Standup Zone Forum
Stand Up Paddle => SUP General => Topic started by: Blane Chambers on December 04, 2009, 10:12:06 PM
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to go into mega, surf your freaking brains out!!!!!! Be safe out there everyone... Gonna be heavy....
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Johnny Utah: "But, I knew you wouldn't miss the fifty year storm, Bodhi."
Bodhi: "Look at it! It's a once in a lifetime opportunity, man! Let me go out there and let me get one wave, just one wave before you take me in. I mean, come on man, where I am I gonna go? Cliffs on both sides! I'm not gonna paddle my way to New Zealand! Come on, compadre. Come on!"
Australian cop at the end of the movie: "We'll get him when he comes back in!"
Johnny Utah: "He's not coming back."
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Amen... I'll watch from the cliff... ;D
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Can't wait to see the photos!
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How is the forcast?
http://www.surfnewsnetwork.com/index.php (http://www.surfnewsnetwork.com/index.php)
Monday 30-50'
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Johnny Utah: "But, I knew you wouldn't miss the fifty year storm, Bodhi."
Bodhi: "Look at it! It's a once in a lifetime opportunity, man! Let me go out there and let me get one wave, just one wave before you take me in. I mean, come on man, where I am I gonna go? Cliffs on both sides! I'm not gonna paddle my way to New Zealand! Come on, compadre. Come on!"
Australian cop at the end of the movie: "We'll get him when he comes back in!"
Johnny Utah: "He's not coming back."
Fat guy in the "Big Wednesday" movie with cigar, "Yeah.... he's takin' a lot of gas!
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Cannot wait to see the photos!
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Rumor mill is churning about the Eddie running Monday or Tues.... I don't think I've ever seen a surf report with 50ft. in it before, but here it is! I think I'll be on the beach for most of this pulse!!
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Those who think sliced bread is the best have never tried a wrap ;)
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Wrap is definitely on my mind...that's all I'm saying!!
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Pat Caldwell at the NWS writes:
December 4 is the 40 year anniversary of the largest surf episode of the last 50 years which occurred in 1969. Coincidentally, a similar pattern is brewing this year. Extreme episodes in February 1986 come to mind as well. For those and the present case, there were pairs of giant episodes a few days apart, with the latter larger. This is because the followup systems act upon existing seas and swell, increasing the wave growth potential.
Back to the present, the first of the two episodes needs to be analyzed in two parts, a remote and nearby source. A low pressure bombed, meaning central pressures dropped radically, on Wednesday near the dateline. Hurricane-force winds formed in the 315-330 degree band relative to Oahu on the west of the center, which turned to the north around 170°W. The system stayed at storm to hurricane-force through Thursday evening as it approached 170°W. The system then began tracking N to NNW and slowly weakening. This track is important for creating the existing seas upon which the followup system will act.
With an amplifying jet stream trough on Thursday nosing towards Hawaii, a strong surface front pulled gale winds to within 700 nm of Oahu by Friday morning, at which time and place the jason altimeter estimated 25 feet seas in a region about 700 nm.
Buoy 51001 and backup buoy 51101 are both showing the simultaneous arrival of the remote source with long periods of 17-21 seconds and the nearby of 12-15 seconds. Local surf is expected to ramp up sharply around sundown on Friday from 315-330 degrees.
As seen in the compass and shadow lines link above just below the table, such directions are relevant for Oahu since it is north of the Kauai shadow. Heights are expected to grow to extra-large to marginal giant surf levels pre-dawn on Saturday.
Heights in the table above refer to the moment of maximum cresting for the highest portion of the wave front, peak face, in the zones of highest refraction, which are on outer reefs under such conditions. Surf heights at top spots near shore are typically 30% less.
The wave period band on Saturday is expected to be wide, 12-20 seconds, due to the nature of the mixed source. This should make for more frequent arrival of sets, and thus coastal setup, which is the elevated nearshore sea level caused by the pile up of water from a given wave group. Such set up is called an infragravity wave and has a time interval similar to the arrival of the common higher groups, or h1' 10, which is 5-15 minutes. With the potentially higher set up than normal for the given deep water height, combining with a spring tide of 2.4' , significant wave run-up is expected with maximum centered on the morning high tide.
Both the 1969 and the present case had the second system of the pair just south of Japan that was tropically fueled, that is the remnant of a western Pacific typhoon. Moisture from the remnant of typhoon nadi was fed into a developing extratropical cyclone on Thursday. The track of 1969 and the present are very similar, moving east along 40°N. Models show the present system occluding around 170°W on Saturday, with an exceptionally broad fetch of storm to hurricane-force winds nosing to within 1000 nm of Hawaii on late Saturday. The difference with the 1969 case is that the track of the 1969 center moved further east than the expected track of the present case, to 157°W before drifting NE. The present case is modelled to drift slowly N at around 163°W. However, models predict the center of the present low pressure below 950 mb, deeper than the 1969 case. In any regards, both systems became occluded, with a slow decrease in surface winds speeds, exceptionally broad fetches, and proximity to Hawaii to make an extended period of giant surf.
The December 4, 1969 case coincided with neap tides. This coming Monday and Tuesday will still be in spring tide status, above the average spring tidal heights. Thus, the combining high tides and giant surf spell extreme wave run up potential. See the latest NWS high surf warning product for updates.
The present case is expected to abruptly rise Sunday evening from 300-315 degrees. The direction should start to feel dominant direction of 310-320 degrees on Monday, thus, no Kauai shadow. The direction should veer to 325 degrees by Tuesday. Extra-large or higher surf is expected into Wednesday centered on 330 degrees.
Mid Friday on eastern shores has elevated breakers on northern exposures. Refraction from the above mentioned sources should keep elevated conditions through the period on north exposures.
See the latest NWS state weather discussion regarding the winds. No significant local windswell expected.
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Take lots of photo's please for all of us that can not be there.
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Please keep the camera's rolling guys. We want to share this event with you. Hopefully we wil also see some video footage.
Be safe guys!!
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there were two SUP'ers out in Waimea today. I'm taking off from work on Monday, heading out early as hell...I'll be on land tho with my shitty tele lens
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oh and here's surfline's report...FUUUUUUUUUUUUUU
http://www.surfline.com/surf-news/waimea-puts-in-its-biggest-performance-of-winter-more-on-the-way_39239/1/ (http://www.surfline.com/surf-news/waimea-puts-in-its-biggest-performance-of-winter-more-on-the-way_39239/1/)
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*update* Yesterday was pretty solid and Waimea, Makaha and outer reefs were awake but not giant yet. This is just a warmup swell for the real deal coming tomorrow, Tues and Wednesday... Gonna be huge... I don't think like 1969 as the system warbled more north but it will be over 30' Hawaiian for sure...
Lots of people were shooting yesterday at Waimea. Allen Mozo was shooting from the water at Makaha and he got beautiful shots! I'll post when I get some... Mel Pu'u, Craig Davidson, Stewart Ferriman, Brian Keaulana and Keone Downing were stand outs... Waves were big and perfect there. Brian and Keone were on regular lay down guns getting ready for the Eddie Aikau.
Ikaika Kalama on a brand new 10-6 I made him. First time he rode it yesterday. He was charging and representing the stand up community well. Borrowed this picture from the public gallery on Surf News Network. Shot by Joem Costes of surferpix.com (http://surfnewsnetwork.com/images/content/thumbnails/type_10_content_37_rand_ruzmr03vkuovgxb1zdh64lft8u0nzmncwmukozmx_700x550.jpg)
One of the few he got alone. It was a zoo out there and it's always a party wave when it's small Waimea like this. Over 20' the crowd thins way out!
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WOW :o :o :o
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Keep the pictures coming !
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Thanks for the update. keep the pic's comin
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I'd call that 80' on the California scale :o
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Nacho Libre?
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Hooah!!
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THis is the camera to be watching ;)
http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/waimea-bay-hawaii_4755/ (http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/waimea-bay-hawaii_4755/)
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the eddie is a no go for monday. next call tues 7am
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the call will be made at 6 am and broadcast on the site.
Today was really messy. I didn't see any SUP'ers out there.
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So, I heard EDDIE is a GO!
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The waimea hd cam on surfline is sweet!! They are doing 2 weeks free trial... I watched one of the jetskis outrun a massive whitewash wall on a set. Hard to work with that firing.
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While the Eddie was getting under way, Tiffany Paglinawan was dodging bombs... She got a couple big ones too!
(http://photos.imageevent.com/torturechambers/9909andbeyond/websize/Copy%20of%20DSC_0260.JPG)
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wesside over the circus anyday...i wish sam was here... ;D
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hey guys..who is the SUP'er in this teaser?
http://www.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/video/video.php?v=192627787123 (http://www.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/video/video.php?v=192627787123)
(sorry for the facebook link....I could not find the vids on their websites)
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Looks like Kealii Mamala. He looks like he's riding an old 12' gun prototype from a couple years ago I made for myself... If it is the board, I thought that board was dead and gone!
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It might be dead and gone now though :-)
Did you go out, and when can we see the pics? :-)
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Speaking of Makaha, where is Sam Pa'e?
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:'( :-\ :-[ >:(