Author Topic: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight  (Read 1594 times)

PonoBill

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I had kind of a Holy Shit moment this morning while I was reading a few somewhat related articles about Tesla. I posted it in the self-driving car thread, but I think it deserves separate attention.

The larger question is not the technology, which is coming fast, but what it means for transportation in general. With Uber's current funding round valuation ($62 billion) They could obviously afford to buy the full output of Tesla for the foreseeable future. If they don't, or are not allowed to, then they probably disappear.

Tesla executes the Tesla Networks concept, Tesla autonomous car owners release their cars to the network when they don't need them, earning a return on ownership of their cars. The USA then has a fleet of autonomous taxis larger than the current fleet (250,000), probably by a factor of ten. The cost for getting a ride wherever you want to go, without any appreciable wait, drops to some fraction of what it is today. Tesla has a new continuous revenue stream that dwarfs anything Uber ever sees with no added cost other than developing and maintaining software and TCO of a Tesla drops well below anything that burns gas.

I don't think I'm speculating here. I think I'm articulating an obvious game plan. The only open question is whether or not Musk thinks there is any advantage in partnering with Uber.

I think not.

In other news, there's a twitter thing going on about Southern Australia's blackout situation. Musk offered to install 100 megawatts of utility-level powerwall in Australia to curb the problem in 100 days. When challenged on the timeframe Musk said "If we don't do it in 100 days then it's free".   http://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-power-tesla-idUSKBN16H0RL

Not only would this raise the understanding of the value of local storage hugely (100 MW would probably solve most of the problem, even though it's less than the output of a typical gas turbine generation plant, it would substantially change the nature of the current problem. Might not eliminate it, but local and distributed storage is a lot more important and useful than central generation. This could be an important development, especially if it's coupled eventually with a lot more solar. Australia's solar potential is huge.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 10:44:31 AM by PonoBill »
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Bean

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Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #1 on: March 10, 2017, 11:09:29 AM »
...Tesla autonomous car owners release their cars to the network when they don't need them, earning a return on ownership of their cars.
My first inclination would be to buy several through a self directed 401(k). ;D

PonoBill

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Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #2 on: March 10, 2017, 11:11:12 AM »
You and everyone else.
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deepmud

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Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #3 on: March 10, 2017, 11:12:57 AM »
I spend the first 45 minutes of "work" :D yesterday talking about DUI and the selfdriving car - it started with the limited selfdriving we see now - and the Teslas that have wrecked when the driver didn't step in.

So we argued that it would be like a DUI on a horse - the hose knows the way home but you get a DUI - the same for your Tesla.

But what if it's an Uber? and it drove itself - well then we figured - you're good.

Which then brings me to what you were saying - we looked at the parking lot - full of cars doing nothing.............I didn't even think of them as a fleet of Uber/Tesla taxis - but as the power grid.

As a fleet that can be either.....holy cow...........

tautologies

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Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #4 on: March 10, 2017, 11:42:24 AM »
I had kind of a Holy Shit moment this morning while I was reading a few somewhat related articles about Tesla. I posted it in the self-driving car thread, but I think it deserves separate attention.

The larger question is not the technology, which is coming fast, but what it means for transportation in general. With Uber's current funding round valuation ($62 billion) They could obviously afford to buy the full output of Tesla for the foreseeable future. If they don't, or are not allowed to, then they probably disappear.

Tesla executes the Tesla Networks concept, Tesla autonomous car owners release their cars to the network when they don't need them, earning a return on ownership of their cars. The USA then has a fleet of autonomous taxis larger than the current fleet (250,000), probably by a factor of ten. The cost for getting a ride wherever you want to go, without any appreciable wait, drops to some fraction of what it is today. Tesla has a new continuous revenue stream that dwarfs anything Uber ever sees with no added cost other than developing and maintaining software and TCO of a Tesla drops well below anything that burns gas.

I don't think I'm speculating here. I think I'm articulating an obvious game plan. The only open question is whether or not Musk thinks there is any advantage in partnering with Uber.

I think not.

In other news, there's a twitter thing going on about Southern Australia's blackout situation. Musk offered to install 100 megawatts of utility-level powerwall in Australia to curb the problem in 100 days. When challenged on the timeframe Musk said "If we don't do it in 100 days then it's free".   http://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-power-tesla-idUSKBN16H0RL

Not only would this raise the understanding of the value of local storage hugely (100 MW would probably solve most of the problem, even though it's less than the output of a typical gas turbine generation plant, it would substantially change the nature of the current problem. Might not eliminate it, but local and distributed storage is a lot more important and useful than central generation. This could be an important development, especially if it's coupled eventually with a lot more solar. Australia's solar potential is huge.

I agree I think you are articulating an obvious game plan..and this shouldn't come as a huge surprise to anyone. What I find interesting is how Tesla then controls the whole vertical from energy harvesting to end consumer. It means the competition can't out-manoeuvre on anything but price or service, which for us will be epic. The only reason to own a car will be if you need a storage container while you are doing other things. For instance, if you bring two boards to the beach and need one safely stored while out paddling. If you just store stuff in the trunk you can still let your car make you some cash, but have the trunk as inaccessible. 




Weasels wake

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Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #6 on: March 10, 2017, 11:54:12 AM »
PB: "The larger question is not the technology, which is coming fast, but what it means for transportation in general. With Uber's current funding round valuation ($62 billion) They could obviously afford to buy the full output of Tesla for the foreseeable future. If they don't, or are not allowed to, then they probably disappear."

If they even get that far~

Can Uber be saved from itself?
‘They have dug themselves a very deep hole’
by Andrew J. Hawkins@andyjayhawk Mar 6, 2017, 9:30am EST

The week began with a terribly embarrassing video of Uber CEO Travis Kalanick being a jerk to one of his drivers, and ended with a bombshell report about a secret and legally questionable program used by Uber to evade government scrutiny globally called “Greyball.” For any other company, this confluence of bad press would have seemed catastrophic. For Uber, it was just another week in February.
Uber has been engulfed in a new scandal almost every week for the past month, and every single day for the past two weeks, from allegations of a toxic, misogynistic workplace to the revelation that its self-driving cars were malfunctioning and possibly running on stolen technology.
It’s shady business — even for a business with a reputation for shadiness.

Let’s be clear: Uber’s problems didn’t just materialize out of the blue this past January. Uber has been burning through capital, pissing off drivers, alienating riders, and generally wreaking havoc since its inception over six years ago.

For the rest~
http://www.theverge.com/2017/3/6/14791080/uber-sexism-scandal-strike-waymo-lawsuit-travis-kalanick
It takes a quiver to do that.

PonoBill

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Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #7 on: March 10, 2017, 11:56:57 AM »
Cars as storage is also kind of obvious. 100KW for each car times the whole parking lot.  500 cars in a lot = 5MWH of storage That's enough to run most factories. Think about how that could play out for shopping malls and local charging.  Or your own two cars in your garage with a smart system that knows how far you need to drive tomorrow = 200KWH of storage and schedulable charging. Solar Roof, grid connected for max efficiency or not for max versatility. A little 13.5 KWH powerwall for those times when there's no car in the garage.

There's a little pilot program under way on Maui, but I think it's a bit underreaching. The big requirement is a DC connection to/from the battery.
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PonoBill

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Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #8 on: March 10, 2017, 12:04:07 PM »
I read anything about Uber with a critical eye, remembering who they had to bowl over and piss off just to get where they are. Kalanick has to be on tough MFer. That's not a tech company, it's a "stomp on all the taxi companies and city monopolies on medallions and the graft that makes them run" company.  Millions of customers who love them, 250,000 cabbies and thousands of politicians that don't.  That said, they don't have a model that works unless they either get autonomous cars or pull in their horns and strip the model down to take the money while it lasts, and then disappear.
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Bean

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Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #9 on: March 10, 2017, 12:11:58 PM »

peterp

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Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #10 on: March 10, 2017, 12:51:12 PM »
I have been following this subject with some interest for some time now. I think transportation and energy generation and distribution will change completely in a very short time. Distributed solar energy generation, vehicle to grid and distributed energy storage combined with autonomous EV's will change two of the most powerful industries in the world - fossil fuel and car manufacturers.

This will change the political landscape, as well as the strongest lobbies, which will be become redundant. It will literally be power to the people  and I predict this will happen before 2030 - In Oslo, Norway more than 50% of their new vehicles sold in January this year were EV's. Thats with some incentive schemes, in 3 years time EV TCO will be so low that you won't need subsidies and then the snowball effect will gather momentum.

It's happening and its happening very fast, not even Trump can stop it unless he starts taxing the crap out of EV's and green energy - and even that will fail when the US see China speeding off in the distance on solarpowered EV's

Tom

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Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #11 on: March 10, 2017, 01:56:42 PM »
Interesting coincidence. My wife and I are currently dealing with the issues of her aging mother and the driving transportation challenges that need to be addressed. Her mother, of course, sees no problem in driving and has lots of transport requirements. We feel that there is a problem now that only is only going to get worse and we need to plan for it. While dealing with that, I get an advert from Tesla which explains their autonomous driving system. If we went all in on their top system, all problems could be solved. She really doesn't need a new car, and even if she did, she wouldn't be spending that kind of money on a replacement. But it sure is something to think about.

PonoBill

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Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #12 on: March 10, 2017, 04:02:18 PM »
The Model 3 will be about 40K and TCO if you put it into the network should be about 5K per year by my calculations (assuming the car earns $5 per hour in the network. All this assumes that Mom sticks around until 2020 and later.

But Uber right now is a cheap deal. Sell moms car and use the money for Uber. Paying for gas, insurance, and maintenance on a car that she uses with typical utilization is a losing deal. People see a 30 buck uber cost and think they're getting ripped. That's because they have no understanding of what their car costs them.

Annual expense for a typical car including depreciation is about 10-15K per year--about $40 per day. I bet Uber pencils out. By my calculations, a Model 3 in the network with morning and evening personal use and overnight charging will cost $10-15 per day. Every day you don't use it for personal travel and thereby restrict the fleet use, it should return about $20-30 per day. 

The fly in the ointment is accelerated depreciation for EVs. The systems are getting better so quickly that last year's model is unattractive. Doesn't apply to Tesla since the range of most Teslas is already substantial. But when a Leaf goes from 40 to 70 milles of range, the 40 mile cars eat shit.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 04:06:30 PM by PonoBill »
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paddlejones

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Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #13 on: March 10, 2017, 06:38:25 PM »
Left turn but I watched an egomaniac speak about Piezoelectric fabric as a power source this week. How they are going to put it in tire fabric and generate crazy amounts of electricity and off load what the cars do not use on to the grid. Claims it is coming quick. he was quite the nut. But interesting

PonoBill

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Re: Holy Shit Moment--how transportation and energy change overnight
« Reply #14 on: March 10, 2017, 06:44:08 PM »
Nut is right. Power in minus efficiency loss = power out. What are you going to be doing in your piezoelectric pants that will generate significant power? 
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