Author Topic: Self-Driving Cars  (Read 17616 times)

SupPadre

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #60 on: March 02, 2017, 01:35:15 PM »
http://www.theverge.com/2017/1/19/14326258/teslas-crash-rate-dropped-40-percent-after-autopilot-was-installed-feds-say

According to this article, the crash rate of Tesla's dropped 40% after the introduction of Autopilot. If you drive a Tesla with Autopilot, you will understand why they are so much safer. I believe the biggest improvement in safety for Autopilot comes from Tesla's Traffic Aware Cruise Control. You can use the TACC with or without autopilot, and it will maintain a comfortable distance between you and the car in front of you. If you have engaged TACC, you can then engage autopilot, which will keep the car in well marked lanes and allow you to change lanes by using the turn signal.
Autopilot is only a tool to keep the car in a lane. If the car in front of you slams on their brakes, TACC will brake also. If the car in the lane beside you suddenly veers into your lane, you to take evasive maneuvers, the TACC will only react to a car stopping in front of you, and it certainly can't read cross traffic if you are using it on roads other than expressways.

 I wonder if the people who are so sure they won't like autopilot didn't use cruise control when it first became available.



Eagle

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #61 on: March 02, 2017, 02:00:30 PM »
The government concluded that while advanced driver assist systems (ADAS) like Autopilot may help in reducing auto accidents, they should not supplement or replace a driver’s attention to the road. “While ADAS technologies are continually improving in performance in larger percentages of crash types, a driver should never wait for automatic braking to occur when a collision threat is perceived,” the NHTSA said.

This makes perfect sense and is reflected clearly in the vids posted earlier as well.  Those drivers were especially careful to take over immediate control when needed.  They did in fact have to take control many times to avoid accidents and potential fatalities.  So would expect the millions of tested miles to be much better than the average given the Tesla drivers are notified to be very careful whenever deploying this tech.  Tesla seemed to note they should not be held responsible for accidents.
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PonoBill

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #62 on: March 02, 2017, 02:52:36 PM »
In the other thread discussing AI it was said that people will just move to other jobs as they get replaced. What other jobs...no other tech has ever had the potential to be this disruptive. It's across all industies. Are we are moving to guaranteed income and a weird dystopian future?

Possibly, but probably not. A utopian view is equally likely and something in the middle of the probability distribution is most likely.  I have a hard time viewing pick and place factory jobs as being important to the maturation of humankind as a species. The general structure of society and the physical infrastructure needs substantial upgrading.  I think it's no more important to hang on to the current iteration of work than it is to hang onto crashing cars and crushed bodies as a economic stimulant.  Remember as you contemplate this that the current reality is incredibly young. Saying the disruption from future tech is somehow greater than anything previously experienced is just silly. In 1950 we had the capability to erase any country from the earth. A hundred years before that wars were fought with muskets and wind powered ships.

I think it's pretty surprising how effective huge manufacturers like GMC have been in building useful EVs, even though they don't market them hard. The Chevy Volt is worthy competition to the Tesla Model 3, and so is the Bolt. I've dug deep into the technology of the volt, and it's pretty magnificent.  I considered using the full Volt powertrain and battery for my Electric TR3 project, but Chevy holds all the tech info I'd need for modifying the controllers very close to their chest, so I'll just be using a stripped down Volt battery. I'd say Chevy's tech is as good as Tesla's and in some ways, much better.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2017, 03:00:56 PM by PonoBill »
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Eagle

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #63 on: March 02, 2017, 03:54:14 PM »
That Bolt here is almost sold out for 2017.  Called the dealer a couple of days ago and only one can still be had to any specs you want.  Maybe down the road something like that will appeal.  Decent tech.  All the other brands will have electrics soon for EPA ratings etc.

Had a TR as my very first drop top when about 20.  Fun car in its day but very gutless.  A nice powerful electric motor swap would have been nice back then.  But not Lucas electric crap though.  ;)
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surfafrica

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #64 on: March 02, 2017, 04:14:24 PM »
Saying the disruption from future tech is somehow greater than anything previously experienced is just silly. In 1950 we had the capability to erase any country from the earth. A hundred years before that wars were fought with muskets and wind powered ships.

^ good point.

For my cohort (born in the early 70s), the major disrupter that we've lived through is the birth of the internet. We entered University without it (for all intensive purposes) and left with it in play.  For me and a large portion of my friends, our jobs exist because of the internet. Was there a point as the internet was taking root that people worried about a loss of jobs?  The postal service?  Retail?  I don't remember that, but we were all too busy salivating on how to take advantage of this new thing.

So as we look at all the jobs that are going to fall by the wayside when AI, self-driving cars and renewable energy start taking off, it'll be cool to see what jobs that we haven't thought of yet open up.

That Bolt here is almost sold out for 2017.  Called the dealer a couple of days ago and only one can still be had to any specs you want. Maybe down the road something like that will appeal.  Decent tech.  All the other brands will have electrics soon for EPA ratings etc.

A friend of mine (fellow SUPer) has a Bolt coming in a month or two (ordered was placed back in November).  I'm excited to try it.  Another one of my surf buddies drives a Volt. It is slick.  I have a Leaf, and even though it's a good gen behind this new breed of EVs and is pretty much a jelly bean on wheels, I love it.  I'll never go back to internal combustion. I know they aren't for everyone, but EVs fit my lifestyle pretty well (including being lazy about stopping for gas and getting cars serviced, and being an earth-loving hippie at heart).  I'm in line for the Model 3 so I should get my butt in that seat come 2018 (...but more likely 2019).
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PonoBill

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #65 on: March 02, 2017, 04:57:45 PM »
I'm building mine with everything badged  to look like it's Lucas, but it's actually modern electronics. The motor will deliver about 110HP and 140ft/lbs of torque. I'd like to make it a single speed so I can move the motor to the middle of the car, but it's much easier to build it with a transmission.

I can get about 130HP at the rear wheels with a TR3/4 motor, reliable for racing, brutal for street. Steel crank, Carillo or Pauter rods, big valves, flowed and ported, bored to 87mm, webers, lumpy cam, light flywheel, Tilton clutch, Quaife dog box transmission. A lot of work for not a lot of horsepower, but the racing is fun.

The last company (except for Ke Nalu) that I started was a direct marketing agency specializing in technology clients. When we started the company the internet was still mostly browserless. We experienced the disruption of the internet and web firsthand. We had to transition from direct mail to web- and email-based marketing. Our clients initially believed none of their customers were on the web, and later believed that paper mail was pointless because everyone was on the web.

Times change.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2017, 05:06:51 PM by PonoBill »
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stoneaxe

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #66 on: March 02, 2017, 05:17:50 PM »
I'm not talking about disruption in general...and I think comparing weapons development to jobs only makes my point. It was and is massively different. That same shift and level productivity (if you can call efficiency in destruction productivity) is now coming to the corner store, factory, restaurant, construction company, and everything else near you. How is that not going to displace millions and millions of workers? I don't know how many new types of jobs can be created in the same time period. And it will go even further in the future as the tech gets better and better. I just don't see man being competitive with AI and robotics 20- 30 years from now....in almost anything.
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PonoBill

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #67 on: March 02, 2017, 07:10:02 PM »
I think one of the most likely scenarios is humanity enhanced. We actually already know how to edit genes to make people smarter. We'll also soon be able to connect human and artificial memory and processing.  You might find that distressing and disgusting, but if it's feasible, people will do it. It's going to be feasible. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to find China already doing some of it.

Picture China's next generation being ten percent smarter.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2017, 07:11:49 PM by PonoBill »
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stoneaxe

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #68 on: March 02, 2017, 08:16:22 PM »
It's funny you say that. I was just talking to Sue about that. I don't find it distressing or disgusting at all...I'd love to always remember where the fuck I left my keys.... :). Beyond the obvious near term connections that are already happening and will eventually become more the norm for existence here amongst the machines we'll absolutely need genetic manipulation and augmentation for existence in space and other planets. I don't doubt the exciting possibilities for humankind in the future but I think we are going to see technological and cultural shifts the likes of which the world has never seen in the next 50 years.

Times change for sure but it's the pace of change and the inability of our leaders to plan and adapt that I'm worried about.....that and mans capacity for greed and corruption.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2017, 08:21:22 PM by stoneaxe »
Bob

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PonoBill

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #69 on: March 10, 2017, 10:31:14 AM »
The larger question is not the technology, which is coming fast, but what it means for transportation in general. With Uber's current funding round valuation ($62 billion) They could obviously afford to buy the full output of Tesla for the foreseeable future. If they don't, or are not allowed to, then they probably disappear.

Tesla executes the Tesla Networks concept, Tesla autonomous car owners release their cars to the network when they don't need them, earning a return on ownership of their cars. The USA then has a fleet of autonomous taxis larger than the current fleet (250,000), probably by a factor of ten. The cost for getting a ride wherever you want to go, without any appreciable wait, drops to some fraction of what it is today. Tesla has a new continuous revenue stream that dwarfs anything Uber ever sees with no added cost other than developing and maintaining software and TCO of a Tesla drops well below anything that burns gas.

I don't think I'm speculating here. I think I'm articulating an obvious game plan. The only open question is whether or not Musk thinks there is any advantage in partnering with Uber.

I think not.
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deepmud

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #70 on: March 10, 2017, 11:48:17 AM »
It's funny you say that. I was just talking to Sue about that. I don't find it distressing or disgusting at all...I'd love to always remember where the fuck I left my keys.... :).

I've always said "I wish I was doing drugs, so I could STOP IT!!!" - if I could keep things in my brain I'd be dangerous. Sign me up for brain augmentation asap.

SlatchJim

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #71 on: March 10, 2017, 01:56:12 PM »
The larger question is
Where can I get self driving Golf Clubs?

pdxmike

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #72 on: March 10, 2017, 02:33:14 PM »
The larger question is
Where can I get self driving Golf Clubs?
I read they're coming next, now that they've finished the self-driving screws.


But who needs them, anyway, since most golf club sets come with their own drivers.

Bean

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #73 on: March 13, 2017, 09:13:33 AM »
I often feel like a driverless golfer...

PonoBill

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Re: Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #74 on: March 17, 2017, 10:55:36 AM »
Interesting article in Forbes on Tesla: https://www.forbes.com/sites/aalsin/2017/03/14/why-general-motors-has-already-lost-to-tesla

The forbes site is very irritating, with crappy music popping up every so often from autorun videos. There's an edited excerpt of the article here: https://evannex.com/blogs/news/heres-why-gm-will-lose-to-tesla

The gist of the article is that GM is acting as a disrupted vertical being overtaken by a typically more horizontal upstart. GMC is wasting stockholder money doing buybacks to bump it's stock to please activist hedge fund stockholders while Tesla is building the Gigafactory. GMC could have built three gigafactories for the cost of their 18 billion buyback.
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