercise of the powers of office,”.   That conclusion, he said, “accords with our constitutional system of checks and balances and the principle that no person is above the law.”

So, how would you proceed?

2
Random / Re: 2020 Vision
« on: April 20, 2019, 03:10:13 AM »
This article popped up on my feed this AM.  Interesting in terms of our discussions about Socialism and Democratic Socialism.  https://www.yahoo.com/news/apos-democratic-socialists-apos-sanders-090009780.html

3
Random / Re: 2020 Vision
« on: April 19, 2019, 06:01:47 AM »
I see a fundamental difference in paying people not to work rather than not taxing, or lightly taxing, some who are working.   I don't believe that the UBI proposals that are being discussed are a renaming of the current structure, but rather are discussing additional funds (more money) being given to those who are not working (or possibly the underemployed as well).  If that is the case, where are those funds coming from?  The big issue that the Democratic Socialists face is explaining the paying.  All of the "__ for all" proposals sound nice but there is zero substance given on the payment side. 

We have a group of candidates who want to play Santa Clause.  It has proven to be a successful tactic.  Trump worked it and then did it in office.  Small bump to GDP and employment for a few months and then right back to grade level.  Trillions wasted. 

It is very frustrating to watch.

4
General Discussion / Re: "Wingsurfer" for Foil/SUP
« on: April 19, 2019, 05:36:08 AM »
“It will change your life”. Tony Lagosz 1995. No nose windsurf board.

...and so it did.  But it was '92.

6
Random / Re: 2020 Vision
« on: April 18, 2019, 12:16:42 PM »
The turn this thread has taken is actually quite funny: “Robots turned me into a socialist”. :) :)

It would be terrific to have a president that would enpanel experts and thouroughly consider how this has progressed to date and how it will likely unfold going forward using the existing data to drive those processes.  Barack was certainly involved in doing so. 

Jumping straight to Universal Basic Income is 10 steps too far at this point and may ultimately prove not be a valid direction.  I don't feel like anyone knows that at this point.  Campaigning on this would certainly hand Trump the election.  Is it more important that you get to say the word Socialist than it is to have sanity in governance?  Shoot your own foot if you must.  It's that goofy looking thing on the end of your leg.  Rally the 18% of Americans who like the word Socialist into a unified knot, but don't complain when you get another 4 years of the same.

7
General Discussion / Re: "Wingsurfer" for Foil/SUP
« on: April 18, 2019, 06:38:55 AM »
Looks like I had that wrong.  Chord is 1.8 on this one.  I am not sure what the size would be meters squared.  I read ~ $800 US for a wing.  Seems reasonable.  Does that look like a kite board to you guys or something new?  River, how are you getting up?  Waterstart or stand and lift?


8
General Discussion / Re: "Wingsurfer" for Foil/SUP
« on: April 17, 2019, 11:24:35 AM »
I agree, it looks like they could make it work in much less wind.  I think I saw 1.8 Meters on the wing in one of the vids (it was definitely in the high 1's, though, so very small) .  Robby has the wing leashed to his wrist but the other guy is just leashing the wing to the board. 



This video looks like slalom gear wind to me.


9
General Discussion / Re: "Wingsurfer" for Foil/SUP
« on: April 17, 2019, 09:45:08 AM »
This one shows a couple of overhead starts.  All looks doable.  I'm in.


10
General Discussion / Re: "Wingsurfer" for Foil/SUP
« on: April 17, 2019, 09:13:29 AM »
This guy has worked out a really smooth foiling tack and he does his jibe like a duck jibe.  I'm convinced.  The gear looks ready enough.


11
Random / Re: 2020 Vision
« on: April 17, 2019, 08:05:19 AM »
Staying focused for a moment, GDP or "the economy" as a whole can move (and often does) out of step with jobs, wages, hours of most people.  Wealth changing hands between billionaires (for example) has an impact on the GDP but none on most of us.  We live in the world of available jobs, real world wages, etc.  That is where automation and early AI (if that is an acceptable term) have had an undeniable impact.  I am pleased that Mayor Pete has this as a focus point.  Not doing so seems completely out of touch and I believe that will be recognized as a major error in hindsight). I do get that there is no political sexiness to this issue at the moment.

There is a lot of over generalization in the rest of what you have written.  America isn't one guy.  If it was he would be 5'9, 200 lbs, and a Democrat.   But, more accurately it would be a 5'3 170 lb woman, also a Democrat.

We haven't really changed much since we voted Obama or Bush or Clinton into office.  We vote based on the options that are presented.  The Democrats as a whole aren't screwed, The Republicans aren't forever damaged by Trump.  Each time around a new set of candidates will emerge and we will choose from them.  Occasionally the stars will align so that we have only crappy choices...and we will choose from them.

12
Random / Re: 2020 Vision
« on: April 17, 2019, 05:52:10 AM »
Hi Area,

I also mentioned Real Estate, Retail, Transportation, Warehousing, Services.  That is, of course, not a complete list as every sector has been impacted.  One issue that complicates that matter is wealth inequality.  A huge portion of the GDP does very little to create jobs for most people.  This means that when high paying jobs (or the majority of whole sectors) that were available to most people dissapear and are not replaced with similar paying jobs, it is a flat out loss. 

Here is the US Real Gross Output by Sector:



13
Random / Re: 2020 Vision
« on: April 17, 2019, 05:07:16 AM »
I would counter and say that this change is happening relatively quickly and all around us.  We have combined AI and automation in these examples and that is fine.  A combination of these two has already eliminated the need for humans in most of our manufacturing jobs.  In the US we are producing more than ever (2.3 times more) using 1/3 less people.  Where the labor was expensive enough (read high paying jobs) to justify the investment in automation that has happened. 



Why would you assume that drivers would not be the same?  It works, its better, its coming.  That doesn't mean tomorrow but 15 years from now that chart will look like the one above.  Realtors showing houses, the last of the checkout tellers, warehouse workers.   Yes, the more routine the task, the lower the fruit lies, but this is the case for so many jobs.

This is in large why we have a high employment rate, relative wage stagnation, and an increase in the number of hours worked per individual during this extended period. 

This is all before "real" or more advanced AI has even come to pass. 

The social human element is much more situational than you are imagining.  We have no problem not chatting with a gas station attendant and filling our own tanks (most states).  I know I scan my own groceries (not that the Safeway and Home Depot staff's aren't lovely), that bank teller interaction is not often missed as we deposit checks on our phones, Many forsake the yearly company of their accountant at tax time. Almost everyone skips the entire retail experience (from greeting guy to janitor) to some degree.  We do all see a lot more of our delivery guys, though.  In fact, there are only a few situations where most would actually look forward to human interaction.  Sure, it is nice to say hi to a barrista...if the line is not too long. 


14
Random / Re: Skaters vs. haters
« on: April 16, 2019, 04:18:34 AM »
It is possible to be open minded about expression and still see a huge problem with community leadership adding credibility to artists that are glorifying and even enticing gun violence through their music.  This is very different from some of the other mentioned forms in that the thousands of gang shooting deaths each year in these communities are real.  Add Nipsey to that list. 

I ain't nothing like you fucking rap niggas
Hussle man a shooter that's a fact, nigga
Thirty-two extendos in my MAC, nigga
Spend a thousand on some t-shirts up at Saks, nigga
German plates with sheepskin on my mats, nigga
Murder rate increasing if I snap, nigga

15
Random / Re: Skaters vs. haters
« on: April 15, 2019, 08:55:33 AM »
this stuff doesnt really get me too worked up---tho if my kid got knocked down i might get worked up

try this crap tho--scary:

http://www.worldstarhiphop.com/videos/

bums me out bc it plays right into the hands of racists and hiphop haters--and, yes, there are some bad hiphop people.....

it's the new thing---dont intervene to help someone being damaged by another--get it on video and post it--the more damage the better!

The hiphop thing is hard to navigate. 

Nipsey Hustle (RIP) is a great example.  Here is a guy who was doing a lot in his community and if you looked at some of his actions you would find a lot to applaud.  He is being treated like a fallen hero but the constant message of his music is still thug life.  I can't see how it benefits the black community to embrace this.  Granted, this is white frat music now as well (which is comical) and it is the single best selling genre right now. 


And that is not the worst of it.  The new generation of mumble rappers is disorienting.  I like to be open minded, but I don't get it.  A 1/4 Billion views.   Rest with that a minute.


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