Author Topic: The road to 5G  (Read 1187 times)

Admin

  • Administrator
  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 3784
    • View Profile
    • StandUpZone
    • Email
The road to 5G
« on: February 22, 2017, 04:45:54 AM »
Pretty cool to see Gigabit phones and mobile networks coming online.  https://www.macrumors.com/2017/02/21/qualcomm-lte-gigabit-lte-modems/

Mobile networks that have the capacity exceed the static broadband networks ramping up from now.  While that is an exciting prospect for immediate usability, 5G is supposed to have a decided standard this year with real implementation by 2020.  It always takes a while for these things to ramp up to near the promised numbers, but even so, this is a monumental shift.

It is fun to theorize what types of products and processes will arise from that level of moving data at near real time speeds.  Devices communicating with one another with negligible latency.  That will be the normal for the next generation. 
« Last Edit: February 22, 2017, 04:47:57 AM by Admin »

PonoBill

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 18559
    • View Profile
    • Ponohouse is for sale. Great house but it's time for new adventures
Re: The road to 5G
« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2017, 10:01:05 AM »
5G is skynet. Stand by.
Ponohouse is for sale: http://www.ponohouse.com
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

tautologies

  • Teahupoo Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 1671
    • View Profile
Re: The road to 5G
« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2017, 02:43:22 PM »

I did a presentation on the future of 5G at one of the large research institutions and wrote a chapter in a book about the next internet. 5G is the starting point. It enables sooo many of the most forecasted technologies.

Direct revenue from 5G will be in the order of $4-5 trillion in 15 years employing around 20-24 million people. Indirect revenue...revenue from services that bases itself on 5G will be about $10-14 Trillion at the same time. Nokia views it is their chance to turn the corner, and most large tech companies are pouring money into it.

They have started field testing the networks...Samsung has committed to deploying it in the next olympics....all this and the standard isn't even done yet.

In the chapter I developed a few different scenarios for 5G...it can become skynet...but it can also fundamentally change societies in positive ways. 
To me it doesn't get more interesting.

PonoBill

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 18559
    • View Profile
    • Ponohouse is for sale. Great house but it's time for new adventures
Re: The road to 5G
« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2017, 08:05:52 PM »
I'm kind of looking forward to an AI taking over, in the same way that driving on California roads makes me hungry for autonomous cars. Couldn't be worse. I think ten years from now autonomous cars will have very cheap insurance while setting your hands on the wheel will cost you a big premium. Might be twenty, but kids being born today will probably never have a driving license.
Ponohouse is for sale: http://www.ponohouse.com
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

Admin

  • Administrator
  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 3784
    • View Profile
    • StandUpZone
    • Email
Re: The road to 5G
« Reply #4 on: February 23, 2017, 02:02:11 AM »
I did a presentation on the future of 5G at one of the large research institutions and wrote a chapter in a book about the next internet.

Hi Taut,

Please post a link to the book.  I would love to read what you wrote.

I am with you on the level of interest.  It is easy to think phone data and movie download speed, but if the speeds that are being talked about are achieved, that stuff becomes small taters. 

Surgeons operating remotely to the (already in action) robots worldwide, all actions logged to remote data sources for learning.  Automobiles, boats, planes, drones, all communicating with one another and adjusting with negligible latency.  VR and AR that moves beyond games.  Unmanned everything.  Machine learning hits overdrive.  Every article I have read contains a line similar to, "we expect disruptive products in all categories". 

Man, I wish Verizon were testing in Hood River.  :)

When you think of the major hurdles to advancement in this realm, 5G has the potential to move network issues from the front of the line to the back end.  Next up, batteries.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2017, 02:45:03 AM by Admin »

yugi

  • Teahupoo Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 1557
    • View Profile
Re: The road to 5G
« Reply #5 on: February 23, 2017, 03:30:51 AM »
What's the word on when Satellite communications will get more bandwidth and lower latency?

PonoBill

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 18559
    • View Profile
    • Ponohouse is for sale. Great house but it's time for new adventures
Re: The road to 5G
« Reply #6 on: February 23, 2017, 06:48:09 AM »
I don't think batteries are next up. I think they're now. the entire structure and operating mode of batteries is being rethought. There's a guy named Luke Workman who is a bit nuts, but very interesting who is theorizing stuff like the wings of passenger jets being big batteries. Not containers for cells but rather the entire wing being a battery structure. If that gets done it makes electric jets a practical step.

When batteries get good, electric power completely trumps IC engines. The power of electric motors is almost limitless compared to IC. The thermodynamic efficiency limit for an IC engine is about 40 percent--you have to reject 750 horsepower in heat load to have a 500hp IC motor. A typical 3phase electric motor has a thermal efficiency greater than 90 percent. 50 hp of heat to reject. It's only because gasoline has such a high energy content that IC motors are currently dominant. All it took to make a Tesla 90D into one of the world's quickest cars was some fiddling with the fuses. The 100D is even quicker. Pretty clear where the advantage lies when a full size, fully optioned, comfortable, extraordinarily safe five passenger (potentially seven) luxury car can out drag all but three of the world's most expensive two seat sports cars. And does it all with stock motors a little bigger than a coffee can.

I'm looking with lust at the new batteries coming out of the gigafactory. Four volts at nearly five amp hours out of a battery the size of a shotgun shell. And that's with a relatively stable chemistry that recharges with minimal degradation. I'm going to settle for a recycled battery out of a wrecked chevy volt for my electric TR3, but all this good stuff is in reach. Smartgrids will hugely disrupt the electric utilty business.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2017, 06:54:20 AM by PonoBill »
Ponohouse is for sale: http://www.ponohouse.com
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

PonoBill

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 18559
    • View Profile
    • Ponohouse is for sale. Great house but it's time for new adventures
Re: The road to 5G
« Reply #7 on: February 23, 2017, 07:05:27 AM »
I'm curious about the rollout of 5G. Most of the discussion I've read is about mm bandwidth. that's got to be line of sight and unobstructed, unless I'm missing something. Seems challenging to make that mobile.
Ponohouse is for sale: http://www.ponohouse.com
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

Admin

  • Administrator
  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 3784
    • View Profile
    • StandUpZone
    • Email
Re: The road to 5G
« Reply #8 on: February 23, 2017, 10:37:41 AM »
I'm curious about the rollout of 5G. Most of the discussion I've read is about mm bandwidth. that's got to be line of sight and unobstructed, unless I'm missing something. Seems challenging to make that mobile.

This information is where the discussion (from my entirely outsider perspective) gets really cool.  The info below is clipped from PC Mag.  Th average actual 4G speeds come in at 10 to 20 Mbps.  20 Gbps at 1 ms latency, whew!

5G is a new network system that has much higher speeds and capacity, and much lower latency, than existing cellular systems. The technologies to be used in 5G are still being defined, but there some general themes everyone agrees on.

5G networks will use a type of encoding called OFDM, which is similar to the encoding that LTE uses. The air interface will be designed for much lower latency and greater flexibility than LTE, though.

The new networks can use frequencies as low as old TV channels, or as high as "millimeter wave," which are frequencies that can transmit huge amounts of data, but only a few blocks at a time. 5G may also bring in Wi-Fi as a seamless part of a cellular network, or transmit LTE-encoded data over Wi-Fi frequencies, which is called .

5G networks are much more likely to be networks of small cells, even down to the size of home routers, to be huge towers radiating great distances. Some of that is because of the nature of the frequencies used, but a lot of that is to expand network capacity.

So 5G networks need to be much smarter than previous systems, as they're juggling more, smaller cells that can change size and shape. But even with existing macro cells, Qualcomm says 5G will be able to boost capacity by four times over current systems by leveraging wider bandwidths and advanced antenna technologies.

AT&T has also spoken of "edge intelligence" as being part of its 5G vision. With edge intelligence, the individual small cells have much more autonomy to decide how and where to route data, which can greatly lower latency.

The goal is to have far higher speeds available, and far higher capacity per sector, at far lower latency than 4G. The standards bodies involved are aiming at 20Gbps speeds and 1ms latency, at which point very interesting things begin to happen.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2017, 10:42:21 AM by Admin »

tautologies

  • Teahupoo Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 1671
    • View Profile
Re: The road to 5G
« Reply #9 on: February 23, 2017, 11:43:48 AM »
I'm curious about the rollout of 5G. Most of the discussion I've read is about mm bandwidth. that's got to be line of sight and unobstructed, unless I'm missing something. Seems challenging to make that mobile.

Yeah this is really the genius (by coincidence I might add) of the design of the network. Because it is mm bendwidth the antennas are super small, which means you'll have antennas everywhere. It becomes cheaper to deploy and maintain...which means you'll have mobile antennas indoors and outdoors. Not every antenna needs to be connected to a line, you can employ meshes and then connect. So overall coverage will be better, and when you are out of range, there are other ways to connect (technology - to - be -developed...but its there in principle). There is an insanely big opportunity to become a node provider, what I would say is a layer between service and app provider.

Even the telcos are excited because the nodes themselves becomes programmable and intelligent, which means upgrades are cheaper and can be automated...where now they are processes that takes years, it will be down to days or hours (assuming policy makers get their shit together  ehe). The intelligent nodes is something that really adds a huge value to the network, and it makes the internet into the network that it was supposed to be in the firs place...when you put blockchain technologies together with 5G the network itself takes on another new dimension.

5G is literally what enables self-driving cars, VR, AR, real IoT, M2M communication, AI, etc etc. It is such a fundamental building block that I think there is a chance it can start changing the fabric of society.
 
This is exactly also why we need an enabled FCC with a good foundation and commitment to net neutrality. If not it will hinder the free market and deployment of 5G technologies. It is critical that we have tools to flatten anti-competitive behaviors...or else other countries will take the lead.

Admin I'll send you a PM. The book is super expensive.

Latency isn't just much lower...it is 1ms. It will reduce battery use by a factor of 10, increase the bandwidth. In terms of the bandwidth the initial aim is what Pono talks about, but the end is about 100Gbit connections. They getting close to 20Gbps in a moving car already...and that is only the public information. 

Having been involved in research in the field for some time and worked with implementors and policymakers I've seen a lot of different reactions to bandwidth and a lot people thinks about their future need in terms of todays service offers...but forgetting that a self driving car generates 1 Gigabyte of data every second....and that is just your car...so it generates the equivalent to a full hd movie in 1080p every 4 seconds.


lucabrasi

  • Teahupoo Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 1649
    • View Profile
Re: The road to 5G
« Reply #10 on: February 23, 2017, 12:32:14 PM »
I got no clue how all that works in the slightest but I do remember around the time of the analog to digital tv changeover and along with the recession that one of the programs Obama was talking about was internet through some of those airways. It was him actually talking about it I remember. Seems I only saw one thing about it and on television and not online but it seems that even with the reasoning of the changeover being that those airwaves were being freed up for emergency signals for many different things along those lines but many would still be open and be able to be utilized in other ways. High speed internet among them. I think they thought it was doable with lots of kinks to work out, it was a ways down the line before it could roll out, and it was some of that federal recession money being used to get it going. Seemed a good idea to me if nothing else to get it something out there for people without a good way to get it now.

Admin

  • Administrator
  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 3784
    • View Profile
    • StandUpZone
    • Email
Re: The road to 5G
« Reply #11 on: February 25, 2017, 03:56:54 AM »
Yeah this is really the genius (by coincidence I might add) of the design of the network. Because it is mm bendwidth the antennas are super small, which means you'll have antennas everywhere. It becomes cheaper to deploy and maintain...which means you'll have mobile antennas indoors and outdoors. Not every antenna needs to be connected to a line, you can employ meshes and then connect. So overall coverage will be better, and when you are out of range, there are other ways to connect (technology - to - be -developed...but its there in principle). There is an insanely big opportunity to become a node provider, what I would say is a layer between service and app provider.

This is the distinction that sounds amazing.  When functional this should also offer incredible redundancy.  For nodes, do you envision consumer devices having a role there (opt-in of course)?  That seems like a natural, if feasible, in the future.  The hive coming to life.

PonoBill

  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 18559
    • View Profile
    • Ponohouse is for sale. Great house but it's time for new adventures
Re: The road to 5G
« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2017, 07:38:31 AM »
Hmmm. Feasible for devices to mesh, but mm wavelengths are truly line-of-sight, even when you pump a lot of power to them, and that doesn't sound like the direction this is taking. There isn't useful scatter around objects, so a tree trunk is probably enough to block connection, and foliage attenuates it. Are there other frequencies contemplated/available for backbone or is that all glass. Lower frequencies offer a lot less information carrying capacity, but I'd imagine multiple nodes make up for that.
Ponohouse is for sale: http://www.ponohouse.com
Foote 10'4X34", SIC 17.5 V1 hollow and an EPS one in Hood River. Foote 9'0" x 31", L41 8'8", 18' Speedboard, etc. etc.

Admin

  • Administrator
  • Cortez Bank Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 3784
    • View Profile
    • StandUpZone
    • Email
Re: The road to 5G
« Reply #13 on: February 25, 2017, 01:13:32 PM »
What's the word on when Satellite communications will get more bandwidth and lower latency?

Hi Yugi,

Are you using satellite internet now?  What type of down/up speeds are you seeing?  How bad is the latency?

Our local options top out at 15 Mbps and a promised "sub-second" latency.  :)

yugi

  • Teahupoo Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 1557
    • View Profile
Re: The road to 5G
« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2017, 05:29:13 PM »
^ Iím considering design option for software to be used in field offices in war zones and remote developing country locations.

The bottom line for current data transmissions of sat phones in use is what Iím given and need to design for. It can be as low as  500 Kbps and up to 1s latency. Possibly as high as you mention. And expensive. Hence why Iím interested in what will be available and when. If itís around the corner it may open options for very different solutions.

 


* Recent Posts

* Recent Topics