Author Topic: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight  (Read 1595 times)

surfcowboy

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 2460
    • View Profile
Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #15 on: March 10, 2017, 06:46:43 PM »
Pono, I think you're right on it. I have a buddy who invests in energy and pipelines and I've been having friendly discussions warning him about what I see coming. He's super conservative and doesn't seem to be watching the horizon. He also obviously hasn't been in an electric car other than a golf cart.

It's not going to be the electric car that takes us off petroleum. It's going to be the autonomous car. That's mass transit that's custom and available and private enough for Americans. Once anyone does the numbers on Uber costs vs ownership in many markets it just doesn't make sense.

On business travel I rent cars about half as much as I used to.

peterp

  • Sunset Status
  • ****
  • Posts: 336
    • View Profile
Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #16 on: March 10, 2017, 09:02:15 PM »
Pono, I think you're right on it. I have a buddy who invests in energy and pipelines and I've been having friendly discussions warning him about what I see coming. He's super conservative and doesn't seem to be watching the horizon. He also obviously hasn't been in an electric car other than a golf cart.

It's not going to be the electric car that takes us off petroleum. It's going to be the autonomous car. That's mass transit that's custom and available and private enough for Americans. Once anyone does the numbers on Uber costs vs ownership in many markets it just doesn't make sense.

On business travel I rent cars about half as much as I used to.
True, but the autonomous car will be electric....it's going to be interesting to see by how much car ownership will decline as a result of this. There is still a massive aspirational pull for owning a car and having the freedom to move about as you want. But as the world continues to get more urbanised, urban car ownership will plummet with Uber and autonomous cars whizzing around - the new generation of car users might just see it for what it is - a tin box to move you from A to B as opposed to something our generation seem to get quite emotionally attached to.

We bought a Leaf and my wife is more attached to that car than any of our previous ICE cars.

PonoBill

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 18559
    • View Profile
    • Ponohouse is for sale. Great house but it's time for new adventures
Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #17 on: March 11, 2017, 09:34:25 AM »
My wife has a Tesla, and we have a Volt in Maui. I recently bought a new truck and it bothered me immensely to buy an IC vehicle. I consider it to be like investing the past instead of the present or future. But I need a big diesel to pull my race car trailer. My wife loves her Tesla, it's a great car. The Volt is nearly as good. Chevy did an amazing job with it. Restores my faith in American manufacturing.
Ponohouse is for sale: http://www.ponohouse.com
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

Weasels wake

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 2594
    • View Profile
Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #18 on: March 11, 2017, 09:44:01 AM »
Pono, I think you're right on it. I have a buddy who invests in energy and pipelines and I've been having friendly discussions warning him about what I see coming. He's super conservative and doesn't seem to be watching the horizon. He also obviously hasn't been in an electric car other than a golf cart.

It's not going to be the electric car that takes us off petroleum. It's going to be the autonomous car. That's mass transit that's custom and available and private enough for Americans. Once anyone does the numbers on Uber costs vs ownership in many markets it just doesn't make sense.

On business travel I rent cars about half as much as I used to.
True, but the autonomous car will be electric....it's going to be interesting to see by how much car ownership will decline as a result of this. There is still a massive aspirational pull for owning a car and having the freedom to move about as you want. But as the world continues to get more urbanised, urban car ownership will plummet with Uber and autonomous cars whizzing around - the new generation of car users might just see it for what it is - a tin box to move you from A to B as opposed to something our generation seem to get quite emotionally attached to.

We bought a Leaf and my wife is more attached to that car than any of our previous ICE cars.
Interesting angle of thought, urban vs. rural demand.  I can see the urban demand being very strong, but I can also see the rural demand being very weak.
"Honey, when are you going into the big city to get the supplies that we need?"
"Not really sure, all those driverless cars everywhere really scare me now days."
It takes a quiver to do that.

PonoBill

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 18559
    • View Profile
    • Ponohouse is for sale. Great house but it's time for new adventures
Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #19 on: March 11, 2017, 09:53:54 AM »
Hmmm. I think it's more likely that the rural folks will love being able to travel distances without paying attention, but time will tell.
Ponohouse is for sale: http://www.ponohouse.com
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

deepmud

  • Sunset Status
  • ****
  • Posts: 272
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #20 on: March 11, 2017, 12:42:35 PM »
My co-worker said to me yesterday -  "where is the self-driving RV?" - I'm like - wow! - yeah. It would be like going on a cruise - ping me when we get there, I'm in the back taking a shower (like the old myth of the guy who set his cruise-control on the long straight road in Texas and was found dead in the shower of the wrecked RV) or watching a show or ? Heck I'll just sleep on the road wake me when we get parked at IHOP - and when I walk in, have my stack o' pancakes waiting that just were cooked up by the auto-chef, steaming hot 30 seconds before I walk in the door.

PonoBill

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 18559
    • View Profile
    • Ponohouse is for sale. Great house but it's time for new adventures
Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #21 on: March 11, 2017, 12:50:21 PM »
Buckminister Fuller had the right idea about a million years ago. He thought that by now few of us would own a home. We'd have a vehicle that contained the expensive and personal elements of a home, that could connect to the cheap part anywhere. Bathroom and kitchen travels with you and connects to bedroom/den wherever.

He thought the difference between wealthy and middle-class owners would be that the wealthy would have drivers.
Ponohouse is for sale: http://www.ponohouse.com
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

Tom

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 2360
    • View Profile
Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #22 on: March 11, 2017, 01:08:36 PM »
Tesla's owners releasing their cars to Uber makes me think of Flight Car, the Airbnb of car rentals. I used them last year and was impressed. I tried to look them up and find out that they're now closed after  selling their technology to Mercedes Benz.
http://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/FlightCar-shuts-down-peer-to-peer-airport-car-8385373.php

Pretty interesting development. What's MB got up it's sleeve?

PonoBill

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 18559
    • View Profile
    • Ponohouse is for sale. Great house but it's time for new adventures
Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #23 on: March 11, 2017, 02:34:01 PM »
Actually, as things stand, they'll be releasing them to Tesla. All Teslas are internet connected and the autonomous ones move a lot of information. An autonomous Tesla owner will just make a choice when the car drops them off at the front door of wherever they're going--either go park and wait for me or go make me some money.
Ponohouse is for sale: http://www.ponohouse.com
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

Admin

  • Administrator
  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 3784
    • View Profile
    • StandUpZone
    • Email
Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #24 on: March 11, 2017, 03:49:46 PM »
Actually, as things stand, they'll be releasing them to Tesla. All Teslas are internet connected and the autonomous ones move a lot of information. An autonomous Tesla owner will just make a choice when the car drops them off at the front door of wherever they're going--either go park and wait for me or go make me some money.

Tesla is going to need to add a few sensors and comments before I'm ready.  "Wipe your feet, homie", "Who Sharted?", "Put out the stogie, Fidel", "Right Guard's in the glovie, dude".  Plus, we'll need a no Taco Bell pickups filter. 

PonoBill

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 18559
    • View Profile
    • Ponohouse is for sale. Great house but it's time for new adventures
Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #25 on: March 11, 2017, 06:25:55 PM »
You are not a candidate. Never. There are things tech can't fix.
Ponohouse is for sale: http://www.ponohouse.com
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

Admin

  • Administrator
  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 3784
    • View Profile
    • StandUpZone
    • Email
Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #26 on: March 12, 2017, 01:57:47 AM »
Sadly, that is a fact. 

No impact in regards to this post, however.  You nailed that.

LeftSide

  • Waikiki Status
  • *
  • Posts: 32
    • View Profile
Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #27 on: March 12, 2017, 10:44:39 AM »
Question: Why would it be only Teslas? Why can't Uber use someone else's vehicles?

I assume you're aware that Uber is currently developing their own self driving technology, and that their test vehicles are Volvos. Once the self driving kit is attached, there is nothing unique about Teslas save their lower range, longer recharge time (relative to a 5-10min gasoline fill up) and lower operating cost by way of being electric. Of course that's assuming that Teslas doesn't have the only good self driving kit.

It's possible that the lower operating cost and longer recharge time may turn out to be a sub optimal tradeoff or at least a wash versus an ICE vehicle: If the Tesla is out of commission to recharge for 30mins every three hours vice an ICE which is out of commission for 10mins every 6 hours, etc.

We have Mercedes, Volvo, Tesla, Uber, Google, and others all developing pretty solid autonomous technology right now. Whilst Tesla has thus far shown great willingness and vision, releasing their technology faster and iterating more quickly, that doesn't mean that they will "win the race" - nor, as Thiel says, is it always so important to be first to market. It's better to be last than first ;)

I would also note that Volvo is one of the few "large" brands with a market cap smaller than Uber's. Coincidence that Uber is using those?

As an aside, it will be nice when all subways are decommissioned because autonomous taxis are faster and cheaper.

« Last Edit: March 12, 2017, 10:53:06 AM by LeftSide »

PonoBill

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 18559
    • View Profile
    • Ponohouse is for sale. Great house but it's time for new adventures
Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #28 on: March 12, 2017, 03:58:26 PM »
It's not necessarily Tesla, it's just that they are a bit ahead right now and have a network in place. Uber will need a substantial amount of development work to duplicate the Tesla network, and then there's the whole stolen tech thing. I use Tesla as an example because people know they are well along--but they could be beaten.

I think they have some huge advantages, and the scope of their vision is much larger than just providing autonomous vehicles. There's a big difference in a partner installing the required hardware and building the hardware in, even in cars that aren't sold as being autonomous. Everything is up in the air, and the winner will navigate some huge hurdles. But I think it's coming fast, and it changes a lot of things.
Ponohouse is for sale: http://www.ponohouse.com
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

Bean

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 2522
    • View Profile
Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #29 on: March 13, 2017, 06:32:36 AM »
As an aside, it will be nice when all subways are decommissioned because autonomous taxis are faster and cheaper.
Good one... ;D

 


* Recent Posts

* Recent Topics