Author Topic: Self-Driving Cars  (Read 17601 times)

PonoBill

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #45 on: February 25, 2017, 09:15:43 PM »
So what percentage of drivers do you think know how to respond to a simple spin? one percent?  i think thats wildly optimistic.
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Eagle

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #46 on: February 25, 2017, 10:18:08 PM »
ABS ESC TC all are useful.  Even PDK.  Removed a lot of driver skill out of the equation.  Still remember how many 911s went backwards off the track back in the day.  So have come a long way.  After a few more hundred million miles the system might figure out that a white semi is not an overhead pass.

Elon saying you can be asleep - and do so safely - is so very silly.  But peeeps actually believe this bs crap.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2017, 10:23:50 PM by Eagle »
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Eagle

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #47 on: February 26, 2017, 10:46:26 AM »
Beta test means beta test.

"In August, Tesla revised the language on its China website to remove the term "self-driving" after a driver who had crashed while using Autopilot claimed that the company had exaggerated the system's capabilities."

"Perfect safety is an impossible goal," Musk said during a press conference on the Autopilot upgrade. "We are increasing the probability of safety."

"It is not designed to cover all possible crash situations in a safe manner," said Mobileye Chairman Amnon Shashua on Wednesday, Sept. 14."

Many in my area have Teslas.  They are very common.  But the drivers behind the wheel should probs take a few advanced DE events to understand the risks involved at speed.  Powerful cars -> are very dangerous for inept drivers.  But still Tesla needs a lot more beta testers.  A lot more.  So get one.  For the price and quality - my little old school hands-on the wheel short shift mid-engine drop top Porsche S is way better.  And way more fun.  Haha!

http://www.autonews.com/article/20160919/OEM/309199962/lawsuit-adds-to-scrutiny-of-teslas-autopilot?CSAuthResp=1%3A1173638648625445%3A423310%3A8273%3A24%3Aapproved%3A9B805E36CFCFD6E5DF8702E0E18B3723

https://youtu.be/TSN3gDUNpXQ

https://youtu.be/fc0yYJ8-Dyo
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surfafrica

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #48 on: February 26, 2017, 11:23:43 AM »
Self driving tech isn't aimed at people wanting to rip around in Porches or just have fun going out for a drive.  Ya, the ai is gaining a lot of experience from rich folks who can afford powerful Teslas at the moment, but soon, it's going to start being implemented into society at a greater rate benefiting soccer Moms driving mini-vans, seniors getting to their bridge games (or their local SUP beach!  ;) ), and stressed out white collar workers as they multi-task on their commute to work.  The ai will only get better as more general drivers start using it.  So ya, you can say it's in beta, but it already has a lot of miles logged and cars with self-driving tech have less accidents & deaths than those without it per mile driven.  That will only get better.

As this tech starts getting implemented, every accident involving self-driving tech will be a major news item.  But keep in mind, in 2015, 4 people died per hour in the US due to car accidents (35,092 total).  That number goes up to 1.2 million deaths world wide per year.

All of us are going to think "ya, but not for me...I'm a better driver than self-driving cars will be".  That's simply not true for the vast majority....but is definitely human nature to think it. Most people think they are above average.

The "saftey debate" isn't really much of a debate and the numbers will show it. The other effects on society are going to be really interesting as it will be transformative (with some inevitable humps to get over). 

My parents are getting to the age where driving is going to start becoming an issue.  This tech will likely end up increasing the amount of time they end up spending with their grandkids.  Gold.

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Eagle

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #49 on: February 26, 2017, 11:38:29 AM »
As noted when I am 90 -> I will probs buy into that.  Thank goodness we are way past the soccer mom days.  We had a crap Sienna for that.  Haha!

Tesla has removed the term "self-driving".  That is key to note.  The Tesla auto does not really self-drive safely.  That is the point.  When my kids have kids - we will pulling up in the Porsche.  While they happily drive along never exceeding the posted speed limit in complete blissful serenity and safety.

Tesla is also doing its best to skew the number argument as well.  Tesla btw uses the term "beta test".

"Tesla uses the term "beta test" for drivers currently deploying the latest version of the Autopilot system, which was introduced in October 2015. During the Sept. 11 press conference, Musk said he uses the term to ensure drivers will be especially cautious when activating the technology."
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 11:47:39 AM by Eagle »
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surfafrica

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #50 on: February 26, 2017, 11:52:32 AM »
I totally agree.  Tesla calling it Autopilot (and using the term self-driving) was a bad call.  Irresponsible.  It was not and is not yet Level 4.  I'm just super impressed with how close we are to Level 4 now.  It's right around the corner and will be a game changer.

I truly hope you'll be speeding up to your grandkids house in a Porsche. That's cool. Very cool. I hope I'll be able to do that too. I also hope you don't become one of those drivers at 85 who think they can drive like they could at 60 and put people like your kids' kids who are diving along never exceeding the posted speed limit in complete blissful serenity and safety at risk.  ...and ain't it nice to know that if life throws you a curve ball where the Porsche isn't an option, you'll still be able to visit the grandkids in your own car (maybe even in a driver-assisted or self-driving Porsche).
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 12:05:15 PM by surfafrica »
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Eagle

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #51 on: February 26, 2017, 03:33:56 PM »
Nah never!  ;)
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Eagle

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #52 on: February 26, 2017, 04:51:55 PM »
Here is my son at a DE event.  We have our kids learn how to drive properly and safely very early on.  Even one day soon he may work for Tesla as an engineer.  So you never know.  He may even help sort the crap self driving algorithms for them.  We talk about this - as we know people who work in design there right now.  One of his close friends Dad has one.  And one friend of his has worked for Tesla already - and another just starting.  Just that self driving is not self driving.  Not yet anyways.  And beta is beta.  People need to be aware of that.  Keep your hands ready to take over at all times -> and do not doze off or read emails!  ;)
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 04:54:03 PM by Eagle »
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Eagle

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #53 on: February 26, 2017, 10:29:51 PM »
Here are a couple good tutorial vids showing and describing actual daily use.  Basically they do not recommend using autopilot unless conditions are optimal ie. highway stop and go etc.  This majorly skews the mileage claims.  Both noted when they would have been in accidents if they did not take control.  Autopilot blows through red lights and will hit road debris and slam over potholes etc.  It ignored cars that would cut in front as well.  Elon actually says you should be "especially cautious when activating this technology".  Beta is beta ie. no emails.   ;)

https://youtu.be/LKRG7aZ4sPo

https://youtu.be/jEKPsd1dirA
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surfafrica

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #54 on: February 27, 2017, 10:00:06 AM »
Oh ya, I totally agree. Tesla is not at Level 4 yet, and drivers should stay alert ready to take control. I think they've been too aggressive pushing it.  The current early adopters are truly the guinea pigs of this tech--and some aren't ready or responsible enough to properly QA it. I can't believe Tesla has gotten away with their current approach.

What I find fascinating is how many others are working on it (besides Tesla and Google) and how far it's all coming along. That first video I posted is by GM. Ford, VW, Mercedes, BMW, Volvo, Honda, Toyota, Nissan--all the major car manufacturers--are working on it. Even VW's Porsche is working on it despite their CEO's reluctance. There are also a good handful of smaller specialized groups (like in the second vid in the original post) pushing the tech forward. Miles are getting logged at an increasing pace and even though the stakeholders are keeping things close (though based on Uber/Waymo, not successfully at times) there is a collective progress going on.

So if we assume the tech will get to Level 4 (I'm confident it will, others may disagree) or even Level 5, it's going to be interesting to see how fast it does or doesn't get adopted.  If adoption comes quickly, how will it effect jobs, social behavior, the car industry, the economy, etc?  If EVs end up taking off (I think eventually its inevitable, others may disagree) the previous question becomes even more interesting.

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Eagle

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #55 on: February 27, 2017, 12:09:06 PM »
It def is a work in progress.  Tesla is very happy it has willing and able guinea pig early adopters to help work out the bugs for them.  For cars my risk tolerance is low.  Just too risky to be sitting in a 4000 lb car knowing that the system is not approved by the manufacturer to work all the time safely on its own.  If there always needs to be someone making sure it does not crash -> then better to just take control yourself all the time.  Having a false sense of security then reacting to avoid an accident in a split second seems potentially extremely dangerous and very counter-productive.  It goes against smart driving skills.

The "follow" algorithm is something we would never do at speed on the highway - but seems a big part of the system.  If we had to click on and off that system when we drove down to Seattle this past Christmas - that would have been a joke and major frustration all the way.  We despise following big trucks or cars blocking our view of the road ahead.  They spit up crap and rocks and road slime etc.  Instead we buzzed along merrily and safely and quickly away from them.  Full attention on the road and our surroundings at all times.  Normal safe driving away from wolf packs and crazy inept road rage drivers.

If the software leads to more accidents or fatalities then the tech implementation should slow dramatically.  Consumer confidence will likely wane.  Even in perfect highway conditions the system cannot always cope properly.  So def it is hands in the wheel at all times to be safe.  This takes away the appeal for many.  So will be very interesting to see how this tech progresses.  But for us -> we are fine just the way we are.  Old school safe and fun.  But change means new $$$ and potential new more expensive cars.  Profits based on so-called safety.  Hmmm?

As noted early on though - would be ok with "Beam me up Scotty" as well.  Haha!  ;D
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surfafrica

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #56 on: February 27, 2017, 01:15:14 PM »
I agree with you on the Tesla stuff.  I also agree that consumer confidence will play a huge factor in adoption. Accidents will continue to receive press coverage that will keep the public on their toes (unfortunately some will continue to drive down the freeway watching Harry Potter before it's safe to do so). It's clear that a lot of people are skeptical on how safe this is or will become.  Many believe the roads will become safer; others don't.  It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out.

I'm bullish on where it's going.  I think ultimately the roads will get safer and the opportunity for mobility will improve for many. I don't think safe vs fun have to be opposing--those who love driving will still be able to drive (with many of those also enjoying the option of autopilot when they want it).

I do wonder about the "profits based on so-called safety".  For some companies, I think they see big opportunity profit-wise (Tesla, Uber, Apple, etc).  But I think a lot of the big car manufactures would rather have it so that tech never came into play (as they are with EVs). I think they are coming to terms that they're going to have to participate or risk being left behind (a la Blockbuster). Progess with EVs has been held back to keep profits up.  I wonder (and I don't know the answer) if progress on self-driving cars--whether that be development or adoption or law making--might be held back due to profit pressure of larger influential corps? 





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supthecreek

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #57 on: February 27, 2017, 03:43:34 PM »
All the talk about increased safety is good, and everyone wants safer roadways, but as in everything, there are unintended consequences that arise from completely safe highways.

On the "life for life" exchange
Auto deaths per day = 88
People waiting organ transplant deaths per day = 13
Traffic deaths supply 20% of the transplant organs
121,678 people are awaiting transplants now.
so there IS a life for life reality to this

Then there's the financial impact. Hint.... HUGE

All that mechanize death and mayhem is big business. Really big business.
If you balanced the "risk vs loss", like auto manufacturers do, it becomes interesting.

Lets take Auto Body Industry alone
Employees = 739,850
Yearly pay = $28 Billion per year

What percentage of the entire Insurance industry deals with Auto policy and injury claims?
Insurance industry employees = 2.5 Million people
Yearly pay could total far above $9 Trillion
How much of that would be eliminated?

Emergency response staff, from ambulance to hospital

Rehab staff and facilities

Personal injury lawyers, staff and court costs
Advertising costs associated with this industry

165,000 driving schools
322,800 employees
total yearly revenue = $10 Billion

Police traffic details

Orderly traffic behavior would save the highways
Lost road repair work

Taxi Drivers
School bus drivers
Crossing guards

Mortuary lost revenue

I did some simple, quick research to come up with the above numbers
And thats just playing with this.... dig into the total unintended consequences and it could actually bring the world to it's knees.
How many millions would starve to death after total financial collapse?

or.... we keep enjoying the responsibility (and joy) of driving ourselves and apparently... save the entire world  ;D

sample of research below:

surfafrica

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #58 on: February 27, 2017, 07:08:31 PM »
Creek, as the kids would say "I know, right".

If this tech progresses like it's hinting, it will be a major disrupter and have a huge ripple effect across a lot of industries (as you detailed).  I don't think we're necessarily prepared for what might be coming.  History has shown time and time again that technological progress won't be stopped to preserve the old ways of doing things (or to save jobs). Humans and society will adapt as we have with other disruptive steps we've taken, but it's sure going to be interesting to see how we do it with this one.

Combine all that with what might happen if AI begins to chip away at white collar work, robotics continues to chip away at blue collar work, and the shift to renewable energy changes that whole landscape, and we're looking at a pretty crazy ride over the next few decades.
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stoneaxe

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #59 on: February 28, 2017, 04:50:00 AM »
In the other thread discussing AI it was said that people will just move to other jobs as they get replaced. What other jobs...no other tech has ever had the potential to be this disruptive. It's across all industies. Are we are moving to guaranteed income and a weird dystopian future?
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