Warren Buffett is bad-ass. He came to speak to my business school in 1997. When asked (then) if he was just "A lucky coin flipper"
he responded:"I was lucky to be born into a time when my skills were incredibly valuable. I am good at what I do but if I had been born 50 years earlier or later I might have been forced to live on porridge."
There was no ambiguity, defensiveness or arrogance in his statement. Just a matter of fact. 1 year later having joined a high-tech firm (before it was cool) I bought a bunch of Berkshire as a hedge against technology. I remember an astute friend saying "Berkshire Hathaway is overvalued."
While that purchase today may appear to have been a slam dunk there were enough counter cyclical moves, with BRK.B, to make anyone wonder if it was the right thing to do (see the returns vs market in 1999, 2000 . . ).
All this said the best thing I ever did was to read A Random Walk Down Wall Street
in 1994 and start buying index funds. Buffett's letter reads like an excerpt from this 45 year old book, The single best investment book ever
that articulated 1) Why Vanguard has been so successful and 2) Spawned the ETF market among other things.
Having graduated from Harvard Business School, worked through 2 tech bubbles, started a hedge fund and with loads of friends in Private Equity and at Hedge funds my advice is this:
To outstrip market returns you have to start something new and make it your full time 50 hrs+++ per week job (like PonoBill) or work for Goldman Sachs. Beating the market is not impossible but your chances are ~ 3%.
For everyone else Burton Malkiel, John Bogle (founder of Vanguard), Warren Buffett and Beasho advise to Buy: VTI
and go surfing https://www.amazon.com/Random-Walk-down-Wall-Street/dp/0393352242/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_product_top?ie=UTF8