Standup Zone Forum
General => Random => Topic started by: Admin on March 18, 2020, 04:49:28 AM
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Hi guys,
This is certainly one of the most unique periods in our lifetimes. The health concerns are rightfully at the forefront, a heated election season is in full swing, the markets are incredibly volatile and we are seeing lifestyle disruptions that are new to most of us. Truth known, its alarming, concerning and fascinating at the same time.
It seems like every company I have ever done business with has emailed this week with a range of modifications (many quite radical). I am interested to hear how this is impacting your businesses and/or employment? What are you all seeing/projecting?
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I have 3 small businesses that are currently employing people. A civil engineering firm, a land surveying company and an LLC with commercial real estate (an old office building with some long term lessors).
I am incredibly disappointed with my state's governmental response from an economic perspective to the virus. They have put forth no plan, no end date, not even a "here is what we will do when we see x in infections." The only response each day is to decrease liberties more, without providing any scientific data to back it up. It looks to me like one-upsmanship from one state or jurisdiction to the next. No governor wants to be the one who had a virus spread because they didn't impose a curfew like the next state over.
Consumer confidence is shook. I have a meeting tomorrow that I guarantee will be cancelling a 3/4 million dollar design project for my civil firm. We have enough work booked to see us through mid June, but I fully expect to be telling my staff at the end of this month that they should shine up their resumes. At some point I want to see the cost/benefit decision matrix we are following (because I do not think there is one). A lot of people will die from this virus near and long term, and IMO a stronger economy keeps people healthier than a recession.
I'm normally very optimistic business wise (one of my greatest gifts and faults) but I have a really bad feeling about the end of Q2 and all of Q3 driving us into a prolonged recession. I have already started planning for layoffs/shuttering. Which is a terrible feeling - my staff are my friends and it is no fun laying off your friends.
I would much prefer to follow the S. Korea model. They basically have soft quarantine in place, they want everyone wearing masks and they are dutifully protecting the old and weak. They let businesses and people decide for themselves what to do and how to approach the situation while asking for everyone's cooperation and effort. I actually trust Americans to do the right thing, I feel like a lot of people do not. S. Korea does have more testing so that they can pinpoint quarantine easier and I believe we will get to that point sooner rather than later.
Would love for someone to talk me down off the ledge!
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As an Alaskan - I totally hope they are going to send everyone - EVERYONE - a check. The impact of the dividend goes all across the economy here. People buy stupid crap - whatever - do what you want - it really pushes the economy. We never seem to spend enough on infrastructure - we could use a stupidly huge, expensive bridge to the Kenai area - bigger than the Mac at the top of Michigan - at least if we had blown our cash on a giant stupid bridge in the 70's/80's, we would have a bridge now.
But the cash to the individual, instead of the banks and big business? Heck yeah.
Anyway - I'm in a bandwidth business - my company has 2 undersea systems to Seattle (with legs to the Southeast) , two systems to the north/center, a link to Prudhoe Bay, a combo fiber-microwave to Western Alaska - and I'm working from home. Fixing a 100G circuit the last few days , need to fix a 10G for s special customer - and I'm working from home. Mostly. Might have to drive to a site, might send another tech.
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A large # of my friends work as chef's and bartenders and with the high rents here in San Diego they're not looking forward to the inevitable layoffs. Others are small business owners and some don't think they'll be able wither the storm when this is all over.
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Our business is in the Caribbean, and as more and more flights are being cancelled and cruise ships being turned away, my Caribbean business has started to feel the impact of the virus. Although only a few islands have announced positive cases of the virus, the islands are playing it safe as they should.
Most islands are on egg shells fearing the inevitable.
I was in Barbados yesterday and it appeared to be business as usual, however later that day it was announced the first 2 confirmed cases of the virus, an American tourist and a Barbadian national returning from the U.S. My taxi driver told me Virgin Airways from the UK and Air Canada are cancelling flights to and from Barbados. JetBlue may also be reducing flights.
Barbados also has turned away a couple of cruise ships from docking for fear of infected passengers.
Aruba has basically stopped all shipments into the island except necessities, so many of our orders are on hold or have been cancelled.
Bermuda just cancelled all flights from JFK and Miami and Cruises cancelled for next 60 days.
Same goes for St.Thomas, cruises cancelled for the next 60 days but airport still open.
So yes, I am slowly seeing the trickle down affect of the virus and fingers crossed
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Sharing this out of trying to offer some hope.
While concerned, my small business which works remotely in tech is not that affected for now. We work mostly on media and entertainment clients and that sector tends to stay strong in hard times as people stay home and consume content. Also, once we recover even a bit there will be huge investment in changing processes and preparation just like after 9/11. There will be money to be made.
I also hope we flatten the curve as yes, we must balance our economic security against health. I actually feel confident we are. If you look at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ you can see countries like South Korea and China who are farther along the curve and see how this plays out with a good plan. That’s helped me feel better for my friends who are in the service sector.
If you have a job, spend and donate what you can. We will get through this for sure. Even something as small as paying your housekeeper to stay home is a small, but nice thing you can do. I’ll also try to start ordering takeout next week once my wife feels better about things.
We will make it, but if you look at other countries it’s good we’re taking this seriously for a bit. Here’s to a flat and quick curve for the world.
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My wife has had $280,000 in cancellations (group sales manager for a large hotel here in town) in the last couple days. This is going to be devastating to the local economy. HEAVILY dependent on tourism and travel and with this being the 400th anniversary of the town there were huge expectations for income. The planning for it has been in place for many years.
https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/07/04/2020-is-plymouths-year-start-making-plans-for-pilgrim-mage/
We have a beautiful waterfront and there have been many improvements and lots of $$$s spent in preparation for this. All the bars and restaurants in town (127) are closed except for take out or delivery. Even the liquor stores are going to take-out so you know it's serious.... :P Some of the hotels are closed....more will be soon. Very limited retail hours. I can't imagine the pressure on folks that are already just barely making it. All the service industry jobs are filing for unemployment. She was just watching Trumps meeting with all the high level execs from all the large hoteliers and such. Everything is shutting down. The ripples from this will resonate for a long while.
I'm not all doom and gloom though. The locals that can are helping where possible...ordering out, buying gift certificates, local firemans union gave the crews $8,000 to spend on meals during shift. If you got it spend it is the mentality somewhat. I also think there could be an incredible rebound coming. This is no question a test of the spirit of all of us. I have to imagine that every resource of every lab with any work to do in the field is working at beating this some way. When it comes...and I think it will....imagine the collective weight off the shoulders of the world. I wish the assholes in charge weren't pointing their fingers at each other now. If a reason to cooperate ever existed this is it.
I'm very glad I moved the lions share of my 401k into money markets too just before the shit really hit the fan.
We'll take a hit financially but we'll be OK. I'm more concerned about if there are ventilators available when I get this thing. I'm definitely high risk. Asthma all my life, Pneumonia more times than I can remember, COPD diagnosed 2 years ago and I have high blood pressure.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.25.20027664v1.full.pdf
My oldest daughter is also a nurse so I worry about her exposure as well. The business concerns are profound and suck but are definitely way secondary in concern.
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It would be nice to think this is going to be a short term thing, but I believe that is unlikely. If/when China relaxes its draconian measures the infection rate is likely to spike again. True for any country until there is sufficient immunity, either from people having recovered from the disease or from an effective vaccine or treatment. From that perspective, if you're planning for your business or your personal finances you probably need to look at ways to live with a new normal that might span one to two years, which is the likely timeframe for a broadly distributed vaccine even given the urgent nature and the fast starts--there was some good work already underway on SARS and MERS vaccines which can be repurposed to Covid-19, which is genetically very similar.
One adaption that is likely is reactive social isolation, which is simply restarting social distancing measures when the infection rate spikes back up. We could get the economy back to something a little more normal with that. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/
Spending a little more time on social media than I usually do has simply stunned me. There sure are a lot of fucking idiots. I give people some slack for the "whistling in the dark" syndrome, meaning they're scared so they're saying stupid stuff. But geez. The conspiracy theorists and anti-vax folks are going bonkers. I've been reading some research on conspiracy theory and why some people are so susceptible to it. I think it helps immunize me a bit that I always assume I'm wrong about everything--most of the real dipshits are completely convinced they are right. Even just a little science background will give you healthy doubt about anything you "know". Most of what I've been reading is dry as last week's biscuit, but this article is a pretty good summary. https://getpocket.com/explore/item/why-people-believe-in-conspiracy-theories-and-how-to-change-their-minds?utm_source=pocket-newtab I don't buy the part about changing people's minds, but the rest is good.
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Pono, exactly right on the “weird new normal” for a bit. I’d expect them to monitor and shut down hot spots for a while. But let’s be honest, even if people just changed a few habits we’d be in better shape overall.
If we come out of this with improved cleaning protocols, people stopping shaking hands and just observing the most minimal of cleanliness we stand to change a lot. Also, not to terrify anyone but this is a good test run for a truly deadly one that’s sure to come someday.
I’ll bet there won’t be issues getting research funding after this. Until we forget again and decide to cut science funding.
Idiots all around. I can’t believe that some people just refuse to read or research even the simplest of topics let alone something that could kill them.
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I was watching a little animated video today on the Dunning-Krugger effect. I'm kind of surprised it needed study to understand that people overestimate their intelligence and abilities. Of course the stupid think they're smart because they're too dumb to know better. There's also a lot of crazies out there that are intelligent.
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Spending a little more time on social media than I usually do has simply stunned me. There sure are a lot of fucking idiots. I give people some slack for the "whistling in the dark" syndrome, meaning they're scared so they're saying stupid stuff. But geez. The conspiracy theorists and anti-vax folks are going bonkers.
I belong to a couple of closed “Jokes Groups” on Facebook and ran into a post from one of these guys. At first I thought it was supposed to be funny. But when I linked onto their home page, I realized they weren’t kidding. They were serious. There were others also posting this type of stuff on this persons home page. This is beyond scary.
Here is the post they put up:
Do you Know the Corona virus is not a virus it’s 5G that’s actually killing people and not a “virus” they are trying to get u scared of a fake virus when its the 5G towers being built around the world. China was the first to have over 100,000 5G towers, and people in Wuhan were the first to get affected by it. This 5G shit was planned years ago to depopulate us and keep as at a low vibrational state. Bill gates is the one who created this along with the weird entities who control this world. He also is creating a vaccine for this so called corona virus that they are going to try to enforce on everyone. These Vaccines are actually chips that they are trying to implant in billions of people across the world. They can literally monitor all ya actions, movements, whereabouts, and thoughts through these lil micro chips. Not only that they can end ya life through them micro chips with the push of a button. They know in order to have millions of people take these vaccines they first need to create a fake virus. Smh humans are brainwashed enough to believe what the news and media puts out there. WAKE UP and start researching the truths behind these weird agendas they keep creating. Y’all really out there with masks on WHEN IT AINT NO VIRUS. These Chinese doctors and people you see on TV that’s so called affected by the virus ARE ALL ACTORS, this shit is scripted out LITERALLY. It’s 5G towers that’s killing people and no mask in the world can prevent them levels of radiation from frying your brain. If we don’t wake tf up NOW this really gonna kill us smh but of course y’all gonna think I’m crazy for saying this too right ??? Robots is what y’all are, legit programmed robots it’s called population control & the chip is the mark of the beast
The terrifying part is that these people vote. And reproduce!
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Yea, it’s scary to see the weakness of the human in action.
My old work place, the airlines are devastated. Operating at +-20% capacity right now, and estimating to be 40-50% reduced in size a year from now. And that is the only companies left standing, those few held up by the government. I would not be surprised to see some fall back to being a nationalized company.
With the coming unemployment wave maybe the basic minimum income will get a real consideration.
I do not think the comparisons to 9/11 work. That was a one day attack. The is a war and when looked at globally one that could take a year to reach the ‘peace’ period when the rebuilding will start
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It is clear that this is is not limited to service, tourism and travel businesses which received the first wave initial attention. It will be very few individuals/families who will not have put planned or potential big purchases on hold. Luxury goods sales tend to travel with the markets. Manufacturing globally is in steep decline. In store retail is in a similar decline. All the businesses which support and rely on these are also impacted. This holds true for almost all but the few rare sectors or niches that will benefit from this massive and sudden global change.
Is it calloused to be considering this at a time when health is at risk? No. The two cannot be separated. Almost 80% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. Any reduction in the ability to produce and provide the basics causes stress. We hear spotty reassurances of covered lost wages and a get-by check but the justified worries are there for the longer term. A lot more people have entered the group that is really concerned about the basic essentials food, prescriptions, housing. Commerce is also tied to social order and peace.
What we are seeing now in terms of disease numbers isn't representative of today, it is a report card on where we were two weeks ago. I am concerned that the business side is the same. We have to balance appropriate action with overreaction. Both are dangerous.
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What we are seeing now in terms of disease numbers isn't representative of today, it is a report card on where we were two weeks ago. I am concerned that the business side is the same. We have to balance appropriate action with overreaction. Both are dangerous.
Agree. I do not think it is irresponsible or immoral to discuss the economy during a viral epidemic. The leading cause of death in the US will be heart disease this year and next year, it will not be CV19. Bad economy = cheap food = bad eating habits = sicker people = more death. A reaction that drives a recession is as dangerous as CV19.
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I don't think it's immoral at all. I think the financial ruin will likely kill more in the long run than the disease itself does. And the pain of it will be far more widespread. I only mentioned that the financial concern is secondary to me personally right now because if we don't effectively flatten the curve and I get this at the wrong time I might not be here 6 months from now. We're also fortunate that we have no debt whatsoever.
It's likely that we may have to help my youngest daughter financially in the near future. Something that never would have happened under normal circumstances....they just bought a big new house. They need their two incomes. My daughter is in marketing/event planning and I can see her being out of a job shortly.
The whack jobs have definitely come out in force for this. They're proud of the tin foil hats now.
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I don't think it's immoral at all. I think the financial ruin will likely kill more in the long run than the disease itself does. And the pain of it will be far more widespread. I only mentioned that the financial concern is secondary to me personally right now because if we don't effectively flatten the curve and I get this at the wrong time I might not be here 6 months from now. We're also fortunate that we have no debt whatsoever.
It's likely that we may have to help my youngest daughter financially in the near future. Something that never would have happened under normal circumstances....they just bought a big new house. They need their two incomes. My daughter is in marketing/event planning and I can see her being out of a job shortly.
That wasn't directed at you Stoney. I hadn't picked that up in your comment at all. It was mostly self justification for the post. I feel a a pang of guilt considering the financial side of this with the real pain and concern that this is causing and another pang from my being riveted to it.
It strikes me that this happened at a uniquely bad time. The original (prolonged) message from the top that we need not be concerned followed by a possibly equally damaging digital/social/emotional/pressure inspired over-response. I don't say that to be backwards thinking or political. It is clear that the administration is taking this seriously now. Our response is forming and reforming as we discuss this. I don't think the Twitter response make sense. The best course of action seems like it will be a lot more nuanced than the the extremes that we are being bent by.
I do think that everyone should be urging the high risk groups (existing relevant conditions) to self-isolate and the govt and community focus should be on supporting that choice. That group is at very high risk. It may make more sense to have the rest of us exercising very heightened precautions but maintaining activity, work, travel, education and life. There are a lot of fingers to this but it is currently seeming like a case of first too little, then too much.
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I think we'll likely waiver back and forth a bit. This is going to need adjusting as we understand more. Testing will hopefully let us focus on where quarantine is needed. The near term is going to be rocky though. I think you're right...and I'd be happy to remain self isolated if it allowed us to both slow the disease enough and not kill the economy.
Big problem is that we have people of all ages not self isolating now. I ranted on FB today on a local page about something my son-in-law told me. He manages a hugely popular liquor store here in town. All day long he has old folks coming in for lottery tickets. One came in to bring some cans back for a 60 cent redemption. And it's not turning out to be so age centric hear in the states supposedly. Anyone with underlying conditions is in danger from this. I'm screwed with my mix of them.
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We have been thinking about you Stoney. This has to be more than a little worrisome.
We have amazing National and World disease resources staffed by a community that lives this stuff. You would think that we would follow their suggestions but we seem to be oscilating above and below them. Here are the guidelines from the NIH, CDC and WHO.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/index.html
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public
https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/03/19/to-beat-covid-19-social-distancing-is-a-must/
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the wife has RA - another immune disease and her meds are an infusion every 6 months (at startling cost) - there's no "stop your meds for awhile and deal with the symptoms" - and she's terrified she's going to die. It's the unknowns. Will we get it? Do we have it now? Is it all over the place? No tests, no sure plans for testing, no sure plans for how to prepare, no indication that the "herd" is doing what it needs to do except buy out the stores like Y2K finally hit (maybe it has). We already wash frequently, wipe down shopping carts, reduce exposure- "just the flu" is plenty risky. The hard truth is we can't shut down the world too much longer - farmers HAVE to plant soon. Fuel has to get to the tractors. Food HAS to be distributed. This is especially clear in Alaska - the state absolutely depends on food/good shipped up. We get 3 large container ships a week - our stores tend to have 3 days of good on the shelves. Some stuff in warehouses - but food? They try to buy just what they need, as they need it. It won't take much disruption to have a truly scary stuff happen.
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Deep, has your wife’s doctor discussed the possibility of using low-dose Naltrexone?
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I looked up LDN, that's pretty interesting. I'd never heard of that treatment protocol before.
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No - and I thought I knew about all there was about RA :D She's be diagnose about 15 years now. Looking into it......
SIde note - about 10 years ago, went shopping for stove - chatting with the sales guy - older/60's, nice guy. Chatting about stuff - her RA came. He was devastated that a young person (40's ) has RA - he had lived through it with his wife. I mean, he about cried right there on the spot, had to get himself together. It still really sucks - but it used to have almost no treatments.
More side note -people with one auto-immune disorder tend to get more. Do not look this up unless you are prepared - I mean it - Bulbous Pemphagoids - she has a case of that too. Mild so far - the same horrendously expensive drug is at least a 2-fer - it covers both.
Thanks Bean :D Off to learn more stuff.
Oh - business related - just worked over all day yesterday 6am to 8pm, got 3-ish hours sleep, got up at 12am, to 5am - got up at 6:45am back to town. This rushing bandwidth expansion is a pain in the butt - and most internet providers are all offering to up speeds, up total bandwidth, waive fees - going to be a rough few weeks.
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Its funny, I was talking to a doc just a couple days ago about the virus-crisis and he just happened to mention the potential benefit of Naltrexone in a low dose. It would be great if you could get some benefit from it.
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I find myself frequently wrestling with our current situation. Whether we are being over reactive, or under reactive. I definitely have some empathy for our political leaders.
On one hand, i don't want to see our country have a total economic collapse, and end up looking like Venezuela. And on the other hand, i don't want our mortality rates looking like Italy's (or worst!!!). We are starting to see the some localized exponential increases of cases and deaths. New York drives this point home for me. The reality of "worst case scenario" is now staring us right in the face.
I've come to accept that the US, and the world, is not going to look the same no matter we do. Some major industries are going to change, some drastically.
One of my sons will see his business disappear. He will adapt by going in a new direction, bottom line it going to be hard for him but he understands this reality. My other son a sports cameraman just got hired to a news cameraman/tech producer position. The timing was perfect for him, but regardless that type of change, change was going to happen.
Unless the Hydroxychloroquine /azithromycin medication combo, or some other off the shelf medication works, and works ASAP, the world will be a different place. If one of these meds work, great. In that case, bail-outs of companies could be feasible. But, if there is no cure in the immediate future, what would be the point of bailing out these enviably changing industries?
If the government is going to help the economy. I say put the Bail-out money in the hands of the people, and let them spend accordingly. Put enough money in their hands, and they will spend it. It won't be on airline tickets, ship cruses, maybe not even on restaurants, hotels, bars, or entertainment, at least not in the same way of the past. But, we will find something to spend it on, we always do. And whatever it is, it will see growth, and the economy will move forward. I really hate the Gov printing money (Q E). But this time, yeah it's understandable.
Bill Ackman on CNBC makes some very good points here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FItEjc6VtuU
Anybody else thinking this weeks market action will be the next level?
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Oregon has been vacillating about how to manage our response. The Governor and Portland's mayor don't agree so there has been quite a bit of confusion. I posted the current guidelines below. These are getting reviewed today and may be updated to disallow Manufacturing and Construction. Consider that for a second. Any one of these entire sectors being shuttered nationwide would be an enormous economic event. As a whole, however, what has already occurred is way outside of anything we have experienced in our lifetimes.
https://www.oregonlive.com/business/2020/03/coronavirus-brings-oregon-a-sudden-economic-catastrophe-the-worst-week-ever.html
https://www.opb.org/news/article/oregon-coronavirus-stay-at-home-stay-healthy/
Coronavirus (Covid-19)
Latest Oregon Update
Governor Kate Brown has issued an executive order on social distancing measures for Oregon. These guidelines are effective March 17 and continuing through April 14, 2020 (and may be extended as needed) in response to the nationwide Coronavirus outbreak. These guidelines include:
Cancellation of all events and gatherings larger than 25 people (grocery stores, retail stores, workplaces are not included).
Gatherings of 10 people or more are highly discouraged.
Restaurants, bars and other establishments that offer food or beverages are restricted to carry out and delivery only, no onsite consumption.
All other businesses should evaluate practices and consider options.
Oregon Public Schools are to remain closed through April 28, 2020.
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The pandemic has shut my census work down. I was an enumerator in 2010 so it was a rehire for me. Back then it was all classroom training and we recorded data on paper. It's mostly on a gov't issued laptop now which is way cooler and easier.
After completing 16 hours of online training, and another 16 hours of classroom training, plus 3 hours of field training, and 3 and a 1/2 full days canvassing in Barnegat Light (town near me that has all mail delivery to PO boxes) I have been pulled from the field due to the Corona-virus, along with all other US Census workers.
Doesn't look like we'll be going back anytime soon (tentative date is 4/1). Too bad, I was killing it! I guess it's for the best but most of the houses are empty down there anyway so I was not in contact with hardly anyone.
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Marc.... I would get large letters on a T-shirt: Soy no esta la Migra. Those houses might not be empty.* That little bag looks like you are handing out 'Workers Daily' pamphlets for Bernie.
Jim
*I remember hearing ~30% of the pop. of Ocracoke Is. in that last hurricane habla Espanol.
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Our "Stay Home" order came last night, going in place tomorrow. Essential businesses are allowed to stay open. My businesses (engineering and land surveying) both support several of the "essential businesses" but are not listed directly.
Our main customers are involved with manufacturing (wood products), construction, infrastructure and education. With construction projects ongoing we really can't leave our post at this time. I am working on a work plan to cover it. Mostly shutting down public interaction except via telcon/skype and having employees work from home when possible, following all CDC guidelines for cleanliness. I am sending an e-mail to the state to verify I am okay to stay open.
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There is a crazy portion of this "2 Trillion dollar" stimulus that deserves a lot of attention. Check out the substantially larger figures actually available for leveraging loans to (big) business.
https://www.rollcall.com/2020/03/25/stimulus-bill-gives-fed-direct-loan-funds-with-few-strings/
The Fed has created six credit facilities in the last two weeks — in addition to slashing interest rates to almost zero and starting to buy unlimited amounts of U.S. Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities from banks — and has plans to open more in an effort to keep U.S. banks and businesses solvent while much of the economy shuts down to slow the pandemic’s spread.
While the Fed works regularly with banks and other nonbank financial firms, its actions to provide direct credit to other corporations is a step the central bank didn't take even during the 2008 financial crisis.
The $454 billion would fund those credit facilities. Senate Banking Chairman Michael D. Crapo, R-Idaho., said in a statement that the funds would support $4 trillion in Fed lending.
On a press call Wednesday with reporters, Sen. Patrick J. Toomey, R-Pa., offered a smaller amount, saying the Fed could leverage those funds into $2 trillion to $3 trillion in loans.
When making loans and loan guarantees out of the $454 billion fund, the Treasury would need to restrict borrowers from buying back stocks or paying out dividends until a year after the loan is repaid. The borrowers would also have to agree to executive compensation limits for the life of the loans. But the bill would allow Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to waive those restrictions “upon a determination that such a waiver is necessary to protect the interests of the Federal Government.”
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What are the airlines and others in the travel industry going to use the bailout money for? No one is traveling because there are travel restrictions, not because there is a lack of funds. I doubt that they going to give it to the employees they've laid off.
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I have picked up new work this week, but it was all for projects that already have momentum. Calls for new work, or ongoing work are obviously at a dead stop. If the economy does not start moving for real in a month, I will be laying off in Mid May. 20 families depend on me for their livelihoods.
If the stimulus package ever gets approved there is supposed to be small business loans that are forgivable if you keep up with rents and payroll. This would be a big deal for my businesses. 3-4 months of working capital is a big deal. I wonder how many strings will be attached?
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If the stimulus package ever gets approved there is supposed to be small business loans that are forgivable if you keep up with rents and payroll. This would be a big deal for my businesses. 3-4 months of working capital is a big deal. I wonder how many strings will be attached?
The article below says that the stimulus includes 8 weeks of support for small business. It will be interesting to see how the SBA determines that amount for applicants. This has the potential to crush seasonal businesses that are asymmetrically reliant on this time of year.
We watched Bill Gates in an excellent "town hall" discussion yesterday. He is proposing a complete 6-8 week shutdown of the entire country. Lots of US regions are still just getting started in terms of virus acceleration.
The uniqueness of this situation is very striking. We will most likely have never tried to restart the economy from such a flat-lined state. It is hard to imagine that this also won't have a unique group of yet to be seen hurdles.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-good-scenario-could-be-20-of-small-businesses-fail-212105855.html
According to Mills, currently a Senior Fellow at the Harvard Business School, small businesses have just around 27 days on average in cash. Restaurants have even less, with 17 days of cash on average. And if you run out of cash, Mills said, "you're dead."
“I think that this is going to be maybe 20%, even 30% of small businesses could fail even in a good scenario,” she said.
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I have picked up new work this week, but it was all for projects that already have momentum. Calls for new work, or ongoing work are obviously at a dead stop. If the economy does not start moving for real in a month, I will be laying off in Mid May. 20 families depend on me for their livelihoods.
If the stimulus package ever gets approved there is supposed to be small business loans that are forgivable if you keep up with rents and payroll. This would be a big deal for my businesses. 3-4 months of working capital is a big deal. I wonder how many strings will be attached?
There doesn't appear to be many strings attached and loans don't need to be collateralized, however, the total loan limit is 2.5x average monthly payroll. It's more likely that the repayment terms will be 10 year low interest (4%), not forgivable. The SBA assistance is not as generous as the aid provided to the large corporate relief recipients.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/small-businesses-get-help-in-coronavirus-relief-bill-but-is-it-enough.html
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I have seen the application for the SBA loan Payroll Protection Program as of this morning. If you have a business banker and you want this program, call them right now. The banks will be overloaded with requests as soon as this hits officially. Call your accountant too, they will be the most competent at filling this out. Mine has completed my forms already this AM.
It is pretty simple actually. You fill out the SBA form, and then provide the requisite documentation to the bank. Your estimated loan is 2 months of payroll. Typical documentation for forgiveness will be 3 months payroll tax forms for 2020, 2019 tax return, and account information for rents/utilis. Your bank will determine if you qualify for reimbursement at the end of the 2 months, the SBA has deputized them to do this.
If this works the way it is supposed to, it will beat the shit out of the last stimulus package for small businesses. The Obama stimulus package gave all the money to corporations and to government shovel-ready projects that weren't shovel-ready. I feel like maybe we can springboard out of this a little better than I initially thought.
We did have to lay off 3 people from our survey firm as they were mostly doing residential lot jobs and that is not essential. They are fine with the layoff plus the extra $600. Hopefully construction will be one of the first things to start back up. I have a friend who has a pretty big daycare business and they are falling apart. They run 3 daycares in different regional areas, and only have 5 kids to watch, when they normally watch about 150. They laid off all staff except a few, and with the easy unemployment are very worried that they will have to train an entire new staff, once they can restart. Plus their monthly revenues dropped oh 95 %.
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I have seen the application for the SBA loan Payroll Protection Program as of this morning. If you have a business banker and you want this program, call them right now. The banks will be overloaded with requests as soon as this hits officially. Call your accountant too, they will be the most competent at filling this out. Mine has completed my forms already this AM.
It is pretty simple actually. You fill out the SBA form, and then provide the requisite documentation to the bank. Your estimated loan is 2 months of payroll. Typical documentation for forgiveness will be 3 months payroll tax forms for 2020, 2019 tax return, and account information for rents/utilis. Your bank will determine if you qualify for reimbursement at the end of the 2 months, the SBA has deputized them to do this.
If this works the way it is supposed to, it will beat the shit out of the last stimulus package for small businesses. The Obama stimulus package gave all the money to corporations and to government shovel-ready projects that weren't shovel-ready. I feel like maybe we can springboard out of this a little better than I initially thought.
We did have to lay off 3 people from our survey firm as they were mostly doing residential lot jobs and that is not essential. They are fine with the layoff plus the extra $600. Hopefully construction will be one of the first things to start back up. I have a friend who has a pretty big daycare business and they are falling apart. They run 3 daycares in different regional areas, and only have 5 kids to watch, when they normally watch about 150. They laid off all staff except a few, and with the easy unemployment are very worried that they will have to train an entire new staff, once they can restart. Plus their monthly revenues dropped oh 95 %.
Did you see this part?
On March 27, 2020, President Trump signed into law the CARES Act, which provided additional assistance for small business owners and non-profits, including the opportunity to get up to a $10,000 Advance on an Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL). This Advance may be available even if your EIDL application was declined or is still pending, and will be forgiven.
If you wish to apply for the Advance on your EIDL, please visit www.SBA.gov/Disaster as soon as possible to fill out a new, streamlined application. In order to qualify for the Advance, you need to submit this new application even if you previously submitted an EIDL application. Applying for the Advance will not impact the status or slow your existing application.
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A different perspective here, and a bit of survivors guilt for the moment. Hopefully it’s seen as a bright spot and not a flex.
Since I posted, we’ve remained stable. My little company has 18 people at various levels of employment and will not have to lay people off due to the nature of our business (remote consultancy and software sales and development for the media business) unless this changes course radically.
This Summer when things are predicted to pick up (in some industries at least) companies will address their vulnerabilities like they did after 9/11. Not comparing the events but 9/11 changed the way companies viewed disaster recovery for their data. Now most companies can lose a location or all locations and simply set up shop again. Paper is gone, the cloud and other tech provides resilience that we didn’t have before.
The next change will be remote work. A great piece about NYC discussed whether or not those companies who pay for hundreds of offices in Manhattan will keep all those offices now that they know that many jobs can be remote. Will LA continue the traffic snarls or simply adapt. I’ll bet more than a few do.
I’m talking about knowledge work here, not construction or hospitality or tourism but how will this not accelerate the move of jobs to those areas. No, it all can’t become remote, but a lot of my friends see how we are faring and are adapting. More class inequality coming? Sure.
A friend just moved to a robotics company that builds a hotel concierge robot. Need towels? Want a snack? Need room service? They send the robot. You lease them for way less than that extra person on the clock all night. How will that not become a norm now? And with it, small jobs go away. Smaller hotels provide lower level of convenience, and the tech providers and larger chains who can afford this make more money. People in tech, who are largely left of center, are enabling a shift that the right permits. Good luck bootstrapping when all the jobs you do while you figure out a career go away, right?
We won’t be the same after this. But it’s not all bad. But I think that economically this will change us too. Those examples above are “just capitalism.” My company thriving while others tank, my employees making money they can use to buy stock and real estate for the ride back up is just capitalism. How long is that ok to the average American when they start to see this? How many of you are reading this and having a reaction? Are red blooded Americans going to defend my ability to prosper while they struggle just because I chose a different career? They have to under our current beliefs. Or, will they see the inequality baked into this whole thing?
We don’t openly lay out our politics here and I’m glad for it. But a Conservative laying off employees while a Liberal makes money is going to be more prevalent than I think is fair or sustainable. Red states are just as valuable to America as Blue. But If those policies that make that trend possible are at their root conservative how does this continue to work?
Also, how long can small government believers take grants and forgivable loans from the government they want to limit? It’s got to be strange. And how long can liberal capitalists pay more tax to support that? Right? It’s a crazy thing when you think it through.
Like I said, survivors guilt here. But I can’t see this not fundamentally making some people question the way our whole system is set up. I hope we can all evaluate things, pull together as a country, and make the recovery a chance to stop fighting and work on the common good.
This isn’t directed at anyone here. SUPLeave, I don’t know your politics and I don’t care. You’re a human and a surfer and that’s all I care about lol.
This thread really cracked me open and that happened after reading all the threads, not just yours. But we have similar sized staffs and you are in the middle so to speak, Good for now, but uncertainty possible later. I relate, but have less uncertainty. So please don’t read into the order of the posts, I just was affected by your concern for your team and saw myself in that for sure. I’m not sure how I feel about all this yet. But I am allowing it to evolve.
If anyone has some thoughts from a more right of center take, I’d love to hear them as I’m not as clear on how rational conservatives see the business side of this. I think, like the left, the right often is loudest at the edges while America sits in the middle, mostly confused by the shouting and left to deal with the reality of life.
I’m also going to keep posting examples of how tech is driving inequality. Some days I’m literally moving money from one group/class to another and I don’t have an answer for what to do about that. I’m literally trying to help a friend transition out of a job that my company will help eliminate very soon. But I can’t do that for 100,000 people.
Y’all take care and wash your hands. I can’t wait to see you all on the water, where we belong.